*IRISH GOLD CUP TRENDS 2017

[ganjaman2]

The Stan James Irish Gold Cup (formerly the Irish Hennessy) takes place on Sunday, 12th February, at Leopardstown. A race with a tremendous history, it has been won by some of the best Irish chasers of recent times, including Florida Pearl and Beef Or Salmon. Willie Mullins’ recent record has been strong, though British trained-runners have also been faring well in the race recently, when they’ve been represented.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-1-1
7yo: 2-1-7
8yo: 3-6-20
9yo: 3-3-20
10yo: 1-1-11
11yo+: 1-1-12
horses aged 6 to 9 have a combined record of 8-11-48
horses aged 10 or older have a combined record of 2-2-23
Since 2000, the 4 winners aged older than 9 were Florida Pearl in 2004 (had won the race 3 times previously) and Beef Or Salmon in 2006 & 2007 (his 2nd & 3rd successes in the race) and Carlingford Lough (2016) who had won the previous season’s renewal.

Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last completed start (3 exceptions finished 4th, 5th & 6th in Lexus)
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 157+ on their last completed start (exception won previous running)
10 of 10 winners had run since Christmas
10 of 10 winners had run 1 to 3 times over fences since August
9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase (exception Quel Esprit was going well in a grade 1 when brought down)
8 of 10 winners had previously won at Leopardstown (2 exceptions: Neptune Collonges fallen 2 out when still going well in Lexus and Joncol close 3rd in the Lexus on only course start)
9 of 10 winners had won over 3M (1 exception placed in the Lexus last time)

Other Races
Previous year's winner (Carlingford Lough): 15631 (2-1-5)
Growise Champion Novice Chase winner (Zabana): 111U (3-0-4)
John Durkan Chase winner (Djakadam): 112 (2-0-3)
Lexus Chase winner (Outlander): 212 (1-2-3)
JNWine Champion Chase winner (Valseur Lido): 17 (1-1-2)
Punchestown Gold Cup winner (Carlingford Lough): 144 (1-0-3)
Troytown Chase winner (Empire Of Dirt): 2 (0-1-1)
Imperial Call Chase winner (Fine Rightly): 27 (0-1-2)
Woodlands Park 100 Club Novice Chase winner (Roi Des Francs): 26 (0-1-2)
Ryanair Gold Cup winner (Kylemore Lough): 25 (0-0-2)
Kinloch Brae Chase winner (Sizing John): 44 (0-0-2)
The last 5 RSA Chase winners to run in this have been Florida Pearl 1st in 1999, Rule Supreme 1st in 2005, Cooldine 2nd in 2010, Bostons Angel 6th in 2012 & Lord Windermere 6th in 2014
One Jewson winner - Sir Des Champs won this in 2013
8 of 10 winners ran in the Lexus Chase last time, finishing 23F3U456
4 of 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing 0039
3 of 10 winners ran in the race the previous season, finishing 121
3 of 10 winners ran in the John Durkan, finishing 112
2 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Gold Cup, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in the JNWine Champion Chase, finishing 1U
5 of 5 winners, which ran in a novice chase the previous season, ran in Growise Champion Novice Chase, finishing 31B11
2 of 5 winners, which ran in a novice chase the previous season, ran in previous Nas Na Riogh Novice Chase, finishing 11
2 of 5 winners, which ran in a novice chase the previous season, ran in previous RSA Chase, finishing F6

Trainers
Willie Mullins (3-2-13) has won 8 of the last 17 renewals, including 3 of the last 5 renewals in which he’s saddled a runner, and he may have won it again last year but for Valseur Lido unseating at the last.
John Kiely (2-0-2) has saddled Carlingford Lough to win last 2 renewals.
Stuart Crawford (0-1-1), Jim Culloty (0-1-2) & Noel Meade (0-1-5) have each saddled a placed finisher in past 2 runnings.
British trained runners (2-4-9) have won 2 of the 6 renewals since 2007, in which they’ve been represented. 6 of their last 9 runners made the places.

Price
8 of 10 winners were priced 11/2 or shorter
Last Instalment’s (at 8/1 in 2014) & Carlingford Lough (at 20/1 in 2016) have been the only 2 winners over 11/2 this century.
Favourite (5-2-10) has a fairly good record, winning 5 of last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 0.12.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 6 to 9 (or a previous winner of the race)
- Finished in the first 3 on last completed chase start
- Posted an RPR of 157+ last time
- Has run since Christmas
- Run in 1 to 3 chases this season
- Previously won a grade 1 chase
- Won over 3M to 3M 1F
- Previously won at Leopardstown (or placed in Lexus last time)
- Finished in first 3 in 2016 Punchestown Gold Cup or Growise Champion Novice Chase
- Ran in 2016 Cheltenham Gold Cup or RSA Chase
- Finished in the first 2 in last year’s race and/or 2016 John Durkan Memorial Chase
- Finished in the first 6 or fell in the Lexus Chase last time out
- Trained by Willie Mullins, John Kiely or in Britain