Close

Results 1 to 1 of 1
  1. #1
    DF VIP Member ganjaman2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    croseyceiliog
    Posts
    1,929
    Thanks
    352
    Thanked:        1,639
    Karma Level
    351

    Default Day One of The Cheltenham Festival 14/3/2017

    1.30 Cheltenham – Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)

    Nicky Henderson ended a 24 year wait for a third winner of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle last year as Altior sprinted up the hill to victory. That success also broke the dominance of Willie Mullins, who had saddled the previous 3 winners courtesy of Champagne Fever, Vautour and Douvan. In fact, Irish runners on the whole have fared better than their British rivals, having landed 12 of the last 21 renewals. Mullins leads the Irish challenge once again this year with four contenders, Melon, Crack Mome, Bunk Off Early and Cilaos Emery.


    The market for this year’s race suggests that the Emerald Isle hold a strong hand once again with Willie Mullins’ Melon currently the horse everyone fancies to get their Festival off to a flying start. He will have a strong trend to overcome however as horses who have started their careers on the flat don’t have the best of records in recent years, just one place from 49 runners since 2008.


    Unbeaten over hurdles, Beyond Conceit is also likely to be on many shortlists but Nicky Henderson’s eight-year-old is a little older than your regular Supreme winner. horses aged 7 or older are 2/36 since the turn of the century and to find the last eight-year-old winner of the race, we have to go back to Like-A-Butterfly ridden to victory by Charlie Swan in 2002.


    Another factor to consider is that the cream normally rises to the top here with the top-rated horse in the field on BHA ratings having landed the last 3 renewals. Melon occupies that particular berth this time round, but his rating has been allocated after just one hurdles run, so Ballyandy’s rating and form look more solid.


    In tandem with the previous point, 5 of the 18 Grade 1 winners to line up in the Supreme this century have gone on to land the prize. This just accentuates the theory that quality reigns supreme (apologies for the pun!) here. However, not one of this year’s field have a Grade 1 win to their name, so one horse will be winning at the top level for the very first time here.


    The betting has proven very informative in the Supreme in recent years with 6 of the last 7 winners emanating from the top 4 positions in the market. Melon , Ballyandy, Bunk Off Early and River Wylde occupy those particular positions on the bookies’ boards at the time of writing.


    With the stiff Cheltenham finish separating the men from the boys, experienced hurdlers have proven to be the way to go with 11 of the last 13 winners having run in at least 4 hurdles prior to lining up here. All of Willie Mullins’ entries fall foul of this particular trend, as does River Wylde.


    In truth, the majority of those lining up in the Festival novice events will have won last time out but it still helps to separate the wheat from the chaff. 18 of the last 20 winners (and each of the last 6) had won on their previous start, which doesn’t bode well for the likes of Bunk Off Early, Crack Mome and Elgin.


    Headgear has been a rarity when it comes to the Supreme, but maybe that is with good reason. All 33 runners to have worn headgear here since 1992 have been beaten. With this in mind, Cilaos Emery looks to have a big task on his hands.



    Shortlist:


    Melon


    Ballyandy


    River Wylde



    By virtue of being Willie Mullins’ top-rated entry, Melon comes out on top of the trends. He could be anything and the stable vibes are very positive for this five-year-old son of Medicean. Ruby Walsh takes the ride and it may not have been a difficult decision between Melon and the rest of his stablemates as the others have all been beaten already this season. However, he doesn’t fit the ‘racing profile’ of the usual Supreme winner and would be the first horse since Flown in 1992 to win the Supreme off the back of just one run over hurdles.


    Ballyandy has a much more solid profile and was impressive in winning the Betfair Hurdle a month ago – he stays well, has experience of the Festival already and even if the ground may be a little quicker than his ideal, he looks a solid prospect to go well for Nigel Twiston-Davies.


    Although Henry De Bromhead’s Capital Force matched Ballyandy at 6/10 on the trends, he’s the second lowest rated horse in the race and was comfortably beaten by a 129-rated rival on his penultimate start on good ground, so he’s readily passed over. Instead, the shortlist is completed by another unbeaten hurdler – Nicky Henderson’s River Wylde, who has won three races very nicely indeed, including an impressive win in the Grade 2 Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle at Kempton in February where he easily accounted for Elgin. He looks progressive, likes a sound surface and jumped particularly well the last day, so must have a good each-way chance.




    2.10 Cheltenham – Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase (Grade 1)



    The hoodoo surrounding the record of the previous season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner was arrested somewhat last year with Douvan winning in facile fashion. However, he was the first horse since 1965 to follow-up and only the second horse this century to have previously contested the Supreme before prevailing here from 36 to have tried. This puts a slight blot in the copybook of Altior and Charbel.


    Previous Festival form does seem to come to the fore in the Arkle though with 9 of the last 12 winners having run in years past. Some Plan is the only runner in this year’s field to fit the bill as although he contested the Supreme two years ago, he took his place in the County Hurdle last year.


    The Irish Arkle has risen to prominence in the last couple of seasons with Un de Sceaux and Douvan both winning that particular contest before following up in the Cheltenham equivalent. Some Plan was the sole finisher in what turned out to be an eventful renewal this year with Royal Caviar tipping up at the last.
    Each of the last 7 victors had prevailed on their latest start so recent winning form is a big plus. Taking this a step further, unbeaten chasers are 9/41 this century which puts a tick in the box for red-hot favourite Altior.


    Top level form is certainly a plus when it comes to most Cheltenham Festival races and the Arkle is no different in that respect. 10 of the last 12 winners had all registered a win in either a Grade 1 or Grade 2 chase. Only Altior, Some Plan and Forest Bihan fit the bill this time round.


    Although previous experience has counted for a lot, the fact that 10 of the last 13 winners were novice hurdlers the previous season suggests that you don’t want too many miles on the clock, leaving Forest Bihan and Some Plan a bit to find in this respect.


    Age has proven to be a major factor over the years and although most of the runners tend to fall into the 6-8-year-old bracket, they are certainly the group to focus on. A more damning statistic is the record of those aged nine-years-old and upwards who are 0-24 since 1988; not a good omen for Some Plan, Royal Caviar and A Hare Breath.
    Favourites have enjoyed a successful time of things in the Arkle of late, winning 4 of the last 5 runnings. In fact, every winner this century apart from 33/1 shot Western Warhorse in 2014 were priced in single-figures so historically that tells us that outsiders are up against it. Barring a massive gamble, Altior is set to be the only horse in this year’s line-up to fall into this category.


    Shortlist:


    Altior


    Forest Bihan


    Royal Caviar


    Not only is Altior way out on his own in the market, he is rock-solid on the trends with the fact he won last year’s Supreme the only slight blemish on his otherwise stellar record (and Douvan went some way to easing Supreme winners’ pain last year). He clearly holds Charbel on their meeting in the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown back in December and has since proven himself one of the best chasers in training, let alone novices, when positively sluicing up in the Game Spirit Chase against three more experienced rivals. It would take a minor miracle for him to get beat here.


    The race in behind him for the minor honours looks very closely-matched indeed though with a number having realistic chances to finish in the money.
    Some Plan and Royal Caviar look very closely matched on their Irish Arkle showings with the latter just narrowly preferred given that he looked on top of Henry de Bromhead’s runner when coming to grief at the final fence. Aside from that one blip, his jumping has been exceptional in the main on both of his chase starts to date and while he has the age barrier to overcome being a nine-year-old, he is fairly lightly-raced with only 11 races under rules.


    Another pair with very little to choose between them are Forest Bihan and Cloudy Dream who finished 1-2 in the Grade 2 Lightning Novices’ Chase on their latest start (with A Hare Breath a further 5 lengths back in third). The former prevailed by 1 ¾ lengths at Doncaster last time but was in receipt of 3lb. However, he looked value for that at the finish given he made a bad error at the third last so is fancied to confirm the placings and earns his place on the shortlist as a result.


    Kim Bailey has opted to have another crack at Altior with Charbel taking up this engagement rather than the JLT Novices’ Chase on Thursday. The six-year-old hasn’t been seen since finishing 6 lengths adrift of his re-opposing rival at Sandown last time and while he has finished closest to Nicky Henderson’s charge over fences, he would have had to improve greatly to mix it with him at the sharp end. He can make the frame though if turning up match-fit.




    2.50 Cheltenham – Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3)



    There are some staying races at the Festival where the winners haven’t run at that sort of trip before – this is not one of them. Every single winner of this race this century has recorded their best RPR over at least 2m 7 1/2f, so you’re certainly looking for a proven stayer, best at a longer trip. horses that find themselves outside of this category include Caid Du Berlais and Clarcam.


    Although favourites haven’t got a great record in the race, (2 winning jollies since 1977) the betting is usually a good guide – 12 winners this century have come from the first 5 in the market. Noble Endeavor, Singlefarmpayment, Holywell, The Druids Nephew and Ibis Du Rheu occupy those positions at the time of writing.


    Interestingly, each of the last 5 winners of the race wore some kind of headgear, an ever increasing trend it seems in many of the staying chases at the Festival. The likes of Un Temps Pour Tout and Ibis Du Rheu have won wearing the same headgear they have in tow here.


    Perhaps not so surprisingly, those with Festival experience have outperformed those without, as only 1 of the last 8 winners of the race was making their Festival debut. Those arriving at Prestbury Park in March for the first time include Singlefarmpayment, Coologue and Henri Parry Morgan.


    Although Festival experience is key, seasoned campaigners have certainly not been the band to follow here. Only 2 of the last 9 winners had run over fences more than 9 times, a bad omen for Holywell and The Druids Nephew, while first and second-season chasers have dominated in recent times having recorded 13 wins this century, not a good sign for the likes of Theatre Guide and The Young Master.


    In a way, tying in with the previous points that younger improvers tend to make hay here, we have to go back to Joes Edge 10 years ago for the last horse to have won having already had a Graded chase under his belt. Quite a few have achieved this particular accolade in this year’s line-up including last year’s winner Un Temps Pour Tout and last year’s second, Holywell.


    Well-fancied Irish-trained contenders should always be paid attention to, while Jonjo O’Neill’s record of 2 winners, a second and a third since 2003 certainly catches the eye. He saddles Holywell and Go Conquer this year. In contrast, Paul Nicholls’ record isn’t even a patchy one with none of his 19 runners having won the contest – his runners this year, Ibis Du Rheu and Caid Du Berlais, will have this stat to overcome.


    Half of the last 14 winners have lined up here having prevailed on their previous start. A 50% strike-rate is above average for handicaps and is a tad more surprising in a Festival race where horses are more likely to be campaigned throughout the season with this as their main target. Noble Endeavor, Label Des Obeaux and Pilgrims Bay are the only three horses with a ‘1’ next to their name in this year’s line-up.



    Shortlist:


    Noble Endeavor


    Singlefarmpayment


    Ibis Du Rheu


    Label Des Obeaux


    With the trends and the market speaking very much in his favour, Gordon Elliott’s Noble Endeavor looks as if he’s set for a big run here. After winning the Grade B Paddy Power Chase in good style off a mark of 143 last time out, a mark of 153 may not be enough to anchor him in this field, especially given he was right there in last year’s National Hunt Chase before coming down 2 out. He’s shown he likes the track and the ground, so with Davy Russell booked, he’s got plenty going for him.


    Singlefarmpayment has been impressive at times this year in his first season over fences, defeating Arpege D’Alene here in December on the new course and proving his stamina and liking for a sound surface in the process. He was going well in a Novices’ Handicap Chase here in January before getting brought down and he has a good opportunity to make amends off the same mark of 142.


    The horse that was eventually third in that January contest, Ibis Du Rheu, looks to have a great chance of ending Paul Nicholls’ hoodoo in this race. He ran well that day despite the soft, winter conditions being against him and this return to three miles on a sound surface should suit him down to the ground. Of course, as last year’s winner of the Martin Pipe, he’s got valuable Festival-winning experience and with Sam Twiston-Davies on board, he could go really well at a price for a trainer who doesn’t often have a bad record in any race, so it’s about time he had a contender in this.


    Completing the shortlist is another novice chaser, Alan King’s Label Des Obeaux. A winner of both of his last starts, he’s getting better with every run and while a 7lb rise to a mark of 148 may look harsh judging by his last win, his improvement may help him to stay competitive. He may prefer a little bit of cut in the ground and has something to find with Singlefarmpayment judging by his third behind that rival here in December, but he’s another each-way proposition.




    3.30 Cheltenham – Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1)




    As the highlight of the 2m hurdling calendar, it will come as little surprise that history suggests it is best to focus on those in their prime. horses at both ends of the age spectrum don’t have the best of records, with five-year-olds 1-98 since 1985 and runners aged 10 or older are 0-19 since the turn of the century. That suggests that the bracket to focus on are those aged between 6 and 9, although there have only been three nine-year-old winners in the last 25 years. All of this year’s field fall into the bracket apart from the ten-year-old My Tent Or Yours and the pair of five-year-olds, Footpad and Sceau Royal.


