The Betfair Hurdle (formerly the Totesport Trophy) is one of the major handicap hurdles on the British national hunt calendar and takes place at Newbury on Saturday 11th February. The race is generally won by a less exposed hurdler, the last 10 winners had run in 10 or fewer hurdles races prior to landing this, with 5 of the last 7 being novice hurdlers.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings (2005-2016):

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-0-2
5yo: 6-14-71
6yo: 4-7-60
7yo: 0-0-36
8yo: 0-4-22
9yo: 0-2-13
10yo+: 0-2-9
5 & 6 year olds have taken the last 10, from just under 62% of total runners. The last winner aged older than 6 was Geos in 2004, when winning the race for a second time as a 9yo.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
horses carrying 10-10 or more: 3-15-107
horses carrying 10-9 or less: 7-14-106
The last 7 winners were allotted 10-5 to 11-2. The only 3 winners, to carry over 11-2 in the past 20 years, had all won a handicap hurdle at class 2 or higher (posting RPR of 150+) last time out.
Top weight: 0P20B75007 (0-1-10)
horses carrying a penalty (0-3-10) won this in 2002 and have seen 3 of their last 10 make the frame.

Official Ratings
horses rated 144 or more: 3-5-37
horses rated 131 to 143: 5-21-140
horses rated 130 or lower: 2-3-36
2 of last 4 winners rated 144+ had won a grade 1 hurdle while the other 2 had been placed in a graded NH race.
Last 3 winners rated 132 or lower were trained by Gary Moore.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (5 won)
10 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in 1 of their last 3 hurdles starts
8 of 10 winners had run no more than 4 times since August (2 exceptions had run 6 times)
10 of 10 winners had run in 10 or fewer hurdles
10 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap hurdles
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 handicap hurdle
10 of 10 winners were first or second season hurdlers
6 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a hurdles race worth 22K+ (4 exceptions were novice hurdlers)

Other Races
Betfred "Happy 50th John McKenna" Novice Hurdle winner (Charlemar): 101 (2-0-3)
Previous year's Adonis Hurdle winner (Zubayr): 21033 (1-3-5)
Previous season's Leamington Novice Hurdle winner (Thomas Hobson): 2 (0-1-1)
Dovecote Novice Hurdle winner (Winter Escape): 4 (0-1-1)
32Red on the App Store Handicap Hurdle winner (Bigmartre): 02 (0-1-2)
Read Paul Nicholls Exclusively On Betfair H'cap Hurdle winner (Clyne): U0 (0-0-2)
Steel Plate And Sections Handicap Hurdle winner (William H Bonney): 70 (0-0-2)
2 of 10 winners ran in Jumeirah Hotels & Resorts December Handicap Hurdle, finishing 73
2 of 10 winners ran in Ascot William Hill Handicap Hurdle, finishing 09
2 of 5 novice hurdle winners ran in Ascot Racecourse Novice Hurdle, finishing 12
2 of 5 novice hurdle winners ran in Betfred Happy 50th John McKenna Novice Hurdle, finishing 11
2 of 6 winners aged 5 ran in Anniversary Hurdle, finishing 19

1 winner in 2015.0147re: 4-7-44ed finisher in last 10 runnings. 3 renewals. 2 of last 4 winners of Steel Plate And Sections Handicap Hurdle, to run in this, have won it.

Trainers
Gary Moore (3-1-11) has trained 3 of the last 10 winners. All 3 were aged 5 or 6 and they went off at 50/1, 14/1 & 20/1.
Paul Nicholls (1-3-14) trained the winner in 2012 and saddled a placed finisher in 3 of last 4 renewals.
Nicky Henderson (1-2-29) trained the winner in 2013.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-1-7) & Nick Williams (1-0-2) have trained the winners in 2014 & 2016 respectively.
David Pipe (0-6-15) has seen 6 of his last 11 runners make the places, including runner-up in 2 of last 3 runnings.
Philip Hobbs (0-3-12) hasn’t won any of the last 10 runnings but has seen 9 of his last 14 runners finishing in the top seven, 5 getting placed, including a placed finisher in 2 of last 3 years.
Alan King (0-2-11) has saddled 2 placed finisher in last 10 runnings.
Harry Whittington (0-1-2) has seen his 2 runners finish 6th in 2015 & 4th in 2016.
Irish trained runners (1-2-28) have won just 1 of last 10 winners from 13% of total runners. Last 2 Irish winners ran in Coral.ie H’cap Hurdle on previous start. Willie Mullins (0-0-12) has seen his last 16 runners finish unplaced.

Running Style
7 of 10 winners were prominent throughout
2 of 10 winners were settled in mid division
1 of 10 winners were settled in rear

Price
No strong trend on prices, 4 of last 10 winners were first or second favourite, while the other 6 winners went off at 12/1 or bigger including a 50/1 winner in 2007, 33/1 winner in 2014, a 20/1 winner in 2015 & a 16/1 winner in 2016.
Favourites (3-3-10) have won 3 of the last 10 & show a level stakes profit of 4.75.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 5 or 6 (or finished in first 2 in this race before)
- Finished in first 3 last time in a class 2 or better hurdle (or a novice hurdler)
- Posted career high RPR in last 3 starts
- Allotted 10-8 to 11-2
- First or second season hurdler
- Run 10 times or less over hurdles
- Run in 6 or fewer handicap hurdles (won no more than 1)
- Won or placed in a big handicap hurdle this season (or having first run in a handicap)
- Ran in Jumeirah Hotels & Resorts December and/or William Hill Handicap Hurdle
- Won the Betfred Happy 50th John McKenna Novice Hurdle
- Finished in first 5 in Coral.ie or Steel Plate and Sections H’cap Hurdle last time
- Trained by Paul Nicholls, David Pipe or Gary Moore