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    Default Day Two of The Cheltenham Festival 15/3/2017

    Cheltenham 1:30 – Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)





    The Neptune has often been the punters’ friend over the years and the fact that 11 of the last 12 winners came from the first four in the betting could be very informative. The market is currently headed by Neon Wolf, with Bacardys, Messire Des Obeaux and Willoughby Court completing the top four.


    The Irish have had a stranglehold on this race for the last three years and have won 7 of the last 11 renewals. Willie Mullins has led the charge for the Irish with 4 winners in the last 9 years (along with 5 placed horses) and his assault for a fifth winner is led by Bacardys and Bon Papa this year.


    There are numerous Neptune trials throughout the season in Britain but the sole Grade 1 at around the same sort of trip, the Challow Novices’ Hurdle run at Newbury, has had very little bearing. It should theoretically be the main trial but 15 winners have tried and failed to land the double, so perhaps this season’s winner Messire Des Obeaux should be treated with a bit of caution.


    Away from the Challow though, top-level form is a definite plus with 12 of the last 19 winners winning a Graded hurdle (with 5 others runner-up) whilst Grade 1 hurdle winners over 2m-2m2f are 6/19 since 1997. Seven of the field this year have recorded a top two finish in a Graded hurdle, including the current first four in the betting.
    The extended 2m5f with the stiff finish up the Cheltenham hill is a stern test of stamina so it should come as little surprise that former pointers have enjoyed success here. 5 of the last 7 winners started their careers in an Irish point-to-point which boosts the chances of five of the runners, including Neon Wolf and Bacardys.


    Although they have been in the minority for the last thirty years, horses aged seven-years-old and upwards have been easily opposable here with a 0/51 record since 1988. Only Livelovelaugh falls into that category this year.


    The official ratings can often be overlooked in these type of races but it is worthwhile knowing that half of the last 8 winners were top on BHA ratings. On paper, this should be obvious given only four-year-olds and fillies and mares receive an allowance but we all know races don’t take place on paper! Neon Wolf is top rated this time round and could well improve on that already eye-catching record.


    Shortlist:


    Bacardys


    Neon Wolf


    Shattered Love

    Bacardys will bid to make it a third win in four years for Willie Mullins and continue the Irish dominance of this race. He bids to follow up his win in the Grade 1 Deloitte Novice Hurdle where he stayed on strongly for success in the 2 mile and 2 furlongs race at Leopardstown. The step up in trip promises to suit the six-year-old as he won an Irish point-to-point over 3 miles earlier in his career. He is Ruby Walsh’s pick of the Mullins’ horse to ride in the race and is fancied to go well.


    Favourite for the race is Neon Wolf who looks to be the main British challenger for the race. Trainer Harry Fry has always held the horse in high regard and the six-year-old was very impressive when landing a Grade 2 at Haydock by nine lengths last time out. He put up a fine jumping display over the 2 mile trip and the extra distance here is expected to help. Like Bacardys, he also won an Irish point-to-point over 3 miles at the start of his career and it promises to be an exciting battle between the pair at Cheltenham.


    A danger to the top two in the betting could come from another Irish raider in Shattered Love. The Gordon Elliott-trained six-year-old ran out a thirteen length winner of a Fairyhouse Grade 3 when last seen (although she only held a narrow advantage when her closest rival fell at the last). Again, the extra distance of the Neptune looks like it could bring about further improvement and she has a chance of making the frame on Wednesday.




    Cheltenham 2:10 – RSA Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)




    This Novices’ stayers’ chase is not one for horses that have spent a full two seasons over hurdles, we have to go back to Young Hustler in 1993 for the last winner of this that has. Whisper and Alpha Des Obeaux fall foul of this particular stat in this year’s field.


    Having said that, experience is still important in this race, but over fences. 10 of the last 15 winners had run four or more times over the larger obstacles while there has been just the sole winner since 1998 to have had less than 3 starts over fences; all this year’s runners have done that, so experience shouldn’t be too much of an issue.
    Only Don Poli has won this in the last 50 years having not run in the same calendar year so we certainly need to focus on those runners with a fairly recent run under their belts. Only Alpha Des Obeaux and Marinero in this year’s line-up haven’t been seen on a racecourse in 2017.


    Usually an attritional affair, this race doesn’t usually sit well with the flashy types and only Denman and Don Poli have won the race having been unbeaten over fences since 1988. All this year’s entries have been beaten over fences this season, so there aren’t any looking to preserve a 100% record.


    However, top-level form has been a good indicator recently and 3 of the last 8 winners of this had already won a Grade 1 over fences, while 3 of the other 5 winners were placed in Grade 1’s. Royal Vacation and Alpha Des Obeaux are the only Grade 1 victor’s/placed horses in the field here, but the former’s win came after Might Bite fell when clear in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase.


