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    Default Sandown, Musselburgh and Wetherby - Saturday 4/2/2017

    1.15 Sandown Park – The Betfred “Treble Odds On Lucky 15s” Handicap Steeple Chase.



    Only a select field of seven lines up here but it still looks to be an ultra-competitive affair with a quarter of veterans leading the charge.

    Venetia Williams has held all the aces in the last couple of years and looks to have a solid chance once again with top weight Bright New Dawn. The ten-year-old had been a consistent campaigner in Ireland and shaped well on his first run for new connections over course and distance last month. He travelled well for a long way and only tired into fourth late on, which was largely expected on his first run for nine months. He remains on the same mark so with that run under his belt, a bold showing is expected.

    However, it won’t be an easy task conceding weight to the rest of the field and there are some in-form rivals that potentially look better treated. One of those is GREY GOLD who is fancied to run a big race on the back of his respectable runners-up effort at Wetherby last time out. He looked under pressure a fair way out but stuck to his guns admirably and just couldn’t quite catch Just Cameron on the run-in with his rival getting first run. The twelve-year-old won this contest back in 2014 where the race turned out to be a real slog in testing conditions, and with similar expected again here, he should be right in his element.

    The biggest threat will likely come in the shape of Bold Henry who put in a much improved showing when second over course and distance latest (Bright New Dawn 4th). He is a horse that has had a high level of ability throughout his career but has proven very fragile and has been plagued with injuries and problems over the years. If turning up 100%, he will certainly be there or thereabouts but there is always that nagging doubt in the back of the mind about his wellbeing and the fact remains that he is still 6lb higher than his highest winning mark.


    Rounding off ‘Dad’s Army’ is Pearls Legend who hasn’t been seen since a disappointing showing at Aintree in early November. John Spearing’s charge had proven consistent in top level two mile chases for a number of years so it was a tad surprising that he tailed in last of the seven runners on his seasonal bow, looking under pressure from a fair way out. The fact that he has been off the track since then does suggest that all may not have been well and while it has to be taken on trust that he is back firing on all cylinders, a race of this ilk is well within his compass if in top form.


    Dream Bolt looks a likely outsider on paper but with conditions that will, in all probability, be pretty testing, his weight of 10st 1lb is an attractive proposition. The former pointer notched up a quick-fire double a couple of summers back and completed the treble after more than a year off the track at Chepstow last month. That was a pleasing return from injury and while he races off a 6lb higher mark here, there could well be more to come from him. He stayed on well to deny the re-opposing Ubaltique by a length and with a further 4lb pull at the weights with that rival now (who has since gone in at Haydock), he looks set to confirm the placings.

    Completing the field is Ultragold who could well be set for a return to form now dropping back to the minimum trip. Colin Tizzard’s charge struck over the extended two miles at Newbury’s Hennessy Meeting back in November but found life tougher upped to 2m3f after that. While this looks at least a more suitable challenge, there are one or two others with more upside in this field.


    Advice


    GREY GOLD – 1pt win @ 6/1 (Betfair & Paddy Power)



    1.40 Wetherby – Totescoop6 The Millionaire Maker Handicap Chase.


    Kim Bailey’s Red Spinner heads the weights for this competitive-looking handicap chase over just short of two and a half miles. His close second at Newbury behind Roman Flight was a very good battling effort and a rise of just a pound in the weights shouldn’t stop him from running well again on its own. However, this race has been won by a horse carrying more than 11st 3lb just once since 2007 and on this softer surface; he may find it difficult to give that weight to his rivals.

    Doctor Phoenix was also a good second on his last run, just failing to reel in Yorkist over two miles at this track. The step up in trip on soft ground should definitely help the horse to keep improving but he’s in a similar boat to Red Spinner in that he’ll have plenty of weight to carry with some progressive horses lurking beneath him in the handicap.

    One who will probably not enjoy the trip or ground that much is Dresden, trained by Henry Oliver. You can be sure that a visit to the Grand Annual at the Cheltenham Festival is very much on his agenda, so this may be just a prep run to keep him ticking over for the spring. Hainan may also be worth swerving here despite winning very well last time out at this venue, over three miles. The handicapper has absolutely hammered him for that, giving the six-year-old a 15lb rise in the weights to contend with, something that could anchor him over this shorter trip.

    The trip won’t hold any fears for Dan Skelton’s winning pointer Oldgrangewood, who has already won two of his three chase starts and it might have been three if he hadn’t been brought down at Aintree. He won well over C&D last time out in a Novices’ Handicap Chase and has only been raised 4lb in the weights, so he should go well again here. It is a step up in class to be taking on more seasoned handicappers but he showed a good attitude last time out, is certainly unexposed and improving over fences and will be there or thereabouts here.

    Somchine is in excellent form at the moment for trainer Seamus Mullins, hasn’t been out of the first three in his last eight races and has earned this step up in class, but after a 5lb hike for his last win in a weak-looking Class 3 handicap chase, it could be too much to ask for him to continue his good run off a career-high mark.

    One horse who has been highly thought of throughout his career, only for problems and issues to halt his progress, is West Wizard, now with Paul Morgan after leaving the Henderson and then Twiston-Davies yards earlier on in his racing life. Morgan does seem to have lit a fire under the eight-year-old though, finishing second and then running out a good winner of a noivices’ handicap chase on soft ground at Ffos Las on his last two starts. Neither of those races were particularly high-class, but a mark of 122 clearly underestimated the horse and he duly took advantage. There could be plenty more improvement to come if the horse stays sound and an 8lb rise for that win might not be enough to stop him, but there are a couple of worries here for me. Firstly, he doesn’t have the services of the superb Davy Russell again here, Tom O’Brien rides, and a comment made after his latest win by his trainer, talking about how they might look at his wind is very unsettling, suggesting Russell heard a noise. He could have plenty more to come but is a risky proposition at a short enough price.

    One who comes with risks attached, but the price reflects that, is the Philip Hobbs-trained ATIRELARIGO, who was last seen falling at the second fence in a handicap chase at Sandown. In his four starts over fences, he’s been tailed off 10th of 13 at Kempton at the end of last season, unseated at the third at the same venue on his seasonal reappearance and then won well off a mark of 119 at Chepstow over this trip before falling last time out. That win at the Welsh venue was over Tornado In Milan, who hacked up at Wincanton over hurdles this week off a mark of 134, 2lb higher than from which he was second to the selection at Chepstow over fences. The pair pulled way clear of the rest in that race and it could well be a sneak peek into the potential that I believe this horse has. Hobbs spoke of how he wasn’t a healthy horse last year, so we should start to see the best of him now that he’s physically able to show his true ability and I have no doubt that he will have improved plenty under the care of Hobbs. The seven-year-old could be very well handicapped off a mark of 124 and if he puts in a clear round, his light weight and ability to handle very soft ground should see him go close – he’s surely worth a small investment given the rather tight prices of the market principals.


    Advice


    ATIRELARIGO – 1pt e/w @ 15/2 (bet365)




    2.05 Musselburgh – The bet365 Edinburgh National Handicap Steeple Chase.


    This race looks a terrific addition to the calendar and the forecast good ground makes it a far more attractive proposition than other races of this nature in the North. It gives those entered in the Grand National earlier in the week a chance to sample a proper stamina test and even catch the eye of the handicapper in an attempt to boost their chances of making the final cut.


    That last point is very relevant when it comes to ALVARADO, who narrowly missed out last year having finished fourth to Many Clouds the previous year. The twelve-year-old will likely not have many more chances left in his career to get in the Aintree spectacular and his current mark of 135 would need a major hike from the assessor to get anywhere near involved. He has been campaigned with April in mind in the last two seasons and when things didn’t quite go to plan last year, he almost gained compensation when staying on well to chase Vicente home in the Scottish National. He wasn’t disgraced when sixth at Cheltenham’s Open Meeting on his return, staying on at the finish and didn’t get past the second in the Becher so, as long as there are no ill effects from that fall, he arrives here fresh and likely in good form. Off the same mark as when runner-up at Ayr, he has a massive shout.


    One that appeals at a big price is Valleyofmilan on the back of his pillar-to-post win at Ludlow a couple of weeks ago. The ten-year-old is a thoroughly sound jumper and will be suited by the conditions underfoot, the firmer the better for him. A 5lb rise for his latest effort seems pretty fair and although he races off a 6lb higher mark here due to being 1lb out of the handicap, I don’t think that will affect matters too much in the grand scheme of things. Carrying 10st can only be a good thing in a marathon contest such as this and with Donald McCain usually a man to follow at Musselburgh, he could well outrun his odds.


