RANDOX HEALTH FOXHUNTERS CHASE TRENDS 2017
The Randox Health Foxhunters Chase takes place on the opening day of Aintree’s Grand National meeting, on Thursday 6th April. The race is run over the Grand National fences, over a trip of 2M 5½F and is restricted to amateur riders. horses that have fared well in the Cheltenham Foxhunters Chase have struggled to repeat the feat here.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
7yo: 0-2-7
8yo: 0-1-19
9yo: 1-3-38
10yo: 2-5-47
11yo: 4-5-58
12yo: 2-2-41
13yo+: 1-2-30
9 of 10 winners were aged 10 or older, though they have accounted for 73.3% of total runners.
2 winners aged 12 were Scots Grey (placed in 4 class 1 chases & had been rated over 140 over fences) and Cloudy Lane (grade 2 chase winner that had formerly been rated over 150 over fences).
The one 13yo winner was Tartan Snow (at 100/1), who then finished 2nd as a 14yo. Clearly a horse that thrived over the Aintree fences.
horses aged 8 or younger have gained no wins and just 3 places from 26 runners.
Breeding
Irish Bred: 6-9-146
British Bred: 3-3-40
French Bred: 1-8-48
Other: 0-0-6
Irish bred runners have accounted for 60.8% of the total runner, so their return of 6 win is no better than average.
British bred horses have won 3 of last 10 from just 16.7% of total runners.
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last completed start (exception won on penultimate start)
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 130+ on last completed chase start
9 of 10 winners won 1 of their last 2 runs
10 of 10 winners ran in the past 40 days
10 of 10 winners had gained 1 or 2 wins that season
7 of 10 winners had run in no more than 8 hunter chases (other 3 had run in 12 to 19)
9 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or above chase (exception trained in Ireland & had won a listed hurdle)
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+
5 of 7 British-trained winners had won a chase at Newbury and/or Haydock
Cheltenham Festival
Cheltenham Foxhunters Chase winner (Pacha Du Polder): 6U11 (2-0-4)
5 of 10 winners ran in the Christies Foxhunter Chase, finishing FU611
Prior to On The Fringe doing the Cheltenham/Aintree double in past 2 years, you had to go back to 1993 and Double Silk for the last horse to do the Cheltenham/Aintree Hunter chase double.
5 of the last 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival (and 2 of those failed to complete the course at Cheltenham). In 2002 the 3rd and 2nd from the Christies Foxhunters finished 1st and 2nd in this but the next 6 runners that won or placed at Cheltenham to run in this have been unplaced. On The Fringe broke that trend in 2015 & 2016.
Other Races
Previous year's winner (On The Fringe): U2U792F1 (1-2-8)
Racing Post Champion Hunter Chase winner (On The Fringe): 0U11 (2-0-4)
Willoughby De Broke Hunter Chase winner (Grand Vision): F3 (0-1-2)
Yetholm Open Hunters' Chase winner (Premier Portrait): 29 (0-1-2)
3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's race, finishing U41
3 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Leopardstown Inn Hunters Chase, finishing 327
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in Racing Post Champion Hunters Chase, finishing 11
2 of 7 British-trained winners ran in the Walrus hunter Chase, finishing 11
Racing Tactics
9 of 10 winners led or raced prominently through the race
Typically in these one lap races over the National fences you do need to be up amongst the leading 9 or 10.
Trainers
Enda Bolger (2-1-4) trained Mossey Joe to finish 3rd in 2014 and On The Fringe to win it in 2015 & 2016.
Stuart Coltherd (1-1-3) has saddled Tartan Snow finish 1st & 2nd in 2013 & 2014.
Mickey Bowen (0-1-2) & Philip Hobbs (0-1-3) trained the 2nd & 3rd in 2016.
Willie Mullins (0-1-6) has seen 2 of his 6 runners finish in the first 4 and he saddled Boxer Georg of finish 2nd, 8th, 10th & unseat in past 6 years.
Paul Nicholls (0-1-9) last won this in 2002 but since then he has seen just 2 of his 15 runners make the places.
Irish trained runners (3-6-48) have gained 3 wins and 6 places from 48 runners, they have won last 3 renewals.
Jockeys
Sam Waley-Cohen (1-2-8) has proven himself one of the most effective jockeys over the National fences, and he has done particularly well in this race, riding 3 winners and 2 seconds from his last 10 rides in this race.
Jamies Codd (1-0-5) rode On The Fringe to win this last year..
Price
8 of 10 winners were priced between 5/2 and 8/1
Silver Adonis (2010) at 50/1 and Tartan Snow (2013) at 100/1 have been the only two double figure price winners since 2000.
Favourites (3-1-12) have won 3 of the last 10. In 4 of the last 7 years where favourite was beaten, it was trained in Ireland (4 of 5 Irish favourites beaten).
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 10 to 12
- French & British bred runners favoured
- Finished in the first 3 last time in the past 40 days
- Posted an RPR of 130+ on last completed start
- Won on 1 of last 2 starts
- Won 2 or more chases under rules
- Won over 2M 4F+
- Won a class 3 or better chase
- Won 1 or 2 races this season
- Previously run in 8 or fewer hunter chases (or a previous winner of this)
- Ideally has won a chase at Newbury and/or Haydock
- Finished in first 4 in last year’s renewal
- Caution advised over horses that finished in first 3 in Cheltenham Foxhunters Chase
- Tends to race prominently
- Ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen