Cheltenham, Doncaster and one from Uttoxeter 28/1/2017
12.35 Cheltenham – Timeform Novices´ Handicap Chase.
This handicap chase over an extended 2m4f has attracted a strong field and the weights are headed by Ibis Du Rheu. The six-year-old has yet to get off the mark over fences but ran well for a long way behind Thistlecrack in November. Last time, he found Evan Williams’ Pobbles Bay too strong at Chepstow and the form of that race hasn’t worked out too well with the winner being well beaten behind American a couple of weeks ago. I have no doubt there is more to come from this six-year-old but I think it will be tough for him to carry top weight and he is passed over.
Another who might be up against it at the weights is Royal Vacation who has gone up 12lb for his victory in the Kauto Star Novices Chase at Kempton over Christmas. Colin Tizzard’s seven-year-old would have been a distant second had Might Bite successfully jumped the last and it seems excessive by the handicapper to give him such a rise. It also looked as though 2m5f was on the sharp side for him at Ascot in December so the drop back in trip here looks a strange decision.
He is not the only one whose form suggests they would be suited by a greater test of stamina, Champers On Ice for example, who appeared to see the 3m trip out really well at Warwick a couple of weeks ago. His jumping will need to be better than it was that day if he is to go close here as he turned in a number of slow jumps but perhaps the drop back in trip will teach him to jump quicker. The stable saddled Un Temps Pour Tout to finish fourth in this race last year before he went onto Festival success over further and it may that connections are working on a similar plan for this seven-year-old.
Tom George’s Singlefarmpayment has already won over an extended 3m1f at Cheltenham, getting the better of Arpege D’Alene in December. He saw the trip out well on that occasion but he did travel exuberantly through the race so perhaps dropping him back in distance is not such a bad idea. The thing that would be more of a concern would be the 9lb rise that he got for his latest success but that was a competitive race and it shouldn’t stop him going close here for the formidable George-Heskin axis.
There are a couple of multiple winners in the line-up, the first of those being Mercian Prince who has won his last two starts since coming to Britain. His trainer Amy Murphy has made a fine start to her career with a license and he stayed on best of all to win in testing conditions at Sandown earlier this month. A 7lb rise will make life more difficult for him and I think he would probably prefer for more than the forecast rain to arrive at Prestbury Park.
More Buck’s has also done his fair share of winning, being successful on three of his last five starts. He was in against more experienced rivals last time and probably just went too quick early on but he can bounce back here down in trip.
Nick Gifford’s Theo’s Charm must also come into consideration, having chased home a couple of smart rivals on his first two starts over fences. He ran a fine race over hurdles in the Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock in November and with the yard having won this two years ago with Generous Ransom, he has to come into the reckoning.
However, the one I like the look of is BURTONS WELL who hasn’t had too much racing and won at the second attempt over fences on New Year’s Eve. He got the better of the progressive Pistol Park that day and the form has also been boosted with the sixth Rock Gone going on to win at Wetherby. Prior to that, he had chased home Malcolm Jefferson’s Waiting Patiently at Sedgefield and he should be able to cope with a rise in the weights for his victory, given that was only his fifth start under rules. His trainer Venetia Williams has won this race twice in recent years as well as saddling a host of placed horses and I think this eight-year-old has a leading chance.
I also want to quickly mention one at a big price and that is the Irish raider Uncle Danny who seemed to appreciate the switch to front-running tactics at Cork last time. He won with plenty in hand on the day and whilst the handicapper has taken no chances in giving him a mark of 144, he could run better than his odds suggest under Noel Fehily.
Advice
BURTONS WELL – 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (bet365, Paddy Power)
1.25 Doncaster – The Albert Bartlett River Don Novices’ Hurdle Race (Grade 2)
This looks to be a fascinating affair and could have a massive bearing on the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival. A field of ten line-up, the biggest since 2009 and each and every one of them can have a case made for them.
Nicky Henderson landed the 2015 renewal with Caracci Apache and he looks to have a very good chance of a second victory in three years with Constantine Bay. The former pointer was snapped for £40,000 having shed his maiden tag at the second attempt and made no mistake at the first time of asking under Rules when landing a competitive Haydock novice hurdle by half a length from Brio Conti. The form of that contest has been franked with four of his rivals since getting on the scoresheet and he followed up with a cosy win under a penalty at Chepstow earlier this month. The strapping six-year-old looks like a chaser in the making so the step up to three miles should suit but he does have to concede weight to the entire field bar Duel At Dawn.
