RYANAIR CHASE TRENDS 2017
The Ryanair Chase was introduced to the Festival in 2005 as a grade 2 chase over 2M 5F for horses whose best trip fell between the Champion Chase and Gold Cup distances. It became a grade 1 chase in 2008 and has grown stronger each year. It makes up part of the supporting card to the World Hurdle on the Thursday and, in recent years, the King George at Kempton has provided the key clues for this.
Below we take a look at the trends for the 10 previous runnings:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 1-2-4
7yo: 3-5-18
8yo: 3-7-39
9yo: 1-4-29
10yo: 2-1-12
11yo+: 0-1-10
No very strong trends on the age of the winner in this race though all three 10yo winners of this had finished 1st or 2nd in a Ryanair or RSA Chase at a previous Festival.
9 of 11 horses aged 6 or 7 to make the frame were French Bred.
Gender
Mares (0-2-4) have gained 2 places from 4 runners in this.
Breeding
French bred: 4-9-37
Irish bred: 4-9-61
British bred: 2-1-10
German bred: 0-1-4
French & British bred horses have won 6 of 10 from just 42% of total runners.
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had 1 to 4 runs that season
7 of 10 winners achieved an RPR of 154+ on their last chase start
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 158+ in 1 or both of last 2 completed chase starts
9 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (6 over 2M4F to 2M5F)
6 of 10 winners had won a class 1 chase at Cheltenham (2 of 4 exceptions had finished 2nd in previous year's Arkle or JLT)
10 of 10 winners had won a graded race
Since race became a grade 1, 8 of 9 winners had won a grade 1 chase & other had won Paddy Power Gold Cup
10 of 10 winners were officially rated 152+
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 5F or further
Other race
Ascot Chase winner: 42117 (2-1-5)
Melling Chase winner (God's Own): 6251 (1-1-4)
Shloer Chase winner (Fox Norton): 81 (1-0-2)
Previous year's JLT Novice Chase winner (Black Hercules): PP91 (1-0-4)
Bet Victor Gold Cup winner (Taquin De Seuil): 71980 (1-0-5)
Belfast Titanic Chase winner (Sub Lieutenant): 3 (0-1-1)
Growise Novice Chase winner (Zabana): 2 (0-1-1) 23 Apr
Kinloch Brae Chase winner (Sizing John): 3 (0-1-1)
Charlie Hall Chase winner (Irish Cavalier): 24 (0-1-2)
John Durkan Memorial Chase winner (Djakadam): 553 (0-1-3)
Gowran Park Champion Chase winner (Ballycasey): 88 (0-0-2)
Weatherbys General Stud Book Graduation Chase winner (Josses Hill): 76 (0-0-2)
Peterborough Chase winner (Josses Hill): 56647PP4 (0-0-8)
Highest placed finisher from last year’s Ryanair: 61P512466 (2-1-9)
Highest placed finisher from King George: 5127145551 (3-1-10)
7 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishing 266P552
3 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Chase last time, finishing 211
3 of 10 winners ran in Stella Artois 1965 Chase, finishing 1F1
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's race, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in that season's Paddy Power Gold Cup, finishing F1
2 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Bowl, finishing 33
3 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase, finishing 1U1
3 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in previous JLT Novice Chase, finishing 221
2 of 6 second season chaser winners ran in Berkshire Novice Chase, finishing 21
Since this became a grade 1 record of horses that ran in the King George: 61P21741174541051PR85421 (7-2-24)
Four horses that placed in Paddy Power Gold off marks of 150+ were John’s Spirit (5th in 2015), Hidden Cyclone (2nd in 2014), Poquelin (2nd in 2010) & Fondmort (1st in 2006).
Trainers
Jonjo O’Neill (2-1-7) trained Albertas Run to win back to back renewals in 2010 & 2011.
Alan King (1-2-7) won this in 2015 with Uxizandre.
Willie Mullins (1-2-9) trained the 1-2 in 2016.
Paul Nicholls (1-2-12) trained the winners in 2005 & 2007, while Nicky Henderson (1-2-12) trained the winner in 2006 & 2012.
Colin Tizzard (1-0-3) won it with Cue Card in 2013.
Irish trained runners (1-9-32) gained their first win in this race with Vautour in 2016 and they filled all 3 places last year.
Gordon Elliot (0-1-1) & Noel Meade (0-1-7) have saddled the 3rd place in last 2 years.
Price
10 of 12 previous winners were priced 6/1 or below and came from the first 3 in the betting.
Albertas Run in 2010 at 14/1 & Uxizandre at 16/1 in 2015 have been the only two double-figure priced winners in the race’s history.
Favourites (3-4-11) have won 3 of the 10 runnings & show a level stakes profit of 0.50.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 9 runnings you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 8 to 10 (or a French bred 6 or 7yo)
- Had 1 to 4 runs since October
- Finished in first 3 last time (or ran in the King George)
- Achieved RPR of 154+ on last chase run
- Posted an RPR of 158+ in 1 or both of last 2 completed starts
- Won over 2M 5F+
- Previously won a graded chase at Cheltenham
- Previously won a grade 1 chase
- Officially rated 152+
- Second season chaser that won Berkshire and/or Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase
- Ran in the King George this season (ideally finishing in first 6)
- Finished in first 2 in 2016 Ryanair or JLT Novice Chase
- Finished in first 3 in Ascot Chase last time out
- Trained by Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson, Alan King or Jonjo O’Neill
- From first 3 in the betting (6/1 or below)
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