Close

Results 1 to 1 of 1
  1. #1
    DF VIP Member ganjaman2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    croseyceiliog
    Posts
    1,929
    Thanks
    352
    Thanked:        1,639
    Karma Level
    352

    Default COTSWOLD CHASE TRENDS 2017

    The Grade 2 Betbright Trial Cotswold Chase takes place at Cheltenham on Saturday 28th January. Run over 3M 1½F, it can provide good clues as to a Gold Cup prospect’s suitability for the showpiece in March.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings at Cheltenham:

    Age
    6yo: 0-0-1
    7yo: 1-3-10
    8yo: 1-4-17
    9yo: 4-5-22
    10yo: 4-2-14
    11yo+: 0-2-14
    horses aged 9 or 10 have won 8 of last 9 runnings.
    3 of the 4 horses aged 7, which were placed, were French bred
    Since 2000, French bred 7yos: 2-2-7 compared to 7yos bred in GB & Ire: 0-1-6.

    Breeding
    Irish bred: 4-12-37
    French bred: 4-3-23
    GB bred: 2-1-16
    Belgian bred: 0-0-1

    Weight
    horses carrying 11-10: 1-4-18
    horses carrying 11-4 to 11-6: 6-5-37
    horses carrying 11-3 or less: 3-7-22
    Prior to Many Clouds’ win in 2015, the previous winner to carry 11-10 to victory was Grey Abbey in 2005.
    The last 3 winners to carry 11-10 had posted a career high RPR of 164+ on last completed start.

    Official Ratings
    9 of 10 winners were officially rated 153+

    Recent/Past Form
    10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 157+ in at least 1 of last 3 completed chase starts
    8 of 10 winners had won over 2M 7F+ (2 exceptions had finished in first 3 in a 3M grade 1 chase)
    9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times since August
    10 of 10 winners had had 8 to 20 previous chase starts
    7 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (1 exception had finished 3rd & 4th in Gold Cups & another was 2nd in RSA Chase)
    9 of 10 winners had won a graded chase (exception had won a grade hurdle & been 3rd in a grade 1 chase)
    8 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a grade 1 chase (1 exception had yet to run in a grade 1 chase & other was 5th in a Cheltenham Gold Cup)

    Other Races
    Previous season's winner (Smad Place): 3442 (0-1-4)
    Ascot Chase winner (Silviniaco Conti): 2 (0-1-1)
    Lavazza Jolie Silver Cup winner (Regal Encore): 4P (0-0-2)
    4 of 10 winners ran in Hennessy Gold Cup, finishing 5B11
    3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's RSA Chase, finishing 06B
    3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing 548
    2 of 10 winners ran in Rowland Meyrick last time, finishing 31
    2 of 10 winners ran in December Gold Cup, finishing 1P
    2 of 10 winners ran in Bet Victor Gold Cup, finishing 13
    2 of 10 winners ran in Aintree Bowl, finishing 74
    2 of 10 winners ran in King George last time, finishing 24
    2 of 3 second season chaser winners ran in Reynoldstown Novice Chase, finishing 52
    2 of 3 second season chaser winners ran in Mildmay Novice Chase, finishing 44
    2 of 3 second season chaser winners ran in Colin Parker Memorial Chase, finishing 21

    Trainers
    Paul Nicholls (2-2-12) won back to back runnings in 2010 & 2011.
    Alan King (1-3-4) has gained 1 win and 3 places from his 4 runners.
    Oliver Sherwood (1-1-2) trained Many Clouds to win in 2015 and finish 2nd in 2016.
    Colin Tizzard (1-1-5) trained winner in 2009 and 3rd in 2016.

    Price
    No strong trends on prices with 7 of 10 winners priced between 4/1 & 7/1 and the other 3 going off at odds of 11/1 to 16/1.
    The favourite (0-6-12) has a shocking record, having not won any of the last 10. You have to go back to 1999 for last successful market leader.

    Summary:
    Based on trends from the past 10 runnings you are looking for a horse:
    - Aged 9 or 10 (or French bred 7yo)
    - Officially rated 153+
    - Carrying 11-6 or less (or posted an RPR of 164+ on last completed start)
    - Posted an RPR of 157+ in at least 1 of last 3 completed chase starts
    - Had won over 2M 7F+
    - Run 2 to 4 times this season
    - Had run 8 to 20 time over fences
    - Previously won at Cheltenham
    - Had won a graded chase
    - Previously finished in first 4 in a grade 1 chase
    - Finished in first 6 in Cheltenham Gold Cup or RSA Chase
    - Second season chaser that finished in first 4 in Mildmay, Reynoldstown and/or Colin Parker Memorial Chase
    - Finished in first 7 in 2016 Aintree Bowl and/or Hennessy Gold Cup
    - Trained by Alan King, Paul Nicholls or Colin Tizzard

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (25th January 2017)  


Similar Threads

  1. maximum chase problems
    By gandalf72 in forum Microsoft Consoles
    Replies: 4
    Last Post: 22nd December 2005, 02:07 AM
  2. Chase Hollywood Stunt Driver
    By rishy in forum Microsoft Consoles
    Replies: 11
    Last Post: 14th October 2002, 09:51 PM
  3. Chase - Hollywood Stunt Driver
    By TAR in forum Microsoft Consoles
    Replies: 35
    Last Post: 10th October 2002, 08:35 PM
  4. Chase Hollywood Stunt Driver ProjectX [9x50MB]
    By Fear345 in forum Microsoft Consoles
    Replies: 15
    Last Post: 30th September 2002, 10:17 AM
  5. anyone burnt chase?
    By Garny in forum Microsoft Consoles
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 22nd September 2002, 12:45 AM

Social Networking Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •