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    Default Ascot,Haydock and Newcastle saturday 17/12/2016

    11.50 Haydock Park – The 32Red Casino Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle Race.


    We have a competitive-looking handicap to get the ball rolling today with a few potential improvers in the line-up to whet the appetite.

    David Pipe has employed the services of his top conditional David Noonan aboard EAMON AN CNOIC and the improving five-year-old could well be up to making his handicap debut a winning one. The son of Westerner joined current connections for a hefty €175,000 having finished a good second in an Irish point last April. The form of his runners-up effort read pretty well having only been beaten by the potentially very smart Lisheen Prince, a recent scorer at Ffos Las, with subsequent bumper winner Bosco Di Alco three places back in fifth. A pair of pulled-up runners have also gone in over hurdles since which puts another boost on the form. It’s fair to say he hasn’t quite lived up to his lofty price tag as yet but his win at Fakenham in October showed that he was well and truly heading in the right direction and he was probably value for more than the winning margin given he still showed signs of inexperience as he hit the front. An opening mark of 123 looks very fair on balance and if he copes with the softer conditions here, he must have a big shout.

    Pokora du Lys doesn’t have the most attractive form figures on paper but given he lost all chance when making a damning blunder when still travelling well last time, he is entitled to respect on his handicap debut. His form in France was nothing to write home about and it is a bit of an eyebrow-raiser that he was sold out of Nicky Henderson’s yard for only £6,000 without having run for the trainer from Seven Barrows, but he was shaping well in a pretty strong Southwell contest last time and starts out here at a realistic level.

    The one that may cause the selection most trouble is Philip Kirby’s Sakhee’s City as long as a heavy fall at Wetherby earlier in the month hasn’t knocked his confidence. It is a bit worrying that his previous four completions had all been runners-up efforts but despite his case of seconditis, his consistency can’t be knocked and his penultimate start behind Eyes Of A Tiger was a perfectly reasonable effort. With only a 2lb rise for that, he can still prove competitive.

    Advice

    EAMON AN CNOIC – 1pt win @ 9/2 (Paddy Power)




    12.40 Ascot – Foundation Developments Novices’ Handicap Hurdle.

    WYLDE MAGIC looks potentially very well-handicapped and could take some stopping in the opener at Ascot. The Evan Williams-trained gelding has run two promising races over hurdles to date, twice bumping in to Geordie Des Champs (now rated 129 and unbeaten in three starts over hurdles), and looks well capable of winning off 116. This will be the five-year-olds first start in handicap company, and the first over 3m, but the way he shaped last time out gives me plenty of hope that he will stay the extra distance. Geordie Des Champs was giving Wylde Magic 12lbs on their most recent outing but the pair pulled 22 lengths clear of the third and that ranks as a solid effort. Even after being headed the son of Oscar kept battling and was coming back at the line, indicating he isn’t short of stamina. He also jumps very well and settled perfectly well for Adam Wedge last time, positive traits for a horse stepping up in trip. horses from the yard, especially under this ownership, are renowned for progressing with racing so I’m expecting further improvement. Any such improvement should see him go extremely close and he looks worthy of a bet at 13/2 off what I believe to be a lenient opening mark from the assessor.

    There are obvious dangers, starting with the Nicky Henderson-trained pair, Ballinure and Minstrel Royal. The former won off a 2lb lower mark at Newton Abbot in September but has come up short off higher marks the last twice. The handicapper has relented but he doesn’t appear to hold much in hand, however he has the assistance of Barry Geraghty, and an improved display wouldn’t be the greatest of shocks. Meanwhile, the latter looks a little more progressive and probably a bigger threat to the selection. He finished a close second at the course over 2m4f last time out, and despite the winner disappointing subsequently, this close relation to Barbers Shop should have more to come up in trip.

