HEROES HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2017

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The Betfred Mobile Heroes Handicap Hurdle takes place at Sandown on Saturday 4th February. A grade 3 handicap hurdle run over 2M 6F, in 2004 it was won by the mighty Baracouda, who shouldered top weight to victory, however that was result was very much out of the norm and most winners in the past 10 renewals have carried lower weights and were far less exposed. Philip Hobbs & Paul Nicholls have trained 6 of the last 9 winners. The 3 runnings between 2012 & 2014 were abandoned due to weather.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings (2004 to 2016):

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-4-18
6yo: 3-9-33
7yo: 3-1-31
8yo: 2-5-29
9yo: 2-1-16
10yo+: 0-3-13
All 10 winners aged 6 to 9
The older winners generally had shown high class form, as 3 of 4 winners aged 8+ were Baracouda (multiple grade 1 winner), Chief Yeoman (runner-up in grade 1 Triumph Hurdle) and Beshabar (grade 3 winner).

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
horses carrying 10-13 or more: 1-7-41
horses carrying 10-12 or less: 9-16-99
Last 9 winners carried 10-12 or less. Last winner to carry to carry over 10-12 was Baracouda, who won this under top weight in 2004.
Top Weights: 174496769P (1-1-10)

Official Ratings
horses rated 136 or higher: 1-9-46
horses rated 125 to 135: 8-10-72
horses rated 124 or less: 1-3-22
The last 9 winners were officially rated 123 to 135. The only winner rated higher than 135 in last 10 runnings was Baracouda (rated 170), when racing against 8 rivals, who were all racing from out of the handicap.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 last time out (exception fell in a Cheltenham handicap hurdle on New Year's Day)
10 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 on one or both of last 2 completed hurdles runs
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 125+ on last hurdles run (exception did so on penultimate completed hurdles run)
8 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times since August (2 exceptions had run just once)
7 of 10 winners had run 3 to 9 times over hurdles
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had 2 to 4 previous hurdle wins
8 of 10 winners had run in 1 to 3 handicap hurdles (2 exceptions had run in 9 & 21 handicap hurdles)
9 of 10 winners had won 2 or fewer handicap hurdles
7 of 10 winners were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers (2 of 3 exceptions had finished in first 2 in a grade 1)
3 of 10 winners were novice hurdlers
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+ (exception placed in handicap hurdles worth 16K+ over 2M 4F+ on both runs that season)
9 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or higher hurdler (exception had won 2 of 4 hurdles run, both in class 4)
7 of 10 winners had won or placed in a class 1 hurdle
10 of 10 winners had won a hurdle with 10 or more runners
8 of 10 winners began career in a NH race (1 exception rated 88 on flat and other had run on flat in France)

Other Races
Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle winner (Mr Mix): 8 (0-0-1)
Totepoolliveinfo.com H'cap Hurdle winner (Clondaw Kaempfer): P (0-0-1)
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in BetBright Casino H'cap Hurdle last time, finishing 5F
2 of 10 winners had won a 2M 5F Uttoxeter Novice hurdle earlier that season
2 of 10 winners had won a 2M 1F Exeter Novice hurdle during the previous calendar year

Trainers
Philip Hobbs (3-2-5) has gained 3 wins and 2 places from last 5 runners in this.
Paul Nicholls (3-2-9) has saddled 3 winners & 2 places from 8 runners in past 10 renewals.
Suzy Smith (1-1-5) trained a 20/1 winner in 2015 and 50/1 third in 2006.
Jonjo O’Neill (0-2-9) saddled 3rd in 2009 and 2nd in 2016.

Racing Tactics
6 of 10 winners were held up
4 of 10 winners tracked leaders

Price
No strong trends on prices, 7 of last 10 winners were priced 13/2 or shorter though 3 of last 5 winners were sent off 20/1, 10/1 & 16/1.
Favourites (3-2-10) have won 3 of last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 1.97.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 6 or 7 (or a previous graded hurdle winner aged 8+)
- Posted an RPR of 125+ last time out
- Finished 1st or 2nd on one or both of last 2 hurdles runs
- Run 2 to 4 times this season
- Run 3 to 9 times over hurdles (gaining 2 or 3 wins)
- Run in 3 or fewer handicap hurdles (winning 2 or less)
- First or Second season hurdler (novices do well)
- Won over 2M 4F+
- Carrying 10-12 or less
- Officially rated 123 to 135
- Won a hurdles race with 10+ runners
- Had first ever start in a point to point, bumper or hurdle (or on flat in France)
- Won a class 3 or higher hurdle (ideally won or placed in a class 1)
- Trained by Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs or Suzy Smith