day 4 cheltenham festival trends

CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP TRENDS 2017

The Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup takes place on Friday, 17th March and is highlight of the Festival for many. The fourth day is generally sold out in anticipation of a great spectacle and the race rarely fails to deliver. The key trends for the race seem to point to a horse aged 6 to 9 that finished 1st or 2nd in the King George, Lexus or Denman Chase this season.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)


6yo: 1-1-4
7yo: 1-7-23
8yo: 4-4-40
9yo: 4-3-30
10yo: 0-3-22
11yo: 0-2-9
12yo+: 0-0-3


horses aged 6 to 9 (10-15-97) have won the last 10 runnings.
horses aged 10+ (0-5-34) have gained no wins and 5 places in the last 10 runnings from approximately 26% of the total runners.
3 of 5 placed finishers aged 10+ had won a previous Gold Cup. One had won the previous season’s Aintree Grand National and the other had won that season’s Thyestes Chases.

Breeding


Irish Bred: 5-8-60
French Bred: 3-10-47
British Bred: 1-2-21
German Bred: 1-0-2
American Bred 0-0-1
Irish and French bred horses had dominated prior to 2015, winning the previous 19 renewals between them. Coneygree broke the sequence in 2015, becoming the first GB bred winner since Master Oats in 1995, and German bred Don Cossack won it in 2016.

Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exception were 5th in King George & 6th in Irish Hennessy)
9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times that season (exception had won Hennessy Gold Cup on only run that season)
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 162+ on last completed start (1 exceptions posted an RPR of 177 on penultimate start)
8 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 171+ in last 2 starts
7 of 10 winners had run in 5 to 9 chases in their career
8 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (exceptions were Kauto Star winning it a second time & Coneygree winning it as a novice)
10 of 10 winners had won over 3M+
10 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase
7 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase that season (exceptions were Imperial Commander beaten a short head in grade 1 Betfair Chase, Bobs Worth won Hennessy Gold Cup on only run that season & Lord Windermere in 2014)
4 of 4 second season chaser winners had won a grade 1 novice chase

Previous Cheltenham Form


Highest placed finisher from last year to return: 022FP345P2 (0-4-10)
RSA Chase winner (Blaklion): P195113 (3-1-7)
4M NH Novice Chase winner (Minella Rocco): 9 (0-0-1)
4 of 4 second season chaser winners ran in RSA Chase, finishing 1311
2 of 10 winners ran in Ryanair Chase, finishing 13
1 of 10 winners ran in the previous Gold Cup, finishing 2nd
1 of 10 winners ran in the Queen Mother, in which he fell
8 of 10 winners ran in a chase at the previous Festival (exceptions were Synchronised in 2012, who was placed in Midlands National on the Saturday of Cheltenham week the previous year and Coneygree, who missed previous season due to injury)
7 of 10 winners had previously finished in first 3 at the Festival (1 exception was Kauto Star who fell when favourite in the Queen Mother and other 2 were Synchronised & Coneygree who was having first run at Festival)

Other races


King George winner (Thistlecrack): 121F1P347F (3-2-9)
Denman Chase winner (Native River): 1183F1 (3-1-6)
Lexus Chase winner (Outlander): 01371533 (2-3-8)
JN Wine Champion Chase winner (Valseur Lido): 01331 (2-2-5)
Hennessy Gold Cup winner (Native River): 618201066 (2-1-9)
Punchestown Gold Cup winner (Carlingford Lough): P341 (1-1-4)
Betfair Chase winner (Cue Card): 12PFPPF7F (1-1-9)
Previous season's Feltham winner (Tea For Two): 1 (1-0-1)
Kinloch Brae Chase winner (Sizing John): 01 (1-0-2)
Thyestes Chase winner (Champagne West): 22 (0-2-2)
John Durkan Memorial Chase winner (Djakadam): 2 (0-1-1)
Growise Champion Novice Chase winner (Zabana): 0P29 (0-1-4)
Irish Gold Cup winner (Sizing John): 04P2U94 (0-1-7)
Mildmay Novice Chase winner (Native River): F4 (0-0-2)
Welsh National winner (Native River): PP (0-0-2)
Aintree Bowl winner (Cue Card): 547 (0-0-3)
Charlie Hall Chase winner (Irish Cavalier): PFF (0-0-3)
5 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishing 1151F
3 of 10 winners ran in the Lexus Chase, finishing 117
8 of 10 winners ran in the Lexus or King George that season (5 had won 1 of them)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Betfair Chase, finishing 1U2
3 of 10 winners ran in the Denman Chase, finishing 111
2 of 10 winners ran in JNWine.com Champion Chase, finishing 11
3 of 4 second season chaser winners ran in Hennessy Gold Cup, finishing 118
2 of 4 second season chaser winners ran in Feltham Novice Chase, finishing 13
2 of 4 second season chaser winners ran in Berkshire Novice Chase, finishing 11

Trainers


Paul Nicholls (3-6-25) has trained 3 of the last 10 winners of this and seen over a third of his runners make the places since 2007.
Jonjo O’Neill (1-2-6) won this in 2012 with Synchronised and has also filled 2 other places.
Gordon Elliot (1-0-1) won it with Don Cossack in 2016 and Jim Culloty (1-0-2) won it last year with Lord Windermere.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-4) trained Imperial Commander to win in 2010.
Willie Mullins (0-5-11) has found 5 places from 11 runners, including the runners-up spot in past 4 runnings.
David Bridgwater (0-2-4) has saddled The Giant Bolster to finish 2nd, 4th & 3rd and pull up in past 4 runnings.
Irish trained runners (2-6-27) won the race in 2005 and filled the first 3 positions in 2006 but then struggled in next few years, failing to fill a single place between 2007 & 2012. Things have brightened up recently though as Sir Des Champs finished 2nd in 2013 & Lord Windermere & On His Own finished 1-2 in 2014, Djakadam & Road To Riches finished 2nd & 3rd in 2015 while the Irish filled first 4 places last year.

Price
9 of 10
winners came from the first 3 in the betting
Prior to Lord Windermere’s win last year, there has been no winner priced bigger than 8/1 since 2000. However in the past 10 years horses priced 14/1 or bigger have filled 7 of 30 places (1 winner, 2 seconds and 4 thirds).
Favourites (5-3-10) have taken 5 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 6.50.

Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 6 to 9
- Had 5 to 11 career chase starts (2 to 5 this season)
- Finished in first 2 in all chase starts over 2M 6F+ this season
- Second or third season chaser (or previous winner of Gold Cup)
- Won last time out and posted RPR of 162+
- Posted an RPR of 171+ in last 2 chase starts
- Won over 3M+
- Previously won a grade 1 chase (ideally this season)
- Finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase at 2016 Festival (ideally the 2016 RSA)
- Finished in first 2 in Hennessy Gold Cup, Betfair and/or Denman Chase
- Finished 1st or 2nd in either the Lexus or King George this season
- From first 3 in the betting (favourite does especially well)
- Trained by Paul Nicholls, Willie Mullins or Gordon Elliot

TRIUMPH HURDLE TRENDS 2017

The JCB Triumph Hurdle kicks off the final day of the Cheltenham Festival. The race has changed slightly in recent years as the size of the field has decreased with the introduction of the Fred Winter handicap hurdle for 4yos. In the past 10 years the race has been tended to be won by a horse prominent in the market and come from one of the big British yards, though 3 of last 4 winners of the race were trained in Ireland.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age

Race for 4yos

Gender

Fillies (0-2-12) have gained 2 place from 12 runners in past 10 runnings and haven’t won this since 2000.
Since 2000, the record of fillies that that posted an RPR of 130+ last time out: 120P2542 (1-3-8)

