Close

Results 1 to 2 of 2
  1. #1
    DF VIP Member ganjaman2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    croseyceiliog
    Posts
    1,929
    Thanks
    352
    Thanked:        1,639
    Karma Level
    352

    Default day 3 cheltenham festival trends

    RYANAIR CHASE TRENDS 2017

    The Ryanair Chase was introduced to the Festival in 2005 as a grade 2 chase over 2M 5F for horses whose best trip fell between the Champion Chase and Gold Cup distances. It became a grade 1 chase in 2008 and has grown stronger each year. It makes up part of the supporting card to the World Hurdle on the Thursday and, in recent years, the King George at Kempton has provided the key clues for this.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the 10 previous runnings:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)

    6yo: 1-2-4
    7yo: 3-5-18
    8yo: 3-7-39
    9yo: 1-4-29
    10yo: 2-1-12
    11yo+: 0-1-10

    No very strong trends on the age of the winner in this race though all three 10yo winners of this had finished 1st or 2nd in a Ryanair or RSA Chase at a previous Festival.
    9 of 11 horses aged 6 or 7 to make the frame were French Bred.

    Gender

    Mares (0-2-4) have gained 2 places from 4 runners in this.

    Breeding

    French bred: 4-9-37
    Irish bred: 4-9-61
    British bred: 2-1-10
    German bred: 0-1-4
    French & British bred horses have won 6 of 10 from just 42% of total runners.

    Recent/Past Form

    10 of 10 winners had 1 to 4 runs that season
    7 of 10 winners achieved an RPR of 154+ on their last chase start
    9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 158+ in 1 or both of last 2 completed chase starts
    9 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (6 over 2M4F to 2M5F)
    6 of 10 winners had won a class 1 chase at Cheltenham (2 of 4 exceptions had finished 2nd in previous year's Arkle or JLT)
    10 of 10 winners had won a graded race
    Since race became a grade 1, 8 of 9 winners had won a grade 1 chase & other had won Paddy Power Gold Cup
    10 of 10 winners were officially rated 152+
    10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 5F or further

    Other race

    Ascot Chase winner: 42117 (2-1-5)
    Melling Chase winner (God's Own): 6251 (1-1-4)
    Shloer Chase winner (Fox Norton): 81 (1-0-2)
    Previous year's JLT Novice Chase winner (Black Hercules): PP91 (1-0-4)
    Bet Victor Gold Cup winner (Taquin De Seuil): 71980 (1-0-5)
    Belfast Titanic Chase winner (Sub Lieutenant): 3 (0-1-1)
    Growise Novice Chase winner (Zabana): 2 (0-1-1) 23 Apr
    Kinloch Brae Chase winner (Sizing John): 3 (0-1-1)
    Charlie Hall Chase winner (Irish Cavalier): 24 (0-1-2)
    John Durkan Memorial Chase winner (Djakadam): 553 (0-1-3)
    Gowran Park Champion Chase winner (Ballycasey): 88 (0-0-2)
    Weatherbys General Stud Book Graduation Chase winner (Josses Hill): 76 (0-0-2)
    Peterborough Chase winner (Josses Hill): 56647PP4 (0-0-8)
    Highest placed finisher from last year’s Ryanair: 61P512466 (2-1-9)
    Highest placed finisher from King George: 5127145551 (3-1-10)
    7 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishing 266P552
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Chase last time, finishing 211
    3 of 10 winners ran in Stella Artois 1965 Chase, finishing 1F1
    2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's race, finishing 21
    2 of 10 winners ran in that season's Paddy Power Gold Cup, finishing F1
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Bowl, finishing 33
    3 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase, finishing 1U1
    3 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in previous JLT Novice Chase, finishing 221
    2 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in Berkshire Novice Chase, finishing 21
    Since this became a grade 1 record of horses that ran in the King George: 61P21741174541051PR85421 (7-2-24)
    Four horses that placed in Paddy Power Gold off marks of 150+ were John’s Spirit (5th in 2015), Hidden Cyclone (2nd in 2014), Poquelin (2nd in 2010) & Fondmort (1st in 2006).

