PUNCHESTOWN GOLD CUP TRENDS 2017

Strangely before 1999 there was no grade 1 chase for Gold Cup horses at Punchestown but now the Coral Punchestown Gold Cup is the highlight of the meeting for many race fans. The race, which takes place on Wednesday 26th April, is run over 3M 1F and Sizing John may look to follow up his Cheltenham Gold Cup success in this. Both previous Cheltenham Gold Cup winners, to run in this, were victorious.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 1-1-3
7yo: 2-2-14
8yo: 4-8-21
9yo: 2-5-25
10yo: 1-1-18
11yo+: 0-2-8
horses aged 6 to 8: 7-11-38
horses aged 9 or older: 3-8-51
7 of 10 runnings of this race have been won by horses aged 6 to 8. All 3 winners aged 9 or 10 were Irish bred.

Breeding
Irish bred: 4-14-59
French bred: 4-5-20
British bred: 1-0-7
German bred: 1-0-3
Irish bred horses have won just 4 of last 10 but they have represented 66.3% of the total runners.
French bred horses have won 4 of last 10 from 22.5% of the total runners. All 4 French bred winners were aged 6 to 8.

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time out (both exceptions down the field in Cheltenham Gold Cup & Ryanair)
9 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days
9 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 156+ in 1 or both of last 2 runs
10 of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times since September (exception ran 7 times)
9 of 10 winners had won that season
9 of 10 winners had run 6 to 15 times over fences (exception had run in 21)
9 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (exception was 4th season chaser)
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 7F+ (1 exception had not run over further than 2M 6F)
7 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 (3 exceptions had finished 2nd or 3rd in a grade 1)
7 of 10 winners were course winners (2 of 3 exceptions were having first course start while other was 7th in previous year's Gold Cup)

Other races
Defending Punchestown Gold Cup winner (Carlingford Lough): 1P25 (1-1-4)
Record of horses who finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th in Cheltenham Gold Cup: 514P218532 (2-2-10)
Irish Gold Cup winner (Sizing John): 8P311 (2-1-5)
John Durkan Memorial winner (Djakadam): 3U412 (1-2-5)
Previous season's Flogas Chase winner (Outlander): 431 (1-1-3)
Troytown Chase winner (Empire Of Dirt): 1 (1-0-1)
Cheltenham Gold Cup winner (Sizing John): 1 (1-0-1)
Irish Daily Star Chase winner (Sadler's Risk): P1 (1-0-2)
Previous season's Irish Hennessy GC winner (Carlingford Lough): 861 (1-0-3)
Previous season's Growise Champion Novice Chase winner (Zabana): PPP1 (1-0-4)
Lexus Chase winner (Outlander): 33 (0-1-2)
Thyestes Chase winner (Champagne West): 82 (0-1-2)
Clonmel Oil winner (Alelchi Inois): 3UF (0-1-3)
Charlie Hall Chase winner (Irish Cavalier): 44 (0-0-2)
5 of 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing 83824
4 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Hennessy Gold Cup, finishing 2511
2 of 10 winners ran in the John Durkan Memorial, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in the Lexus, finishing 46
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in Melling Chase last time, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in this race previous year, finishing 17
2 of 10 winners ran in the Kinloch Brae, finishing 11
3 of 6 second season chaser winners (last 3) ran in previous season's Growise Novice Chase, finishing 1F4
3 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in Ryanair Chase, finishing 063
3 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in previous season's Flogas Novice Chase, finishing 612
2 of 6 second season chaser winners (last 2) ran in the previous season's RSA Chase, finishing FF
2 of 3 British-trained winners ran in BetBright Cup Chase, finishing F3

Trainers
Willie Mullins (2-6-16) has won the race three times, in 2002 with Florida Pearl and in 2013 & 2014 with Sir Des Champs & Boston Bob. He also saddled Djakadam to finish runner-up in 2015 & 2016.
John Kiely (1-0-1) & Gordon Elliot (1-0-2) have been responsible for the past 2 winners.
British-based trainers (3-3-28) don’t actually have that good a record in this race, especially when you remove Neptune Collonges’ 2 runs in the race, their record becomes just 1 winner and 3 place from 26 runners (10 of those 26 were sent off shorter than 7/1 and 8 of those 10 were unplaced including the 3 of last 6 favourites).

Price
There have been shocks in 4 of last 7 years with the winners going off 12/1, 14/1, 20/1 & 20/1.
Favourites (4-3-10) have won 4 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 1.28.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- French or German bred aged 6 to 8
- Finished in first 4 last time (or unplaced in a grade 1 at Cheltenham)
- Posted RPR of 156+ last time
- Ran in past 40 days
- Run 3 to 6 times this season (winning at least once)
- Run 6 to 15 times over fences in their career
- Second or third season chaser
- Won over 2M 7F+
- Won a grade 1 chase (2nd or 3rd at the very least)
- Previous course winner (or having first start here)
- Finished in first 4 in the Cheltenham Gold Cup or Melling Chase last time
- Finished in first 5 in Lexus, Irish Hennessy and/or John Durkan Memorial
- Second season chaser that ran in 2016 RSA, Arkle, Growise Champion and/or Flogas Novice Chase
- Trained in Ireland