The Coral Welsh National takes place at Chepstow on Tuesday 27th December. It is grade 3 handicap chase run over 3M 5½F, usually on soft or heavy ground, and it represents a serious test of any horse’s stamina. Previous winning course form is a big plus and in recent years, lower weights have held the edge.

Below we take a look at the trends for the last 10 years:

Age (for age purposes, assume 2010-11, 2012-13, 2015-16 renewals were run in 2010, 2012 & 2015)
5yo: 0-0-2
6yo: 1-3-17
7yo: 5-4-44
8yo: 3-12-54
9yo: 0-6-39
10yo: 1-3-22
11yo+: 0-2-10
horses aged 6 to 8 have won 9 of last 10 from just 61.2% of total runners.
Mountainous (in 2015) has been the only winner aged older than 9 in past 20 years.

Breeding
Irish bred: 5-15-105
French bred: 4-7-41
GB bred: 1-6-40
USA bred: 0-0-2
French breds have won 4 of last 10 from 21.8% of total runners.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
horses carrying 10-10 or more: 3-11-63
horses carrying 10-9 or less: 7-19-125
horses carrying 10-9 or less have 6 of last 7 and filled 20 of 28 places in last 7 renewals.
Top weight: P2377F73PU (0-3-10)
Since 2000, all 7 runnings of the Welsh National run on heavy were won by a horse carrying 10-9 or less.

Official Ratings
horses rated 143 or higher: 3-12-55
horses rated 142 or lower: 7-18-133
6 of last 10 winners (including last 5) were officially rated 137 or lower

Recent/Past Form



8 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time (4 won)
4 of 10 winners ran in a 3M-3M1F handicap hurdle last time out
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 55 days
10 of 10 winners had won over 3M or further
6 of 10 winners had previously won at Chepstow (4 exceptions were having their first course start)
9 of 10 winners had won a chase over 3M at a left handed track (exception was 2nd in Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury)
7 of 10 winners had run in 5 or fewer handicap chases (2 exceptions had won or placed in a previous Welsh National)
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases prior to this (exception won 3)
8 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (2 exceptions were 4th season chasers that had previously finished 3rd & 1st in this)
9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a listed/graded chase (exception had yet to run in a graded chase)

Other races
Previous year's winner (Mountainous): 72UPPP (0-1-6)
Midlands National winner (Firebird Flyer): P1 (1-0-2)
Bet Victor Handicap Chase winner (Viconte Du Noyer): P6P1 (1-0-4)
Unicion Handicap Chase winner (Theatre Guide): 8 (0-0-1)
BetBright Chase winner (Theatre Guide): P (0-0-1)
Hennessy Gold Cup winner (Native River): P (0-0-1)
Apollo Bet Online Graduation Chase winner (Onenightinvienna): 77 (0-0-2)
Haydock Grand National Trial winner (Bishops Road): U7PP (0-0-4)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Midlands National, finishing 1PP
2 of 10 winners ran in London National last time, finishing 46
2 of 10 winners ran in Welsh Grand National Trial last time, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in Newbury Pertemps Qualifier H'cap Hurdle, finishing 27
3 of 4 3rd/4th season chaser winners ran in Haydock Grand National Trial, finishing 326
2 of 4 3rd/4th season chaser winners ran in Classic Chase, finishing 47
2 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in the Totown Novice Chase, finishing 12
2 of 6 second season chaser winners (last 2) ran in Harwell Trophy, finishing 23
6 of 10 winners had finished in first 5 in Welsh/Scottish/Irish/Midlands Grand Nationals or the Hennessy (1 exception fell in the NH Chase when in with a big chance, another won West Wales National and other won a 3M 4F grade 3 handicap on previous start)
3 of 6 second season chaser winners had won a Chepstow novice chase over 3M+ the previous season

Trainers
The Richard/Kerry Lee Yard (3-1-8) have been responsible for the winner in 2011, 2013 & 2015.
Venetia Williams (1-3-10) trained Emperor’s Choice to win this in 2014 and also saddled a placed finisher in 2015.
Alan King (1-2-8) has saddled the winner and multiple placed finishers in the past 10 years.
Michael Scudamore (1-1-2) trained Monbeg Dude to win this in 2013 & place in 2014.
Jonjo O’Neill (1-1-5) trained the winner in 2002 & 2011.
Philip Hobbs (1-1-11) has also won the race in the past 10 years.
Paul Nicholls (0-5-19) trained back to back winners in 2004 & 2005 but hasn’t won the race since, although he did saddle the 2nd in 2014 and the 2nd & 3rd in 2013.
Evan Williams (0-3-6) has seen 3 of his last 6 runners get placed.
Neil Mulholland (0-1-1), Charlie Mann (0-1-2) & Rebecca Curtis (0-1-2) have all filled one place in past 10 years.
Irish trained runners (1-2-12) had not won the race until Notre Pere’s success in 2008, which remains their sole victory in the Welsh National.

Racing Tactics
5 of 10 winners raced prominently
4 of 10 winners raced in midfield
Only 1 of 10 winners was held up in rear

Price
7 of last 8 winners were priced between 9/1 & 20/1.
The favourite (0-3-11) has not won any of last 10. Last winning favourite was in 2004.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 6 to 8
- French bred horses do well
- Carrying 10-9 or less (especially on heavy)
- Officially rated 137 or lower
- Finished in the first 4 last time out in past 55 days
- Ran in a handicap hurdle over 3M+ this season
- Course winner (or having first course start)
- Won a chase over 3M or further at a left-handed track
- Run in 6 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 2) or placed in previous Welsh GN
- Won or placed in a graded chase over 3M+
- Second or third season chaser
- Finished in first 4 in Midlands National, Haydock Grand National Trial and/or Classic Chase
- Finished in first 4 in Welsh National Trial or London National last time
- First 6 in a previous Grand National, Hennessy Gold Cup or 4M NH Chase
- Trained by Kerry Lee, Alan King, Jonjo O’Neill, Venetia Williams or Evan Williams
- Tends to race prominently