LINCOLN HANDICAP TRENDS 2017

The Betway Lincoln Handicap, which will be run at Doncaster on Saturday 1st April, marks the beginning of the British flat turf season. It’s a race steeped in history and is always a lively betting contest, making up the first part of the Spring Double.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 4-7-51
5yo: 3-8-58
6yo: 3-7-49
7yo: 0-3-30
8yo+: 0-5-20
4 to 6 years old have won the last 10 however they have represented approximately 76% of the runners.
There has only been one winner aged older than 6 in the past 20 years.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
horses carrying 9-1 or more: 5-14-81
horses carrying 8-9 to 9-0: 4-12-95
horses carrying 8-8 or less: 1-4-32
9 of 10 winners carried between 8-9 and 9-4.
horses running with a penalty (1-2-12) have a fair record with 3 of 14 making the frame, and 1 winning.
Top weight: 0276047000 (0-2-10)

Official Ratings
horses rated 99 or higher: 4-13-80
horses rated 90 to 98: 6-16-122
horses rated 89 or lower: 0-1-6
7 of 10 winners were officially rated 95 to 102.

Recent/Past Form
5 of 10 winners had won 1 of their last 2 turf starts
8 of 10 winners (last 6) had had 15 or more career starts
9 of 10 winners previously gained 3 to 6 career wins
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicaps
8 of 10 winners won over 1M+ (1 exception was 2nd in previous year's Lincoln and other was 2nd in 1M Listed race)
6 of 10 winners were having their first run of the year (3 of 4 exceptions had been racing in Dubai)
8 of 10 winners had won a race worth 11K+
9 of 10 winners gained their highest grade win in class 2 or 3 (exception won a listed race)

Other Races
Tradeway Shipping Handicap winner (Blair House): 3 (0-1-1)
Wolverhampton Lincoln Trial (Nimr): 30080 (0-1-5)
Betfred Supports Jack Berry House Handicap winner (On This Is Us): 00 (0-0-2)
Previous season's Spring Mile winner (Lord Of The Rock): 0R05 (0-0-4)
Ayrshire Handicap winner (Morando): 8050 (0-0-4)
Record of first 5 from Discovernewmarket.co.uk H'cap to run in this (since 2000): 001014301540020320 (3-6-18)
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Cambridgeshire, finishing 00

Trainers
Richard Fahey (2-5-26) trained the winner in 2012 & 2015 and saddled 2 placed finishers in 2013.
William Haggas (2-1-5) trained the winner in 2007 & 2010 and also the 3rd in 2012 & 5th in 2015.
John Quinn (1-1-6) trained the winners in 2006 & 2013.
John Ryan (1-1-6) & Charlie Appleby (1-0-1) trained the winners in 2014 & 2016 respectively.
Michael Dods (1-0-3) trained the winner in 2011.
David O’Meara (0-4-8) trained the 3rd & 4th in 2014, the runner-up in 2015 and 4th in 2016.

Draw (last 10 runnings at Doncaster 2005-2016)
horses drawn 1 to 7: 3-12-70
horses drawn 8 to 14: 4-7-70
horses drawn 15 or higher: 3-12-70
No strong trends on the draw. The Spring Mile, which takes place earlier on the Lincoln card, can often give pointers as where best to be drawn.

Price
No strong trends on prices, though the 4 winners from 2007 & 2010 were 10/1 or shorter and the last 6 winners were sent off 12/1 or higher.
Favourites (2-1-12) have won 2 of the last 10 runnings, giving a level stakes loss of 1.67.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 4 to 6
- Carrying 8-9 to 9-4
- Officially rated 95 to 102
- Finished in first 3 last time out
- Having first run of the season (or has run at Meydan this year)
- Won over 1M+ (or placed in this race last year)
- Previously gained 3 to 6 career wins
- Previously won 1 to 3 handicaps
- Previously won at class 2 or 3 level (but no higher)
- Won a race worth 11K+
- Finished in first 5 from discovernewmarket.co.uk at Newmarket in October
- Trained by William Haggas, John Quinn, David O’Meara or Richard Fahey