    Another trainer who has a penchant for Musselburgh winners is Lucinda Russell and she runs a pair at the foot of the weights from out of the handicap. Itstimeforapint rates her best chance of finishing in the money having finished a close-up third in the North Yorkshire Grand National last time out. The nine-year-old is the sole distance winner in the field, and that was in heavy ground, so at least we know there are no doubts about him getting home. Present Lodger steps up markedly in trip but needs to improve bundles for that to figure.


    Full Jack is also operating from out of the weights and has had a mixed campaign so far. Pauline Robson commenced his season in a pair of hunter chases and following a dismal showing in a handicap chase at Carlisle on his return from five months off in October, he has since put in a couple of improved efforts over hurdles. He has scope in a race of this nature having finished second in the Highland National a couple of years ago but a return to the larger obstacles remains a slight worry (had been operating on a 10lb lower mark over hurdles).

    Although the good ground will be a help, it still looks to be a daunting task for Just A Par to defy top weight. The 2015 bet365 Gold Cup winner has to concede at least 11lb to the rest of the field and while Harry Cobden’s 3lb claim does ease the burden somewhat, he still looks up against it.


    Nick Kent’s Gonalston Cloud has experienced a meteoric rise in just over a year and even at the tender age of ten, he still looks to be improving. He landed a Catterick handicap chase off a mark of just 92 last December and now, seven races and three wins later, finds himself racing off a 41lb higher mark. That does look fairly off-putting on the face of things but his latest second ahead of the re-opposing Itstimeforapint at Catterick was a career-best and he looked to be doing all his best work at the finish. Cheekpieces have seemed to eke out a bit more improvement on his last two starts and retained again here, he must be feared.


    The one that could cause most problems to the selection is Five In A Row but he has to bounce back from a pretty poor showing in the London National at Sandown in early December to figure here. Although officially good to soft, the ground was pretty holding and that could have been the reason for his uncharacteristically shoddy display. He was the winner of the Scottish Future Champions Novices’ Chase at this very fixture last year and progressed nicely throughout the campaign. He returned with a respectable runners-up effort in the Durham National back in October and lining up off the same mark, he would have to enter calculations.


    Vying for favouritism at the time of writing is the youngest horse in the field, Dancing Shadow. The eight-year-old positively sluiced up at Doncaster in early December and while that was his maiden win, he has finished in the frame in each of his completed chase starts. Good ground and a step up in trip worked a treat for him last time and while this is a much bigger test, in terms of stamina and class (up 9lb), he has a fair chance of making the frame once more.


    Beeves has been an admirable campaigner over the years and can generally be relied upon to run his race. He found a chunk of improvement upon joining Jennie Candlish mid-way through last season and landed a pair of handicap chases at Warwick and Hexham in the spring/summer. His performances so far this term have been well below-par however and given the handicapper hasn’t loosened his grip at yet, he could be set for another struggle here.


    It’s been 16 months since Azure Fly last got his head in front but he has been knocking on the door of late, finishing in the first three on each of his last six starts. His latest third in the Sussex National at Plumpton last month was a particularly pleasing effort given the ground was against him that day and allowed to race off the same mark here with conditions more to his liking, he has a fair each-way shout.


    Advice


    ALVARADO – 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (Betway)




    3.00 Sandown – Betfred Mobile Heroes Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)



    Since this race was increased to its current distance in 1993, only three horses have carried more than 11 stone to victory and one of those was the brilliant Baracouda. That’s not good news for the Paul Nicholls trained Mr Mix, who, despite being well-fancied for a yard that has won three of the last seven renewals of the race, will have to defy top weight here. His win over Ruacana wasn’t the most clear-cut effort, even though it did suggest this trip would suit – although you’d expect him to improve and Stan Sheppard’s 5lb claim will help, he’ll have to have come on a lot to defy a further 6lb rise in the weights in a race where it can turn into a really attritional affair.


    Stablemate Connetable is another who will have to defy the weight trend, while the in-form KK Lexion and Colin Tizzard’s Valhalla also may find it tough to concede the weight in this soft ground. Billy No Name would also fall into this category but Angus Cheleda’s 10lb claim drops him below the 11 stone threshold and he’ll certainly enjoy this testing surface. However, he was a long way behind a couple of his rivals here at Chepstow last time out and even though with his jockeys’ claim he will have an 18lb swing in the weights with Rolling Dylan, who was a close second there, he’ll have to have improved to close the almost 20 length gap that was between the two there.


