The Grade 2 Betbright Trial Cotswold Chase takes place at Cheltenham on Saturday 28th January. Run over 3M 1½F, it can provide good clues as to a Gold Cup prospect’s suitability for the showpiece in March.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings at Cheltenham:
Age
6yo: 0-0-1
7yo: 1-3-10
8yo: 1-4-17
9yo: 4-5-22
10yo: 4-2-14
11yo+: 0-2-14
horses aged 9 or 10 have won 8 of last 9 runnings.
3 of the 4 horses aged 7, which were placed, were French bred
Since 2000, French bred 7yos: 2-2-7 compared to 7yos bred in GB & Ire: 0-1-6.
Breeding
Irish bred: 4-12-37
French bred: 4-3-23
GB bred: 2-1-16
Belgian bred: 0-0-1
Weight
horses carrying 11-10: 1-4-18
horses carrying 11-4 to 11-6: 6-5-37
horses carrying 11-3 or less: 3-7-22
Prior to Many Clouds’ win in 2015, the previous winner to carry 11-10 to victory was Grey Abbey in 2005.
The last 3 winners to carry 11-10 had posted a career high RPR of 164+ on last completed start.
Official Ratings
9 of 10 winners were officially rated 153+
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 157+ in at least 1 of last 3 completed chase starts
8 of 10 winners had won over 2M 7F+ (2 exceptions had finished in first 3 in a 3M grade 1 chase)
9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times since August
10 of 10 winners had had 8 to 20 previous chase starts
7 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (1 exception had finished 3rd & 4th in Gold Cups & another was 2nd in RSA Chase)
9 of 10 winners had won a graded chase (exception had won a grade hurdle & been 3rd in a grade 1 chase)
8 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a grade 1 chase (1 exception had yet to run in a grade 1 chase & other was 5th in a Cheltenham Gold Cup)
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Smad Place): 3442 (0-1-4)
Ascot Chase winner (Silviniaco Conti): 2 (0-1-1)
Lavazza Jolie Silver Cup winner (Regal Encore): 4P (0-0-2)
4 of 10 winners ran in Hennessy Gold Cup, finishing 5B11
3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's RSA Chase, finishing 06B
3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing 548
2 of 10 winners ran in Rowland Meyrick last time, finishing 31
2 of 10 winners ran in December Gold Cup, finishing 1P
2 of 10 winners ran in Bet Victor Gold Cup, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in Aintree Bowl, finishing 74
2 of 10 winners ran in King George last time, finishing 24
2 of 3 second season chaser winners ran in Reynoldstown Novice Chase, finishing 52
2 of 3 second season chaser winners ran in Mildmay Novice Chase, finishing 44
2 of 3 second season chaser winners ran in Colin Parker Memorial Chase, finishing 21
Trainers
Paul Nicholls (2-2-12) won back to back runnings in 2010 & 2011.
Alan King (1-3-4) has gained 1 win and 3 places from his 4 runners.
Oliver Sherwood (1-1-2) trained Many Clouds to win in 2015 and finish 2nd in 2016.
Colin Tizzard (1-1-5) trained winner in 2009 and 3rd in 2016.
Price
No strong trends on prices with 7 of 10 winners priced between 4/1 & 7/1 and the other 3 going off at odds of 11/1 to 16/1.
The favourite (0-6-12) has a shocking record, having not won any of the last 10. You have to go back to 1999 for last successful market leader.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 runnings you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 9 or 10 (or French bred 7yo)
- Officially rated 153+
- Carrying 11-6 or less (or posted an RPR of 164+ on last completed start)
- Posted an RPR of 157+ in at least 1 of last 3 completed chase starts
- Had won over 2M 7F+
- Run 2 to 4 times this season
- Had run 8 to 20 time over fences
- Previously won at Cheltenham
- Had won a graded chase
- Previously finished in first 4 in a grade 1 chase
- Finished in first 6 in Cheltenham Gold Cup or RSA Chase
- Second season chaser that finished in first 4 in Mildmay, Reynoldstown and/or Colin Parker Memorial Chase
- Finished in first 7 in 2016 Aintree Bowl and/or Hennessy Gold Cup
- Trained by Alan King, Paul Nicholls or Colin Tizzard
Social Networking Bookmarks