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    Default PETER MARSH CHASE TRENDS 2017

    The Peter Marsh Chase, which takes place at Haydock on Saturday 21st January, is a grade 2 limited handicap chase run over 3M 1F. The race is usually run on very testing ground and has been abandoned 4 times since the turn of the millennium.

    Below we take a look at the trends for 10 runnings since 2004:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    7yo: 0-5-12
    8yo: 4-2-21
    9yo: 2-6-27
    10yo: 2-2-16
    11yo: 1-0-9
    12yo+: 1-2-8
    8 of 10 winners were 8 to 10, though that age group represented almost 70% of total runners.
    The one 11yo winner had previously won 2 grade 1 chases and the one 12yo winner had won a grade 3 chase on previous start and was placed in the previous running of the Peter Marsh.

    Breeding
    Irish bred: 5-10-51
    GB bred: 4-2-18
    French bred: 1-5-20
    Other: 0-0-4
    9 of 10 winners were GB or Irish bred
    4 of 6 French breds to make frame were aged 7 or 8.
    Progeny of Cloudings: 161 (2-0-3)
    Progeny of Midnight Legend: 1 (1-0-1)

    Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
    horses carrying 10-12 or more: 3-8-33
    horses carrying 10-11 or less: 7-9-60
    3 of last 6 winners were allotted 11-5 or more.
    Top Weights: 2522164PPP2 (1-4-11)
    5 of last 8 winners were ridden by claiming jockeys.

    Official Ratings
    horses rated 140 or higher: 6-10-53
    horses rated 139 or less: 4-7-40
    9 of 13 winners (since 2000) were running off a mark of 139 or higher
    In past 4 years, horses rated 134 to 142 have won all 4 and filled 10 of 12 places.
    horses running from out of handicap: 4-4-30

    Recent/Past Form


    8 of 10 winners had won 1 of their last 3 chase starts
    8 of 10 winners finished in first 4 on last completed chase start
    10 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 135+ in 1 or both of last 2 start completed chase outings
    10 of 10 winners had had their last start in December or January
    10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times since August
    8 of 10 winners run at least 8 times over fences (1 exception had finished 4th in that season's Hennessy Gold Cup on second chase run)
    8 of 10 winners had run in 10 or fewer handicap chases
    8 of 10 winners had won over 3M 1F+
    5 of 10 winners had won at Haydock (2 exceptions had finished 2nd over CD & 2 others were making racecourse debut)
    6 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or higher chase
    8 of 10 had contested a graded chase
    7 of 10 winners had contested a class 1 chase that season

    Other Races
    Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase winner (Definitly Red): 41 (1-0-2)
    Hillhouse Quarry H'cap Chase winner (Definitely Red): P (0-0-1)
    Appletiser 50 Year Celebration H'cap Chase winner (Sausalito Sunrise): P (0-0-1)
    Rehearsal Chase winner (Otago Trail): P (0-0-1)
    4 of 10 winners ran in Rowland Meyrick last time, finishing 3F31

    Trainers
    Sue Smith (2-3-9) has a fine record, having saddled 3 winners & 4 places from 11 runners since 2000.
    David Pipe (1-1-3) trained winner in 2010 and 3rd in 2012.
    Evan Williams (1-0-2) & Donald McCain (1-0-4) trained the winners in 2014 & 2009 respectively.
    Venetia Williams (1-0-5) has trained the winner in 1999 & 2007.
    Paul Nicholls (0-2-5) has gained 2 places from 5 runners in past 10 runnings.
    Philip Hobbs (0-1-2), Jonjo O'Neill (0-1-2), Henry Daly (0-1-2) & Nigel Twiston Davies (0-1-6) have all saddled 1 placed finisher in past 10 runnings.

    Racing Tactics
    8 of 10 winners led or raced prominently

    Price
    No strong trends on prices, though 4 of last 8 winners were sent off at 16/1, 16/1, 20/1 & 33/1.
    Favourites (1-1-10) have won just one running since 2004, giving a level stakes loss of 6.75.

    Summary:
    Based on the trends from the past 9 runnings you are looking for a horse:
    - Aged 8 to 10 (or aged 11+ & has won a graded chase)
    - Irish or GB bred (especially GB breds)
    - Officially rated 134 to 142 (don’t discount horses racing from out of handicap)
    - Finished in first 4 on last completed start in past 30 days
    - Posted an RPR of 135+ in one or both of last 2 completed chase starts
    - Run 2 to 5 times this season
    - Has won a chase over 3M+
    - Previously run in 8 or more chases
    - Run in 10 or fewer handicap chases
    - Won a class 2 or higher chase
    - Previously contested a graded chase (& contested a class 1 race this season)
    - Had last start in the Rowland Meyrick Chase (ideally finishing in first 3)
    - Respect horses ridden by jockeys claiming an allowance
    - Trained by Sue Smith or David Pipe
    - Tends to race prominently

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (17th January 2017)  


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