Breeding

Irish bred: 6-9-65
French bred: 3-8-57
British bred: 1-2-47
USA bred: 0-1-5
German bred: 0-0-4
8 of 10 winners were by a group 1-winning sire (1 exception’s sire hadn’t run in a group 1 and other was a group 2 winner, beaten a short head in Queen Anne)
All 3 French bred winners were trained by Nicky Henderson, as well as 3 of the other 8 placed.
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners ran the past 18 to 50 days
6 of 10 winners won last time out (3 of 4 exceptions finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th in grade 1 Spring Juvenile)
8 of 10 winners had won at class 3 or higher (exceptions 2nd & 4th in a grade 1 last time)
7 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race 7+ lengths (3 exceptions gained their one hurdles win by over 2 lengths)
10 of 10 winners won at least half their hurdle starts
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 132+ in one or both of last 2 runs
9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 6 times over hurdles (exception won grade 2 Adonis on one hurdles run)
7 of 10 winners had run on the flat (2 of 3 exceptions made their racecourse debut over hurdles)
5 of 5 winners that ran on flat in Britain or Ireland were officially rated 84 or higher on flat
6 of 7 British-trained winners had won a hurdle at Newbury, Kempton or Market Rasen
The 10 winners had collectively run in 29 hurdles races prior to winning this, they finished in first 3 in 27 of those 29 starts (1 unplaced effort was on debut and the other was a 4th in a grade 1).

Other Races

Finesse Juvenile Hurdle winner (Defi De Seuil): 1228361 (2-3-7)
Adonis Hurdle winner: 411960 (2-0-6)
Spring Juvenile Hurdle winner (Mega Fortune): 07390221353 (1-4-10)
JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial winner (Sdefi De Seuil): 1949230 (1-3-7)
Betfred 5K BTO Cash Hurdle winner (Final Choice): 132 (1-2-3)
Prestbury Juvenile Novice Hurdle winner (Defi De Seuil): 127426 (1-2-6)
Summit Juvenile Hurdle winnner (Cliffs Of Dover): 01 (1-0-2)
Bar One Racing Juvenile Hurdle winner (Landofhopeandglory): 01P (1-0-3)
Federation Of Bloodstock Agents Juvenile Hurdle winner (Cosmeapolitan): P10796 (1-0-6)
Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle winner (Bapaume): 02046832 (0-3-8)
Future Champions Finale Juvenile Hurdle winner (Defi De Seuil): 227 (0-2-3)
Festival Hospitality On Sale 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle winner (Dakota Moirette): 3020B (0-2-5)
Scottish Triumph Hurdle Trial winner (Forth Bridge): 043837 (0-2-6)
Value Cabs 3yo Hurdle winner (Mega Fortune): P3 (0-1-2)
Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle winner (Cliffs Of Dover): 508365 (0-1-6)
Betfred Home of Goals Galore Juvenile Hurdle winner (Coeur De Lion): P0 (0-0-2)
32Red Juvenile Hurdle winner (Fidux): 60 (0-0-2)
32Red Introductory Juvenile Hurdle winner (Charli Parcs): 649 (0-0-3)
Chatteris Fen Trophy Juvenile Hurdle winner (Divin Bere): 4P70 (0-0-4)
4 of 10 winners (4 of last 5) ran in Spring Juvenile Hurdle last time, finishing 3124
2 of 7 British-trained winners ran in the Adonis Hurdle last time, finishing 11
2 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Wendsleydale Juvenile Hurdle, finishing 22
2 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Finesse Juvenile Hurdle, finishing 11
3 of 7 British-trained winners gained first hurdles win at Market Rasen
2 of 7 British-trained winners gained first hurdles win at Newbury
All 5 Irish-trained winners in past 20 years had finished in first 4 in Spring Juvenile on previous start

