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  1. #1
    DF VIP Member ganjaman2's Avatar
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    Default day1 cheltenham festival trends

    SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS 2017

    The Cheltenham Festival kicks off on Tuesday 14th March with the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, a grade 1 over 2M 110 yards. This race has been very good to the Irish in recent years with 11 of the last 18 winners being trained in Ireland.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    4yo: 0-1-4
    5yo: 4-12-81
    6yo: 5-6-64
    7yo: 1-1-18
    8yo+: 0-0-5
    No strong trends on ages, 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6, but those age groups represented 84.3% of the total runners. The last 2 winners aged older than 6 were trained in Ireland and owned by J P McManus.
    The only two 4yos to make the frame since were Binocular (2nd in 2008) & Hors La Loi III (1st in 2000), both went on to win the Champion Hurdle.

    Gender
    Mares (0-1-4) have gained 1 place from 4 runners in last 10 years. Like A Butterfly in 2002 was last female winner, and both female hurdlers to make the frame since 2000 had won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle.

    Breeding
    Irish bred: 6-8-77
    French bred: 3-9-35
    GB bred: 1-3-48
    USA bred: 0-0-6
    Other: 0-0-6
    French bred horses have won 3 of last 6 and filled 9 of 18 places in past 6 years.

    Recent/Past Form
    9 of 10 winners had run since Christmas
    9 of 10 winners won last time out (exceptions finished 2nd)
    9 of 10 winners (last 9) posted an RPR of 141+ last time out
    10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times over hurdles since August
    10 of 10 winners won at least half their hurdle starts that season
    10 of 10 winners had not finished worse that 3rd in completed hurdles races that season
    4 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a grade 1 hurdle (3 others won grade 2 hurdles)
    7 of 10 winners had won a bumper (2 made racecourse debut over hurdles & other was rated 86 on flat)
    2 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (6 others were having first course start & other two finished 5th & 2nd in previous Champion Bumper)

    Other Races
    Deloitte Novices Hurdle winner (Bacardys): 311 (2-1-3)
    32Red Casino Novices' Hurdle winner (Elgin): 419881 (2-0-6)
    Rossington Main Novice Hurdle winner (Neon Wolf): 31 (1-1-2)
    Coolmore EBF Stallions NH Novices' Hurdle winner (Lough Derg Spirit): 31 (1-1-2)
    Champion Bumper winner (Ballyandy): 75341 (1-1-5)
    I.N.H. Stallion Owners EBF Novice Hurdle winner (Mick Jazz): 169 (1-0-3)
    Tolworth Hurdle winner (Finian's Oscar): 014 (1-0-3)
    Read Paul Nicholls at Betfair Novices' Hurdle winner (High Bridge): 0P145 (1-0-5)
    Sharp Novices' Hurdle winner (Altior): 040901 (1-0-6)
    Betfair Hurdle winner (Ballyandy): 2520 (0-2-4)
    Royal Bond Novice Hurdle winner (Airlie Beach): 00373 (0-2-5)
    Free Bet at 188Bet Novices' Hurdle winner (Finian's Oscar): 2 (0-1-1)
    Blackmore Building Maiden Hurdle winner (High Bridge): 402 (0-1-3)
    Kennel Gate Novices' Hurdle winner (Capitaine): 92594 (0-1-5)
    Scottish Supreme novice hurdle trial winner (Lough Derg Spirit): 05 (0-0-2)
    Paddy Power Maiden Hurdle winner (Bacardys): 07 (0-0-2)
    horse & Jockey Hotel Maiden Hurdle winner (Bunk Off Early): 00077 (0-0-5)
    3 of 10 winners (3 of last 6) ran in previous year's Cheltenham Champion Bumper, finishing 251
    2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Punchestown Champion Bumper, finishing 16
    2 of 4 British-trained winners ran in 32Red Casino Novice Hurdle, finishing 11
    2 of 4 Willie Mullins-trained winners ran in Deloitte Novice Hurdle last time, finishing 11
    2 of 4 Willie Mullins-trained winners ran in Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle, finishing 11
    In the last 6 runnings of the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, horses that had finished in first 5 in previous years Champion Bumper to then run in this have a record of 041136102 (3-2-9)

    Trainers
    Irish-trained horses (6-6-61) have taken 6 of the last 10 renewals.
    Willie Mullins (4-2-22) trained the winner in 2007, 2013, 2014 & 2015 and the runner-up in 2015 & 2016.
    Nicky Henderson (1-9-19) has seen 10 of his 19 runners make the frame and has saddled the winner in 2016 & runner-up in in all 4 runnings between 2011 & 2014.
    Paul Nicholls (1-1-9) trained the winner in 2006 & 2011, if you only count his runners which were sent off at 10/1 or shorter since 2006, he’s had 2 winners and 1 second from 5 runners.
    Philip Hobbs (1-1-7) & Noel Meade (1-0-1) saddled the winners in 2010 & 2009 respectively.

    Price
    Recent trend has been towards longer prices with 5 of the last 10 winners going off 10/1 or bigger, including a 40/1 winner.
    Favourites (2-4-13) have won the last 2 but show a level stakes loss of 4.75 over past 10 years.

    Summary:
    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    - Won last time out
    - Posted an RPR of 141+ last time
    - Run in 2 to 4 hurdles this season and won at least half those starts
    - Never finished outside first 3 over hurdles
    - Finished in the first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle (or won a grade 2)
    - Won a bumper or made racecourse debut over hurdles
    - Finished in first 5 in 2016 Champion Bumper
    - Won the Deloitte and/or Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle
    - Trained in Ireland (especially by Willie Mullins) or by Nicky Henderson.

