SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS 2017
The Cheltenham Festival kicks off on Tuesday 14th March with the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, a grade 1 over 2M 110 yards. This race has been very good to the Irish in recent years with 11 of the last 18 winners being trained in Ireland.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-1-4
5yo: 4-12-81
6yo: 5-6-64
7yo: 1-1-18
8yo+: 0-0-5
No strong trends on ages, 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6, but those age groups represented 84.3% of the total runners. The last 2 winners aged older than 6 were trained in Ireland and owned by J P McManus.
The only two 4yos to make the frame since were Binocular (2nd in 2008) & Hors La Loi III (1st in 2000), both went on to win the Champion Hurdle.
Gender
Mares (0-1-4) have gained 1 place from 4 runners in last 10 years. Like A Butterfly in 2002 was last female winner, and both female hurdlers to make the frame since 2000 had won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle.
Breeding
Irish bred: 6-8-77
French bred: 3-9-35
GB bred: 1-3-48
USA bred: 0-0-6
Other: 0-0-6
French bred horses have won 3 of last 6 and filled 9 of 18 places in past 6 years.
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had run since Christmas
9 of 10 winners won last time out (exceptions finished 2nd)
9 of 10 winners (last 9) posted an RPR of 141+ last time out
10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times over hurdles since August
10 of 10 winners won at least half their hurdle starts that season
10 of 10 winners had not finished worse that 3rd in completed hurdles races that season
4 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a grade 1 hurdle (3 others won grade 2 hurdles)
7 of 10 winners had won a bumper (2 made racecourse debut over hurdles & other was rated 86 on flat)
2 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (6 others were having first course start & other two finished 5th & 2nd in previous Champion Bumper)
Other Races
Deloitte Novices Hurdle winner (Bacardys): 311 (2-1-3)
32Red Casino Novices' Hurdle winner (Elgin): 419881 (2-0-6)
Rossington Main Novice Hurdle winner (Neon Wolf): 31 (1-1-2)
Coolmore EBF Stallions NH Novices' Hurdle winner (Lough Derg Spirit): 31 (1-1-2)
Champion Bumper winner (Ballyandy): 75341 (1-1-5)
I.N.H. Stallion Owners EBF Novice Hurdle winner (Mick Jazz): 169 (1-0-3)
Tolworth Hurdle winner (Finian's Oscar): 014 (1-0-3)
Read Paul Nicholls at Betfair Novices' Hurdle winner (High Bridge): 0P145 (1-0-5)
Sharp Novices' Hurdle winner (Altior): 040901 (1-0-6)
Betfair Hurdle winner (Ballyandy): 2520 (0-2-4)
Royal Bond Novice Hurdle winner (Airlie Beach): 00373 (0-2-5)
Free Bet at 188Bet Novices' Hurdle winner (Finian's Oscar): 2 (0-1-1)
Blackmore Building Maiden Hurdle winner (High Bridge): 402 (0-1-3)
Kennel Gate Novices' Hurdle winner (Capitaine): 92594 (0-1-5)
Scottish Supreme novice hurdle trial winner (Lough Derg Spirit): 05 (0-0-2)
Paddy Power Maiden Hurdle winner (Bacardys): 07 (0-0-2)
horse & Jockey Hotel Maiden Hurdle winner (Bunk Off Early): 00077 (0-0-5)
3 of 10 winners (3 of last 6) ran in previous year's Cheltenham Champion Bumper, finishing 251
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Punchestown Champion Bumper, finishing 16
2 of 4 British-trained winners ran in 32Red Casino Novice Hurdle, finishing 11
2 of 4 Willie Mullins-trained winners ran in Deloitte Novice Hurdle last time, finishing 11
2 of 4 Willie Mullins-trained winners ran in Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle, finishing 11
In the last 6 runnings of the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, horses that had finished in first 5 in previous years Champion Bumper to then run in this have a record of 041136102 (3-2-9)
Trainers
Irish-trained horses (6-6-61) have taken 6 of the last 10 renewals.
Willie Mullins (4-2-22) trained the winner in 2007, 2013, 2014 & 2015 and the runner-up in 2015 & 2016.
Nicky Henderson (1-9-19) has seen 10 of his 19 runners make the frame and has saddled the winner in 2016 & runner-up in in all 4 runnings between 2011 & 2014.
Paul Nicholls (1-1-9) trained the winner in 2006 & 2011, if you only count his runners which were sent off at 10/1 or shorter since 2006, he’s had 2 winners and 1 second from 5 runners.
Philip Hobbs (1-1-7) & Noel Meade (1-0-1) saddled the winners in 2010 & 2009 respectively.
Price
Recent trend has been towards longer prices with 5 of the last 10 winners going off 10/1 or bigger, including a 40/1 winner.
Favourites (2-4-13) have won the last 2 but show a level stakes loss of 4.75 over past 10 years.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Won last time out
- Posted an RPR of 141+ last time
- Run in 2 to 4 hurdles this season and won at least half those starts
- Never finished outside first 3 over hurdles
- Finished in the first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle (or won a grade 2)
- Won a bumper or made racecourse debut over hurdles
- Finished in first 5 in 2016 Champion Bumper
- Won the Deloitte and/or Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle
- Trained in Ireland (especially by Willie Mullins) or by Nicky Henderson.
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