    Red Infantry was well-fancied for a competitive handicap at Cheltenham in November and ran well to finish fourth. This contest doesn’t look as strong which entitles him to be in the mix, but he does have to contend with a 4lb higher mark. Walt is another unexposed type and he ran well on his debut for Neil Mulholland last time out. The winner of that particular contest has subsequently disappointed but this still ranks as a fair effort and is another one with strong credentials. Last time out scorers Desert Sensation and Trans Express (won at Exeter on Thursday) may not have the potential as a few of these, and whilst they arrive here in good form I’m prepared to focus on those less exposed types, with preference for the improving WYLDE MAGIC.

    Advice

    WYLDE MAGIC – 1pt win @ 13/2 (bet365 & Paddy Power)




    1.50 Ascot –The BGC Partners Handicap Steeple Chase.

    A competitive affair, with plenty of progressive chasers contesting. Captain Conan is arguably the big name in the race and you have to respect Nicky Henderson’s runner off a mark of 139, even though his last run wasn’t particularly encouraging. This horse is a Grade 1 Novice Chase winner so there’s obviously plenty of ability there, but he’s been a tough horse to get fit and ready, so he might be worth passing on, even though his mark does look very generous on his best form.

    Ultragold heads the weights and Colin Tizzard’s runner looks a big threat – just 4lb higher than for his last win at Newbury, he’s an improving handicapper who should play a part. Dusky Lark, from the same stable, also has a chance under Tom Scudamore. He’s been running solid races in defeat recently, so should go well off the same mark as when finishing second at Kempton in November.

    Jonjo O’Neill has a pair of entrants and while both will have to improve hugely on their last runs, In The Rough and Join The Clan still have plenty of potential and so can’t be ruled out.

    Pull The Chord looks to hold solid claims for Philip Hobbs after making a satisfactory chasing debut behind Master Dee in October and a mark of 131 could well underestimate the six-year-old. However, he would want some softer ground than he’s likely to get this weekend, so might be one to keep in mind for another day.

    The one that I want to be with here is Ben Pauling’s RAVEN’S TOWER, who was three lengths behind Ultragold on his last run, but gets a 5lb pull with that rival now. He’s been good this in 2 mile handicap chases and the track, trip and ground should be ideal for this son of Raven’s Pass. He’s been dropped a pound for that third-placed finish at Newbury and looks set for a big run for his in-form yard.

    Advice

    RAVEN’S TOWER – 0.5pt e/w @ 14/1 (Betvictor & Sky Bet)




    2.25 Ascot – The JLT Long Walk Hurdle Race (Grade 1)

    This year’s renewal looks an absolute cracker with seven of the 11 runners boasting at least one Grade 1 to their name. The market is headed by one of these in the shape of last season’s Albert Bartlett winner Unowhatimeanharry, and rightfully so having bolted up in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury three weeks ago. Harry Fry’s eight-year-old started last season off a mark of 123 and has done nothing but improve to now boast an official handicap rating of 165, the highest in the field by 5lbs. A repeat of his Newbury success would make him extremely difficult to beat but this race will take a lot more winning and I’m prepared to look elsewhere than back him at 11/8.

    Richard Johnson stepped in for the injured Ryan Hatch aboard The New One last weekend and he has been handed a plum spare ride on his stable mate, Ballyoptic. Nigel Twiston-Davies’ six-year-old is an admirable type and rounded off the previous campaign with a Grade 1 success in the Doom Bar Sefton Novices’ Hurdle, but he was firmly put in his place by Unowhatimeanharry last time out and I find it hard to see him reversing the places. However, the stiffer track at Ascot will be more suitable so he should bridge the gap and will be a popular selection amongst the each-way players.

    Reve De Sivola, the winner of the 2012, 2013 and 2014 renewals, was also behind Unowhatimeanharry last time, finishing a well-beaten fifth of nine. It would be folly to dismiss this course specialist but this looks a deeper renewal than those he’s won in the past, and at 11 going on 12, it is hard to imagine him being able to fend off a field of this strength. He is also better suited to much softer ground these days. He would also have to overcome a major age trend and become only the third horse aged ten or older to win the race since it became a conditions event in 1971.

