The Spring Juvenile Hurdle is the opening race on the Leopardstown card on Sunday, 12th February. Previously run as a grade 2 race, it was elevated to grade 1 status in 2010 and is now one of four grade 1 events on a quality Leopardstown card. It should give some clues towards the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham, as 4 of the last 5 winners of that race (Countrywide Flame, Our Conor, Tiger Roll & Ivanovich Gorbatov) all ran in this before taking the Triumph.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
Race for 4yos

Breeding
Irish bred: 6-10-53
French bred: 2-5-16
GB bred: 2-2-14
6 of 7 French bred hurdlers to make frame (including last 3 winners) came from Willie Mullins yard.
10 of 10 winners were flat-bred and sired by group-winning stallions

Gender
Fillies (2-1-8) have not had many runners in this, but have won it three times since 2002. The 5 female runners to go off shorter than 14/1 since 2002 have gained 3 wins and 1 place.

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 last time out (6 won)
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 122+ last time (6 posted RPR of 128+ last time)
10 of 10 winners had previously run in 1 to 5 hurdles races
7 of 10 winners had won over hurdles (3 exceptions were 2nd in a maiden hurdle last time)
9 of 10 winners had run since Christmas
9 of 10 winners had run on the flat (exception began racing career in listed juvenile hurdle in France)
8 of 10 winners were officially rated 69 or higher on the flat (6 of last 7 that ran on flat were rated 81 or higher)
4 of 10 winners had won a grade 2 or 3 hurdle (3 exceptions placed in a graded hurdle & other 3 had run in just one hurdles race)

Other Races
Festival Hospitality On Sale 3yo Maiden Hurdle winner (Dakota Moirette): 3117 (2-1-4)
Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle winner (Bapaume): 22941 (1-2-5)
Bar One Racing Juvenile 3-Y-O Hurdle winner (Landofhopeandglory): 726126 (1-2-6)
Value Cabs 3-Y-O Hurdle winner (Mega Fortune): 1 (1-0-1)
Paddy Power Only 363 Days Till Christmas 3yo Maiden Hurdle winner (Meri Devie): 3534 (0-1-4)
4 of 10 winners ran in Festival Hospitality On Sale 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle, finishing 1d112
4 of 10 winners ran in Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle, finishing 0713

Trainers
Willie Mullins (2-6-14) has saddled 2 winners and 6 places from his 14 runners in this, including the 2015 winner and the 1-2-3 in 2016. He has saddled 5 beaten favourites in past 10 runnings.
Gordon Elliot (0-2-7) trained the runner-up in 2012 & 2014.

Price
No strong trend on prices.
Favourites (2-3-10) have a poor enough record having gained just 2 wins in the last 10 years (including 4 beaten at odds on), giving a level stakes loss of 4.83.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Flat bred, by a group 1-winning stallion
- Fillies prominent in the market do well
- Has run since Christmas
- Finished in the first 3 last time
- Posted an RPR of 128+ last time
- Run in 1 to 5 hurdles this season
- Won over hurdles or 2nd on only hurdles start
- Run on the flat and officially rated 80 or higher
- Finished in first 2 Festival Hospitality On Sale Juvenile Hurdle and/or ran in Frank Knight Juv Hurdle
- Fred bred hurdler trained by Willie Mullins