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    Default Kempton,Wetherby and Limerick 26/12/2016

    12.55 Limerick – The Signsplus Hurdle Race.

    This looks pretty competitive on paper but one that stands out above the rest is ALLBLAK DES PLACES. Willie Mullins’ charge was a live outsider in the lead up to last season’s Triumph Hurdle on the back of a very good second behind stablemate Footpad in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown but skipped that engagement at the Cheltenham Festival and has not been seen on the track since. His layoff shouldn’t prove too much of an issue though as the Closutton handler usually has his horses in tip-top condition and he showed last year that he goes well fresh when shedding his maiden tag after a similar lengthy break. The form of that race hasn’t particularly been tested yet with the front two pulling well clear of the remainder but we may be afforded some clues when the runner-up Outspoken makes his seasonal reappearance in the 12.15 at Leopardstown. In any case, he has shown his capabilities at Grade 1 level and should have nothing to fear in this field with conditions perfect and the step up in trip likely to suit him down to the ground.

    Former stablemate Val de Ferbet is probably the biggest danger but his record over the last couple of seasons is there for all to see. The seven-year-old was a Grade 2 winner over fences as a novice and a Grade 2 runner-up over hurdles back in 2015 but since leaving Willie Mullins, has struggled to get his head in front in six attempts, finishing as the bridesmaid on four separate occasions. It remains to be seen whether the drop back to 2m4f will see him in the best light but at least the easier underfoot conditions will be in his favour here. He will likely run his race and is entitled to finish in the frame but has failed to land a telling blow in similar contests in recent times, finding little when push comes to shove, and is vulnerable to less exposed, improving sorts – especially the pair of four-year-olds with their handy 4lb weight-for-age allowance.

    One to keep a close eye on is the second 4yo in the field Runfordave who has been steadily progressive in bumpers and over hurdles since making his debut at the Punchestown Festival back in April. He improved with each start in bumpers, scoring at the third attempt at Down Royal in November despite showing signs of greenness, and has carried that form to over the sticks with a pair of highly respectable efforts. He finished a close-up third in a decent-looking novice event on his hurdles debut with only the useful Moulin A Vent and subsequent Fairyhouse scorer Minella Till Dawn ahead of him and duly obliged at the second time of asking in another strong maiden, accounting for Champion Bumper fourth Castello Sforza in the process. He seems to be progressing nicely and is clearly learning with every visit to the track so certainly has a chance of mixing it with the principals.

    Advice

    ALLBLAK DES PLACES – 2pts win @ 5/6 (Paddy Power)


    1.30 Kempton – 32RED.COM Chase (A Novices’ Limited Handicap)

    Nicky Henderson could be in for a fruitful boxing day and GOLD PRESENT has very strong claims here. Last season proved to be a write off as he failed to show any form in three starts. However, he bounced back and proved to be a very well-handicapped horse when winning in good style at Doncaster on his chasing debut last month. He did make a couple of early errors but he warmed to the task and jumped well in the second half of the race. That experience will have done him the world of good and I expect more to come on just his ninth start. Before last season it’s worth remembering he won maiden and novice hurdles without breaking sweat, after finishing second to the subsequent Fred Winter winner, Qualando, whom he was giving 10lb to. For me a 7lb rise wouldn’t have stopped him winning at Doncaster, and whilst this is a deeper contest, I expect him to have improved quite a lot and he’s attractively priced at 7/2.

    Poker School has been priced up as the main danger to the selection but he will need to improve on his Ascot win to defy a rise in class and an 8lb rise in the weights. His trainer said afterwards that this horse doesn’t have much scope and I’d be very surprised if he didn’t find at least one or two of these too good.

    Two Taffs has always been thought of as a chaser by connections and isn’t without hope. He certainly has the size and scope to be a chaser and will no doubt prove to be better than a 138-rated chaser in time. This does look a deep enough race to make his chase debut in though, and he could be one for the second half of the season.
    Sizing Tennessee has bumped into two smart Nicky Henderson prospects over fences so far this term (O O Seven & Whisper) and it looks like it could be a similar story here. He has to concede 2lb to Gold Present and he also looks more at home on heavy ground, so unless there is plenty of rain before now and the race, he looks a shade vulnerable for win purposes.