Therefore, GIVE ME A COPPER is the selection as he bids to extend his unbeaten run to four. He hosed up on his only start in points in Ireland for Donal Coffey and struck in similarly facile fashion in a Cork bumper last March. He went for a whopping £270,000 to current connections on the back of that and while he has a long way to go to repay their faith, he got off to a near perfect start when cruising clear in a maiden hurdle at Exeter last month. He still showed signs of greenness that day which affected his jumping but with that experience under his belt, there is surely a great deal more to come. He is another with a big future, likely over the larger obstacles in time (mooted as a Gold Cup horse by previous trainer Donal Coffey on the back of his bumper win!) but clearly has bags of ability and could take a lot of stopping.
One that could run well at a bigger price is Strong Pursuit who has been most impressive on his last two outings. Another Irish import, he was purchased for £90,000 back in 2015 having struck at the third time of asking in points. He was pitched in at the deep end on his return from over a year and a half off the track in a hot novice event at Ascot in November and unsurprisingly looked in need of the run when weakening from the front. He has made no mistake since then though, winning impressively at Wincanton and Hereford and shapes as though he should be suited by the step up to three miles here.
Minella Aris is another to consider having broken his duck under Rules in a Southwell novice hurdle in November. He has taken a while to get the hang of things but his latest effort certainly showed signs of encouragement and he stayed on well once asked the question by Adrian Heskin. He looks to have a bit to find but we may not have seen the better of him just yet.
Advice
GIVE ME A COPPER – 1.5pts win @ 9/4 (William Hill)
2.45 Uttoxeter – The Staffs Construction Handicap Hurdle Race.
LE ROCHER is a horse I have been keeping my eye on in recent weeks and his plans seem to have been thwarted by the abandonments. He also holds an entry at Cheltenham but Uttoxeter looks set to go ahead so he should line up here with this being his first preference. The one-time top class juvenile returned from nearly three years off the track at Ascot in November and showed enough to suggest he still retained a fair amount of his old ability. He backed that up with what was most likely a creditable effort when second to subsequent Grade 2 Champion Hurdle Trail runner-up Clyne at Haydock in December (although we don’t really know what happened in the closing stages due to ‘fog-gate’!). A 1lb rise is neither here nor there in the grand scheme of things and while he steps up another furlong in trip here, I fully expect him to take it in his stride.
His biggest threat looks likely to come in the shape of The Gipper who was just worn down by Stamp Your Feet at Hereford last month. Evan Williams’ charge had found life much tougher in handicaps since graduating from novice company but produced a much improved showing last time out. He battled well having made most of the running and was out-pointed by a short head in the end. A 2lb rise is perfectly fair for that if coping with the step back up in trip, he could have a big say. Really testing conditions would enhance his chances further.
Another in his element in boggy ground is old favourite Melodic Rendezvous, who showed signs of regaining some form when second to Ch’tibello in a valuable hurdle at Haydock back in November. He was once again found to be out of his depth in the Grade 2 International Hurdle next time. This is at least more realistic but I think it’s fair to say that his best days are behind him now.
One of the more interesting contenders in the field is Vicangelome on his first start for Ben Case. Current connections went to £50,000 to acquire him from Robert Tyner in May last year on the back of a narrow victory in a Wexford Handicap Hurdle. He races off a 10lb higher mark here but it seems he has been waited with in search of proper winter ground and he may just his ideal conditions here
Theatrebar had shown some fair form for Tom Symonds an few seasons back but looked an altogether different animal now in the care of Dan Skelton when returning from two years off the track at Sedgefield in November. He clearly has had his problems so it is no surprise to see him put away on the back of that and a 6lb rise by the assessor may not be enough to quite get to the bottom of him just yet. With taking Bridget Andrews’ 3lb claim into account, he races off just 10st here and will in every likelihood finish in the money.
Advice
LE ROCHER – 1pt win @ 6/4 (Paddy Power)
3.40 Doncaster – The Sky Bet Handicap Steeple Chase (Listed Race)
A field of 16 go to post for what looks another highly competitive renewal of the Sky Bet Chase and the talking horse in the lead up to the race has been handicap debutant Bigbadjohn. The eight-year-old has had a break since last seen finishing second to Thistlecrack in a Grade 2 novice event at Newbury’s Hennessy meeting. In truth, he was probably flattered by his proximity to the Gold Cup hope but it was still a very respectable effort. A mark of 136 could well underestimate him but I feel the bookies are running scared of the name “Thistlecrack” in his form and although he did account for subsequent winner Our Kaempfer when breaking his duck over fences in early November, it was only a match race and I don’t think that bears a great deal on the form line.
Last year’s winner Ziga Boy found it hard from a revised mark on the back of his success twelve months ago but showed signs of coming back into form when third over course and distance last month. He was well backed that day but lost little caste in defeat and could well be there or thereabouts off just 4lb higher than when accounting for Coologue in last year’s race Charlie Longsdon’s charge has been ultra-consistent throughout his career and scored in good style in a hot handicap at Cheltenham’s Showcase meeting in October. He has found life tougher since then and was well beaten from just 1lb higher at Newbury in December. The Chipping Norton handler looks to have more pressing claims with Long Lunch at the foot of the field, receiving weight from all but one of his rivals. The experienced eight-year-old notched up a double in the summer and has carried his form well into the winter months, finishing five lengths clear of Ziga Boy when narrowly out-pointed by No Duffer last time out. He was hit with a 5lb rise by the assessor for that which puts him on a career high mark but he really seems to be coming into his own now upped to three miles and could surprise a few at a big price.
Weight may well be a big factor here with only Calgary Bay carrying more than 11st 2lb to victory in the last ten years. The top weight trio all look to have their work cut out here with 11st 12lb on their backs although they can’t be discounted entirely. The Colin Tizzard string have been firing all season long in the big staying chases and Third Intention got the ball rolling for them back in October when landing the Grade 2 Old Roan Chase. He is only 2lb higher than when scoring in the Aintree contest but has never won over further than 2m 4 1/2f in 16 attempts.
Holywell’s credentials are there for all to see as a dual Cheltenham Festival winner and let’s not forget that he was heavily backed for the Grand National off a 1lb higher mark last April. We all know that he is a much better horse in the spring though so Tenor Nivernais likely rates the one with the most upside. The veteran had previously shown all his best form over shorter trips than this but shaped particularly well when a close-up third to Regal Encore in the Listed Silver Cup at Ascot in December.
The horse that finished just one place behind him at Ascot really caught my eye and I think ANOTHER HERO will run a big race here. Jonjo O’Neil’s charge is still pretty unexposed over fences with this being only his sixth start and connections evidently think a lot of him as he was pitched into the Irish Grand National on only his third attempt over the larger obstacles. He was badly hampered as stablemate Go Conquer came to grief at the first fence last time but travelled well throughout the race after that and had every chance traversing the last. The ground he lost early on was significant given he was only beaten by two and a half lengths at the finish and I believe he remains on a good mark despite being raised 2lb by the handicapper. One of the main factors with him is the ground and if conditions remain the same as at present (good), that will certainly aid his cause given his record on good ground or firmer reads four wins and three second from eight runs.
Somewhat surprisingly for a handicap, last time out winners have a very good record having landed three of the last four runnings. That bodes well for the triumvirate with a ‘1’ next to their names this afternoon, with Ballyboker Breeze looking like the most likely candidate of making the money. The lightly-raced nine-year-old has very few miles on the clock for a horse of his age, making only his fourth chase start here. He stayed on strongly to score at Bangor in December and already looks a much better chaser than hurdler but will have to find a bit more here now upped in class off a 10lb higher mark.
Potters Cross arrives here on the back of a victory in a competitive handicap at Newbury on New Year’s Eve and has been steadily progressive over fences since returning from injury in February last year. His handler Rebecca Curtis has mooted that he could be a National horse but he would likely need to win this to have a sniff of getting in the race and for all that he did the job nicely last time, with Tom Cannon replacing Mr James King in the saddle, he is effectively running off a 14lb higher mark.
