AINTREE BOWL CHASE TRENDS 2017

The Betfred Bowl Steeplechase is one of three grade 1 races featuring on the opening day of the 2017 Aintree Festival, which kicks off on Thursday 6th April. The 3M 1F chase was upgraded to grade 1 status in 2010 and so will attract a good few of this year’s Gold Cup protagonists. In the last 10 years, Kauto Star, Denman, Imperial Commander & Denman, again, have all been beaten in this after running well in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. It can often pay to oppose horses that had a hard race at Cheltenham.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-0-2
7yo: 2-7-17
8yo: 3-5-21
9yo: 2-2-18
10yo: 3-0-9
11yo+: 0-0-5
The last 10 winners were aged 7 to 10
4 of 5 winners aged 9 or 10 had all finished in first 3 in previous year’s Betfred Bowl Chase, other was 2nd in previous year’s Melling Chase

Gender
The two mares (0-1-1) to run in this race since 2000 have finished 2nd.

Breeding
French Bred: 5-6-26
Irish Bred: 3-6-30
British Bred: 2-2-15
German Bred: 0-0-1
No very strong trend on breeding.

Recent/Past Form
6 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 on last completed start (3 exceptions unplaced in Gold Cup)
9 of 10 winners had run in past 40 days
9 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 162+ in last 2 chase starts
9 of 10 winners had won at least 4 chases (exception had finished 2nd in 5 grade 1 chases)
9 of 10 winners had run in 10 or more chases in their career
10 of 10 winners had won over 3M+
10 of 10 winners had won a graded chase (6 had won a grade 1 chase)
9 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a grade 1 chase that season (5 had won one that season)

Other races
Betfair Chase winner (Cue Card): 25311 (2-2-5)
Lexus Chase winner (Outlander): 212 (1-2-3)
Ascot Chase winner (Cue Card): 2P (0-1-2)
Highest placed finisher from King George to run in this: 123315111 (5-1-9)
Highest placed finisher from Gold Cup to run in this: 12FF524133 (2-3-10) 5 of these 10 were sent off favourite
5 of 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last time, finishing 2647F
2 of 10 winners ran in Ryanair Chase last time, finishing 12
6 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishing 224111
5 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Aintree Bowl, finishing 33331
4 of 10 winners (4 of last 6) ran in the Betfair Chase, finishing 4311
3 of 10 winners (3 of last 7) ran in the Lexus, finishing 162
3 of 10 winners ran in the Hennessy Gold Cup, finishing 133
2 of 10 winners ran in the BetBright Cup, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's RSA Chase, finishing 62
2 of 10 winners ran in Charlie Hall Chase, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Punchestown Gold Cup, finishing 14

Trainers
Paul Nicholls (3-3-12) won 3 of the last 7 runnings, including 2 with Silviniaco Conti, but he’s saddled 4 beaten favourite in past 10 years (all 4 were sent off shorter than 6/4).
Colin Tizzard (1-0-1) trained Cue Card to win this in 2016, following a fall in the Gold Cup.
Irish-trained runners (2-2-11) have won 2 of last 5 and accounted for 2nd & 3rd in 2016. Both winners ran in Lexus Chase that season. Willie Mullins (0-2-2) saddled 2nd & 3rd in 2016, his first runners in the race he won it in 2002 with Florida Pearl.

Price
6 of last 7 winners were sent off 7/2 or shorter, however there have been winners at 50/1 & 12/1 in past 10 years.
There have been 3 winning favourites in the past 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 2.55.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 7 or 8 (or finished in first 3 in a 2016 Aintree Bowl or Melling Chase)
- Had at least 10 career chase starts (won at least 4)
- Finished in the first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 chase last time or unplaced in Gold Cup
- Posted an RPR of 162+ in one or both of last 2 chase starts
- Won over 3M+
- Won a graded chase (ideally a grade 1)
- Finished in first 4 in a grade 1 chase this season
- Finished in first 6 in Gold Cup, Ryanair Chase or bypassed Cheltenham
- Finished the first 4 in King George, Betfair, Lexus Chase and/or Hennessy Gold Cup
- Finished in first 3 in Betbright Cup, Charlie Hall and/or 2016 Aintree Bowl
- Trained by Paul Nicholls or in Ireland