  2. #2
    DF VIP Member ganjaman2's Avatar
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    Default Re: day1 cheltenham festival trends

    ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY CHASE TRENDS 2017
    The second race on day 1 is the Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase, run over 2M for novice chasers. It has been won by some top class chasers since 2000 including 4 subsequent Champion Chase winners – Moscow Flyer, Azertyioup, Voy Por Ustedes & Sprinter Sacre and last year’s winner, Douvan could turn out to be another subsequent champion chaser. Willie Mullins has been a head off winning the last 3 renewals while the record of Paul Nicholls has been surprisingly poor in the Arkle in recent years.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    5yo: 0-3-10
    6yo: 3-3-30
    7yo: 6-8-46
    8yo: 1-3-15
    9yo+: 0-0-5
    5 year olds had a very strong record before 2008 as up to then they received a healthy weight allowance (5lbs in 2007) but since that has been scrapped there have been very few 5yos running in this (0-1-5 since racing on level weights).
    5 of last 6 winners aged 5 or 6 were French or German bred.
    In past 20 years only 2 horses aged over 7 have won this, both were Irish bred 8yos who had won a grade 1 two mile hurdle.

    Gender
    Mares (0-1-3) have gained 1 place from their 3 runners however the 2 unplaced finishers were both priced 20/1 or bigger whereas the one female to make the frame was Kruguyrova, who was sent off 9/1 fourth favourite.

    Breeding
    Irish Bred: 5-8-53
    French Bred: 4-4-29
    British Bred: 1-4-17
    German Bred: 0-1-4
    Other: 0-0-3
    Not a whole lot in it on the breeding side.
    Last 5 winners bred in France were aged 5 to 7
    5 of the 6 winners bred in Ireland or Britain were aged 7 or 8
    Progeny of King’s Theatre: 51322 (1-2-5)

    Recent/Past Form
    7 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 157+ last time
    9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 153+ in 1 or both of last 2 starts (1 exception won on only previous chase last time, RPR of 143)
    10 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 on all completed chase runs
    8 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 5 chases (2 exceptions were unbeaten in 1 or 2 previous chase runs)
    7 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase (2 exceptions had yet to run in a graded chase and other had finished runner-up 3 times in grade 1 chases)
    10 of 10 winners had run in 4 to 13 hurdles races
    7 of 10 winners contested a novice hurdle the previous season (3 exceptions had won grade 1 or 2 hurdles)
    9 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
    9 of 10 winners were officially rated 140+ over hurdles
    6 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (3 exceptions had run here once, finishing 3rd Supreme, 4th in Neptune & 2nd in a handicap hurdle and other was having first course start)

    Other Races
    Irish Arkle winner (Some Plan): 403311 (2-2-6)
    Wayward Lad Novice Chase winner (Altior): 35P51144 (2-1-8)
    Previous Mersey Novices' Hurdle winner (Yorkhill): 11 (2-0-2)
    Craddockstown winner (Identity Thief): 132 (1-2-3)
    Download The Betdaq App Beginners Chase winner (Identity Thief): 12 (1-1-2)
    Previous season's Supreme Novice Hurdle winner (Altior): 421 (1-1-3)
    Buck House Novice Chase winner (Three Stars): 0124 (1-1-4)
    Irish Stallions EBF Beginners Chase winner (Yorkhill): 1 (1-0-1)
    Pendil Novice Chase winner: 1 (1-0-1)
    Altcar Novice Chase winner (Waiting Patiently): 1 (1-0-1)
    Noel Novice Chase winner (Politilogue): 1 (1-0-1)
    Previous Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle winner (Yorkhill): 1 (1-0-1)
    Kingmaker Novice Chase winner (Flying Angel): 2626 (0-2-4)
    Henry VIII Novice Chase winner (Altior): 29244 (0-2-5)
    Winter Gala Novices' Chase winner (Top Notch): 248 (0-1-3)
    Lightning Novice Chase winner (Forest Bihan): 35059U (0-1-6)
    Racing Post Arkle Trial Novice Chase winner (Le Prezien): 26F544P (0-1-7)
    3 of 4 Irish-trained winners ran in Irish Arkle, finishing 211
    2 of 4 Irish-trained winners finished ran in Racing Post Novice Chase, finishin 11
    2 of 6 British-trained winners ran in Mersey Novice Hurdle, finishing 11
    2 of 2 Nicky Henderson-trained winners ran in Wayward Lad Novice chase, finishing 11
    Last 7 Irish-trained winners had finished in first 2 in Irish Arkle and/or Racing Post Novice Chase
    6 of 10 winners finished in first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle at previous Cheltenham Festival (3 Neptune, 2 Supreme & 1 World Hurdle)

    Trainers
    Nicky Henderson (2-3-10) trained Sprinter Sacre & Simonsig to win this in 2012 & 2013 and also saddled placed finishers in 2011 & 2015.
    Willie Mullins (2-1-9) won last 2 renewals (his first wins in the race)
    Henry De Bromhead (1-1-3) won this with Sizing Europe 2010 and saddled Sizing John to be 2nd in 2016.
    Alan King (1-0-3) has trained backed to back winners in 2006 & 2007.
    David Pipe (1-0-5) trained Western Warhorse at 33/1 to win in 2014.
    Paul Nicholls (0-1-11) last trained the winner in 2003 but his 11 runners in past 10 years have produced no winners and just 1 place.
    Irish trained runners (4-6-31) have a decent record in the race, producing 4 winners from approximately 29.2% of the total runners, though they been responsible for 4 of the past 8 winners, as well as runner-up in 2013 & 2016 and the 2nd & 3rd in 2014.

    Price
    9 of 10 winners have come from the first 5 in the betting
    9 winners went off at single figure odds but Western Warhorse’s 33/1 success was the big shock in last 10 years.
    Favourites (4-4-11) have won 4 of the last 5, though over past 10 years show a level stakes loss of 3.82.

    Summary:
    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    - French bred aged 6 or 7, or Irish bred aged 7
    - Run in 2 to 4 chases this season
    - Never finished out of the first 2 over fences
    - Posted an RPR of 153+ on last 2 starts
    - Had won a grade 1 or 2 chase
    - Finished in first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
    - Run in 4 to 13 hurdles & officially rated 140+ over hurdles
    - Course winner or placed in a hurdle at the Festival (or having first start here)
    - Finished in first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle at 2016 Cheltenham Festival (ideally in a novice h’dl)
    - Finished in first 2 in November, Wayward Lad and/or Henry VIII Novice Chase
    - Trained by Alan King, Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins or Henry De Bromhead
    - Respect Irish runners that finished in first 2 in Irish Arkle and/or Racing Post Novice Chase
    - From the first 5 in the betting (no bigger than 9/1)

  3. #3
    DF VIP Member ganjaman2's Avatar
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    Default Re: day1 cheltenham festival trends

    CHAMPION HURDLE TRENDS 2017

    The highlight of the first day of Cheltenham’s four day Festival, which kicks off on the 14th March, is the Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy, the big one for 2 mile hurdlers. Since 1998, thirteen winners have come from Ireland, with Annie Power, Faugheen, Jezki & Hurricane Fly taking the last 4 renewals.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    5yo: 1-6-29
    6yo: 3-6-33
    7yo: 4-1-23
    8yo: 1-4-16
    9yo: 1-2-7
    10yo: 0-0-4
    11yo+: 0-1-7
    9 of 10 winners have been aged 6 to 9, they represented just 66.4% of total runners.
    The only 5yo winner in the past 25 years was Katchit in 2008, and Sizing Europe did look the likely winner of the race before losing his action between the final 2 flights.
    The only horse aged 10+ since 2005 to have finished placed was Hurricane Fly. The only winner aged 10+ in the last 50 years was Sea Pigeon in 1980/81.

    Horses that ran well in this aged 5
    Record of horses that had finished in first 4 as 5yos in following renewal:
    In 1997 Theatreworld was 2nd as a 5yo and was 2nd in 1998
    In 1997 I’m Supposin was 4th as a 5yo and was 3rd in 1998
    In 2000 Hors La Loi was 2nd as a 5yo and won next running as a 7yo in 2002
    In 2007 Afsoun was 3rd at as a 5yo and was 7th in 2008
    In 2008 Katchit won it as a 5yo and finished 6th in 2009
    In 2008 Punjabi finished 3rd as a 5yo and won it in 2009
    In 2009 Celestial Halo finished 2nd as a 5yo and finished 4th in 2010
    In 2009 Binocular finished 3rd as a 5yo and won it in 2010
    Since 1997 there have been eight runners in the Champion Hurdle that had finished in the first 5 as 5yos in the previous renewal, they finished 32176141 (3-2-8).

    Gender
    Mares (1-0-3) had a poor record prior to Annie Power’s win in 2016. The 3 previous to run in had all been unplaced. Since 2000, prior to Annie Power, only Bilbao has made the frame when she finished 3rd in 2002. That year the first 2 in the betting went wrong during the race (Istabraq pulled up and Valiramix slipped up). It’s safe to say she would not have made the places had Valiramix completed.

    Recent/Past Form
    7 of 10 winners won last time out (exceptions finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th in a grade 1 or 2)
    8 of 10 winners (last 7) posted an RPR of 156+ last time
    10 of 10 winners had run since Christmas
    8 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times that season (2 exception won only start)
    7 of 10 winners had run at least 10 times over hurdles (3 expcetions were 2nd season hurdlers that finished in first 4 in previous year's Supreme or Neptune)
    8 of 10 winners were second or third season hurdlers (1 exception was 3rd in previous year's Champion Hurdle & other would have won Mares Hurdle the previous year but for final hurdle fall)
    8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 hurdle (Sublimity had finished 4th in the previous season's Supreme Novices & Rock On Ruby had finished narrow 2nd in two grade 1's)

    Last year’s race
    Annie Power won last year’s Champion Hurdle by over 4 lengths from My Tent Or Your & Nichols Canyon, before taking the Aintree Hurdle by 18 lengths but hasn’t been seen since then. Form of those in behind her hasn’t worked out all that well. My Tent Or Yours has failed to win any of his 5 runs since, while Nichols Canyon has managed just 1 win from 5 runs since. The 4th, The New One, has gained 2 wins and a 2nd in grade 2 on 3 runs this season, while 5th & 6th, Top Notch & Identity Thief have won graded chases this season. The other 4 finishers in the race have gained 1 win from 11 collective hurdles starts since.
    The combined subsequent hurdles record of 9 horses from last year to have had hurdles runs since is 5-9-31.
    The form next time out of the 9 horses, to come out of the race and run over hurdles since reads 123F23535 (1-2-9).

    Cheltenham Festival Form
    Triumph Hurdle winner (Ivanovich Gorbatov): 612353FP (1-3-8)
    Neptune Investments Novices' winner (Yorkhill): 231 (1-2-3)
    County Hurdle winner (Superb Story): 4 (0-0-1)
    Highest placed finisher from previous Supreme Novices to run in this: P03058P28 (0-2-9)
    Highest placed finisher from previous Neptune Investments Novices' to run in this: 62131 (2-2-5)
    3 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Champion Hurdle, finishing 333
    2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Supreme Novices' Hurdle, finishing 43
    2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Neptune Novices' Hurdle, finishing 21
    5 of 5 second season hurdlers finished in first 4 in a grade 1 novice hurdle at previous festival
    3 of 10 winners had won a race at the Cheltenham Festival (6 others had finished in first 4 in Champion, Supreme, Mares or Neptune)
    9 of 10 winners finished in first 4 over hurdles at previous Cheltenham Festival (2 exception was Hurricane Fly in 2011 who might have won at previous 2 Festivals but for injury)

    Other races
    Punchestown Champion Hurdle winner (Vroum Vroum Mag): 1613144 (3-1-7)
    Ryanair Hurdle (Petit Mouchoir): 20611433 (2-3-8)
    Irish Champion Hurdle winner (Petit Mouchoir): 400613143 (2-2-9)
    Hatton's Grace Hurdle winner (Apple's Jade): 211 (2-1-3)
    Ascot Hurdle winner (Yanworth): 4321 (1-2-4)
    Morgiana Hurdle winner (Nichols Canyon): F961433 (1-2-7)
    Contenders Hurdle winner (Buveur D'Air): 6721 (1-1-4)
    Anniversary Hurdle winner (Apple's Jade): 6135 (1-1-4)
    Christmas Hurdle winner (Yanworth): 500421 (1-1-6)
    International Hurdle winner (The New One): 62325435 (0-4-8)
    Betfair Price Rush Hurdle winner (Ch'Tibello): 3U5 (0-1-3)
    Top Novice hurdle winner (Buveur D'Air): P02 (0-1-3)
    Champion Hurdle Trial winner (The New One): 379754 (0-1-6)
    Galway Hurdle winner (Clondaw Warrior): 87 (0-0-2)
    Elite Hurdle winner (Sceau Royal): 497 (0-0-3)
    Masterson Holdings Hurdle winner (Sceau Royal): 560 (0-0-3)
    4 of 10 winners ran in the Christmas hurdle, finishing F321
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle, finishing 111
    3 of 6 Irish-trained winners ran in Ryanair Hurdle, finishing 112
    3 of 6 Irish-trained winners ran in the Irish Champion Hurdle, finishing 114
    3 of 6 Irish-trained winners ran in Hattons Grace Hurdle, finishing 311
    3 of 4 British-trained winners ran in the Fighting Fifth, finishing 315
    2 of 4 British-trained winners ran in the Kingwell Hurdle last time out, finishing 13

    Trainers
    Irish trained runners (6-5-47) have won 6 of the last 10 runnings.
    Willie Mullins (4-4-14) saddled Hurricane Fly to finish 1st-3rd-1st-4th-3rd between 2011 & 2015 and also saddled the 1-2-3 in 2015, and the 1st & 3rd in 2016.
    Nicky Henderson (2-7-21) has saddled 2 winners and 7 places from 21 runners in past 10 renewals.
    Jessica Harrington (1-0-3) saddled Jezki to win it in 2014.
    Alan King (1-0-6) won this with Katchit in 2008.
    Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-2-5) has seen 2 of his 5 runners get placed.

    Price
    6 of 10 winners have been sent off between 9/1 and 22/1
    Longer prices have held sway in this in past 10 years with only Willie Mullins bucking the trend with Hurricane Fly’s two wins at 11/4 & 13/8, Faugheen at 4/5 and Annie Power at 5/2, being the only 4 recent winners priced shorter than 9/1.
    Favourites (4-2-10) have won 4 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 1.68.

    Summary:
    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    - Gelding aged 6 to 9
    - Won last time out (or placed in grade 1 or 2)
    - Posted an RPR of 160+ last time out
    - Run 2 to 4 times this season
    - 2nd or 3rd season hurdler or finished in first 3 in 2016 Champion Hurdle
    - Previously won a grade 1 hurdle
    - Finished in first 3 in 2016 Champion Hurdle or won another race at 2016 Festival
    - Won the Punchestown Champion Hurdle
    - Irish-trained that finished in first 3 in Irish Champion and/or Ryanair Hurdle
    - British-trained that finished in first 3 in Fighting Fifth and/or Christmas Hurdle
    - Ran in Kingwell, Contenders, Red Mills Trial or Irish Champion Hurdle last time
    - Trained by Willie Mullins or Nicky Henderson

  4. #4
    DF VIP Member ganjaman2's Avatar
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    Default Re: day1 cheltenham festival trends

    MARES HURDLE TRENDS 2017

    The OLBG Mares Hurdle is one of the newer races, introduced in 2008, and is run over an intermediate distance of 2M 4F. The one horse that has dominated this race is Quevega, who has won 6 of the 9 runnings. For obvious reasons, her dominance means that looking at some trends based on the winners will be meaningless but if you omit her from some statistics, we may be able to find the mare most likely to take over her mantle.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 9 runnings:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    Quevega won the 6 runnings between 2009 & 2014 (aged 5 to 10), it may be more enlightening to look at age stats when removing her from the race.
    Age stats w/o Quevega (i.e. the 2nd to Quevega is counted as winner)
    4yo: 0-0-3
    5yo: 1-1-23
    6yo: 4-4-44
    7yo: 3-5-38
    8yo: 1-6-27
    9yo+: 0-2-9
    10yo+: 0-0-2
    The only horse to ever win it aged older than 8 was Quevega, as a 9 & 10 year old. 6yos have done best of the runners, when excluding Quevega, winning 4 of 8.

    Breeding
    The French-bred Quevega has won 6 of the 9 runnings, but when excluding her from the 9 renewals, breeding stats read:
    Irish Bred: 3-12-61
    British Bred: 3-5-53
    French Bred: 2-1-22
    German bred: 1-0-1
    USA bred: 0-0-1

    Recent/Past Form of 11 horses that finished 1st or 2nd that weren’t Quevega
    10 of 11 finished in the first 3 on all of their last 3 completed starts (exception 5th in grade 1 Christmas Hurdle)
    11 of 11 finished in first 2 on last completed start (8 won)
    10 of 11 won 1 of last 2 starts
    9 of 11 posted an RPR of 140+ last time
    10 of 11 had run in past 55 days
    8 of 11 had previously run in 4 to 11 hurdles races
    11 of 11 had run in 2 to 5 hurdles races since August
    10 of 11 had won over 2M 4F to 2M 5F
    9 of 11 had won a class 1 NH flat race or hurdle (2 exceptions were 2nd in a grade 2)
    10 of 11 had contested a grade 1 or 2 under NH rules (exception had won two listed hurdles)

    Other Races
    Previous season's winner (Vroum Vroum Mag): 11111 (5-0-5)
    Warwick OLBG.com Mares Hurdle winner (Rons Dream): 210 (1-1-3) War 8 Feb
    Irish Stallions EBF Mares Champion Hurdle winner (Whiteout): 035U2F (0-2-6)
    Grabel Mares Hurdle winner (Let's Dance): 030 (0-1-3)
    Doncaster OLBG.com Mares Hurdle winner (Vroum Vroum Mag): 3P04 (0-1-4)
    Willis Towers EBF Mares Hurdle winner (Let's Dance): 0306 (0-1-4)
    32Red.com Mares' Hurdle winner (Lifeboat Mona): 37890 (0-1-5)
    Trisoft Mares Handicap Hurdle winner (Lifeboat Mona): 57 (0-0-2)
    Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Novice Hurdle Final winner (Jer's Girl): 040 (0-0-3)
    Kempton OLBG Mares Hurdle winner (Surtee Du Berlais): 850 (0-0-3) Kem 25 Nov
    Record of first 4 from World Series Hurdle: 211111 (5-1-6)
    5 of 9 winners ran in previous World Series Hurdle, finishing 11114
    2 of 9 winners ran in Prix La Barka, finishing 97

    Other Races (11 horses that finished 1st or 2nd that weren’t Quevega)
    5 of 11 ran in Warfield Hurdle, finishing 2112
    2 of 11 ran in Mares listed bumper at previous year's Aintree Festival, finishing 01
    2 of 11 ran in World Series Hurdle, finishing 14
    2 of 11 ran in the Inkerman EBF Mares Novice Hurdle, finishing 11
    2 of 11 ran in Warwick Mares Listed Hurdle, finishing 11

    Trainers
    Willie Mullins (8-1-12) has won last 8 runnings, 6 with Quevega and with Glens Melody & Vroum Vroum Mag in last 2 years.
    Harry Fry (0-1-4) & Jessica Harrington (0-1-6) have each trained 1 placed finisher in the last 2 runnings.
    Alan King (0-1-5) trained the 3rd in 2014, his four other runners finished 4th, 5th, 4th & fell.
    Irish trained runners (8-6-36) have won last 8 (6 of those were Quevega). If you remove Willie Mullins runners from the Irish contingent, their record becomes 0-5-24.

    Price
    6 of 9 winners were Quevega, who was sent off favourite on each occasion. Vroum Vroum Mag was an odds on winner in 2016, Whiteoak won it in 2008 at 20/1 and 2nd favourite Glens Melody winning it in 2015 as a result of Annie Power’s final hurdle fall.
    Removing Quevega’s 6 wins, 14 of the other 21 places have been filled by double-figure priced runners and at least one horse price 16/1 or bigger has made the frame in every renewal (2nd & 3rd in 2016 were 66/1 & 40/1, 3rd in 2015 was 16/1, 2nd & 3rd in 2014 were 14/1 & 25/1, 2nd & 3rd in 2013 were priced 33/1 & 40/1, while in 2012 the 2nd & 3rd went off at 14/1 & 66/1).
    Favourite (7-1-10) has won 7 of 9 (6 of 7 were Quevega), giving a level stakes profit of 5.03.

    Summary:
    Based on trends from past 8 runnings of horses that ran well (not Quevega) look for a horse:
    - Aged 6 or 7
    - Finished in the first 3 on all of their last 3 starts
    - Finished in first 2 last time (in past 55 days)
    - Won 1 of last 2 starts
    - Posted an RPR of 140+ last time
    - Had run in 2 to 5 hurdles races since August
    - Has won over 2M 4F to 2M 5F
    - Had won a class 1 race under NH rules (or placed in a graded hurdle)
    - Made racecourse debut in a NH race
    - Finished in first 2 in Warfield, Warwick OLBG.com Mares and/or 2015 World Series Hurdle
    - Trained by Willie Mullins

  5. #5
    DF VIP Member ganjaman2's Avatar
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    Default Re: day1 cheltenham festival trends

    NATIONAL HUNT NOVICE CHASE TRENDS 2017

    The JT McNamara National Hunt Challenge Cup Steeplechase is a novice event, run over 4 miles, and is restricted to amateur jockeys. Conditions of the race changed in 2010 as there was formerly a penalty structure for previous chase wins, which has now been scrapped, meaning the race now attracts higher class novices.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    6yo: 2-2-26
    7yo: 4-9-71
    8yo: 3-6-51
    9yo: 1-2-22
    10yo: 0-1-7
    11yo+: 0-0-2
    No strong trends on ages of winners.