    The top-weight is San Benedeto is a consistent sort, and was still going well before departing at Cheltenham last time. He looks sure to run his race again but he holds no secrets from the handicapper off his current mark.

    The two remaining runners, Max Ward and Remiluc, cannot be overlooked lightly having both shown ability over fences so far. The former was a smart hurdler and gave Parlour Games a race in May 2014. He always faced an impossible task taking on Altior last time and this is a more suitable task, but I suspect he will come up short. Meanwhile, the latter ran well on his chasing debut at Newbury but like Max Ward, he’ll probably need some of the big guns to misfire if he’s to win this.

    Advice

    GOLD PRESENT – 1pt win @ 7/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)


    1.50 Wetherby – 188Bet Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase.

    A strong renewal on paper and it looks a good race for each-way players with 10 runners standing their ground at the declaration stage. A few trends to consider, the first being low weights have historically done well in this race. Since 2000 six of the 11 winners have carried 10st 8lb or less. In the same time frame there have also only been two winning favourites and seven of the 11 winners have returned at 7/1 or bigger, suggesting it may not pay to focus solely on those at the top of the market.

    At the time of writing Blaklion and Yala Enki are vying for favouritism at around 7/2. The RSA winner Blaklion tops the weights and this represents a drop in class having run in the Charlie Hall Chase and the Hennessy so far this term. He caught my eye in the latter but didn’t quite see out the trip as well as some. He’s in calmer waters here and I can see him running well but he’s passed over at the prices giving weight away all-round.

    Yala Enki made a winning chase debut at Haydock earlier this month and has been hit by a 10lb rise as a result. That puts him on a career high mark which looks within his limits but the quick return to the track has to be a slight concern. As has the forecast better ground, with his best from coming on a soft surface. He would be of interest if there was plenty of rain around but on good to soft or better I’d be happy to take him on.

    The market spoke volumes for Definitly Red in the Rehearsal Chase last time out but as has been the case in the past, he was let down by his jumping. He was doing his best work at the finish on that occasion but he could find himself on the back foot again if his jumping lets him down. He’s clearly highly regarded but I’m not willing to take a chance at around 9/2 that his jumping will have vastly improved since Newcastle.

    Henri Parry Morgan looked a stayer on the up when second to Native River at Aintree in the spring but he struggled in the Hennessy off his revised handicap mark. He’s 15lb higher than when winning at Uttoxeter and I’d like to see how he fares here off 150 before getting involved. He could well have needed the run last time but he was strong enough in the betting to suggest he was straight enough, but isn’t one to write off just yet.

    Next in the betting is Charlie Longsdon’s Our Kaempfer. He’s a horse with lots of potential but is still searching for his first win since March 2015. He ran well last time out at Newbury when proving no match for Clan Des Obeaux; he probably paid for taking that rival on, resulting in him losing second place. He steps back up to 3m which he has shown is within his reach when running well behind Thistlecrack at Aintree, and Mall Dini in the Pertempts Final. He has a nice weight here so I would expect him to run well again, but his ability to find a way of not winning puts me off slightly.

    That leads me to the selection and the bottom weight ACTINPIECES. Trainer Pam Sly and jockey Gina Andrews teamed up to with Helpston to finish 2nd in the race in 2011 and they look to have another strong contender here. She has had three runs this term, but you can write off her second start at Market Rasen as she was in season. Before that she took on Ballybolley here and was still in with every chance before a last fence mistake ended their challenge. She has made amends since though, returning to Wetherby to lower the colours of the odds on favourite Zeroshadesofgrey. Having also won a novice hurdle at the track it’s not surprise to see connections return to a venue she likes. Over hurdles she finished a close 2nd off a 1lb lower mark and given she has always been thought of as a chaser I think she has plenty of potential off this mark. This is a step-up in class but she receives weight all round and is versatile ground wise, so at around 14/1 Pam Sly’s five-year-old makes plenty of each-way appeal.