    With the abysmal record of older horses, it comes as little surprise that this particular contest hasn’t leant itself to the seasoned campaigners over the years. Only 1 of the last 10 winners had raced more than 12 times over hurdles, which means The New One and Wicklow Brave look up against it.


    In terms of trainers, there is no doubt that the Irish have dominated in recent years, having been responsible for 12 of the last 18 winners. Hurricane Fly, Jezki, Faugheen and Annie Power have all landed the spoils for the Emerald Isle in recent times and their dominance was underlined in 2015 when the first four home were all trained in Ireland. Footpad and Petit Mouchoir head the Irish challenge this year.


    Although home-based animals have tended to struggle in the main, Nicky Henderson-trained runners have been the exception. horses campaigning from Seven Barrows are 5/35 in the Champion Hurdle so Brain Power and Buveur d’Air are well worth a second look.


    When looking at trials for the Champion Hurdle, 4 of the last 10 winners had run in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton, with Faugheen the last horse to do the double in 2014/15. Alan King’s Yanworth got the better of Nigel Twiston-Davies’ The New One in this season’s renewal with Ch’tibello and My Tent Or Yours in third and fourth respectively..


    On the other side of the Irish Sea, the Ryanair Hurdle and the BHP Insurance Irish Champion Hurdle both have a strong record which bodes well for Henry de Bromhead’s Petit Mouchoir, who landed both prizes this season.


    Festival form has also proven a key guide when it comes to the Champion Hurdle with horses that finished in the first 3 at last year’s meeting 15/91 since 1998. Taking this a step further, horses that competed in the previous season’s Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle have a very good record of 4/11 in the same time frame. A big plus for Yanworth.


    In stark contrast to the equivalent contest for novices, the Supreme, horses that began their careers on the Flat have a surprisingly good record here with 13 of the last 21, including 6 of the last 10, starting out on the level. A tick in the box for the likes of Ch’tibello and Sceau Royal.


    The Champion Hurdle hasn’t been averse to the odd shock over the years with 3 of the last 13 winners being sent off at 16/1 or bigger. Only Willie Mullins has saddled a favourite to victory in the last 10 years, although he has managed it four times, so it may pay to keep your eye on the lower end of the bookies’ boards. Moon Racer and Footpad in particular could outrun their double-figure prices.


    Shortlist:


    Yanworth


    Ch’tibello


    Buveur d’Air


    Not a particularly strong trends race in truth with just 2 of the field emerging marginally clear of the remainder. Yanworth has been many people’s fancy since the Willie Mullins big-guns were ruled out and he performs very well from a statistical point of view. The fact that he is the sole representative from last season’s Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle puts him at the head of affairs while his win in the Christmas Hurdle just reinforces the theory that he is a very solid option.


    Ch’tibello is a live outsider that also emerges with credit when analysing the trends. His third-placed effort in the Christmas Hurdle and the fact that he is one of only 2 declared runners to have started out on the Flat propels him into contention and he wasn’t beaten far by Yanworth in the Kingwell Hurdle last month.


    Both My Tent Or Yours and The New One also took part in the Christmas Hurdle (2nd and 4th respectively) but their very similar profiles leave them with a bit to find. The pair are 2 of the 5 runners in the field to have ran in more than 12 hurdles and Nicky Henderson’s runner also has the age factor against him at the veteran stage of his career.


    Henderson’s record in the Champion Hurdle speaks for itself and his most fancied runner Buveur d’Air completes the shortlist. He is one of only a third of the runners to have placed at last year’s Festival when third behind Altior and Min in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and created a good impression when returned to hurdles at Sandown last month having enjoyed a successful spell chasing earlier in the season.


    He denied Petit Mouchoir by a neck in the Top Novices’ Hurdle at the Aintree Festival last year and looks to hold the leading Irish candidate on their Supreme run twelve months ago.



    4.10 Cheltenham – OLBG Mares´ Hurdle (Grade 1)



    There was a new name on the roll of honour last year as Vroum Vroum Mag scooped the pot but she merely continued the dominance of Willie Mullins. The Closutton team have sent out the last eight winners of this contest and look to have a strong hand once again with last year’s Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle winner Limini lining up alongside Vroum Vroum Mag in her quest for back-to-back victories.


