QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE TRENDS 2017

The highlight of the second day of the Cheltenham Festival is the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase. The previous season’s Arkle has proven the most reliable guide to finding the winner and Douvan is many people's banker of the meeting.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 1-0-1
6yo: 2-2-8
7yo: 2-2-14
8yo: 1-3-24
9yo: 3-3-23
10yo: 1-6-15
11yo+: 0-3-10

horses aged 5 to 7 have a combined record of 5-4-23 (4 of 5 winners were French bred)
horses aged 8+ have a combined record of 5-15-72 (4 of 5 winners were Irish-bred)
Moscow Flyer in 2005 has been the only winner aged over 10 in last 30 years, while last year, Sprinter Sacre became the first winner aged over 9 since 2005. Both winners aged older than 9 this century were previous winners of the race.

Breeding

French bred: 6-5-35
Irish bred: 3-10-40
British bred: 1-2-14
German bred: 0-2-5
NZ Bred: 0-0-1
Most Irish bred runners don’t run in this until they are at least 8 (last 4 Irish bred winners were aged 8+) but the continental 2M chasers seem to peak much younger:
French & German bred horses aged 5 to 7: 4-4-19
French & German bred horses aged 8 or older: 2-4-21
Sire De Grugy & Edredon Bleu have been the only French bred winners aged 8 in past 20 years, while Sprinter Sacre (2016) has been the only French bred winner aged older than 8 in past 30 years.

Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners won a graded chase on their last completed start (2 exception finished 2nd & 3rd in graded chases)
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 165+ on last completed chase start
10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times that season
9 of 10 winners had run in 7 to 13 chases (exception was previous winner who had had 16 previous chase runs)
10 of 10 winners had won over 55% of their completed chase starts
9 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (exception was Sprinter Sacre in 2016, winning for second time)
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 1F+
9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 (exceptions was runner-up in only previous grade 1 start)
6 of 10 winners were course winners (1 exception hadn’t run at the track before, 1 fell on only previous course start, one was 2nd in previous season's Arkle & other was 2nd on both starts at Cheltenham, in class 1 chases)

Previous Cheltenham Festival Form

Previous season's Arkle winner (Douvan): 12112 (3-2-5)
5 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Arkle, finishing 11214
3 of 10 winners ran in the previous Champion chase, finishing 1FP
Sire De Grugy in 2014 (who arguably won a weak renewal), Master Minded in 2008 (who was having his first season racing in Great Britain) have been the only two winners not to have run in the Arkle or Champion Chase at the previous Festival.

Other races

Desert Orchid Chase winner (Special Tiara): 1214131 (4-2-7)
Tingle Creek winner (Un De Sceaux): 61P821118 (4-1-9)
Clarence House Chase winner (Un De Sceaux): 71P81112 (4-1-8)
Maghulls Novice Chase winner (Douvan): 6311P (2-1-5)
Tied Cottage Chase winner (Douvan): 1422P (1-2-5)
32Red Casino H'cap Chase winner (Garde La Victoire): 198 (1-0-3)
Previous season's Racing Post Novice Chase winner (Douvan): 415P (1-0-4)
Shloer Chase winner (Fox Norton): 74371 (1-0-5)
Paddy Power Cashcard winner (Douvan): PF6232 (0-3-6)
Ryanair Novice Chase winner (Douvan): F3P2 (0-2-4)
Punchestown Champion Chase winner (God's Own): 4PF44327 (0-2-7)
Poplar Square Chase winner (Tell Us More): 3 (0-1-1)
Previous season's November Novice Chase winner (Garde La Victoire): 3P (0-1-2)
Haldon Gold Cup winner (Sir Valentino): 72 (0-1-2)
Previous season's Irish Arkle winner (Douvan): 4652 (0-1-4)
Shawbrook Handicap Chase winner (Sire De Grugy): 03 (0-0-2)
Hilly Way Chase winner (Douvan): 564P (0-0-4)
6 of 10 winners ran in the Tingle Creek, finishing 214111
2 of 2 Irish-trained winners ran in Tied Cottage Chase last time, finishing 13
5 of 8 British-trained winners ran in Clarence House Chase, finishing 12111
4 of 8 British-trained winners ran in previous Maghull Novice Chase, finishing 2114
4 of 8 British-trained winners ran in Desert Orchid Chase, finishing 1111
3 of 8 British-trained winners (last 3) ran in the Shloer Chase, finishing 231
2 of 8 British-trained winners ran in the Game Spirit Chase last time, finishing U1
2 of 8 British-trained winners ran in previous season's November Chase, finishing 21
2 of 8 British-trained winners ran in previous season's Celebration Chase, finishing 12

Trainers

Paul Nicholls (3-0-14) won back to back runnings in 2008 & 2009 with Master Minded and also took it in 2015 with Dodging Bullets. His 4 winners since 2000 have all been aged 7 or younger (3 were French breds).
Nicky Henderson (3-1-10) has trained 3 of the last 5 winners of the Queen Mother, including twice with the mighty Sprinter Sacre.
Henry De Bromhead (1-4-8) has saddled Sizing Europe to finish 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 4th & 7th in 5 runnings between 2011 & 201 and also saddled Special Tiara to finish 3rd in past 2 runnings.
Alan King (1-1-3) saddled Voy Por Ustedes to finish 1st & 2nd in 2007 & 2008.
Gary Moore (1-0-3) trained Sire De Grugy to win this in 2014.
Mick Channon (0-2-4) saddled Somersby to finish runner-up in 2014 & 2015.
Willie Mullins (0-1-6) has seen just 1 of his 7 runners since 2000 make the frame.
Irish trained runners (2-9-30) have won 4 of the last 12 from just over 30% of the total runners. The first 2 home in 2010, the first 4 home in 2011, the 2nd & 3rd in 2012, 2nd in 2013, the 3rd in 2015 & the 2nd & 3rd in 2016 were all trained in Ireland.

Price

8 of 10 winners were priced 5/1 or below
The 3 winners priced higher than 5/1 were all trained in Ireland.
Favourites (4-2-10) have taken 4 of the last 10 but show a level stakes loss of 1.14.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- French bred aged 5 to 7 or Irish bred aged 8 or 9
- Won a graded chase on last completed outing
- Posted an RPR of 165+ last time out
- Run 2 to 3 times this season
- Run 7 to 13 times over fences (or a previous Champion Chase winner)
- Won over 50% of completed career chase starts
- 2nd or 3rd season chaser (or previous Champion Chase winner)
- Won over at least 2M 1F
- Previously won a grade 1 chase
- Course winner (or having first course run)
- Won the Arkle or ran in Champion Chase at 2016 Festival
- Finished in the first 3 in 2016 Tingle Creek, Shloer and/or Maghull Novice Chase
- Won 2016 Kingmaker Novice Chase and/or Desert Orchid
- Ran in Game Spirit, Clarence House or Tied Cottage Chase last time
- Trained by Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson or in Ireland