Trainers

British-trained runners: 7-12-126
Irish-trained runners: 3-8-51
French-trained runners: 0-0-1
Between 2003 & 2012, British-trained runners had won all 10 runnings, however Irish-trained runners won the 2013, 2014 & 2016 renewals. The bigger British yards have fairly dominated this race.
Nicky Henderson (3-4-14) has trained the 3 of last 10 winners, and saddled the first 3 home in 2015.
Paul Nicholls (2-2-18), Alan King (1-3-15) & Philip Hobbs (0-1-2) have each trained 2 of the last 13 winners.
Gordon Elliot (1-0-5) & John Quinn (1-0-6) trained the winners in 2014 & 2012 respectively.
Aidan O’Brien (1-0-2) was the official trainer of Ivanovich Gorbatov in 2016, but in reality it was Joseph who trained him to win this.
Willie Mullins (0-3-16) trained the winner in 2002 but struggled in the next 13 years. He did saddle the 2nd, 3rd & 4th in 2016.

Price

Since the introduction of the Fred Winter Juvenile H’cap Hurdle to the Festival in 2005 this race has been won by one of the first 4 in the betting 9 of 11 years. The 2 winners to be priced 10/1 or bigger had been beaten in the Spring Juvenile on previous start.
Favourites (2-4-10) have only won 2 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 2.50.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Sired by a group 1 winner
- Posted an RPR of 132+ last time out
- Won last time out (or placed in a grade 1)
- Run 2 to 6 times over hurdles
- Won at least half their hurdles starts and never finished outside first 3 when completing
- Won at class 3 or higher
- Won or placed in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle (or having first run in a graded hurdle)
- Won a hurdles race by 7 or more lengths
- Has run on the flat & officially rated 84+
- Won the Adonis Juvenile Hurdle
- Finished in first 4 in Wensleydale and/or Spring Juvenile Hurdle
- Won a Juvenile Hurdle at Newbury, Market Rasen or Kempton
- Trained by Nicky Henderson, Alan King, Philip Hobbs, Paul Nicholls or in Ireland
- From first 4 in the betting

ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS 2017

The Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle, which is run over 3 miles, was first run as a grade 2 in 2005 but was elevated to grade 1 status in 2008. There will be many horses that will hold entries in this as well as the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle and so the picture for this race will become clearer once the declarations for the Neptune come out.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:

Age
5yo: 1-5-38
6yo: 5-9-84
7yo: 3-3-41
8yo+: 1-3-16
9yo: 0-0-2
8 of 10 winners were aged 6 or 7, though that age group represented 69% of the total runners, so not surprising. The two previous 5yo winners of this were both French bred.

Gender
Mares (0-1-5) have gained 1 place from their 5 runners, all of whom were priced 12/1 or above.

Breeding
Irish bred: 7-15-120
French bred: 2-2-30
British bred: 1-2-28
German bred: 0-1-3
Irish bred have won 7 of 10 however they have represented 66.3% of total runners whereas French bred horses have a proportionally better record, winning 2 of 10 from 16.6% of total runners.
King's Theatre progeny: 10P612F8 (2-1-8) - one other winner out of a King's Theatre mare
Milan progeny: 21 (1-1-2)
Oscar progeny: 60P8412 (1-1-7)
Presenting progeny: 970013P (1-1-7)
Martaline progeny: 010 (1-0-3)

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 last time (1 exception was 4th in the grade 2 Boyne Hurdle against seasoned hurdlers & other was 3rd in a grade 2 Slaney novice hurdle)
10 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in last 2 starts
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 145+ last time (2 exceptions posted career high RPR of 139)
8 of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times over hurdles (2 exceptions ran in 14)
8 of 10 winners had won a graded hurdle (2 exceptions finished in first 3 in a grade 2)
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+
10 of 10 winners had not run on the flat
7 of 10 winners had won a bumper (1 exception was 2nd in a bumper on debut and other 2 made racecourse debut in a hurdles race)
5 of 6 British-trained winners had won at Cheltenham (1 exception was having first course start)
4 of 4 Irish-trained winners had won a hurdles race at Galway or Limerick