    Although dominated by Mullins, the race has overall tended to favour those trainers who specialise in training mares. Donald McCain landed the inaugural running with Whiteoak while Alan King has a good track record of finishing in the money. A boost for his runners here Midnight Tour and Miss Crick.


    In contrast, top trainers Gordon Elliott and Paul Nicholls have surprisingly had limited success which puts a blot in the copybook of both Apple’s Jade and Lifeboat Mona.
    Quevega’s six in a row has skewed things somewhat but the fact remains that 7 of the 9 favourites have won, and that, in all likelihood, would have been eight had Annie Power not completely fluffed the last back in 2015. Limini heads the market at the time of writing from Vroum Vroum Mag and Apple’s Jade.


    Each of the 4 winners in the short history of the Mares’ Hurdle had started their careers in a bumper so it definitely seems prudent to follow those that started life on the level under National Hunt rules. A big plus for last year’s 1-2 Vroum Vroum Mag and Rock On The Moor.


    The last 6 winners had all won over 2m6f+ prior to lining up here, suggesting that the stiff finish over the 2m4f trip at Cheltenham lends itself to those who are proven stayers over further. Only Vroum Vroum Mag, Bon Chic, Rons Dream, The Organist and Indian Stream in this year’s field fit the bill .


    The record of horses in headgear is a mixed one throughout the Festival but this race has certainly proven one for those more straightforward types. Only 1 of the 21 runners to have lined up here with some form of headgear in tow has been placed which is a bad omen for Apple’s Jade and Lifeboat Mona.


    Shortlist:


    Vroum Vroum Mag


    Limini


    Rons Dream


    Unsurprisingly with the Willie Mullins domination of the Mares’ Hurdle, his pair of runners both emerge from the statistical analysis with a lot to back up their chances. Vroum Vroum Mag was the archetypal winner last year and the only knock against her this time round is that, at the time of writing, she isn’t the market leader. That could all change by the off though and she remains with a very solid chance.


    The favourite mantle is afforded to her stablemate Limini who just misses out on a couple of the trends. Although she didn’t start her career in a bumper, she did at least start on the level when campaigned on the Flat for Nicolas Clement in France. She isn’t a proven winner beyond this trip but stayed on well enough over 2m4f last time in heavy ground to suggest that she stays well.


    Alan King’s pair are both worthy of respect given his record of finishing in the money here and there really isn’t a great deal to separate them. Neither are proven stayers but Miss Crick seems the stable first string on jockey bookings with Wayne Hutchinson in the plate, despite pulling up at Kempton when last seen back in November. Midnight Tour has a somewhat sketchy profile but has at least been progressive in handicaps since joining King and has the services of the highly-underestimated Tom Cannon to boot.


    Paul Nicholls and Gordon Elliott have a decidedly dodgy record here and both Apple’s Jade and Lifeboat Mona emerge from the trends analysis with very little in their favour.
    The Organist had threatened to develop into a top notch race-mare last year and reverts back to hurdling on the back of a disappointing debut season chasing. She could be overpriced if recapturing some of her old verve now back over the sticks but completing the shortlist is Rons Dream. Peter Bowen’s charge could only finish 9th in last year’s renewal but was never really in contention and lost all chance when making a mistake three flights from the finish. She arguably produced a career-best on her latest start when staying on strongly to land the Listed Warwick Mares’ Hurdle with considerable ease and a repeat could be good enough to see her hit the frame.




    4.50 Cheltenham – JT McNamara National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Riders’ Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)



    You need a superior type of horse to win this nowadays and only one of the last seven winners of this as a level-weights contest had not contested a Grade 1 or Grade 2 chase before coming to the Festival. Fancied contenders Beware the Bear, Tiger Roll and A Genie in Abottle are all yet to contest a chase of that particular calibre.


    As well as class, experience counts, even though this is a contest for novice chasers. 3 of the 7 winners at level weights had already ran at least 9 times over the larger obstacles while the last horse not to have had 3 runs over fences was the 1999 winner, Deejaydee. Tiger Roll and Dancing Shadow are amongst the most experienced runners here while Beware The Bear and Bells ‘N’ Banjos have a bit to find having had only 2 chase starts.