    The French-raider Alex De Larredya is an interesting runner for Francois Nicolle and the in-form Daryl Jacob. He was an impressive winner of the Grand Prix d’Automne at the beginning of November in which he had Reve De Sivola and Ptit Zig in behind. Visually it was a taking performance, especially as he had to jump a faller along the way, and he cannot be overlooked easily. However, the main concern for me would be the forecast quicker ground as his winning French form has come on very soft going. There are also question marks about his French form (had previously been beaten by Ptit Zig), so he is passed over at a 7/1. At double figures he may have been worth chancing each-way, but his current odds are far too short for me.

    The aforementioned Ptit Zig is trading at about 10/1 which is understandable given he was firmly put in his place by Alex De Larredya on their most recent outing. Whilst he’s a fairly reliable sort he usually comes up short at the highest level on home soil and it’s likely to be the same story here. Stable mate Zarkandar was second in this race as the 4/6 favourite in 2014 and like Ptit Zig, just seems to find one or two too good at the highest level in Britain these days. His latest success at the highest level in England came in the Aintree Hurdle back in 2013 and he looks up against here. The same can be said for Shelford, West Approach and Surtee Du Berlais, who all face near impossible tasks at the weights. Un Temps Pour Tout was well-fancied for the Hennessy three weeks ago and reverts back to hurdles here. He would be entitled to close if at his absolute best, but the Hennessy is a gruelling test, as Saphir De Rheu found when attempting the same feat 12 months ago. That outing is bound to have left its mark and he is easily opposed on that basis here.

    That leads me to the one remaining runner and the selection, LIL ROCKERFELLER. There is a lot to like about Neil King’s stable star, no more so than his response to pressure, and on ratings he comes out second highest behind the favourite. Thought highly enough of to be supplemented for the Champion Hurdle last season, he looks a horse to keep on side with the focus on staying trips. His two runs so far this term have been very promising, and whilst he has been beaten on both occasions, the form is much better than the bare facts. Starting with his seasonal reappearance at Wetherby and his first try over three miles. He was only beaten 3¼ lengths by the then 158-rated Silsol, and Lil Rockerfeller was giving him 8lbs so he comes out best at the weights. He then went to Ascot and took on Yanworth in the Coral Hurdle and gave the third favourite for the Champion Hurdle a scare. It’s also worth noting that yet again he was giving weight away all round. Personally I am a huge fan of Yanworth, and whilst he had fitness on his side, to give a horse of that quality 4lbs was some performance. Ground conditions (currently good to soft) are also likely to be ideal too, with four of his six career wins coming on good to soft going. The same can’t be said for some of his rivals who would prefer more cut in the ground.

    Overall, whilst Unowhatimeanharry is the one they have to beat I think Lil Rockerfeller and Ballyoptic have the best chances of causing an upset and I rather take a chance on a horse that hasn’t been upstaged by that rival in the past. Noel Fehily also steps in for the suspended Trevor Whelan, and whilst I have nothing against Trevor, there are few jockeys riding as well as Noel at the moment, so this is an added bonus.

    Advice

    LIL ROCKERFELLER – 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (General)




    2.55 Newcastle – The Protecting Your Wealth Handicap Chase.

    Adrian Heskin has a strong book of rides at Newcastle on Saturday and BUN DORAN looks to have an extremely good chance of coming out on top in the 2m4f handicap chase. Sent-off the 3/1 favourite for his seasonal/chasing debut at Uttoxeter five weeks ago, he fared better than the bare result. He was beaten a fair distance in third but he paid for going hard early. He should also strip fitter for that outing, and assuming Heskin sets a slightly slower pace, he should take some beating. The Uttoxeter race is working out well too, with two of the horses in behind winning next time out (Brandon Hill & Gino Trail), and one going extremely close at Ascot on Friday (Champagne At Tara). Tom George’s gelding is a brother to Neil Mulholland’s smart Shantou Village, so has the pedigree to develop into an above average performer. He also jumped pretty well last time, and certainly looks a chaser, and with this contest looking easier than his Uttoxeter assignment everything points towards a big run.

    Of the opposition, Ash Park looks the biggest danger. Before unseating last time, his form figures read 121122, so he’s been holding his form despite going up in the weights. He fell too early last time to know whether his latest rise to 133 has found him out, but given he was beaten off 127 the time before, I have the suspicion the handicapper may now have him where he wants him.

    I believe the same can be said for Edmund and Bernardelli who look to be high enough in the weights at this moment in time. The pair are 8lbs and 3lbs above their last winning marks respectively, and I can’t envisage them having the same scope for improvement as the selection. Boric also finds himself 3lbs above his last winning mark and races off the same mark he finished 3rd off over the course and distance three weeks ago.

    No Planning is a likeable sort but he tends to do his racing over further (5th in the Midlands National) and whilst he has form over shorter trips, I get the feeling this could be a stepping stone to a longer term target. He also fell last time so connections will be hoping to rebuild his confidence here.

    Final Assault is one worthy of a mention. He’s run well of his current mark of 132 the last twice and is only 2lb higher than his last winning mark so he isn’t handicapped out of things given he has run well off higher marks. But like No Planning, I think he wants slightly further to be seen at his best.

    As touched on throughout the piece I think this is a fairly exposed bunch barring the unexposed BUN DORAN, who looks the part on paper and makes plenty of appeal on his second start over fences.

    Advice

    BUN DORAN – 1pt win @ 5/2 (Paddy Power)




    3.00 Ascot – The Lavazza Jolie Silver Cup Handicap Steeple Chase (Listed Race)

    Another in a long line of top staying handicaps throughout the season which perennially throws up a well above average winner. This year’s renewal looks every bit as competitive as recent years with most of the big yards represented.

    Paul Nicholls is double-handed in his quest to land the race for the second time in five years and has a big chance with Le Mercurey. Like Nicholls’ most recent winner The Minack, the six-year-old is a second season chaser who could well still have his best days very much in front of him. He was a fortunate winner of the Grade 2 Noel Novices’ Chase at this meeting last year and following a mid-season blip, bounced back to form in no uncertain terms with victory in the Grade 2 Future Champions Novices’ Chase at the Scottish Grand National meeting. He was far from disgraced when 3rd behind a pair of Gigginstoen runners in Sub Lieutenant and Outlander in a Down Royal Grade 2 on his reappearance and performed respectably behind Many Clouds at Aintree earlier this month. He clearly has a lot of ability so shouldn’t be overestimated by a mark of 152 and can be forgiven a disappointing effort on his last handicap start in the Sky Bet Chase given that was only his third chase start against more experienced rivals.

    With Sam Twiston-Davies booked, he looks the stable first string but, at the time of writing, Irish Saint is the more fancied of the Ditcheat pair in the offices. He was a classy novice a couple of seasons back butsuffered a leg injury and missed all of the last campaign. He weakened out of it on his reappearance over hurdles at Cheltenham’s Open Meeting but that was to be expected given the length of time he spent off the track and is entitled to come on a great deal for that pipe-opener. A return to his very best form would entitle him to a chance here.

    Jonjo O’Neill eclipses Nicholls in that he is trebly-represented and looks to have a pair of very live chances at the foot of the weights. The likeable Holywell towards the top of the line-up completes the trio but we all know that he is a much better horse in the spring so the best chance of a winner from Jackdaws Castle looks to come in the shape of Go Conquer, who could prove to be very well-handicapped having only been beaten a quarter of a length by subsequent Grade 2 scorer Present Man last month. In fairness, he was probably flattered by the proximity to the winner though and has to prove that he can stay this far as he steps into the unknown having failed to complete over this trip twice in points.

    Another Hero is an interesting contender just sneaking in at the bottom of the field and he has proved most consistent having prevailed in seven of his thirteen starts under rules. A line can be struck through his seasonal bow at Exeter where he will almost certainly have benefitted from the run-out and it was pleasing to see him complete having crashed out in the Irish National on his previous start. As one of only two course and distance winners in the field, this challenge should hold no fears for him and on just a 3lb higher mark than when winning at Ludlow back in February, he rates a live outsider.

