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    Default *CLARENCE HOUSE CHASE TRENDS 2017

    The Berkshire Community Foundation Clarence House Chase takes place at Ascot on Saturday 21st January. The race is run over 2M 1F and was formerly as a handicap chase prior to 2008, when the race upgraded to grade 1 status and ceased to be run as handicap. The 2013 renewal took place at Cheltenham.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 9 runnings of this as a non-handicap:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    6yo: 1-2-5
    7yo: 2-3-13
    8yo: 6-0-12
    9yo: 0-5-13
    10yo+: 0-1-15
    horses aged 6 to 8: 9-5-30
    horses aged 9+: 0-6-28

    Breeding
    French bred: 7-6-31
    Irish bred: 1-5-18
    GB bred: 1-0-6
    German bred: 0-0-3
    NZ bred: 0-0-1
    French bred runners have won 7 of 9 runnings of this as a grade 1. Since 2002 10 of 13 winners were French bred and 1 other was German bred.

    Recent/Past Form
    9 of 9 winners had run 1 to 4 times since August
    9 of 9 winners had posted an RPR of 158+ on last completed start (7 of 9 had posted RPR of 169+ that season)
    8 of 9 winners won last completed start (exception was 4th in the King George)
    9 of 9 winners had run in past 50 days
    9 of 9 winners had previously run in 6 to 19 chases
    7 of 9 winners were 2nd or 3rd season chasers (2 exceptions had finished in first 2 in a previous renewal)
    7 of 9 winners had won a grade 1 chase
    9 of 9 winners had won a graded chase (7 of 9 had won a graded chase that season)
    8 of 9 winners had won a chase worth over £70K
    8 of 9 winners (last 8) were officially rated 165+

    Other Races
    Previous season's winner (Un De Sceaux): 3 (0-0-1)
    Tingle Creek winner (Un De Sceaux): 1111112 (6-1-7)
    Game Spirit Chase winner (Top Gamble): 111 (3-0-3)
    Previous season's Wayward Lad Novices' Chase winner (Ar Mad): 3114 (2-0-4)
    Desert Orchid Chase winner (Special Tiara): 2241 (1-2-4)
    Stella Artois 1965 Chase winner (Royal Regatta): 1 (1-0-1)
    Previous season's Heny VIII Novice Chase winner (Ar Mad): 24 (0-1-2)
    5 of 9 winners ran in Tingle Creek, finishing 111111
    4 of 9 winners ran in previous season's Queen Mother Champion Chase, finishing 1F45
    4 of 9 winners ran in Game Spirit Chase, finishing 1112
    2 of 4 second season chaser winners ran in Maghull Novices' Chase, finishing 14 (1 exception was 5th in Manifesto Novice Chase & other bypassed Aintree to win grade 1 at Punchestown)
    3 of 4 second season chaser winners ran in the Arkle, finishing 141
    2 of 4 second season chaser winners ran in previous season's Wayward Lad Novice Chase, finishing 11
    2 of 9 winners ran in Celebration Chase, finishing 11
    2 of 9 winners ran in Amlin Chase, finishing 12
    2 of 9 winners ran in Melling Chase, finishing 23
    2 of 9 winner ran in Shloer Chase, finishing 23

    Trainers
    Paul Nicholls (4-2-12) has won 4 of the 9 runnings of this race as a grade 1.
    Nicky Henderson (1-5-7) has saddled 1 winner and 5 places from 7 runners since 2008, he also saddled the winner of this in 2004 & 2006, when race was run as a handicap.
    Gary Moore (1-1-3) trained Sire De Grugy to finish 1st in 2014 & 3rd in 2016.
    Willie Mullins (1-0-2) saddled Un De Sceaux to win in 2016 and Twinlight to be 3rd in 2015.

    Price
    8 of 9 winners were priced under 5/1
    6 of 9 favourites have won this since the race was upgraded to grade 1.
    Favourites (6-4-10) have gained 6 wins in past 9 years, giving a level stakes profit of 1.15.

    Summary:
    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    - Aged 6 to 8
    - French bred
    - Run 1 to 4 times this season
    - Posted an RPR of 158+ last time (posted RPR of 169+ this season)
    - Won last start (ideally a graded chase)
    - Previously run in 6 to 19 chases (or unbeaten over fences)
    - Has previously won a grade 1
    - Won a chase worth over £70K
    - Officially rated 165+
    - Won Tingle Creek, Celebration and/or Game Spirit Chase in 2016
    - Second season chaser who won Arkle and/or Wayward Lad Novice Chase in 2016
    - Finished in first 3 in Maghull Novices’, Melling or Amlin Chase
    - Trained by Paul Nicholls
    - Priced shorter than 5/1 (favourite especially)

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (16th January 2017)  


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