    It is not only experienced chasers that rule the roost in the National Hunt Chase as those with 2 or more seasons hurdling under their belts have a solid record of 5 winners in the last 7 years. The likes of Arbre De Vie, Arpege D’Alene and Flintham in this year’s line-up fall into this category.


    Although it may seem like a recurring theme in most of this week’s races, Festival form really can’t be underestimated, and this race is no different. 4 of the 7 winners at level weights had run at the previous season’s Festival so the chances of Champers On Ice, Martello Tower and Arpege D’Alene certainly receive a boost in this respect.


    A top-quality pilot is essential here and the best amateurs can be worth a lot when searching for a winner. The likes of Sam Waley-Cohen, Katie Walsh, the late, great JT McNamara, whom the race is named after this year, Patrick Mullins and Jamie Codd all appear on the roll of honour in the past 10 years. Derek O’Connor’s record in the race is superb and his win on Minella Rocco last year took it to 2 wins and 4 placed efforts from 11 rides. He partners Edwulf this time around.


    Talking about Minella Rocco, he proved to be a textbook winner from a ‘connections’ point of view. Not only was O’Connor in the plate, but he was owned by JP McManus who’s trademark green and gold silks have been carried to victory in this race on no less than 6 separate occasions. Edwulf is his only runner in this year’s contest.


    Conversely, Paul Nicholls has a pretty wretched record with 0/17 over the years. Nicholls has had numerous fancied runners take part but has only Harry The Viking’s second-place finish 5 years ago to boast about. With this in mind, it may be that Arpege D’Alene could fall into this category once more for the Champion trainer.


    Shortlist:


    Edwulf


    Martello Tower


    Flintham


    Wearing the colours of JP McManus and having the master Derek O’Connor on board has been a recipe for success in the race for so many years now, meaning that Edwulf must be highly respected. Joseph O’Brien’s eight-year-old has plenty of chasing experience at a high level and, rated 159, is head and shoulders above the rest on ratings alone. His jumping has been a worry at times though, and this better ground will be a new experience, but this ex point-to-pointer should relish the extra test of the four miles and don’t forget that an iffy jumper, in the shape of Minella Rocco, defeated the Gold Cup contender Native River in this race last year.


    Wearing blinkers for the first time, Martello Tower could find some extra improvement for this trip and being a Cheltenham Festival winner already (2015 Albert Bartlett winner), he’s shown he can handle the big occasion. Again, this good ground may not be ideal for him, but he’s a strong stayer and the booking of Stephen Clements is a good one.


    Flintham has always looked a grizzled staying type, very much in the mould of his half-brother Coneygree and full-brother Carruthers, and could really enjoy this test of stamina. He’s flashed real potential this season, winning over 3m2f over hurdles and then just being touched off by Bigbadjohn over three miles and fences at Ascot. He’s likely to enjoy returning to a left-handed track and a longer trip, so can reverse that form and go well at a price under last year’s second in this, Mikey Legg, who rode Native River.


    5.30 Cheltenham – Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Steeple Chase (Listed Race)



    Whilst Irish-trained runners have a favourable record in most of the races at the Festival, this is a race in which they have struggled, with Tom Taaffe’s Finger OnThe Pulse their only winner since the race’s inception. The Irish contingent looking to overcome this stat are headed by the likes of Last Goodbye, Tully East and All Hell Let Loose.


    Also in contrast to the majority of Festival races, the so-called ‘big boys’ haven’t found this race to be a happy hunting ground. Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs and Nicky Henderson are the only trainers you’d class as ‘powerhouses’ to have trained the winner in the 12 runnings so far which gives a boost to Mixboy and Captain Redbeard among others who are perceived to be campaigned by ‘smaller’ yards searching for their first Festival winners (4 winners of the race have done just that in it’s short history).
    The market has perhaps proved the best guide to this race in recent years with 9 of the 12 winners coming from the first 5 in the market. Ferdy Murphy’s L’Antartique was the last big-priced winner when obliging at 20/1 in 2007 but on the whole it has paid to focus on those towards the head of the market. Foxtail Hill, It’safreebee, Gold Present, Two Taffs and Hammersly Lake top the bookies’ boards at the time of writing.


    horses wearing headgear for the first time should also be feared when it comes to the Festival. This is a pretty good rule to follow in most of the handicaps across the week but in this particular race, the last 2 winners were wearing cheekpieces for the first time and a host of placed horses have benefitted from the fitting of headgear. Two Taffs, Sizing Tennessee and It’safreebee fit into this category this time round.