Other Races
Classic Novice Hurdle winner (Wholestone): 1F11 (3-0-4)
Bristol Novice Hurdle winner (Wholestone: 41P2FP1 (2-1-7)
Dorans Pride Novice Hurdle winner (Penhill): 1PU1 (2-0-4)
Paddy Power Acca Insurance EBF Novice Hurdle winner (Blood Crazed Tiger): 2P8U1 (1-1-5)
Prestige Novice Hurdle winner (The Worlds End): 81 (1-0-2)
Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle winner (Let's Dance): 22 (0-2-2)
Leamington Novice Hurdle winner (Willoughby Court): 832 (0-2-3)
Navan Novice Hurdle winner (Death Duty): P2F3 (0-2-4)
I.N.H. Stallion Owners EBF Maiden Hurdle winner (Monalee): 3 (0-1-1)
Surehaul Mercedes-Benz Novice Hurdle winner (Monalee): 3 (0-1-1)
Download The Coral Mobile App Maiden Hurdle winner (The Worlds End): 42 (0-1-2)
Wrights Of Campden Maiden Hurdle winner (Willoughby Court): P4 (0-0-2)
Eventsec Maiden Hurdle winner (Monbeg Notorious): 94 (0-0-2)
Monksfield Novice Hurdle winner (Death Duty): P7 (0-0-2)
W.T. O'Grady Memorial EBF Novice Hurdle winner (The Storyteller): 478 (0-0-3)
Lawlor's Hotel Slaney Novice Hurdle winner (Death Duty): PF0 (0-0-3)
Hyde Novice Hurdle winner (Peregrine Run): P4P (0-0-3)
Kerry Group Stayers Novice Hurdle winner (Rathnure Rebel): 06P77 (0-0-5)
River Don Novice Hurdle winner (Constantine Bay): 8587P4 (0-0-6)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Hyde Novice Hurdle, finishing 223 (none of last 6)
3 of 6 British-trained winners ran in the Classic Novice Hurdle, finishing 111
2 of 6 British-trained winners ran in the Bristol Novice Hurdle, finishing 11
2 of 4 Irish-trained winners ran in Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle, finishing 22

Trainers
Nicky Henderson (1-1-7) trained the first 2 home in 2011 while Alan King (1-1-7) has also gained a win and a place from his runners in this.
Harry Fry (1-0-2), Noel Meade (1-0-5) & Rebecca Curtis (1-0-8) have each trained the winner in past 4 years.
Willie Mullins (0-4-27) has had filled a place in 4 of last 8 renewals, although 3 of last 4 favourites to be beaten in this race came from the Mullins yard and all 7 of his runners in 2016 were unplaced.
Paul Nicholls (0-3-9) has filled 3 places from 9 runners.
Gordon Elliot (0-2-3) saddled No More Heroes to finish an unlucky 3rd in 2015 and Fagan to be 33/1 second in 2016.
David Pipe (0-1-5), Colin Tizzard (0-1-6) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-1-7) have all saddled a placed finisher in one of the last 6 runnings.
Irish trained horses (4-8-55) have won 4 of last 10 from approximately 30.3% of total runners. They have been responsible for 2nd in 2016, first 4 home in 2015 and the 1st & 3rd in 2014.

Price
No strong trend on prices, with 6 winners going off at 9/1 or shorter, however 4 of last 7 winners were sent off at 33/1, 33/1, 14/1 & 11/1.
Favourites (3-2-10) have won 3 of the 10 runnings but show a level stakes loss of 2.37.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the 10 previous runnings you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 6 or 7 (or a 5yo French bred)
- Irish or French bred
- Ideally sired by King's Theatre, Oscar or Milan
- Finished in first 2 last time out
- Posted an RPR of 145+ last time
- Has had 3 to 6 runs over hurdles
- Has won a graded hurdle
- Won over 2M 4F+
- Finished in first 3 in Hyde Novice Hurdle
- Finished in first 2 in Bristol, Classic and/or Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle
- Had not run under flat rules (ideally has won a bumper)
- Course winner (or trained in Ireland)
- Trained in Ireland & won a hurdle at Limerick or Galway
- Treat Willie Mullins runners with caution