TIED COTTAGE CHASE TRENDS 2017

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The Boylesports Tied Cottage Chase is a 2 mile grade 2 Chase for 5 year olds and upwards and takes place at Punchestown on Sunday 5th February. This race was first run in 1999 as a novice chase but was made into its present incarnation in 2003. It was won twice by Moscow Flyer, who went on to win the Queen Mother Champion Chase on his next start on both occasions and it has also been the prep race for the past 2 Irish Queen Mother winners, Big Zeb and Sizing Europe. Douvan could well use this as his final run before Cheltenham.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
7yo: 1-0-4
8yo: 1-1-11
9yo: 3-3-19
10yo: 4-2-11
11yo+: 1-2-9
No strong trend to go on with ages of winners, though 7 of last 10 winners were aged 9 or 10.
Last 2 winners aged 11 had won a previous renewal.

Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in one of their last two completed chase starts (3 exceptions posted an RPR of 166+ last time)
7 of 10 winners (last 6) posted an RPR of 161+ last time out
10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times that season
8 of 10 runners had run in the past 50 days (2 exceptions ran in the Tingle Creek last time out)
10 of 10 winners had run in 9 to 22 chases
9 of 10 winners were 2nd, 3rd or 4th season chasers
7 of 10 winners had previously won at Punchestown
8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 (1 exception had finished 2nd in 4 grade 1 chases)

Other Races
Punchestown Champion Chase winner (Douvan): F1211 (3-0-5)
PP Dial A Bet Chase winner (Douvan):1F222132 (2-3-8)
Hilly Way Chase winner (Douvan): 53211 (2-1-5)
Previous season's Racing Post Novice Chase winner (Douvan): 31 (1-0-2)
Webster Cup winner (Smashing): 41 (1-0-2)
7 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Punchestown Champion Chase, finishing 23121F1
6 of 10 winners ran in the Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase, finishing 142132
5 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Queen Mother, finishing PF612
4 of 10 winners ran in the Fortria Chase, finishing 1312
4 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Tied Cottage, finishing F231
3 of 10 winners ran in the Normans Grove Chase last time, finishing 111
3 of 10 winners ran in John Durkan Punchestown Chase, finishing 441
3 of 10 winners ran in Clonmel Oil Chase, finishing 113
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Dan Moore Memorial H'cap Chase, finishing 31
2 of 10 winners ran in the Tingle Creek, finishing 41
2 of 10 winners ran in Gowran Park Champion Chase, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Irish Arkle, finishing PF
2 of 10 winners ran in Hilly Way Chase, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in Webster Cup, finishing 21

Trainers
Willie Mullins (3-1-10) trained Golden Silver to win this in 2011, Arvika Ligeonniere to take it in 2014 & Felix Yonger to win in 2016.

Price
9 of 10 winners were priced 7/2 or below
9 of 10 winners came from first 3 in the betting and the only exception was in 2007 when the favourite was brought down.
Favourites (6-2-10) have won 6 of last 10 runnings and show a level stakes profit of 0.41.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Has last run in the past 40 days (ideally winning)
- Posted an RPR of 161+ last time
- Run 2 to 5 times this season
- Run in 9 to 22 chases
- Won a grade 1 chase (ideally multiple grade 1’s)
- Ran in 2016 Queen Mother and/or Punchestown Champion Chase
- First 3 in Fortria, Tingle Creek and/or PP Dial-A-Bet Chase this season
- Won the Normans Grove, Hilly Way and/or Gowran Park Champion
- First 3 in 2016 Tied Cottage and/or Clonmel Oil Chase
- Trained by Willie Mullins
- Priced 7/2 or lower