day 4 cheltenham festival trends

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CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP TRENDS 2017

The Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup takes place on Friday, 17th March and is highlight of the Festival for many. The fourth day is generally sold out in anticipation of a great spectacle and the race rarely fails to deliver. The key trends for the race seem to point to a horse aged 6 to 9 that finished 1st or 2nd in the King George, Lexus or Denman Chase this season.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)


6yo: 1-1-4
7yo: 1-7-23
8yo: 4-4-40
9yo: 4-3-30
10yo: 0-3-22
11yo: 0-2-9
12yo+: 0-0-3


horses aged 6 to 9 (10-15-97) have won the last 10 runnings.
horses aged 10+ (0-5-34) have gained no wins and 5 places in the last 10 runnings from approximately 26% of the total runners.
3 of 5 placed finishers aged 10+ had won a previous Gold Cup. One had won the previous season’s Aintree Grand National and the other had won that season’s Thyestes Chases.

Breeding


Irish Bred: 5-8-60
French Bred: 3-10-47
British Bred: 1-2-21
German Bred: 1-0-2
American Bred 0-0-1
Irish and French bred horses had dominated prior to 2015, winning the previous 19 renewals between them. Coneygree broke the sequence in 2015, becoming the first GB bred winner since Master Oats in 1995, and German bred Don Cossack won it in 2016.

Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exception were 5th in King George & 6th in Irish Hennessy)
9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times that season (exception had won Hennessy Gold Cup on only run that season)
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 162+ on last completed start (1 exceptions posted an RPR of 177 on penultimate start)
8 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 171+ in last 2 starts
7 of 10 winners had run in 5 to 9 chases in their career
8 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (exceptions were Kauto Star winning it a second time & Coneygree winning it as a novice)
10 of 10 winners had won over 3M+
10 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase
7 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase that season (exceptions were Imperial Commander beaten a short head in grade 1 Betfair Chase, Bobs Worth won Hennessy Gold Cup on only run that season & Lord Windermere in 2014)
4 of 4 second season chaser winners had won a grade 1 novice chase

Previous Cheltenham Form


Highest placed finisher from last year to return: 022FP345P2 (0-4-10)
RSA Chase winner (Blaklion): P195113 (3-1-7)
4M NH Novice Chase winner (Minella Rocco): 9 (0-0-1)
4 of 4 second season chaser winners ran in RSA Chase, finishing 1311
2 of 10 winners ran in Ryanair Chase, finishing 13
1 of 10 winners ran in the previous Gold Cup, finishing 2nd
1 of 10 winners ran in the Queen Mother, in which he fell
8 of 10 winners ran in a chase at the previous Festival (exceptions were Synchronised in 2012, who was placed in Midlands National on the Saturday of Cheltenham week the previous year and Coneygree, who missed previous season due to injury)
7 of 10 winners had previously finished in first 3 at the Festival (1 exception was Kauto Star who fell when favourite in the Queen Mother and other 2 were Synchronised & Coneygree who was having first run at Festival)

Other races


King George winner (Thistlecrack): 121F1P347F (3-2-9)
Denman Chase winner (Native River): 1183F1 (3-1-6)
Lexus Chase winner (Outlander): 01371533 (2-3-8)
JN Wine Champion Chase winner (Valseur Lido): 01331 (2-2-5)
Hennessy Gold Cup winner (Native River): 618201066 (2-1-9)
Punchestown Gold Cup winner (Carlingford Lough): P341 (1-1-4)
Betfair Chase winner (Cue Card): 12PFPPF7F (1-1-9)
Previous season's Feltham winner (Tea For Two): 1 (1-0-1)
Kinloch Brae Chase winner (Sizing John): 01 (1-0-2)
Thyestes Chase winner (Champagne West): 22 (0-2-2)
John Durkan Memorial Chase winner (Djakadam): 2 (0-1-1)
Growise Champion Novice Chase winner (Zabana): 0P29 (0-1-4)
Irish Gold Cup winner (Sizing John): 04P2U94 (0-1-7)
Mildmay Novice Chase winner (Native River): F4 (0-0-2)
Welsh National winner (Native River): PP (0-0-2)
Aintree Bowl winner (Cue Card): 547 (0-0-3)
Charlie Hall Chase winner (Irish Cavalier): PFF (0-0-3)
5 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishing 1151F
3 of 10 winners ran in the Lexus Chase, finishing 117
8 of 10 winners ran in the Lexus or King George that season (5 had won 1 of them)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Betfair Chase, finishing 1U2
3 of 10 winners ran in the Denman Chase, finishing 111
2 of 10 winners ran in JNWine.com Champion Chase, finishing 11
3 of 4 second season chaser winners ran in Hennessy Gold Cup, finishing 118
2 of 4 second season chaser winners ran in Feltham Novice Chase, finishing 13
2 of 4 second season chaser winners ran in Berkshire Novice Chase, finishing 11

Trainers


Paul Nicholls (3-6-25) has trained 3 of the last 10 winners of this and seen over a third of his runners make the places since 2007.
Jonjo O’Neill (1-2-6) won this in 2012 with Synchronised and has also filled 2 other places.
Gordon Elliot (1-0-1) won it with Don Cossack in 2016 and Jim Culloty (1-0-2) won it last year with Lord Windermere.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-4) trained Imperial Commander to win in 2010.
Willie Mullins (0-5-11) has found 5 places from 11 runners, including the runners-up spot in past 4 runnings.
David Bridgwater (0-2-4) has saddled The Giant Bolster to finish 2nd, 4th & 3rd and pull up in past 4 runnings.
Irish trained runners (2-6-27) won the race in 2005 and filled the first 3 positions in 2006 but then struggled in next few years, failing to fill a single place between 2007 & 2012. Things have brightened up recently though as Sir Des Champs finished 2nd in 2013 & Lord Windermere & On His Own finished 1-2 in 2014, Djakadam & Road To Riches finished 2nd & 3rd in 2015 while the Irish filled first 4 places last year.

Price
9 of 10
winners came from the first 3 in the betting
Prior to Lord Windermere’s win last year, there has been no winner priced bigger than 8/1 since 2000. However in the past 10 years horses priced 14/1 or bigger have filled 7 of 30 places (1 winner, 2 seconds and 4 thirds).
Favourites (5-3-10) have taken 5 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 6.50.

Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Aged 6 to 9
- Had 5 to 11 career chase starts (2 to 5 this season)
- Finished in first 2 in all chase starts over 2M 6F+ this season
- Second or third season chaser (or previous winner of Gold Cup)
- Won last time out and posted RPR of 162+
- Posted an RPR of 171+ in last 2 chase starts
- Won over 3M+
- Previously won a grade 1 chase (ideally this season)
- Finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase at 2016 Festival (ideally the 2016 RSA)
- Finished in first 2 in Hennessy Gold Cup, Betfair and/or Denman Chase
- Finished 1st or 2nd in either the Lexus or King George this season
- From first 3 in the betting (favourite does especially well)
- Trained by Paul Nicholls, Willie Mullins or Gordon Elliot