Two at Chepstow - 27/12/2016

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2.40 Chepstow – Coral Welsh Grand National – Tuesday 27th December

There are several strong trends that should initially be taken into account before coming to a conclusion. The first of these centres around stamina, a vital ingredient for all Welsh National winners. The three miles, five and a half furlongs contest is often run on testing ground and it is a real stamina-sapping test for the horses.


Therefore it is no surprise to learn that all of the last ten winners had won over 3m or further prior to coming here. Quite unusually, all of the twenty runners in this year’s field have that to their name so that is one less factor to be worried about.


In the last paragraph I alluded as to how difficult a test this was and down the years fresher horses have dealt with conditions best. To quantify that idea, we can see that eight of the last ten winners of the race had run no more than twice during the current season. Only three horses miss the cut on this basis, Theatre Guide, Royale Knight and Raz De Maree so it may be best to steer clear of this quartet.


Another important factor is age and with nine of the last ten winners having been aged between six and eight, it is best to steer clear of runners outside of this bracket. There are eight horses within the desired group in this year’s field, the six-year-olds Native River and Beg To Differ, the trio of seven-year-olds Viconte Du Noyer, Vicente and Onenightinvienna and the three eight-year-olds Bishops Road, Carole’s Destrier and Unioniste.


Recent form can often give an indication of the fitness of a horse and on the whole you need to be looking for an in-form animal here. All but two of the last ten winners had finished in the first four on their most recent visit to the racecourse so this is not a race in which you should be hoping for a horse bouncing back. Just over half of the field miss out that score so I would suggest it is best to look elsewhere.


In terms of weight, the limit appears to be 11st as only two horses have carried more than that to victory in the last decade. When applying that to this year’s field that eliminates the top twelve as they appear on the racecard, from Native River down to Unioniste.


Given the undulations that runners have to encounter when racing at Chepstow, it will hardly come as a shock that horses with course form have done well over the years. In fact six of the last ten winners had recorded a course success prior to winning here. Looking at the line-up for tomorrow, there are a host of Chepstow winners including Mountainous and Emperor’s Choice who already have their name on the Welsh National roll of honour.


The final factor to take into consideration is the betting and it is fair to say that this is a race in which we should be taking on the market leaders. Silver Birch remains the last winning favourite in 2004 and with the three of the last five winners having returned at double figure SPs it is worth looking for one at a price.


Shortlist


CAROLE’S DESTRIER – 5/7


Mountainous – 5/7


Emperor’s Choice – 5/7

Conclusion


It is tight at the top of the trends tree for this race and with no horse having matched all of our trends, we have three horses who fail on a couple of trends each.

Mountainous is no stranger to this race having won it for the second time twelve months ago and he looks well placed to run well again this year. Kerry Lee’s eleven-year-old is clearly edging towards the latter stage of his career but he has clearly been targeted at this race and he had a pipe-opener at Sandown earlier this month. Having finished sixth in that same race last season, he was only pulled up this time around but he comes here off just 1lb higher than when winning in 2013 and with course experience on his side, he warrants a place on the shortlist.


Another previous winner to make the shortlist is Emperor’s Choice who just misses the age trend as a nine-year-old. Venetia Williams’ gelding shaped with some promise on his return at Kelso at the beginning of the month and that should have put him spot on for this race. The Williams’ stable is also starting to hit form and he is just 2lb higher than his last winning mark. I mentioned earlier that low weights have tended to do well of late and having snuck in at the foot of the weights, he is fancied to go well.


However, the one who gets the nod is CAROLE’S DESTRIER who was last seen finishing a close second in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury. That was the eight-year-old’s first run of the season and with that run under his belt, he must have a good chance of reversing the placings with Native River. He was pulled up on his last visit to Chepstow which raises a slight concern but he looks to have an otherwise strong profile and I fancy him to go close for the Neil Mulholland team.





ASO - Chepstow (3.15).

ASO bids to get his head in front for the first time this season at Chepstow (3.15). Venetia Williams’ six-year-old has run two fine races in the BetVictor and the Caspian Caviar Gold Cups at Cheltenham and racing off just 1lb higher than when runner-up last time, he looks to have a good chance of finding his way into the Winner’s Enclosure here. He is effectively 3lb higher with Charlie Deutsch now only claiming 3lb but the six-year-old is still lightly-raced over the bigger obstacles and I am confident we haven’t seen the best of him yet. He has made a couple of costly jumping errors on his last two starts which he needs to cut out but otherwise it is easy to make a strong case for him. In terms of opposition, Kerry Lee’s Grey Gold tends to go well fresh and has his first start since April, whilst the novice Drumlee Sunset could also come into the mix if he jumps better than he did at Doncaster last time. However, this race is less competitive than the ones that Aso has been contesting of late and I fancy him to go very close tomorrow.

Advice


ASO – 2pts win @ 2/1 (SkyBet, Ladbrokes)