    Trainers

    Jonjo O’Neill (2-1-7) trained Albertas Run to win back to back renewals in 2010 & 2011.
    Alan King (1-2-7) won this in 2015 with Uxizandre.
    Willie Mullins (1-2-9) trained the 1-2 in 2016.
    Paul Nicholls (1-2-12) trained the winners in 2005 & 2007, while Nicky Henderson (1-2-12) trained the winner in 2006 & 2012.
    Colin Tizzard (1-0-3) won it with Cue Card in 2013.
    Irish trained runners (1-9-32) gained their first win in this race with Vautour in 2016 and they filled all 3 places last year.
    Gordon Elliot (0-1-1) & Noel Meade (0-1-7) have saddled the 3rd place in last 2 years.

    Price

    10 of 12 previous winners were priced 6/1 or below and came from the first 3 in the betting.
    Albertas Run in 2010 at 14/1 & Uxizandre at 16/1 in 2015 have been the only two double-figure priced winners in the race’s history.
    Favourites (3-4-11) have won 3 of the 10 runnings & show a level stakes profit of 0.50.

    Summary:

    Based on the trends from the past 9 runnings you are looking for a horse:
    - Aged 8 to 10 (or a French bred 6 or 7yo)
    - Had 1 to 4 runs since October
    - Finished in first 3 last time (or ran in the King George)
    - Achieved RPR of 154+ on last chase run
    - Posted an RPR of 158+ in 1 or both of last 2 completed starts
    - Won over 2M 5F+
    - Previously won a graded chase at Cheltenham
    - Previously won a grade 1 chase
    - Officially rated 152+
    - Second season chaser that won Berkshire and/or Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase
    - Ran in the King George this season (ideally finishing in first 6)
    - Finished in first 2 in 2016 Ryanair or JLT Novice Chase
    - Finished in first 3 in Ascot Chase last time out
    - Trained by Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson, Alan King or Jonjo O’Neill
    - From first 3 in the betting (6/1 or below)

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (17th February 2017)  


  2. #2
    DF VIP Member ganjaman2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    croseyceiliog
    Posts
    1,929
    Thanks
    352
    Thanked:        1,639
    Karma Level
    352

    Default Re: day 3 cheltenham festival trends

    JLT NOVICE CHASE 2017


    The first race on day 3 is one of the newest races added to the Festival, the JLT Novice Chase, run over 2M 4F for novice chasers. It was first run in 2011 and Irish-based horses have taken 5 of the 6 runnings with Taquin De Seuil being the only winner based in Great Britain, when he took it in 2014.

    With only 6 previous runnings to go on, there is a huge amount of data to go on for trends:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)

    5yo: 0-1-4
    6yo: 2-3-20
    7yo: 4-6-26
    8yo: 0-2-9
    9yo+: 0-0-4
    7yos have won 4 of 6 and filled 10 of 18 places, though have represented 47.6% of total runners.
    Both 6yo winners were French bred geldings, sired by Robin Des Champs, and trained by Willie Mullins.

    Breeding

    French Bred: 3-4-25
    Irish Bred: 2-7-31
    German Bred: 1-0-3
    British Bred: 0-1-4

    Recent/Past Form

    5 of 6 winners finished in first 2 in a grade 1 or 2 last time (exception fell at last in grade 2 when leading)
    6 of 6 winners posted an RPR of 150+ last time out
    6 of 6 winners had last run between 30 and 55 days ago
    6 of 6 winners had run in 3 to 5 chases
    6 of 6 winners had won over 2M 4F
    4 of 6 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase (exception 2nd in grade 1 chases on last 2 starts & other would have won grade 2 last time but for final fence fall)
    6 of 6 winners had run in 3 to 11 hurdles
    6 of 6 winners were rated 140+ over hurdles
    The 6 winners had run in a combined 22 chases, finishing 1st or 2nd in 19 of those 22 (2 other runs were 3rd & 4th in grade 1 company and other was a fall when leading in a grade 2).

