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    DF VIP Member ganjaman2's Avatar
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    Default Selections for Saturday 11/3/2017

    1.50 Sandown – European Breeders’ Fund Matchbook VIP ‘National Hunt’ Novices Handicap Hurdle Final (Grade 3).

    This is certainly an extremely difficult race in which to narrow the field down as most look feasibly handicapped, unexposed and capable of winning a race of this nature. The ground will certainly be a key factor, with any novice that has already shown a dislike or has worries on soft ground readily passed over.


    Despite his excellent record in the race (won two of the last seven renewals), Nicky Henderson has one such horse – top weight Phobiaphiliac, who has raced on soft ground only once over hurdles and was pulled up. The way he dropped out rapidly there was alarming and he’s one to wait for better ground for. Gaitway, also hailing from the stable, is another with worries over a surface that he’s never encountered before and combined with a step up in trip to two and a half miles, for me, makes him one to be very wary of, even though a mark of 126 could well be lenient.


    Paul Nicholls also has a good record, winning two of the last seven renewals, and his handicappers always have to be respected – especially at this time of the year, when they’re trained to peak. Cash Again looks like he’s been aimed at this race and his efforts after being held up in his two races before this have been encouraging. He clearly has no worries over a soft surface and stays well, while a mark of 121 looks an exploitable one. He could well be well enough handicapped to reverse the Fakenham form with his conqueror on that day, The Mighty Don, with a 9lb swing in the weights in his favour. Nick Gifford’s five-year-old had his own way that day and stole a march on the field, but his jumping was shaky and there will be plenty of competition for the lead here, so it wouldn’t shock me at all if Nicholls’ horse finished in front of that rival.


    Joining Nick Gifford’s horse towards the top of the weights is the current favourite and impressive winner last time out, Full Irish. Emma Lavelle’s six-year-old made all in pretty nasty conditions at Leicester and put the 136-rated Lazer Light well in his place in receipt of just 6lb. Playing a numbers game, Full Irish’s subsequent of 130 doesn’t handicap him out of things at all, but it may have been that he just handled conditions better than anything else on the day. It won’t be anywhere near as soft here at Sandown Park and he’s unlikely to get his own way up front, so he might be a sitting duck later on in the race and I’m happy to leave him alone at the prices.


    The second favourite at the time of writing, MINELLA AWARDS, is far more interesting to my eyes. Harry Fry’s six-year-old is very lightly raced, still a maiden and clearly not the easiest to train, but his two-length second behind No Comment (now rated 137) is a very good piece of form in the contest of this race. A mark of 128 could be nowhere near this horse’s true ability and he’s already proved himself over this trip and in these ground conditions. He’ll surely have improved plenty from that first run in a year and just his third over obstacles and I think he’ll be tough to keep out of the frame in a strongly run race in soft ground, which should suit this six-year-old with plenty of stamina in his pedigree.
    There are lots of other interesting types in the race, for example Lithic, who was a very impressive winner at Huntingdon last time out. Jonjo O’Neill’s string is always fit and firing this time of year so he has to be respected, but this real stamina test may not suit, even though he’s clearly well-treated under a penalty. David Pipe’s Ramses De Teillee is another to note, improving at a steady rate so far over hurdles and he has run creditable races from the front in each of his three efforts so far. However, I’m not sure he’s good enough in company this strong, despite his light weight.


    Another Venture is a tough type who could go well for Kim Bailey if this turns into a slog, which is likely, but in going up 7lb for his win in a bog here last time, he could be handicapped out of it. One who we don’t know how closely the handicapper has in his grasp is the Nick Williams-trained Man From Mars, who has been held up and run on in every one of his three runs over hurdles so far, each of them decent contests. This step up in trip looks sure to suit and off a mark of 123, he could be nicely handicapped given he was beaten 7l by Burbank on his last run at Huntingdon, who is now rated 134. Lizzie Kelly’s 3lb claim will also help and if you’re looking for a double-figure alternative to the selection, he might be an interesting play min an open race.

    Advice

    MINELLA AWARDS – 1pt e/w @ 9/1 (William Hill, Ladbrokes) [4 places]





    2.25 Sandown – Better Odds With Matchbook Handicap Chase.




    When you look at the history of this race, it’s traditionally been won by real staying types who gallop all the way to the line – the likes of Financial Climate, Chartreux, Soll and Mon Parrain have all taken victory here and it wouldn’t surprise me if a similar type joined them.


    Masters Hill may not have won since February 2015, but he’s been placed over two and a half miles or more five times since and a mark of 137 doesn’t look prohibitive judging on his effort behind Perfect candidate at Exeter last time out. The ground should be fine for Colin Tizzard’s charge, but carrying 12st 1lb in a race this competitive can’t be a great sign, and neither is the fact that stablemate Fourth Act gets the services of stable 1st jockey Paddy Brennan.


    FOURTH ACT has dropped 3lb in the weights since his excellent pair of fourth places in a Grade 3 handicap chase at Ascot and another Grade 3 at Cheltenham and on that form, it would give him a massive chance in this race. He stays well, handles different ground from heavy to good-to-firm and is a very solid marker for the rest to aim at. It really does surprise me that he’s 8/1 here and if you can forgive his latest run over fences where he never looked right or happy at Ascot in the Listed Silver Cup Chase, he looks handicapped to go in here. FOURTH ACT has had a nice break since a hurdle race at Warwick in January, will appreciate returning to a right-handed track, significantly down in grade, and doesn’t hold any entries at Cheltenham, so can surely get back on the right track with cheekpieces reapplied and run very well here at a price that’s surprisingly big.


    Another horse who looks well-handicapped is the Jonjo O’Neill trained Upswing – we’ve spoken about how Jonjo’s horses are trained to peak at this time and the shoots of a racing recovery that were seen in this horse’s last run have to be a huge encouragement. He’s been dropped 3lb for finishing beaten by nine lengths by Blameitalonmyroots and Gevrey Chambertin and could build on that effort. However, he’s not one to set your watch by and the form of that race is not very strong at all, so even though a mark of 129 is very tempting, I’ll give him a miss, especially given the cheekpieces might not work as well the second time.


    The final two horses to mention were both winners last time out, but I’m not sure they’ll be able to shoulder the rise in the weights given to them by the handicapper. Willoughby Hedge stayed on dourly over this C&D last time out to beat the 114-rated King Of Glory and has been raised 8lb for that. The form of the race looks weak and even though he’ll clearly stay around a track he seems to enjoy, it could be too much for this ten-year-old to bear.


    Shanroe Santos won nicely at Warwick last time out, winning a bit cosier than the half-length margin would suggest, but the 4lb rise won’t make things easy in a much better race than the one he contested last time. He’s got a bit more scope than some others, being an eight-year-old with only five runs over fences to his name, but his three runs over fences off marks of 128, 125 and 125 again were uninspiring to say the least (admittedly after an injury layoff) and this could be a step too far for him.

    Advice




    FOURTH ACT – 1pt win @ 8/1 (bet365, William Hill)





    3.00 Sandown – Matchbook Imperial Cup (HANDICAP)




    The strongest trend in this race concerns weight and the cut-off appears to be set at eleven stone. Since Polar Red (11st 1lb) and Korelo (11st 6lb) won in 2002 and 2003 respectively all of the subsequent winners carried less than 11st to victory. Of this year’s field, only five of the field sit on the right side of the trend, the bottom four as they appear on the racecard – Disputed, Darebin, Chieftain’s Choice and Not Another Muddle, as well as Spice Fair, whose jockey’s 7lb claim takes the ten-year-old below the 11st threshold.


    The trends surrounding the ages of past winners of the Imperial Cup is an intriguing one. The most successful group of runners are those aged six and below who have put their head in front in eight of the last ten renewals. There are only five horses in this year’s renewal who sit outside this particular bracket so that’s a black mark for Kayf Blanco, Gassin Golf, Spice Fair, Disputed and Chieftain’s Choice.


    Martin Pipe loved nothing more than winning the Imperial Cup, a feat he achieved six times during his career, probably something to do with the fact that the sponsor offered a whopping bonus if the winner followed up at Cheltenham. Pipe senior collected that bonus on three occasions; twice as a trainer and once as an owner. Son David has wasted no time in picking up where his father left off with back-to-back wins in 2007 and 2008. He landed his third success three years ago with Baltimore Rock and saddles Max Do Brazil in this year’s renewal.


    It is quite remarkable given the ultra-competitive nature of the Imperial Cup that seven of the last thirteen winners had achieved a top two finish on their previous start. It is often the type of race won by progressive sorts although Chieftain’s Choice is the only last time out winner in this year’s field.


    It is often said that in such competitive races, you need a horse to be battle-hardened to go well but this has actually been a race in which novice hurdlers have done exceptionally well. In fact, they have produced seven of the last ten winners. Despite having most of the field last year, they have only two representatives this time around, London Prize and Not Another Muddle.


    Despite the competitive nature of the Imperial Cup, those towards the head of the betting market have tended to do well, with the first four in the betting accounting for seven of the last ten winners. Fixe Le Kap currently heads proceedings, with the likes of William H Bonney, London Prize, Gassin Golf and Not Another Muddle in behind, although horses can still switch around at this stage.



    Shortlist

    NOT ANOTHER MUDDLE – 5/6


    Max Do Brazil – 3/6


    London Prize – 3/6



    Conclusion

    All of our field miss at least one of the trends but there is a standout candidate in the shape of NOT ANOTHER MUDDLE. The six-year-old is one of only two novices in the field and has snuck in at the bottom of the weights on 10st 8lb. This is his handicap debut having won two of his three starts in novice hurdles and having been keen last time, the pace at which this race is likely to be run could help him to settle better. The only trend he misses is that he isn’t trained by David Pipe but given Gary Moore’s strike-rate at Sandown in recent seasons, that isn’t too much of a concern. He is open to plenty of improvement on his first start in handicaps and in receipt of weight from all his rivals, he rates a strong selection.


    Also on the shortlist is Max Do Brazil who is a new recruit to the David Pipe yard, having previously been trained in France by Arnaud Chaille-Chaille. He cost his current connections £160,000 when he went through the sale ring in December and although he was pulled-up on his British debut at Cheltenham in January, he might just have needed the race on his first run since November. As I said earlier, the Pipe team have a fine record in this particular race and if he can leave his last run behind, he shouldn’t be too far away.


    The final member of the shortlist is London Prize who was travelling well in the Scottish County Hurdle when falling on his most recent hurdles start. The six-year-old has since had a spin on the flat in which he finished second and having had just the four runs over hurdles so far, we probably haven’t seen the best of him yet. He was well-backed at Musselburgh on his handicap debut so clearly plenty is thought of him and it would be no surprise to see him run a big race.



    Advice




    NOT ANOTHER MUDDLE – 0.5pt e/w @ 9/1 (SkyBet)





    3.35 Sandown – The EBF Stallions/TBA Mares’ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed Race)



    This looks like being a competitive bumper race, with 8 of the 10 runners having won last time out. There are also 4 contenders who boast unbeaten records so far and 2 challengers from across the Irish Sea.


    Fergal O’Brien’s Cap Soleil is the likely favourite in the race having won both of her starts in bumpers. The only four-year-old in the field, she was sent off evens favourite on debut in December and always travelled smoothly before winning without coming off the bridle. Up in class into Listed company at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, she was again sent off favourite and justified the market support. The filly was given a patient ride by Paddy Brennan before battling well to get the better of the Nicky Henderson-trained Daphne Du Clos. The form has been franked as the runner-up has since landed a Newbury Listed race and Henderson had seen her as a possible Cheltenham Champion Bumper candidate. That race was over 1 mile 6 furlongs so Cap Soleil will have to prove that she stays the extra distance up the Sandown hill.


    Fergal O’Brien has a strong hand in the race as he also saddles Oscar Rose. Although at a likely bigger price, the five-year-old landed a Listed bumper at Huntingdon in December when last seen. She battled well to open her account at the fourth time of asking, having finished fourth in a Listed race at Cheltenham the time before. However, the mare may find one or two of the less exposed runners too strong here.


    One of the Irish raiders in the race is the Ms Margaret Mullins-trained Martello Park. Like Oscar Rose, she got off the mark at the fourth time of asking on her previous run but did so in fine style. The five-year-old made all and obviously enjoyed the heavy conditions as she had everything else in trouble a long way from home. She went onto win by an impressive 21 lengths, but she may find it hard to repeat that against stronger opposition and with conditions unlikely to be as testing.

    It’s interesting that Willie Mullins has sent over REDHOTFILLYPEPPERS, who has a perfect record of 2 from 2. The mare won a Point-to-Point over 3 miles easily by 10 lengths on debut and was then sent off the 4/6 favourite for a Punchestown bumper in December on debut for the Mullins stable. The five-year-old put up a taking performance in the 2 miles 2 furlongs race (soft ground) as she made all, and despite racing keenly, kept on well showing that she must have a good engine. With the greenness that she showed, she has the potential for improvement here. Also, jockey Mr D H Dunsdon could make it a test of stamina as he knows that his mount has won over further, which could make REDHOTFILLYPEPPERS difficult to beat on Saturday.


    Another unbeaten mare in the race is Petticoat Tails, for the Warren Greatrex yard who has a good record bumpers and who trained The Nipper to win this last year. The mare was sent off a well-backed favourite on both of her starts, winning by 12 lengths on debut and then she was a comfortable odds-on winner at Huntingdon next time. The five-year-old has potential but this is a big step up in grade here.


    The other last time out winners in the field are Just A Thought, Whatzdjazz and Illwalktheline but they may just find the others at the head of the market too strong up in grade.



    Advice




    REDHOTFILLYPEPPERS – 2pts win @ 7/2 (Betway)





    3.55 Ayr – The Caledonia Best Handicap Hurdle Race.



    One horse battling for favouritism in this competitive handicap hurdle is Desert Cry, trained by Donald McCain. The eleven-year-old has been in fine form this season as he gained back-to-back victories, including at the course in January off top weight. Last time out he was upped in class in the Grade 2 Rendlesham Hurdle at Cheltenham where he finished fourth in a strong race won by Zarkandar. In the form that Desert Cry is in, he is difficult to dismiss here despite at the top of the handicap.


    Another at the head of the market is One For Harry who has only had the three runs so far this season. He built on his reappearance when winning over 2 miles 3 and half furlongs at Wetherby in January, staying on well to land the Class 3. The nine-year-old was up in class at Kelso last time where he finished second to the Malcolm Jefferson-trained Cyrus Darius, who Jefferson views as a Cheltenham Champion Hurdle contender. That was on heavy and he also has previous winning form on the ground so won’t mind the conditions here.



    TOMKEVI was an impressive winner at Sedgefield on his previous run, held up before staying on well on the heavy ground. He ran out a 14 lengths winner. The six-year-old has been rejuvenated since the application of cheekpieces, which he had worn earlier in his career when trained in France. He has gone up in the handidcap, but still carries a low weight here and is on a workable mark based on last season’s form, when he had gained two victories in a row. This included success against the now Grade 2 chase winner Forest Bihan. TOMKEVI could match last season and make it back-to-back wins here for trainer Rebbeca Menzies.


    Other contenders include the Phillip Kirby-trained Sakhee’s City and Maxie T for Micky Hammond. The former was third in a Class 3 at Market Rasen over 2 miles and half a furlong at Market Rasen last time. However, he may struggle back up in distance and with the testing conditions here. Maxie T was third in a Class 3 at Kelso last time out on heavy ground and prior to that was fourth to the progressive Dadsintrouble at Haydock. He will enjoy the conditions on Saturday but may find a couple too strong here.

    Advice



    TOMKEVI – 1pt win @ 4/1 (William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfair)

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (10th March 2017)  


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