    Gender
    Mares (0-1-9) have gained 1 place from 9 runners.

    Breeding
    Irish Bred: 5-14-120
    GB Bred: 2-4-33
    French Bred: 2-2-23
    USA bred: 1-0-2
    German Bred: 0-0-1
    No major trends to be found on the winners’ breeding.
    Record of progeny of Oscar: 16P17 (2-0-5)

    Recent/Past Form
    7 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on last chase start (3 exceptions unplaced in a graded chase last time)
    7 of 10 winners (7 of last 8) posted an RPR of 140+ last time
    9 of 10 winners had run 4 to 8 times since July (exception was a second season chaser)
    9 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 in a 3M+ chase
    8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (one exception had finished 2nd in previous season's Kim Muir)
    10 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 11 chases
    9 of 10 winners made their debut in a bumper, hurdle or point to point
    5 of 7 British-trained winners had won or placed in Newbury chase over 2M 4F+

    Other Races
    Record of horses that finished in first 5 in Topaz Novice Chase: 021F219 (2-2-7)
    CSP Novice Limited H'cap Chase winner (Beware The Bear): 17U7 (1-0-4)
    Sportinglife Beginners Chase winner (Edwulf): 3 (0-1-1)
    Towton Novices' Chase winner (Baywing): 6 (0-0-1)
    Paddy Power Track My Bet EBF Novice Chase winner (Alpha Des Obeaux): 4 (0-0-1)
    Betfred Mobile Hampton Listed Novices' Chase winner (American): F5 (0-0-2)
    3 of last 4 Irish-trained winners ran in Topaz Novice Chase, finishing F51
    2 of 7 British-trained winners ran in CSP Novice Handicap Chase, finishing 12
    2 of 10 winners ran in Jockey Club Ownership Syndicate Novice Chase, finishing 2P
    2 of 10 winners ran in Mallardjewellers.com Novice Chase, finishing F2
    2 of 2 second season chaser winners ran in Irish Grand National, both finishing 12th
    2 of 2 second season chaser winners ran in previous Kim Muir, finishing 72

    Trainers
    Alan King (2-1-9) trained the winner in 2008 & 2014 and saddled the 3rd in 2013.
    Gordon Elliot (2-0-4) trained the winner in 2011 & 2015.
    Willie Mullins (1-2-10) trained the winner in 2013, 3rd in 2014, 4th in 2015 & 3rd in 2016.
    Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-7) won this in 2009.
    David Pipe (0-2-7) trained the runner-up in 2008 & 2015.
    Tony Martin (0-1-2) has saddled the runner-up in 2009 & 5th in 2014.
    The Sandra Hughes yard (0-1-3) has saddled 2 seconds from 4 runners since 2000.
    Mouse Morris (0-1-3), Nicky Henderson (0-1-3) & Venetia Williams (0-1-7) have each saddled 1 placed finisher in past 10 years.
    Paul Nicholls (0-1-7) has a poor record in this, gaining just 1 place from 13 runners since 2000 (which included 3 favourites).
    Irish trained runners (3-10-47) have done well in this race recently, having won 3 of the last 6. In past 8 years they have accounted for the 2nd in 2009, the 2nd & 3rd in 2010, the winner in 2011, the 3rd & 4th in 2012, 1st & 2nd in 2013, 3rd in 2014, 1st & 3rd in 2015 and 3rd in 2016.

    Jockeys
    Derek O'Connor (2-4-9) rode the winner in 2011 & 2016 and has also been on the runner-up on 3 occasions in past 10 years, as well as the 3rd in 2015.
    Katie Walsh (1-2-5), Patrick Mullins (1-1-6) & Sam Waley-Cohen (1-1-6) have each ridden a winner and a placed finisher in past 7 runnings.
    Joshua Newman (1-0-3) & Jamie Codd (1-0-9) have both ridden a winner in past 3 years.

    Racing Tactics
    7 of 10 winners were held up towards the rear
    3 of 10 winners raced prominently

    Price
    Between 2003 & 2007, 4 of 5 winners were sent off 25/1 or bigger but since 2008 all 9 winners were priced between 5/1 & 14/1, with favourites taking 3 of last 6.
    Favourites (3-0-10) have won 3 of 10, giving a level stakes profit of 5.25.

    Summary:
    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    - Finished in first 2 last time in past 50 days
    - Posted an RPR of 140+ last time
    - Run 4 to 8 times this season (or a second season chaser)
    - Previously run in 3 to 11 chases
    - Has won a race over 3M+
    - Finished in the first 2 in a chase over 3M+
    - Made debut in a point to point, bumper or hurdle
    - Trained in GB and won or placed in a Newbury Chase over 2M 4F or further
    - Trained in Ireland & ran in Topaz Novice Chase
    - Trained by Alan King, Gordon Elliot or Willie Mullins
    - Ridden by Derek O'Connor or Katie Walsh
    - Priced between 5/1 & 14/1

  6. #6
    DF VIP Member ganjaman2's Avatar
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    Default Re: day1 cheltenham festival trends

    CLOSE BROTHERS NOVICES´ HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS 2017

    The Close Brothers Novices´ Handicap Chase was first run in 2005 and it is run over an intermediate distance of 2M 4½F. Prior to 2011 it was run on the new course with no upper limit on ratings but now it’s run on the old course for horses rated 0-140, so some trends will have less relevance.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    5yo: 1-2-17
    6yo: 3-9-42
    7yo: 4-8-75
    8yo: 1-7-43
    9yo: 1-4-18
    10yo+: 0-0-3
    Horses aged 5 to 7: 8-19-134
    Horses aged 8+: 2-11-64
    All three 5yos to make the frame were French bred.

    Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
    Horses carrying 11-4 or more: 6-19-118
    Horses carrying 10-10 to 11-3: 4-8-61
    Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 0-3-19
    The last 10 winners carried 10-11 or more though with the race now limited to horses rated 140 or less, it’s almost assured that all runners will have at least 10-11. Since the new conditions for the race were introduced in 2011, all 24 places were filled by horses carrying 11-4 or more, though only 10 of 119 runners carried less than 11-4.
    Top weights: 7708P1P1P00PP7641 (3-1-18) have won 3 of the last 5 runnings.
    Horses carrying a penalty: 0502P6PP (0-1-8)

    Official Ratings (ratings now capped to 0-140)
    Horses rated 138 or higher: 5-14-90
    Horses rated 130 to 137: 5-16-103
    Horses rated 129 or lower: 0-0-5
    Horses officially rated 132 or higher won the last 10 renewals and filled 37 of 40 places, though conditions of this race changed in 2011 as now only horses rated 140 or less are eligible to run in this, so previous official rating figures have less relevance.
    Horses rated 137+ have won past 5 renewals & filled 15 of 20 places.

    Recent/Past Form
    9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last completed start (exception won penultimate start)
    10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 135+ in 1 or both of last 2 completed chases starts
    7 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on all completed starts over fences that season (1 exception finished in first 3 in 3 of 4 chase starts & another finished in first 3 in 2 of 3 completed starts)
    6 of 10 winners were having their first run in a handicap chase (other 4 had run in 2+ handicap chases)
    10 of 10 winners had run 3 to 7 times over fences that season
    6 of 10 winners had won 1 or 2 previous chases (3 exceptions were maidens over fences)
    10 of 10 winners had their last run in past 60 days
    8 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+ (1 exception placed in a 2M 5F handicap chase here and other exception had not run over further than 2M 2F)
    4 of 10 winners ran in a hurdles race at a previous Festival
    9 of 10 winners were officially rated 124+ over hurdles
    8 of 10 winners had run no more than 8 times over hurdles

    Other Races
    32Red.com Novices' Handicap Chase winner (Poker School): P10 (1-0-3)
    Betfred Double Delight Novices' Handicap Chase winner (Captain Redbeard): P (0-0-1)
    Lewis Badges 1832 Novices' Chase winner (Pinkie Brown): PF (0-0-2)
    2 of 10 winners (2 of last 4) ran in Timeform Novice Handicap Chase, finishing 73
    2 of 10 winners ran in Jack Fletcher Beginners' Chase, finishing F3
    2 of 10 winners had run in Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase, finishing 56
    3 of 10 winners (3 of last 5) had won a 2M 4.5F Handicap chase at Kempton that season

    Trainers
    Nicky Henderson (1-4-18) trained Rajdhani Express to win this race in 2013 and has also seen 4 of his other 17 runners make the frame.
    Philip Hobbs (1-1-11) trained the winner in 2010 and saddled placed finisher in 2015.
    Paul Nicholls (1-1-14) trained the winner in 2009 and runner-up in 2016.
    Rebecca Curtis (1-0-3) trained Irish Cavalier to win this in 2015.
    Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-2-7), Tom George (0-2-70 & Jonjo O’Neill (0-2-9) have each saddled a couple of placed finishers.
    Alan Fleming (0-1-1), Willie Mullins (0-1-2), Gary Moore (0-1-3), Colin Tizzard (0-1-5) & Venetia Williams (0-1-10) have all accounted for 1 place in the past 6 years.
    Irish trained runners (1-5-31) have an average record, winning one and 11 of their 29 runners making the first 6.

    Price
    8 of last 9 were priced between 6/1 & 12/1
    Favourites (1-1-11) have won just 1 of the last 10 runnings giving a level stakes loss of 2.50.

    Summary:
    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    - Aged 6 or 7 (or French bred 5yo)
    - Top weights have done well recently
    - Officially rated 137 to 140
    - Finished in first 3 on last completed chase start (posting an RPR of 136+)
    - Run in 3 to 7 chases this season
    - Finished in first 3 on all completed chase starts this season
    - Won over 2M 4F or further
    - Run no more than 8 times over hurdles (won or placed in a class 1 hurdle)
    - Officially rated 125 or higher over hurdles
    - Won a 2M 4F to 2M 5F chase at Kempton or Folkestone this season
    - Finished in first 7 in Timeform Novice Handicap and/or Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase
    - Priced between 6/1 & 12/1

  7. #7
    DF VIP Member ganjaman2's Avatar
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    Default Re: day1 cheltenham festival trends

    ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS 2017

    The Ultima Business Solutions Festival Trophy Handicap Chase (formerly the William Hill Trophy) is a grade 3 handicap chase run over 3 miles and half a furlong. It’s the third race run on the opening day of the Festival and there are plenty of important trends that should be taken note of before having a bet in this race.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    6yo: 0-3-14
    7yo: 3-11-43
    8yo: 4-1-50
    9yo: 1-10-50
    10yo: 2-2-30
    11yo+: 0-2-27
    10 of 10 winners were aged 7 to 10 and they have also filled 34 of 39 places
    Horses aged 6 to 8: 7-15-107
    Horses aged 9 or older: 3-14-107
    Horses aged 11+ should be avoided seeing as they have filled 2 places from 27 runners in the past 10 renewals.