    Other Races

    Previous season's Deloitte Novice Hurdle winner (Bleu Et Rouge): 11 (2-0-2)
    Killiney Novice Chase winner (Yorkhill): 17F1 (2-0-4)
    Altcar Novice Chase winner (Waiting Patiently): 12 (1-1-2)
    Irish Arkle winner (Some Plan): 1 (1-0-1)
    Shannon Airport Novice Chase winner (Bellshill): 710F (1-0-4)
    Scilly Isles Novice Chase winner (Top Notch): 35F2 (0-2-4)
    Drinmore Novice Chase winner (Coney Island): 3 (0-1-1)
    Gain Supporting Laois GAA Beginners Chase winner (Haymount): 3F (0-1-2)
    Rising Star Novice Chase winner (Frodon): 25 (0-1-2)
    Flogas Novice Chase winner (Disko): 2F (0-1-2)
    Berkshire Novice Chase winner (Clan Des Obeaux): 254 (0-1-3)
    Dipper Novice Chase winner (Whisper): 2F5 (0-1-3)
    Ballymaloe Beginners Chase winner (Bleu Et Rouge): FU (0-0-2)
    Ryman Novice Chase winner (Whisper): 6F (0-0-2)
    3 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in Racing Post Novice Chase, finishing 242
    2 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in Irish Arkle last time, finishing 21
    2 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in Killiney Novice Chase last time, finishing 11
    2 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in previous season's Deloitte Novice Hurdle, finishing 11
    2 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in previous season's Tatts Ireland Champion Novice Hurdle, finishing 71
    6 of 6 winners ran in a hurdles race at previous year's Cheltenham Festival (2 Supreme, 1 County, 1 Neptune, 1 Albert Bartlett & 1 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys)

    Trainers

    Irish trained runners (5-3-21) have won 5 of the 6 runnings of this race.
    Willie Mullins (3-1-11) trained the winners in 2012, 2015 & 2016. His three 6yo runners have finished 1st-3rd-1st. 2 of his 3 winners were sired by Robin Des Champs.
    Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-3-5) has trained a placed finisher in 3 of the last 4 runnings.
    Alan King (0-1-1), Henry De Bromhead (0-1-2), Noel Meade (0-1-2), David Pipe (0-1-3) & Philip Hobbs (0-1-4) have each saddled 1 placed finisher.
    Paul Nicholls (0-0-7) & Nicky Henderson (0-1-7) have managed just 1 placed finisher from a combined 14 runners.

    Price

    The 6 winners have been priced 4/1, 3/1, 20/1, 7/1, 6/4 & 4/1, 2 of them were second favourites and the last 2 were favourite or co-favourite.
    Favourites (2-2-8) have won 1 and filled the runners-up spot twice, show a level stakes loss of 1.85.

    Summary:

    Based on the trends from 5 previous runnings you are looking for a horse:

    - Aged 7 (or French bred 6yo)
    - Run in 3 to 5 chases this season
    - Never finished out of the first 2 in completed chase runs
    - Finished 1st or 2nd in a graded chase last time & posted an RPR of 150+ in the process
    - Had won a grade 1 or 2 chase (or 2nd in a grade 1)
    - Had won over 2M 4F
    - Run in 3 to 11 hurdles & officially rated 140+ over hurdles
    - Ran in a hurdle at the 2016 Festival
    - Ran in the Irish Arkle, Killiney and/or Racing Post Novice Chase
    - Won 2016 Deloitte, Supreme and/or Tattersalls Champion Novice Hurdle
    - Trained in Ireland (ideally by Willie Mullins) or Nigel Twiston-Davies

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (17th February 2017)  


Similar Threads

  1. day1 cheltenham festival trends
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 6
    Last Post: 6th March 2017, 04:37 PM
  2. day 4 cheltenham festival trends
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 23rd February 2017, 06:11 PM
  3. day 2 cheltenham festival trends
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 16th February 2017, 06:44 PM
  4. day 3 cheltenham festival trends 2014
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 6
    Last Post: 27th February 2014, 03:14 AM
  5. day 4 cheltenham festival trends 2012
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 6
    Last Post: 11th March 2012, 12:58 PM

Social Networking Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •