The Berkshire Community Foundation Clarence House Chase takes place at Ascot on Saturday 21st January. The race is run over 2M 1F and was formerly as a handicap chase prior to 2008, when the race upgraded to grade 1 status and ceased to be run as handicap. The 2013 renewal took place at Cheltenham.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 9 runnings of this as a non-handicap:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 1-2-5
7yo: 2-3-13
8yo: 6-0-12
9yo: 0-5-13
10yo+: 0-1-15
horses aged 6 to 8: 9-5-30
horses aged 9+: 0-6-28
Breeding
French bred: 7-6-31
Irish bred: 1-5-18
GB bred: 1-0-6
German bred: 0-0-3
NZ bred: 0-0-1
French bred runners have won 7 of 9 runnings of this as a grade 1. Since 2002 10 of 13 winners were French bred and 1 other was German bred.
Recent/Past Form
9 of 9 winners had run 1 to 4 times since August
9 of 9 winners had posted an RPR of 158+ on last completed start (7 of 9 had posted RPR of 169+ that season)
8 of 9 winners won last completed start (exception was 4th in the King George)
9 of 9 winners had run in past 50 days
9 of 9 winners had previously run in 6 to 19 chases
7 of 9 winners were 2nd or 3rd season chasers (2 exceptions had finished in first 2 in a previous renewal)
7 of 9 winners had won a grade 1 chase
9 of 9 winners had won a graded chase (7 of 9 had won a graded chase that season)
8 of 9 winners had won a chase worth over £70K
8 of 9 winners (last 8) were officially rated 165+
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Un De Sceaux): 3 (0-0-1)
Tingle Creek winner (Un De Sceaux): 1111112 (6-1-7)
Game Spirit Chase winner (Top Gamble): 111 (3-0-3)
Previous season's Wayward Lad Novices' Chase winner (Ar Mad): 3114 (2-0-4)
Desert Orchid Chase winner (Special Tiara): 2241 (1-2-4)
Stella Artois 1965 Chase winner (Royal Regatta): 1 (1-0-1)
Previous season's Heny VIII Novice Chase winner (Ar Mad): 24 (0-1-2)
5 of 9 winners ran in Tingle Creek, finishing 111111
4 of 9 winners ran in previous season's Queen Mother Champion Chase, finishing 1F45
4 of 9 winners ran in Game Spirit Chase, finishing 1112
2 of 4 second season chaser winners ran in Maghull Novices' Chase, finishing 14 (1 exception was 5th in Manifesto Novice Chase & other bypassed Aintree to win grade 1 at Punchestown)
3 of 4 second season chaser winners ran in the Arkle, finishing 141
2 of 4 second season chaser winners ran in previous season's Wayward Lad Novice Chase, finishing 11
2 of 9 winners ran in Celebration Chase, finishing 11
2 of 9 winners ran in Amlin Chase, finishing 12
2 of 9 winners ran in Melling Chase, finishing 23
2 of 9 winner ran in Shloer Chase, finishing 23
Trainers
Paul Nicholls (4-2-12) has won 4 of the 9 runnings of this race as a grade 1.
Nicky Henderson (1-5-7) has saddled 1 winner and 5 places from 7 runners since 2008, he also saddled the winner of this in 2004 & 2006, when race was run as a handicap.
Gary Moore (1-1-3) trained Sire De Grugy to finish 1st in 2014 & 3rd in 2016.
Willie Mullins (1-0-2) saddled Un De Sceaux to win in 2016 and Twinlight to be 3rd in 2015.
Price
8 of 9 winners were priced under 5/1
6 of 9 favourites have won this since the race was upgraded to grade 1.
Favourites (6-4-10) have gained 6 wins in past 9 years, giving a level stakes profit of 1.15.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 6 to 8
- French bred
- Run 1 to 4 times this season
- Posted an RPR of 158+ last time (posted RPR of 169+ this season)
- Won last start (ideally a graded chase)
- Previously run in 6 to 19 chases (or unbeaten over fences)
- Has previously won a grade 1
- Won a chase worth over £70K
- Officially rated 165+
- Won Tingle Creek, Celebration and/or Game Spirit Chase in 2016
- Second season chaser who won Arkle and/or Wayward Lad Novice Chase in 2016
- Finished in first 3 in Maghull Novices’, Melling or Amlin Chase
- Trained by Paul Nicholls
- Priced shorter than 5/1 (favourite especially)
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