    That being said, he looks to have been passed over by Barry Geraghty in favour of Regal Encore who has bags to prove having been pulled up on his last two starts. His last two incompletions took his tally to five pulled-ups out of his last six but sandwiched between was a very strong effort when runner-up in the ultra-competitive Pat Taaffe Handicap Chase at the Punchestown Festival. He has been eased a further couple of pounds on the back of his Cheltenham run last week but looks in need of a bit more help from the handicapper at present.

    Another likely outsider is top weight Annacotty who looks to have a massive task on his hand conceding weight all round. The consistent handicapper has paid the price for a couple of wins in valuable chases at Cheltenham last season and remains 4lb higher than his last victory back in January. He can’t be completely written off however given he is a Grade 1 winner for all that this may look to be too big an ask.

    Tenor Nivernais finished closely behind Alan King’s charge in January and is another to have paid the price from the handicapper. His following two efforts were a tad disappointing but he must come into consideration given his exemplary record fresh. The nine-year-old has struck on his last two seasonal reappearances so this might be the best time to catch him even though he is 18lb higher than his last two winning marks.

    From a pair that look handicapped to the hilt, to one that could be very well in on old form. Eduard was a very useful chaser a couple of seasons back and returned with a most respectable effort on his first run back from injury when not beaten far in fourth in the Grade 2 1965 Chase. Somewhat surprisingly, the assessor has dropped him 4lb on the back of that which would give him a massive chance if he returns to anything like the horse we saw finish fourth in the Ryanair back in 2015.

    It is a similar scenario for THE DRUIDS NEPHEW who has been lowered 5lb for running a most creditable race when fifth in the bet365 Gold Cup on his final start last campaign. He is now only 2lb higher than when scoring at the Cheltenham Festival in 2015 and let’s not forget that he was sent off at only 10/1 for the Grand National, and was travelling exceptionally well when falling 5 out, off that very same mark. He is another to have gone well fresh in the past and representing Neil Mulholland who struck in this with The Young Master two years ago, he looks to be a very good value each-way bet.

    Fletchers Flyer has been ultra-consistent for Harry Fry and finally started to realise his potential when a good winner of a marathon handicap chase at the Punchestown Festival back in April. He clearly has the ability to mix it in this field but the drop back to 3m may just find him out here as he looks a dour stayer and is more of a National type for later in the campaign.

    The only other last-time-out winner in the field is the hat-trick seeking Minella Daddy who has shown stark improvement since switched to fences. The former Irish pointer had shown enough over fences to suggest he had a fair level of ability but has blossomed over the larger obstacles of late, demolishing the field in ready fashion in a course and distance handicap last month. An 11lb rise for that looks a tad harsh on the bare form but you couldn’t fail to be impressed with the way in which he prevailed although this may come just a bit too soon for him in such a competitive race on just his fourth chase start.

    Triolo d’Alene rates an interesting contender off just a 1lb higher mark than when landing the Hennessy back in 2013. He always looked like the winner but benefitted from a fall two out to score in a Listed chase at Kempton on his seasonal bow last term but was found wanting in some pretty hot company after that. This is at least a more realistic level but it would be difficult to be too confident about his chances.

    Colin Tizzard’s Fourth Act completes the line-up and while he looks to be slightly up against it in a field of this class, he has recorded a pair of solid fourths in Grade 3 handicap on his previous two starts this season. He remains on the same mark so can conceivably once again hit the frame.

    Advice

    THE DRUIDS NEPHEW – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (General)




    3.35 Ascot – The Wessex Youth Trust Handicap Hurdle Race (Grade 3)

    On paper, this looks a really good renewal of this race and one that is sure to produce lots of winners in the future. One such horse is the smart Meet The Legend from Dan Skelton’s yard, who showed plenty of good form on his first season over hurdles, signing off with a close third to Le Prezien at Kelso in the Grade 2 Premier Hurdle in March. His mark of 138 doesn’t look too harsh given what he’s achieved so far and on his impressive win over Emerging Talent at Newbury in February, he has to have a chance. He’s been found by the market though and there are enough doubts on this, his seasonal debut, to make 7/1 look pretty skinny. Most of Skelton’s yard have needed a run first time out and while the ground certainly won’t be fast at Ascot, he could probably do with genuine soft ground to show his best over two miles.

    Another to have been well supported this week is Harry Fry’s Jolly’s Cracked It, who dead heated with the re-opposing Sternrubin, who looks to be in the handicapper’s grip now, in this race last season. It was without doubt his best effort to date and it was, in fact, the last time he was seen on a racecourse. The break of a year has to be a concern, as does the 6lb rise he’s been given for that performance, leaving him having to carry 11st 9lb. Although this must have been a long-term target, you’d expect that the horse would improve for a race and being thrown in at the deep end from a career-high mark to start his season is a tough ask.

    Nicky Henderson has his usual strong hand in this race, one that he’s won twice in the past seven renewals. Hargam looks as if he’ll find the ground too soft and his welter burden too much to carry, but the 1-2 from the competitive Listed December Handicap at Sandown Park two weeks ago should be in the thick of things again. Brain Power beat his stablemate, Consul De Thaix, by just less than a length that day while giving him 10lb, so having to give 4lb more this time around could tip the scales in the latter’s favour here, despite it looking as if the winner idled a little in front. Consul De Thaix was given a very patient ride that day too, so if he’s positioned closer to the action by Jeremiah McGrath this time, he should be there or thereabouts, even though he’ll be carrying the ‘second string’ silks of owner JP McManus.

    Carrying the ‘first’ colours is Paul Nicholls’s Modus, who also gets the services of Barry Geraghty, and this six-year-old ran a belter at Cheltenham to finish second in the Grade 3 Greatwood Hurdle on his last run. It seemed as if he was coming to defeat North Hill Harvey over the last, but just couldn’t get past the gallant winner and a subsequent 5lb rise in the weights looks very fair. He’s a talented individual with plenty of scope for more progress and it’s extremely difficult to envision a race that doesn’t have him challenging towards the business end. Wolf Of Windlesham fell two out when challenging in that same race at Cheltenham and while we don’t know how close he may have gone, he could be an interesting runner too.

    However, when it comes to top handicaps, both on the flat and over jumps, when Tony Martin has three entered, you know that at least one of them will have been laid out for it. Pyromaniac always looks as if he might play a hand in this type of race, but I think he’s be better suited by a longer trip, so Quick Jack appears to have better claims, especially with the assistance of the excellent 7lb claimer JJ Slevin. Now rated 112 on the level, his current mark of 148 over hurdles looks like it could be improved upon and he shaped well from the mark in the Galway Hurdle after being hampered two out. A closing sixth of 15 in the Group 1 Prix Royal-Oak when last seen, he’s obviously in great form, has plenty of ability and should be pitching in at the end.

    But, officially rated 7lb inferior to anything else in the race, Martin’s GOLDEN SPEAR has snuck in at the bottom of the weights and is a glaringly obvious threat considering he defeated rivals like Nakeeta and Snow Falcon in the Irish November Handicap. Snow Falcon went on to hack up in the Grade 2 Lismullen Hurdle at Navan, defeating Shaneshill, while Rashaan, 9th in the race on the flat, beat Apple’s Jade in the Grade 2 WKD Hurdle at Down Royal – not bad form considering that Gigginstown filly then beat Vroum Vroum Mag. A mark of 125 over hurdles looks as if it could be at least 10lb short of Golden Spear’s true ability given that he won the November handicap off a mark of 87 and is sure to be given a hike for that. On the Snow Falcon line, he’s rated 30lbs inferior to that rival over hurdles – that can’t be a true reflection of his ability. Although he has to prove his jumping is up to scratch and that he is as good over obstacles as he is on the flat, it would be mad to ignore this improving five-year-old creeping in at the bottom of the weights and I’d suggest an investment accordingly.

    Advice

    GOLDEN SPEAR – 1pt e/w @ 13/2 (bet365)

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (16th December 2016)  


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