    Speaking of Rolling Dylan, he’s been installed as the favourite for this after that very good run at Chepstow, where he was just touched off by Shantou Bob. However, he has gone up 8lb in the weights and will need the fitting of cheekpieces for the first time to have an effect to defy that in what will be very testing ground. He does go well in soft ground though, and he’s never been out of the first three in any race under rules or in his sole point-to-point run. This is another jump up in class, but with Richard Johnson on board once again, he looks as if he’s got a very solid chance and is a justified favourite.


    Another horse that’s been popular in the market is the Harry Fry-trained Behind Time, who despite being 13lb well-in at Newbury last time, couldn’t take advantage and win a Pertemps qualifier. He’s up to a mark of 128 now and combined with looking not at all straightforward on that Newbury run, this looks a big task for him – maybe being given a more prominent, stronger ride would help and you do wonder whether this unexposed horse could be one of JP McManus’ festival handicappers, in which case he’d need to be running very well here to go up sufficiently in the weights for a race like the Pertemps.


    Desert Sensation is also a very unexposed contender for Dr Richard Newland and looks to be a horse on a steep upward curve at staying trips. He was last seen finishing five lengths behind Shantou Bob and Rolling Dylan at Chepstow, but with an extra 5lb swing in the weights with that re-opposing contender, you would expect that gap to be closed given the progress that this five-year-old has shown in the past few months, going from an official mark of 98 to 120. This is clearly his toughest task to date, but his progressive profile and liking for three miles and soft ground should see him go well under Jamie Moore.

    However, there is another progressive, unexposed contender in the field that catches my eye and looks to be primed for a big run on his first step up to Graded company. Nigel Twiston-Davies has his horses in good form at the moment, as shown by the likes of Wholestone and Foxtail Hill at Cheltenham last week, and EL TERREMOTO could be the latest from the Gloucestershire stable to take one of the big races on a Saturday. The five-year-old has looked an excellent French purchase from owners Simon Munir and Isaac Souede and looks as if he will be the latest to run well in those colours at a meeting those owners do seem to run some of their good horses at (Bristol De Mai, Peace and Co etc. last year). He’s already proven himself on soft and heavy ground, winning in dire conditions at Haydock off a mark of 126 (Connetable very well beaten in behind) and then finishing a close third (I think!) in the fog at that same venue off today’s mark.


    He was behind Clyne there, who ran a superb race in defeat to The New One next time out, and Le Rocher, who won well at Uttoxeter on his subsequent run. EL TERREMOTO has already won over two miles and six furlongs this season, so you wouldn’t expect this extra furlong to be an issue, especially given Twiston-Davies’ horses are renowned for their staying power, while his mark of 132 certainly doesn’t look prohibitive given that last effort behind two decent horses. He looks a progressive type who handles most ground and you would think that he would be one who is aimed at one of the handicaps at the Cheltenham Festival, so winning here would be very helpful in order for his mark to get towards 140 and a berth in one of those valuable contests.

    Advice


    EL TERREMOTO – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (Paddy Power) (4 places)




    3.35 Sandown – Betfred Masters Handicap Chase.


    The penultimate race at Sandown on Saturday is this 3m handicap chase and Otago Trail is likely to be high on many shortlists having chased home Bristol De Mai a couple of weeks ago. Venetia Williams’ nine-year-old seems to relish soft ground and although he was no match for that rival at Haydock, he finished a good way clear of the third home. He is likely to get his favoured conditions once again here but he has to concede considerable weight to a few of his rivals here and he could find things tough.


    Irish Saint has form around here but he still has to prove he stays three miles following three attempts at the trip. Not for the first time he weakened at the second last at Ascot last time and although he would be of interest in terms of ability, I doubt that he will see out this longer trip.

    One of the least exposed in the field is the novice Rock The Kasbah who got off the mark at the first attempt over the larger obstacles in October. Since then he has found himself chasing home the likes of O O Seven and Politologue and now steps into handicap company. He won a valuable handicap over hurdles off 144 last season and runs off 146 here which suggests that in terms of handicapping, he is far from out of it.

