SCILLY ISLES NOVICE CHASE TRENDS 2017

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The Betfred TV Scilly Isles Novice Chase takes placed on Saturday, 4th February. A grade 1 chase for novices, run over 2M 4½F. The race should provide some good pointers to the JLT Novice Chase at Cheltenham.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 2-0-6
6yo: 2-2-15
7yo: 5-1-20
8yo: 0-4-7
9yo: 1-0-2
10yo: 0-0-1
All 6 horse aged 5 or 6 to make the frame were French bred.
4 of 6 winners aged 7+ were Irish bred (other 2 French bred)

Gender
The have only been 2 mares (1-0-2) to run in this in past 10 years, Nadiya De La Vega (6th in 2011) and Gitane Du Berlais (1st in 2015).

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times since August (2 exception won their only start)
9 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time (exception was 3rd in a grade 1)
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 144+ last time
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 1 1/2F+ (7 of 10 had won over 2M 4F+)
8 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times over fences (2 exceptions run in just 1 chase, 1 won grade 2 and other won by 18 lengths)
8 of 10 winners had previously won a chase (2 exceptions had finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase)
7 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd in grade 1 or 2 chase (2 exceptions unbeaten in completed chases)
7 of last 9 winners had won a graded hurdle
4 of 9 winners at Sandown were previous course winners (3 of 4 exceptions were having their first course start and other was 2nd in grade 1 chase)

Other races
Berkshire Novice Chase winner (Clan Des Obeaux): 21 (1-1-2)
November Novice Chase winner (Le Prezien): 1 (1-0-1)
Rising Stars Novice Chase winner (Frodon): 3 (0-0-1)
Follow @Attheraces.com on Twitter Novice Chase winner (Baron Alco): 3 (0-0-1)
4 of 10 winners ran in Henry VIII Novice Chase, finishing 3212
2 of 10 winners ran in Dipper Novice Chase last time, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase, finishing R2
2 of 10 winners ran in Berkshire Novice Chase, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Tolworth Hurdle, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Cleeve Hurdle, finishing 22
2 of 10 winners ran in Kelso Hurdle, finishing 22
2 of 10 winners ran in World Hurdle, finishing 2P
Since 2005, record of 1st & 2nd from Dipper Novice Chase: 1111F (4-0-5)

Trainers
Nicky Henderson (3-2-8) trained the winner in 2010, 2013 & 2014.
Paul Nicholls (3-2-10) saddled 4 consecutive winners between 2006 & 2009.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-4) saddled the winner in 2016.
Phillip Hobbs (0-2-3) has saddled 2 runners-up in last 10 runnings.

Price
10 of 10 winners were priced 9/2 or shorter
All 10 winners came from first 3 in the betting, with the favourite winning 8 of last 10.
Favourites (8-1-11) have won 8 of last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 6.01.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- French bred aged 5 to 7 or Irish bred aged 7 or older
- Finished 1st or 2nd last time out (posting an RPR of 144+)
- Has won over 2M 3F+
- Run 2 to 5 times over fences (winning at least once or placed in a grade 1)
- Finished 1st or 2nd in a grade 1 or 2 chase (or unbeaten over fences)
- Previous course winner (or having first run here)
- Has won a graded hurdle
- Finished in first 2 in Tolworth, Kelso, Cleeve and/or Tolworth Hurdle in 2016
- Finished in first 2 in the Dipper and/or Berkshire Novice Chase
- Finished in first 3 in Henry VIII and/or Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase
- Trained by Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson
- Price 9/2 or shorter (favourite does very well)