The Flogas Novice Chase (formerly the Dr P.J. Moriarty) is a grade 1 event run over 2M 5F and it takes place on the undercard of Irish Gold Cup day at Leopardstown on Saturday 12th February. It’s often a race that can throw up clues for the novice chases at Cheltenham as the first 2 in 2009 (Cooldine and Forpadydeplasterer) went on to win the RSA Chase and Arkle at the Festival, the runner-up in 2010, Weapon’s Amnesty, won the RSA, the 2011 winner, Bostons Angel, also went on to RSA glory, the 2012 runner-up, Call The Police, was placed in the RSA, the 2013 third, Lord Windermere, was another to go on to win the RSA, while the first 2 home in 2015 were both placed in the JLT.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 1-1-2
6yo: 0-2-8
7yo: 6-6-36
8yo: 3-1-16
9yo: 0-0-4
9 of 10 were aged 7 or 8
No horse aged above 8 has ever won this race and both 5yo runners to make the frame were French bred mares from the Willie Mullins yard.

Gender
The only 2 female runners in the past 10 years have been J’y Vole (1st in 2008) and Adrian Des Mottes (3rd in 2015). Both were French bred 5yos, trained by Willie Mullins that had finished in first 3 in Winning Fair Juvenile Hurdle and ran in Triumph Hurdle as a 4yo.
In past 25 years there have been 5 female runners that were sent off 10/1 or shorter, 2 won and the other 3 finished 3rd.

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on their last completed start (7 won)
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 143+ on last completed chase start
8 of 10 winners had run since Christmas Day (2 exceptions trained by Willie Mullins and had won beginners chase at Navan last time)
8 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times since August (2 exceptions won a Navan beginners chase on only run that season)
8 of 10 winners had previously run in 2 to 4 chases (2 exception won only chase start)
8 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 in a graded hurdle
10 of 10 winners had run in no more than 10 times over hurdles
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+
6 of 10 winners had previously won at Leopardstown
4 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase (other 6 had yet to run in a grade 1 chase)

Other races
Porter & Co. Beginners Chase winner (A Toi Phil): 11 (2-0-2)
Nevilles Hotel Novice Chase winner (Our Duke): 611U (2-0-4)
Gain Supporting Laois GAA Beginners Chase winner (Haymount): 5221 (1-2-4)
Shannon Airport Novice Chase winner (Bellshill): 31 (1-1-2)
Mervyn Gray Construction Beginners Chase winner (Our Duke): 31 (1-1-2)
Agnelli Motor Park Novice Hurdle winner (Acapella Bourgeois): 21 (1-1-2)
Crystalski.ie European Breeders Fund Beginners Chase winner (Anibale Fly): 1 (1-0-1)
Previous season's Michael Purcell Novice Hurdle winner (Acapella Bourgeois): 14 (1-0-2)
Florida Pearl Novice Chase winner (A Toi Phil): 361P (1-0-4)
W.B.Gavin & Co. European Breeders Fund Beginners Chase winner (Nambour): P142 (1-0-4)
Killiney Novice Chase winner (Yorkhill): 22 (0-2-2)
Previous season's Deloitte Novice Hurdle winner (Bleu Et Rouge): 2 (0-1-1)
Download Paddy Power's Messenger App Beginners Chase winner (Road To Respect): 32 (0-1-2)
Follow Us On Social Media Beginners Chase winner (Balko Des Flos): U2 (0-1-2)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beginners Chase winner (Bellshill): 22 (0-1-2)
Woodland Park Novice Chase winner (Anibale Fly): 4P (0-0-2)
Ballymaloe Country Relish Beginners Chase winner (Bleu Et Rouge): 3F4 (0-0-3)
4 of 10 winners ran in Agnelli Motor Park Novice Hurdle, finishing 1342
3 of 10 winners ran in Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle, finishing 0P2
3 of 10 winners ran in Nevilles Hotel Novice Chase last time, finishing 112
2 of 10 winners ran in Drinmore Novice Chase, finishing 42
2 of 10 winners ran in GAIN supportting Laois GAA Beginners Chase, finishing 71
2 of 10 winners ran in Porter & Co Beginners Chase, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle, finishing 23
2 of 10 winners ran in Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Novice Hurdle, finishing 11
4 of 10 winners finished in first 4 in a grade 1 novice hurdle at previous Punchestown Festival

Trainers
Willie Mullins (6-2-16) has saddled 6 of the last 10 winners of the race.
Noel Meade (1-2-5) won this in 2002 with Harbour Pilot, and won it again with Apache Stronghold in 2015.
Jessica Harrington (1-1-4) gained 2 wins (2005 & 2011) and 2 places from last 6 runners.

Price
No strong trends on prices, 3 of the last 10 winners were priced between 8/1 and 16/1 while last 5 winners were sent off shorter than 5/1.
Favourites (5-2-12) have won 5 of the last 10 and show a level stakes profit of 0.73.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Irish bred aged 7 or 8 (or French bred 5yo)
- Has run since Christmas (or won last time & trained by Willie Mullins)
- Finished in first 3 last time (ideally won)
- Posted an RPR of 143+ last time out
- Run 2 to 4 times over fences (or won only chase start)
- Won over 2M 4F+
- Previously won at Leopardstown
- Run in no more than 10 hurdles races
- Won or placed in a graded hurdle
- Ran in a grade 1 novice hurdle at 2016 Punchestown Festival
- Finished in first 3 in Agnelli Motor Park Novice Hurdle
- Ran in 2016 Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham
- Won Nevilles Hotel Novices, Porter & Co Beginners Chase and/or Nathaniel Lacy Novice Hurdle
- Trained by Willie Mullins, Noel Meade or Jessica Harrington