    Elsewhere, last year’s winning trainer Warren Greatrex saddles Ballyculla. He also makes some appeal each-way at around 14/1. He won a three-runner novice chase here last season before pulling up in the Scottish National and I doubt we’ve seen the best of him yet. Having said that his jumping wasn’t great in the Eider Chase last season and back in a competitive handicap may just find him out first time up.

    Seventh Sky and Wakanda wouldn’t be out of it if bouncing back to their best but I get the impression they may come up short in this field. Wakanda is now 2lbs lower than his last winning mark but has shown very little since that win, whilst Seventh Sky is still 4lbs above his last winning mark.

    Advice

    ACTINPIECES – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (Betfair Sportsbook, Betway)


    2.05 Kempton – 32Red Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)

    As always in this race, Paul Nicholls looks to have a very strong hand – Caspian Caviar Gold Cup winner from just two weeks ago, Frodon, has been declared and looks the first choice for the stable with Sam Twiston-Davies booked for the ride, while Present Man will also line up with Jack Sherwood in the saddle.

    Although we’re at the mercy of any unpredictable weather, it does look as if the ground will be relatively decent on Boxing Day at Kempton, so it would seem that Present Man would be best suited by conditions, even though his stablemate will be fine on good to soft. The six-year-old has been a revelation since he made the switch to fences, never finishing outside the first two when completing and winning a couple of useful contests on his last two runs, including a defeat of the highly-regarded O O Seven in a four-runner Grade 2 at Doncaster two weeks ago.

    However, this will be by far the toughest task he’s faced, and the class angle does certainly favour Frodon, who won a Grade 2 Novice Chase back in November, comfortably accounting for Shantou Village and Virgilio, who looks to have a lot on his plate here again. His win at Cheltenham last time was a strong-staying effort in tough conditions and three miles looks the natural next step for a four-year-old who has impressed hugely over fences so far. Still, he still has to prove that three miles is within his compass and even though he does receive 7lb weight for age, he’s been on the go plenty this year already and this has never seemed like it was the target for him.

    Another horse who comes into the race on a real upward curve is the Peter Bowen-trained Minella Daddy, who was unlucky to be collared by Regal Encore just a week ago in the Listed Silver Cup Handicap at Ascot. He looks sure to run a decent, honest race if this race doesn’t come too soon, but I do question his class and whether he can handle some of the rivals in this who could well have more potential.

    At big prices, Colin Tizzard’s Royal Vacation seems to have been completely overlooked here, but I think after some considerate handling so far over fences, he could well make an impact in this. He stayed well in heavy ground at Lingfield to win over three miles and while he was third of four at Ascot behind Politologue and Rock The Kasbah, he was staying on strongly after being outpaced and looking done with a long way out. He’s obviously got a very good attitude and I think the form of that last effort will work out well – Politologue could be a top class chaser. Still, this may be too big a task for him at this stage of his career on ground that might not be soft enough ideally.
    Six-year-olds have won three of the last five runnings of this race and market principals have been the ones to concentrate on – both categories that Anibale Fly falls into.

    The Tony Martin-trained gelding has been very exciting over fences so far, improving plenty on his hurdling form, stylishly winning on debut at Navan over an extended two miles before finishing second to Coney Island in the Grade 1 Drinmore Novices’ Chase at Fairyhouse at the beginning of the month. His chasing debut win has had the form franked by Martello Tower, who was easily brushed off by Anibale Fly under hands and heels riding, while his most recent effort saw him defeat Alpha Des Obeaux, Diamond King and A Toi Phil to name but three smart horses. He has the class to go very well here, but there is a huge question mark over the three mile trip. He stayed two and a half miles over hurdles and seemed to stay well enough in the Drinmore over that trip, but he’s a horse with plenty of pace, who has been running at two miles plenty and I wonder if this staying trip could blunt that speed, one of his best assets. However, if he stays, he’ll almost certainly be in with a chance at the end.

    MIGHT BITE was a very impressive winner of a two and a half mile novices’ chase at Doncaster at the start of December and this step up in trip is almost certainly a big positive for this half-brother to stayer Beat That. He’s always been one that trainer Nicky Henderson has had high hopes for over fences – this looks the logical next step for a horse that was rated 148 over hurdles and has plenty of potential to rate higher over the larger obstacles. He’d prefer the ground on the good side so any significant rain would be a negative, but good to soft would be fine and the booking of Daryl Jacob is another positive for his chances, especially after they paired up to win so well last time out. Jacob was impressed by the horse last time and I think he’s got a nice future over fences ahead of him, so should go very well here in a race that looks open to a strong-staying novice with plenty of class.


    Advice

    MIGHT BITE – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (Paddy Power)


    3.15 Kempton – 32Red King George VI Chase.

    A select field of five go to post for the Boxing Day highlight for thoroughly fascinating race which is dividing opinion. With due respect to Josses Hill Silviniaco Conti and Tea For Two, it looks a match between the big guns from the Colin Tizzard stable, the reigning champion Cue Card, and the World Hurlde winner, Thistlecrack.

    I will start with the current champion, Cue Card, a horse who I rate very highly and have backed regularly over the last two years. He somewhat disappointed in the Charlie Hall Chase but bounced back in sublime style at Haydock in the Betfair Chase. The ten-year-old looked to be better than ever last time out but there are a couple of things that bring in some doubt as to whether he will retain his crown. Firstly, like many, I am still left wondering what might have been the result in the Gold Cup has he not come to grief, when apparently still full of running. It was definitely far enough out to suggest ‘he would have won’; the Cheltenham hill was still to be climbed and who knows what would have happened. Secondly, I still have the impression that he may not have won this race 12 months ago had Don Cossack stood up, or even if Ruby Walsh would have ridden a slightly different race on Vautour, after all, he was only in front at the line. There is also the likelihood that Coneygree paid for a lack of match practice at Haydock (I’m not saying Coneygree would have won with a run under his belt, but it certainly would have been a lot closer). Overall, Cue Card is clearly very smart horse, but whether he will retain his King George crown, I’m not so sure.

    That leads me to his stable mate, THISTLECRACK, and in my opinion the best British horse in training. Like Cue Card, he does have some question marks to answer, most notably his experience over fences. After only three starts over the larger obstacles connections have decided to take the plunge and step in to open company. His jumping has been well scrutinised to date but barring a few over exuberant leaps at Cheltenham I don’t think he’s done a lot wrong. Those ‘mistakes’ came when under severe restraint and he jumped much better in the latter stages when allowed his head. He then went to Newbury and was pretty much foot perfect, encouragingly showing both horse and jockey had learnt from Cheltenham. I also believe that Colin Tizzard must have seen enough on the racecourse, and the schooling ground, to believe he is ready for this test. If he thought he needed more experience he would be running in the novice race, a decision I’m sure his owners would be fully behind.

    Away from his jumping the son of Kayf Tara possesses an extraordinary engine. He’s barely come off the bridle since the Long Distance Hurdle in November last year, winning seven races (three Grade 1s) easily, no ordinary horses can do this, and Thistlecrack is no ordinary horse. It was a big call from connections to go for this race but I think it will prove the right one. The forecast decent ground would be another positive for me; whilst Cue Card handles it, Colin Tizzard has been very vocal that he seems to prefer deeper ground these days. I think Tom Scudamore will keep things pretty simple by being prominent and one by one I think Thistlecrack will gallop his four rivals into submission. I believe Thistlecrack will go off favourite which makes the current 6/4 with Sky Bet even more appealing, and I think he will be incredibly difficult to beat if his jumping passes the test.