Joint bottom weight Looking Well rates an interesting contender having not been seen since scoring at Kelso back in May. Sound underfoot conditions seem to be the key to him and he looks likely to get that here but needs a big step up to figure in a race of this nature off a 10lb higher mark.
A horse that I like a lot is Southfield Royale but my suspicion is that this, his first run for 277 days, could be used as a warm up for bigger targets in the spring. He comfortably accounted for the re-opposing Coologue off level weights in the Grade 2 December Novices’ Chase over course and distance last season and followed up with a solid second in the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase. A mark of 147 looks to be perfectly fair on his handicap debut and capable amateur James King has ridden a few winners for Neil Mulholland but a watching brief is the percentage call on this occasion. Look out for him in the Scottish National or bet365 Gold Cup at the end of the season though.
Talking of the Scottish National, last year’s winner Vicente lines up here but on the evidence shown so far this season, a 2lb drop in the weights may not be enough for him to enter the mix. He looks the stable second string on jockey bookings with Sam Twiston-Davies preferring to partner the versatile Caid du Berlais. He returned from a year and a half off the track in October and following a pipe-opener at Chepstow, struck over hurdles at Aintree on his next start. That was his first start over three miles so we now know he stays this far but he didn’t jump with a great deal of zeal back over fences at Ascot last time.
Warren Greatrex’s Out Sam has been a frustrating sort to follow since tackling handicaps but has been the subject of market support in the lead up to this contest. He at least showed a bit more when third at Kempton last time but this looks a much stronger race and there are one or two others with bigger upsides at present.
Advice
ANOTHER HERO – 0.75pts e/w @ 9/1 (Stan James) (4 places)
4.00 Cheltenham – Galliardhomes.Com Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2)
With the Festival in mind, there will also be plenty of eyes focussed on this race, the penultimate one of the day at Cheltenham, as ante-post favourite for the Stayers’ Hurdle Unowhatimeanharry bids to continue his winning sequence. Harry Fry’s nine-year-old has continued to improve in the last two seasons and has now won his last seven starts. He recorded a second Grade 1 success at Ascot in the Long Walk Hurdle last time and at this stage, he looks the one to beat in March. He does have to concede 4lb to most of his rivals here which should work as a leveller and I think there may be some legs in taking him on at around the 5/4 mark.
Ballyoptic is fancied in many quarters to give the favourite most to do having still been in contention when falling at Ascot last time. However, that seems to be his problem as he has now fallen on two of his last three starts at the final flight and the stamina-sapping nature of 3m around Cheltenham doesn’t augur well for him. I suspect that he would have given the favourite a race at Ascot had he stood up but it is impossible to say and given his jumping record, I think there are better options in the race.
West Approach was another who came to grief late on at Ascot, having looked as though he was going to post a career-best performance. The seven-year-old seemed to enjoy being ridden towards the head of affairs on that occasion and I think it is interesting that connections have booked Ruby Walsh to ride him here. Despite his fall, he was well-beaten before exiting proceedings and he would need to improve a good deal here to make the frame.
I think the one who could improve most from Ascot is UN TEMPS POUR TOUT who lost his position on the second circuit before running on strongly in the closing stages to finish third. The eight-year-old seemed to lose interest halfway through the race before staying on and it is no surprise to see the blinkers (which he has won in) refitted for this assignment. He made all in a 2m4f hurdle at Aintree in November to get the better of Mister Miyagi and I think Tom Scudamore will ride him further forward on Saturday. He does have plenty to find with both Unowhatimeanharry and Ballyoptic on that latest run, but I think he can step forward and he looks worth a small each-way wager at around 12/1.
Of the rest, Paul Nicholls’ Ptit Zig wouldn’t be without a squeak on his best form, but he ran a little below expectations in the Long Walk at Ascot. He chased home Thistlecrack in this race twelve months ago but looks to be up against it carrying a Grade 1 penalty.
A final one to mention is Nicky Henderson’s Kotkikova who has been blighted by the weather twice in the last week. She was due to contest the mares’ hurdle at Ascot last weekend and as we know the rearranged fixture at Huntingdon today also fell victim to the weather. She has therefore been re-routed here and connections expect her to improve for her run in Ireland over Christmas. For me, she seemed to get a little tired late on that day which is understandable on her first run of the season but she still has to prove that 3m is her trip. She might also appreciate a lot more rain than is forecast but she could be one to watch at a bigger price.
Advice
UN TEMPS POUR TOUT – 0.5pt e/w @ 14/1 (Betfair Sportsbook) (3 places)
4.15 Doncaster – Ford Windows 40th Anniversary EBF Mares’ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race.
Although an 18-runner Mares’ bumper may not initially stand out as a good race on any card, this does actually look as if some useful performers could be lurking in this, although we may well need an enigma machine to solve it.
Heading the weights is Warren Greatrex’s Ilovemints, who runs under a penalty for the second time after winning on debut at Bangor. Her first effort under a penalty wasn’t particularly encouraging as she finished well-beaten at Ascot and she’ll have to up her game again here to feature at the business end, even though Thomas Greatrex’s 7lb claim will help to level the playing field.
Nicky Henderson, like Warren Greatrex, usually has a superb record in these flat races, but his mare, Melangerie, was a very disappointing ninth on her debut in a bumper at Huntingdon, ten lengths behind the re-opposing Oh Michelle. Even though that was a Listed bumper and the five-year-old was certainly thrown in at the deep end, she was readily outpaced in the final quarter of the race and this half-sister to Cultivator will have to step up plenty for that experience. However you would expect her to do so and she might feature here with a hood added for the first time.
Oh Michelle will undoubtedly be popular as the most experienced mare in the line-up, her three bumper runs to date have yielded two second places and one respectable sixth of 17 in a Listed bumper at Huntingdon. She looks a decent performer and with Sam Twiston-Davies back in the plate, connections will be hoping she can break her duck here. Her second place behind Just A Thought is an interesting bit of form as the same horse defeated a couple of other runners in this race, Midnight Charm and Our Belle Amie, in a bumper at Hereford a month later.
Midnight Charm was fourth in that race, paying the price for chasing the potentially very good winner into the straight, but it was a very promising debut from Tom Symonds’ five-year-old despite weakening in the final couple of furlongs. She did get weight that day thanks to Ben Poste’s 3lb claim and was better positioned than some, so it’s certainly not beyond the realms of possibility that the horse three quarters of a length behind her that day, OUR BELLE AMIE, could reverse that form. Kim Bailey’s mare travelled sweetly through the race after being anchored in the rear of the field before her inexperience told in the final furlong, just fading out of it after looking a real danger turning in. That experience won’t have been lost on her; both mentally and fitness-wise, so I expect this Black Sam Bellamy mare to put up a very decent showing here for a stable that doesn’t often have runners in this type of race, but has already had a winner from its two bumper runners this season.
Richard Hobson isn’t known for his bumper winners, but Dame Rose looks as if she has a race in her in this sphere after finishing fifth in one of the better National Hunt Flat races this season at Worcester, won by Monty’s Award and with the likes of Eskendash, Old Harry Rocks and Getaway Whiskey in behind. Forza Milan was behind Dame Rose in that race and has gone on to finish second to two decent horses (Gayebury and Rather Be) in novice hurdles since, so the form looks strong. The filly did get plenty of weight that day, much less than she does here against her own sex, but she did have to go around the outside of the field after being held up in the rear of the contest and could have finished even closer to the winner. She’s another who may well run a decent race.
As for the unraced-under-rules contingent – Emma Lavelle’s Swatow looks an obvious contender, especially with JJ Burke taking the ride. Lavelle does well in this type of event and this mare has to be considered, as does her stablemate Majestic Moll, who is a half-sister to Chase End Charlie, but one who looks a bigger threat is the Kevin Frost-trained Redemption Song, who won the point-to-point race that recent impressive bumper winner, Perfect Harmony, fell at the last in. Although Redemption Song wouldn’t have won the race if Perfect Harmony had stood up, it’s an interesting form-line given that that gelding has already been mentioned for the Champion Bumper after his impressive debut win. She was receiving 10lb that day, which would have helped, but I think she could run OK at a big price here, as could Floral Bouquet, who has the services of Graham Lee to assist her.
Advice
OUR BELLE AMIE – 0.5pts e/w @ 14/1 (SkyBet, Paddy Power)
4.35 Cheltenham – Steel Plate And Sections Handicap Hurdle.
Interestingly, for a race that isn’t a big part of the racing calendar, this handicap does seem to throw up a few trends that the last 7-10 winners of the race stick to pretty rigidly on the whole.
Firstly, only one horse has carried more than 10st 12lb to victory in the last ten years – Ashley Brook, who carried 11-6 to victory in 2007. It does seem as if this race is used as a springboard for progressive young horses to rise in the weights, enabling them to get into bigger targets in the Spring. The likes of Presenting Copper (2009), Art Professor (2012), Lac Fontana (2014) and Solstice Star (2016) all went on to run well (Lac Fontana won the County Hurdle) at the Cheltenham Festival off higher marks after winning this. Those that fall by the wayside in this category include top weight Court Minstrel, who didn’t show much at Newbury last time out, Robinshill, beaten by Maestro Royal at Sandown last time, the promising Wait For Me who we may not see the best of until spring ground comes around and last year’s winner, Solstice Star.
Maestro Royal may not fall foul of this category, but he’s been raised 7lb in the weights for his neck defeat of Robinshill, 1lb more than that rival. If we are ruling out Nigel Twiston-Davies’ horse, it’s difficult to think that Nicky Henderson’s eight-year-old would again have him behind, taking into account Jamie Bargary’s 3lb claim on Robinshill which makes it a 4lb swing between the two, so Maestro Royal drops from the shortlist as collateral. He also doesn’t fit the profile of the last six winners, who were all five, six or seven-years-old – something that also puts a line through Man Of Plenty and Rockchasebullett, who were running from out of the weights anyway.
One that may have a chance of defying the weights trend is Harry Whittington’s Bigmartre, ridden this time around by Davy Russell – a very interesting booking indeed. He won on his last start at Kempton (more of which later) and looks to be back on an upward curve off a mark just 3lb higher. The stiff finish up the hill here will suit him, especially over two miles, while he seems to go on any ground (won on good & heavy), although a bit of cut could help him. He’s certainly one that will probably be aimed at a Festival handicap, so another good run here will help him to make sure he gets in and he can’t be ruled out at all.
It is also interesting that all of the last ten winners of this race have started the race at a price no bigger than 8/1, especially in a handicap such as this that always is very keenly contested with big fields. Max Do Brazil and Divine Spear tick all the other boxes apart from this and it will be interesting to see if there is some support on the day for either, but especially David Pipe’s French import, who might be well-handicapped off 128, even though he’s done most of his racing on very soft ground over further. Nicky Henderson’s horse won last time out with Ned Curtis on board and the partnership isn’t broken here, but it was hardly impressive and he’s gone up another 4lb in a better race, so it could prove difficult for him.
But the one who fits all the trends and looks to be on a lenient mark is Harry Fry’s DRUMCLIFF. With the six-year-old carrying just 10st 6lb off a mark of 127, he certainly fulfils the weight range and the ‘progressive young improving hurdler’ mould. His second place behind Bigmartre at Kempton last time was rather unlucky as he was hampered 2 out, leading to a fairly significant stumble, just as his rivals were hitting top speed. However, he rallied gamely and stormed home to take second, just a length behind the winner – both he and Bigmartre have only gone up 3lb for that run, so are certainly still feasibly handicapped. He has been a difficult ride in the past, but he seems to be cleaning up his act and could finally fulfil his early promise. Barry Geraghty will ride, something of a surprise given he’s riding Unowhatimeanharry who carries 11st 8lbs in the race before – perhaps an indicator of how much this horse is fancied. The market has already found the horse, being put in at just 5/1, but I don’t think this is bad value, even though the race is a competitive affair, DRUMCLIFF could go off at something closer to 7/2 or 3/1, so take your prices early as he’s sure to be popular in the ‘lucky last’. This half-brother to Simonsig certainly looks better than an 127-rated animal and he could well win this before going on to run well in a handicap at the Festival in six weeks’ time or even the Betfair Hurdle before that – I can’t see him out of the frame for the in-form Harry Fry yard.
Advice
DRUMCLIFF – 1pt e/w @ 5/1 (SkyBet) (4 places
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