    There are two course and distance winners in the line-up, the first of which is Charlie Longsdon’s Loose Chips who won here in November and was a fine third off his elevated mark behind Pete The Feat last time. His trainer noted after that run that the eleven-year-old had only ten days training prior to that effort so he is entitled to improve for that run. He is in here off the same mark but I wonder whether he might be vulnerable to one of the less exposed types in the field.

    Jonjo O’Neill’s Beg To Differ also has a course and distance success to his name and was last seen finishing fourth in the Welsh National behind Native River. That was his first solid run for a while after a couple of disappointing efforts and the cheekpieces he wore that day are left on here. He has actually been dropped 3lb following his Welsh National run and it is hard to see him being out of the frame.

    However, the one I like the look of is ANTONY who looked a handicapper firmly on the up when winning at Fontwell and Ascot in October. He disappointed when favourite at Newbury next time but that run may have just come soon enough for him. He won over fences here as a novice back in 2015 and the return to 3m is likely to also suit him on Saturday. The soft ground should be no problem to him and on 10st 11lb, he gets weight from all but two of the field. His trainer Gary Moore has a fine record at Sandown in recent seasons and I fancy this improving seven-year-old to run a big race on his return to action.


    Advice


    ANTONY – 1pt win @ 5/1 (Betway)



    4.25 Wetherby – Wetherbyracing.co.uk Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race.


    Plenty of very interesting newcomers in this bumper, but they’ll all have a fairly stiff target to aim at with Eskendash in the field. After finishing second in all three of his bumper efforts so far, Pam Sly will be desperate for him to break that run; especially given he was so close to winning in the last two. The worry would be that he’s never run of soft ground like it’s likely to be by the end of the day on Saturday and he’s very much exposed now compared to some of the other runners.

    Pride Of Pemberley is another runner in the field here with some rare bumper experience and it looks as if it’s decent from to his name after finishing fifth in a race won by I Know U Too Well, who looks a very useful prospect. The fourth in that race, Duke Debarry, ran well enough in a Warwick bumper last week, so given the usual improvement for a first racecourse experience, you would expect Jamie Snowden’s horse to be there or thereabouts. The booking of Aidan Coleman is a positive too, so this horse should go well if he doesn’t have to make the running again for the field.

    There are four ex-pointers in the field and these are the four most interesting contenders to my eye. It’s Your Move was third in his first run in an Irish point in November, but was quickly snapped up for £50,000 by owner P J Martin and sent to Brian Ellison. The Flemensfirth gelding is a brother to Winningtry, the talented Paul Nicholls inmate, who won his bumper on the first attempt on soft ground at Wincanton. With his sire a soft-ground influence and his promising point run on soft ground, you would expect this five-year-old to handle conditions better than some others and should go well as a result. Nathan Moscrop takes a valuable 5lb off the horse’s back for this rules debut and I think he’ll go well.

    who may not handle conditions is the Kim Bailey-trained Mon Palois, who ran on good to firm and good ground in his points. Those races haven’t worked out particularly well just yet, but the percentage play would be to leave this one alone hailing from a yard not known for its bumper winners.


    Out Of Style runs in the Rucker colours for trainer Fergal O’Brien who has had an excellent season so far, in bumpers especially, so this horse has to be considered. However, the point-to-point it won in Ireland was run on good ground and lacking in depth, with the second and third in the race now rated just 93 and 100 over hurdles and even though he did win the race very easily, it does look shaky form. Jockey Conor Shoemark has already ridden an O’Brien-trained bumper winner this season though, so he’s not without hope.

    Arguably the most impressive pointer to be running here is OSCAR MOR, a £50,000 Highflyer Bloodstock purchase in April, now trained by Warren Greatrex. His march point win was a very impressive effort, beating Jerrysback by eight lengths on soft/heavy ground – something that will stand him in good stead for the test here. He travelled well throughout the race so you’d hope he’d be more than just a stayer, while the second placed horse won on his hurdling debut this week at Plumpton, cruising clear in heavy ground in the JP McManus colours – which is a pointer in itself as to how highly this horse could be regarded. Warren Greatrex has a superb record in this type of race, with 15 winners and 17 placed horses from 58 runners in bumpers and he has a good record when teaming up with Gavin Sheehan in these races too (5-21, 24%), so everything points to a very bold show.

    Advice

    OSCAR MOR – 1pt win @ 15/8 (Paddy Power)

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (3rd February 2017)  


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