    Of the others Tea For Two is favoured to reverse the form with Josses Hill back up in trip at his beloved Kempton (won three times). He was an impressive winner of the Feltham 12 months ago and looks to have been trained for this race. Josses Hill has got his career back on track with two wins in as many starts this season but he has to prove his stamina over three miles at the highest level and his exuberance is likely to be his own worst enemy here. That leaves the 2013 & 2014 winner Silviniaco Conti who again has something to prove after fading away in the Betfair Chase. That did come on very testing ground so a better performance here wouldn’t be a shock, but his best days look behind him and it’s hard to see him troubling the two market leaders.


    Advice

    THISTLECRACK – 2pts win @ 6/4 (Sky Bet)


    3.45 Kempton – 32Red On The App Store Handicap Hurdle.

    The final race at Kempton on Boxing Day is a 2m5f handicap hurdle and sees a mix of generations with some horses on their way up the ladder up against some more experienced rivals.

    Sitting towards the head of the weights is Jonjo O’Neill’s Doesyourdogbite who has won his first two starts over hurdles, at Market Rasen and Hereford. The latest of those saw him defy a penalty and having jumped right-handed at some of his obstacles, he should be fine going around here. His opening mark looks fair enough on 132 but this promises to be quite different for him and I think 6/1 is short enough given his relative inexperience.

    One of the more experienced runners in the line-up is Alan King’s Big Chief Benny who bounced back from a below-par run at Market Rasen on his return to finish a close second at Doncaster earlier this month. He isn’t the easiest to win with and has been raised 3lb for his latest effort which is likely to make life more difficult for him, but the King team remains in good form so he shouldn’t be too far away.

    Michael Bell is probably more likely to be at Wolverhampton on Boxing Day than Kempton but he saddles an interesting runner here in the shape of Instant Karma. The five-year-old won twice over hurdles during the Summer and ran a fine race when second to Sternrubin at Ascot in October. He probably just found the 2m trip a bit sharp for him that day and it is interesting that he gets stepped up in trip here. Perhaps surprisingly for a race as competitive as that, he was only raised 1lb for finishing second. Barry Geraghty takes the place of Leighton Aspell on this occasion and if he can handle this slower surface, it is hard to see him finishing out of the places.

    Nicky Henderson also has a strong hand of runners at this meeting and he relies on Omessa Has here, who has so far failed to live up to expectations on her first two runs in Britain. A winner on her second start in France, she has failed to see her races out of late so it is interesting that she is fitted with a tongue-tie for this contest. Her form is hard to weigh up and it is hard to argue that she isn’t priced up on her connections rather than her form. She could clearly improve a good deal but I think she is worth passing over on this occasion.

    Dan Skelton’s Spiritofthegames has done little wrong over hurdles so far, just finding Grade 2 company a little too hot to handle on his latest start at Cheltenham. Prior to that the four-year-old had beaten another subsequent winner in the shape of Progress Drive at Ayr and a mark of 125 looks fair enough on what he has done to date. One slight worry would be that the Skelton yard are a little out of sorts at the moment but market confidence would indicate he is fancied to go well.

    Lisheen Prince is another lightly-raced type who finished second behind the smart Apasionado at Huntingdon in November. Not surprisingly being an Irish point winner, the five-year-old seemed to appreciate the step up to 2m4f when winning at Ffos Las next time. The form of that race isn’t working out too well with the second and third both having been beaten since but he was much the best on the day and he warrants plenty of respect on his handicap debut.

    However, the one of most interest is MOSCATO who was rated as high as 95 on the flat so his opening mark of 125 looks workable enough. The five-year-old has yet to get his head in front over hurdles but has improved with each of his three runs to date and he should appreciate the return to 2m5f here. He has shown a tendency to be keen over hurdles so far so the stronger pace of a handicap should help him to settle and he has plenty of experience in big fields on the flat. He is fitted with blinkers for the first time over hurdles here in a bid to eke out further improvement and in what looks a hot race, I think he has an each-way chance at around 9/1.

    Advice

    MOSCATO – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 (bet365, BetVictor, Paddy Power)

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    neilb (24th December 2016)  


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