    Breeding
    Irish bred: 9-11-126
    British bred: 1-9-38
    French bred: 0-8-41
    Other: 0-1-9
    Irish bred horses have won 9 of last 10 from approximately 58.9% of total runners.

    Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
    Horses carrying 11-5 or more: 2-6-47
    Horses carrying 10-9 to 11-4: 5-17-99
    Horses carrying 10-8 or lower: 3-6-68
    Only 4 horses have managed to carry 11-0+ to victory since 2000, 3 of those 4 had finished 1st or 2nd in a 3M+ grade 1 hurdle and the other was 6th in a previous Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle.
    Top Weight: P0787597PF702 (0-1-13)

    Official Ratings
    Horses rated 140 or higher: 7-20-128
    Horses rated 130 to 139: 2-9-76
    Horses rated 129 or below: 1-0-10
    7 of last 9 winners were officially rated 140 to 149, they also accounted for 22 of 34 places in last 9 years.

    Recent/Past Form
    7 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 142+ on last chase start
    8 of 10 winners were 1st or 2nd season chasers (both exceptions were 3rd season chasers)
    9 of 10 winners had gained 1 to 3 previous wins over fences (exception yet to win from 3 chase runs)
    8 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or better chase (2 exceptions were novice chasers that had finished 2nd in a grade 1 3M Hurdle)
    10 of 10 winners had won over 3M+
    9 of 10 winners had run in 9 or fewer handicap chases
    10 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases
    9 of 10 winners had won or placed in a hurdle or chase worth 28K+
    10 of 10 winners had run in a class 2 or graded race over 2M 5F+ at Cheltenham

    Other Races
    Previous year's winner (Un Temps Pour Tout): F0 (0-0-2)
    Genius by Bet Bright Cheltenham Festival Fund Veterans' Handicap Chase winner (Killala Quay): 17 (1-0-2)
    32Red.com Handicap Chase winner (Double Shuffle): 22 (0-2-2)
    Unicoin Group Handicap Chase winner (Theatre Guide): P2 (0-1-2)
    BetBright Chase winner (Pilgrims Bay): PF (0-0-2)
    Record of horses that won or placed in Skybet Chase: 412 (1-2-3)
    3 of 10 winners ran in that season's Cleeve Hurdle, finishing 055
    2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Liverpool Hurdle, finishing 23
    2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Stayers' Hurdle, finishing 96
    2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's World Series Hurdle, finishing 24
    2 of 10 winners ran in the United House Gold Cup, finishing 7P
    2 of last 4 novice winners were placed in a 3M Exeter Novices' Chase in November

    Trainers
    Jonjo O’Neill (3-0-11) has saddled 3 winners (2009, 2012 & 2014) in past 10 years and also trained runner-up in 2016.
    David Pipe (2-3-15) trained the winners in 2008 & 2016 and has also saddled The Package to be placed in 3 of last 7 runnings.
    Alan King (1-1-9) trained the winner in 2004 & 2011
    Neil Mulholland (1-1-4) trained the winner in 2015 & 3rd in 2016.
    Colin Tizzard (1-0-6) trained the winner in 2013.
    Nicky Henderson (0-3-11) last trained the winner in 2000 and has seen 5 of his last 13 runners get placed.
    Donald McCain (0-2-2) trained Our Mick to be placed in 2012 & 2013.
    Henry De Bromhead (0-1-2), Ian Williams (0-1-3) & Philip Hobbs (0-1-7) have all saddled 1 placed finisher in past 10 years.
    Tony Martin (0-1-4) trained the winner in 2006 and 3rd in 2015, both had won/placed in Thyestes on previous start.
    Paul Nicholls (0-1-10), Venetia Williams (0-1-14), Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-0-16) have managed just 2 places from their collective 40 runners since 2007.
    There had been no Irish trained (0-5-17) winner for 38 years before Youlneverwalkalone won it in 2003. Dun Doire then managed to repeat the feat in 2006, though there has been no Irish winner in last 10 years. Last 2 Irish winners had finished in first 3 in a handicap chase in Britain earlier that season.

    Price
    No strong trend on price, as 6 of 10 winners were priced between 5/1 and 10/1 but there has been 3 big shocks in the last 10 years, with a 50/1 winner in 2007, a 33/1 in 2010 & a 28/1 in 2013.
    Favourites (1-5-13) have a poor record in the race having won just 1 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 4.00.

    Summary:
    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    - Aged 7 to 10 (ideally 7 or 8)
    - Irish bred
    - Carrying 10-13 or less (or previously placed in a grade 1 hurdle over 3M)
    - Officially rated 140 to 149
    - Posted an RPR of 142+ last time
    - Won over 3M+
    - First or second season chaser
    - Won 1 to 3 times over fences
    - Has run in 9 or fewer handicap chases (won no more than 2)
    - Won a class 3 or better handicap chase
    - Won or placed in a NH race worth 39K+
    - Finished in first 6 in 2016 World Series, Stayers, Liverpool Hurdle and/or 2017 Cleeve Hurdle
    - Trained by Jonjo O’Neill, Alan King, Tony Martin, Neil Mulholland or David Pipe

    2 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (6th March 2017),  Robbo (10th March 2017)  


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