ANNIVERSARY HURDLE TRENDS 2017

The Doom Bar Anniversary 4YO Juvenile Hurdle is the second race of this year’s Aintree Grand National meeting on Thursday 6th April. The race is usually dominated by horses that ran in the Triumph Hurdle, though in recent years the Fred Winter has also been a good trial, along with the Adonis Hurdle.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
Race for 4yos

Gender
Fillies (2-0-6) have gained 2 wins from 6 runners in past 10 years. 4 of 5 winning fillies in the past 20 years had bypassed Cheltenham, exception was Apple’s Jade (2nd in Triumph on previous start).

Breeding
French bred: 5-6-31
Irish bred: 3-8-39
USA bred: 1-0-5
British bred: 1-6-29
Other: 0-0-6
7 of last 11 winners were French or American bred.
British bred horses finally won this in 2012, after a long drought, though British breds represented the first 3 in the betting that year. They had previously had a very poor record in the race, failing to win any of the previous 10.
9 of 10 winners were sired by a group winner on the flat (6 sired by a group 1 winner)
8 of 10 winners were sired by a horse that finished in first 3 in group 1 on flat

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners ran in the past 40 days
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (exception 5th in Fred Winter)
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 136+ last time
9 of 10 winners had run 3 to 8 times over hurdles (exception won Adonis & Triumph Hurdle on 2 previous hurdles starts)
8 of 10 winners had won at least twice over hurdles
9 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race 5+ lengths (1 exception won his 2 starts, both in graded company)
7 of 10 winners had previously contested a grade 1 (3 exceptions were placed in Fred Winter or Adonis Hurdles)
9 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
6 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
8 of 10 winners had run on the flat (2 exceptions made racecourse debut in a French hurdle)

Other Races
Finesse Juvenile Hurdle winner (Defi De Seuil): 11515 (3-0-5)
Triumph Hurdle winner (Defi De Seuil): 12122 (2-3-5)
Finale Juvenile Novice Hurdle winner (Defi De Seuil): 1663 (1-1-4)
Triumph Hurdle Trial winner (Defi De Seuil): 13466 (1-1-5)
Prestbury Juvenile Novice Hurdle winner (Defi De Seuil): 1F (1-0-2)
Scottish Triumph Hurdle winner (Forth Bridge): 306 (0-1-3)
Fred Winter H'cap Hurdle winner (Flying Tiger): 3404 (0-1-4)
6 of 10 winners ran in the Triumph Hurdle last time out, finishing 121332 (2 exceptions were 3rd & 5th in Fred Winter & other was 2nd in Supreme)
5 of 8 British-trained winners ran in Adonis Juvenile Hurdle, finishing 11132
3 of 8 British-trained winners ran in the Finesse Juvenile hurdle, finishing 111
2 of 10 winners ran in the Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle, finishing 12
Last 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Knight Frank Juvenile, finishing 211

Trainers
Nicky Henderson (1-1-9) trained Punjabi to finish 2nd in 2007, Binocular to win it in 2008 and was a bit unlucky to see Grandouet get brought down when going well in 2011.
Gordon Elliot (0-2-4) has seen his 4 runners finish 3rd-4th-2nd-8th.
Dan Skelton (0-1-1), Philip Hobbs (0-1-2) & John Quinn (0-1-3) have all saddled 1 placed finisher in past 10 years.
Irish trained horses (2-3-11) have gained 2 win and 3 places from approximately 10% of the total runners. Both Gordon Elliot-trained runners to make the frame had run in the Scottish Triumph Hurdle, while both Irish-trained winners had won Knight Frank Juvenile at Leopardstown.

Price
5 of 10 winners were sent off favourite, however in the past 6 years there have been winners at 13/2, 10/1, 16/1 & 40/1.
Favourites (5-3-10) have won 6 of the last 11, giving a level stakes profit of 2.79 since 2007.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- French or USA bred
- Sired by a group winner on the flat (that won/placed in group 1)
- Raced on the flat (rated 80+) or debut in hurdle in France
- Run 3 to 8 times over hurdles (or unbeaten)
- Won at least twice over hurdles
- Finished in first 3 in Triumph Hurdle last time (posting RPR of 138+)
- Previously finished in first 3 in a grade 1 or 2
- Won a hurdles race by 5 or more lengths (or unbeaten over hurdles)
- First 3 in Finesse, Adonis and/or Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle
- Trained by Nicky Henderson or Gordon Elliot
- Trained in Ireland and finished in first 2 in Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle
- Favourite has a strong record