    Although we have to remember that this is a contest for novices, I’m sure most of us would be looking to a horse that has had a win over fences prior to arriving at the Festival. However, maiden chasers have an above average record in the main with 3 of the 12 winners from only 19 runners in that time frame; a boost to the chances of Two Taffs and Sizing Tennessee.


    With the characteristically steep uphill finish at Prestbury Park, it comes as no surprise that proven stayers have been the way to go here. 10 of the 12 winners had already run over at least the race distance over fences prior to lining up in this race. Double W’s and Bun Doran have a bit to find in this department.


    Shortlist:


    Two Taffs


    It’safreebee


    Sizing Tennessee


    Gold Present


    Dan Skelton’s pair It’safreebee and Two Taffs both perform well on the trends with the only knock on the latter being that Skelton has started to take front rank among trainers in Britain (which I’m sure he wouldn’t be too concerned with himself!). Davy Russell’s mount enters this contest as a maiden from the minimum number of start required to get a run here and has his chances boosted by not one but two pieces of first-time headgear as the tongue-tie and cheekpieces go on for the first time. He was steadily progressive over hurdles and while his chase form hasn’t set the world alight so far, he at least races off a 1lb lower mark in this sphere.


    His stablemate has been declared with the same headgear combination, with cheekpieces added to his usual tongue-tie for the very first time here. Value At Risk had been the market mover in the last week or so for Team Skelton but it seems It’safreebee has taken front rank and looks the stable first string with Harry in the plate. The seven-year-old ran a blinder when third behind Yorkhill and Yanowrth in last season’s Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle and could be primed for a big run once again back at Prestbury Park.


    Along with Two Taffs, Sizing Tennessee is the only other runner lining up without a chase win to his name. The nine-year-old has been to the Festival twice before when contesting the Champion Bumper for Willie Mullins back in 2013 while he represented Henry de Bromhead in last year’s County Hurdle. Fairly lightly-raced for his age, he has not been without his problems but has shaped as though he has scope over fences and can be forgiven a below-par display at Kempton on Boxing Day given he looked to be doing too much in front and eventually paid for his exertions late on. Down 2lb for that effort here, he has to enter the equation.


    Nicky Henderson won this contest 4 years ago with Rajdhani Express and has a pair of very live chances in this year’s renewal. Hammersly Lake was beaten only 4 lengths by Le Prezien in the Grade 2 Arkle Trial over 2m here in November and has since finished third in a pair of competitive minor events. A mark of 140 looks fair on his first foray into handicaps and he could be a player.


    His stablemate, Gold Present, was on 15lb worse terms with Frodon when they lined up in the Grade 2 Pendil Novices’ Chase last time and could well have turned over the odds-on favourite but for hanging left handed under pressure from two out. His temperament is a concern but able to line up off the same mark of 137 having been beaten only 2 lengths in a Grade 2, he seems to have been afforded a big chance by the assessor.


    With this race tending to favour the so-called, for want of a better phrase, ‘lesser’ yards, those from an unfashionable background still enter the equation here. Keith Dalgleish has already earned a reputation on the level and has started to make his mark in the National Hunt sphere this season. He saddles Mixboy here who goes in search of the four-timer over fences having scored at Cartmel and Sedgefield over the summer and at Musselburgh back in January.


    He would be another winner to get his handler up-and-running at the Festival, as would Captain Redbeard for Stuart Coltherd. Ridden by his son Sam, Coltherd’s charge has gradually improved with each of his 6 runs over fences but does have an 8lb rise for his short head victory at Haydock last time out to overcome.

    2 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (13th March 2017),  Robbo (14th March 2017)  


Similar Threads

  1. Day Four of The Cheltenham Festival 17/3/2017
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 16th March 2017, 07:22 PM
  2. Day Three of The Cheltenham Festival 16/3/2017
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 16th March 2017, 11:35 AM
  3. Day Two of The Cheltenham Festival 15/3/2017
    By ganjaman2 in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 14th March 2017, 07:37 PM
  4. Cheltenham Festival day 1
    By taff in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 6
    Last Post: 11th March 2008, 07:02 PM
  5. Cheltenham Festival
    By whatnow in forum Gamblers Anonymous
    Replies: 5
    Last Post: 16th March 2005, 07:33 PM

Social Networking Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •