TOLWORTH HURDLE TRENDS 2017

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The 32Red Tolworth (Novice) Hurdle takes place at Sandown on Saturday 7th January and is usually the first grade 1 race, run in Great Britain, of the New Year. The race was abandoned in 2009 & 2010 and in 2014 was rescheduled to Kempton.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings (2004 to 2016):

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-0-3
5yo: 5-5-28
6yo: 4-4-22
7yo: 1-1-5
8yo: 0-1-2
9yo+: 0-0-2
No strong trends on ages, 9 of 10 winners have been aged 5 or 6 though they have represented over 80% of the total runners.

Gender
All 5 female runners (0-0-3) to take part in this since 2000 have finished unplaced.

Bred
Irish bred: 6-5-28
GB bred: 2-4-15
French bred: 2-1-15
USA bred: 0-1-2
German bred: 0-0-2

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 last time out (7 won)
7 of 10 winners posted highest hurdles RPR of 132+ last time
9 of 10 winners had run in the past 45 days
10 of 10 winners had won one of their last 2 races
6 of 10 winners had run in 2 to 4 hurdles (2 exceptions won maiden hurdle on only previous hurdles run and other 2 ran 8 & 11 times)
8 of 10 winners had won just one previous hurdles race
9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 4 on all completed hurdles starts (exception finished in first 4 in 7 of 8 hurdles starts)
Only 2 of 10 winners had previously won a graded hurdle (both had won Kennel Gate last time)

Other Races
Kennel Gate Novices' Hurdle winner (Capitane): F121 (2-1-4)
Betfred "Happy 50th John McKenna" Novice Hurdle winner (Charlemar): 3 (0-0-1)
Bangorbet NH Novice Hurdle winner (Kayf Grace): 3 (0-0-1)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Kennel Gate last time out, finishing 211
2 of 10 winners ran in Bet365 Novice Hurdle at Newbury, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in British Stallion Studs EBF NH Novices' Hurdle, finishing 11
3 of last 4 Paul Nicholls-trained winners won a class 6 Wincanton bumper in Feb/March the previous year
2 of last 4 Paul Nicholls-trained winners ran in John Smith's Champion Bumper, finishing 13
2 of last 4 Paul Nicholls-trained winners ran in Dominic Baker Memorial NH Novices' Hurdle at Wincanton in October

Trainers
Paul Nicholls (3-1-8) has a superb record in this race, having won 4 of last 11 runnings.
Nicky Henderson (3-1-7) has trained 3 of the last 5 winners of this race at Sandown. He also saddled the 1-2 in the reschedule running at Kempton in 2014.
David Pipe has not saddled a runner in this before, but his father, Martin, has had 2 winners and a 2nd from 4 runners since 2000.

Price
9 of 10 winners were sent off 5/1 or shorter
8 of 10 winners came from the first 2 in the betting. The longest priced winner in the past 10 runnings was 9/1.
Favourites (6-2-11) have won 6 of last 10 renewals and show a level stakes profit of 2.63.

Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 5 or 6
- Finished in the first 2 last time out in the past 45 days
- Posted career high RPR of 132+ last time out
- Run 2 to 4 times over hurdles (or won only start)
- Won one or both of last two starts
- Never finished outside the first 4 over hurdles
- Finished in first 2 in Kennel Gate, Bet365 or British Stallion Studs EBF NH Novice Hurdle
- Trained by Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson
- Priced 5/1 or lower (favourite has a strong record)