    The previous year’s Albert Bartlett has often been a good guide to this and has featured 5 of the last 7 winners of the RSA, a record that may have been even better had Boston Bob stood up at the last in 2013. Aurillac may look to improve this stat even further this year as the only runner who ran in that race last year.


    4 of the last 8 winners also ran in the Flogas Novices’ Chase at Leopardstown, so pay close attention to Bellshill, who fell in that race.


    In contrast, the winner of the race that could be seen as the best trial for the RSA in Britain, the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase, has a wretched record when it comes to this particular contest. All 19 winners of the Kempton Grade 1 to line up here have been beaten which doesn’t make pretty reading for Royal Vacation and could be music to the ears of Might Bite supporters who would almost certainly have won but for that horror show at the final fence.


    It seems common place now for Willie Mullins to have a good record in the Festival Grade 1s and the RSA follows suit. Mullins has saddled 4 winners from 20 runners in this race which makes Bellshill of particular interest.



    Shortlist:


    Bellshill


    Aurillac


    Might Bite



    Coming out on top of the trends analysis, Bellshill bids to give Willie Mullins his third win in this race in nine years. Although coming into the race on the back of a fall (when already beaten) isn’t ideal, but he was previously unbeaten over the larger obstacles and may well improve for this better ground. There are some worries for this horse to overcome, including no-shows in two previous festival appearances, but as Mullins’ only runner in the race, he has to be respected.


    Aurillac is a very interesting addition to the shortlist, clear of all bar Bellshill on the trends front. At 66/1 and the rank outsider of the field, Rebecca Curtis’ seven-year-old clearly has it all to do, but good ground and three miles on a stiff track such as this could bring out the best in him. He’s clearly no easy ride and will be off the bridle very early, but he’s a horse that stays very well indeed and could be there to pick up the pieces at a huge price if the big boys falter.


    As the favourite, Might Bite is entitled to be on this shortlist and was in the process of a truly special performance in the Kauto Star before a questionable decision by his pilot to fire him into the final fence, despite being 20+ lengths clear, cost him the race. His other two chase successes have been bloodless affairs, but his chase debut win, when brushing aside Premier Bond at Doncaster, has been franked somewhat by that rival improving well recently. This will be a huge test of his jumping and temperament, but if he handles Cheltenham and all its nuances, he’s surely the most talented horse in what looks an average renewal of the RSA.




    Cheltenham 2:50 – Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)




    When faced with a big-field handicap such as the Coral Cup, it can be tempting to try and find a horse who has been under the radar on recent starts. However, it may interest you to know that 9 of the last 14 winners had won their most recent start, which suggests it is horses arriving in top form, such as Tombstone, Modus and Automated that we should be focusing on.


    That is backed up by the fact that 6 of the last 8 winners came from the top 8 in the weights, so we shouldn’t spend too much time looking for one that has managed to sneak in at the bottom of the handicap. Modus, Old Guard, The Romford Pele, Mister Miyagi, Tombstone, Supasundae, Taquin Du Seuil and Monksland top the field this time round.


    For a race as competitive as this, it may also surprise you to learn that the market has proved an excellent guide, with 10 of the last 11 winners coming from the first 7 in the market. In fact, other than Medinas who won at 33/1 in 2013, no winner in the last decade has been sent off any bigger than 16/1. Tombstone, Peregrine Run, Modus, Automated, Tin Soldier and Supasundae head the bookies’ boards at the time of writing.


    It appears that the fitting of headgear does not have the same effect in the Coral Cup as some of the other races throughout the week. You have to go back to Sky’s The Limit who wore a visor to victory in 2006 to find the last winner with headgear fitted and the last 60 horses to have worn headgear in the race have all been beaten; a worrying statistic for the likes of Modus, Monksland and Kalondra.


    With the French National Hunt scene burgeoning of late, it seems to follow suit that French-breds are on a steep upward curve in a few Festival races. The Coral Cup certainly follows suit in that respect with 8 of the last 15 winners being foaled on the other side of the Channel. The Willie Mullins-trained trio of Tin Soldier, Bravissimo and Allblak Des Places lead the charge for French-breds in this year’s line-up, alongside Taquin De Seuil.


    It seems surprising given the strong pace that the Coral Cup is usually run at that stayers haven’t found this race to their liking. Perhaps they find things all happening a bit too quickly, or it may just be difficult to stay on from out the back in such a hotly-contested big-field, whatever the reason, the fact remains that 9 of the last 15 winners had never run over as far as the 2m5f trip here. Automated, Tin Soldier and Bravissimo are just three that fall foul of this particular stat.


    Experience, or inexperience, is normally a key factor with Festival handicaps and we have a bit of a mixture of both to take into account when it comes to the Coral Cup. Second-season hurdlers have a very good record with 11 winners this century, music to the ears for the likes of Tombstone, Mister Miyagi and Supasundae, and the fact that 3 winners this century have scored on their handicap debuts give those three horses an even stronger case to argue.


    When also taking into account that only 3 winners this century had ran more than 9 times over hurdles, not good news for Automated and Peregrine Run, it makes it incredibly difficult for a runner to fit on all three of these categories. Once again it is the trio of Tombstone, Mister Miyagi and Supasundae fits the bill this year which must give his chances a massive boost.


    Freshness has proven to be a distinct advantage here in recent times with none of the last 12 winners having raced within the last month. Taking this a step further, 4 of those had been off since before Christmas. Tombstone, Supasundae and Tin Soldier have all been in action in recent weeks so they’re not just names on the positive sides of the trends sheet.


    Proven quality performers have collectively struggled in the Coral Cup over the years with the last winner to have won a Graded race being back in 2004. Not a good sign for the likes of Tombstone, Peregrine Run and Tin Soldier.


    Gordon Elliott has been the only trainer to double up in the last 10 years, a very solid record given he has had only 6 runners in the race. Elliott’s challenge this year is led by Tombstone while Automated and Carrig Cathal complete the line-up.


    Shortlist:


    Tombstone


    Mister Miyagi


    Supasundae


    Bravissimo



    Already very well backed and the head of Gordon Elliott’s charge at the race he won last year with Diamond King, Tombstone looks very well handicapped off a mark of 149 given he disposed of Jezki last time out. It was over two miles on heavy ground just 25 days ago, but his fourth in the Supreme last year shows he handles the track and ground well, so must go well for a shrewd yard who had plenty of options for this horse – they even considered supplementing him for the Champion Hurdle.


    Dan Skelton’s Mister Miyagi looks the perfect type for this race, loves good ground, has already won over C&D and has put in plenty of encouraging efforts this season. He has a few lengths to find with Tombstone on last year’s Supreme form, but if Tombstone is 5/1, 20/1 looks a very big price for this eight-year-old.


    Going back to the Irish challenge, Jessica Harrington’s Supasundae almost finished dead heated with Mister Miyagi in the Supreme last year and must also have a superb chance as a classy first-time handicapper who has already trounced the likes of Monksland in a soft ground race at Punchestown over two and a half miles, giving him 4lb. He’ll love this sounder surface and this two and a half mile trip will be ideal for the son of Galileo. A mark of 148 looks workable on the form of his two defeats by the 158-rated Sutton Place and he looks like he’s primed to run a huge race.


    With five horses in the race, Willie Mullins has a real chance of getting in the money and even though Ruby Walsh rides Tim Soldier, an impressive winner just two weeks ago, my eye is drawn to the fourth-placed trends pick, Bravissimo. Like his more fancied stablemate, he has something to prove on ground better than soft, but I think a mark of 136 could be very lenient for a horse that was 7th in the Deloitte behind Bacardys and he might be worth a saver each-way.





    Cheltenham 3:30 – Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1)





    Unsurprisingly, the equivalent race for novices, the Arkle, has proven a great guide for the Champion Chase twelve months later. 6 of the last 10 winners had contested the previous season’s Arkle and of the 8 winners of that particular contest to line up here since 2003, 5 have won with the other 3 runners-up. A big boost for the red-hot jolly Douvan.


    Away from the Festival, the Tingle Creek has proven to be a good guide when it comes to the big one in March which plays into the hands of God’s Own (3rd) and Sir Valentino (5th) here.


    Favourites haven’t had the greatest record in recent times with only 3 of the last 11 renewals being won by the market leader. However, it still pays to keep the focus on the head of affairs on the bookies’ board with 11 of the last 16 winners coming from the top two in the betting. Music to the ears of Douvan and Fox Norton.


    With that in mind, it shouldn’t come as a shock that outsiders generally have their work cut out. Sizing Europe and Big Zeb struck at 10/1 in consecutive years but only 1 horse with a bigger SP than that has prevailed since 1993, meaning we can rule out all but the previously mentioned market leaders.


    8 of the last 11 winners won last time out so we need to be looking at a horse that arrives here in form. Only Douvan and Grade La Victoire fit the bill here and must come into consideration.


    It should come as no surprise that in a Championship race of this calibre, top-level form comes to the fore and the Champion Chase has more often than not gone the way of a proven quality performer. 13 winners this century had already prevailed in a Grade 1 prior to lining up here; an extra tick in the box for Douvan, God’s Own, Sizing Granite and Special Tiara.


    As seems a trend in the National Hunt sphere as a whole, the French influence has had a massive impact in the last decade or so. French-bred animals have won 6 of the last ten renewals of the Champion Chase and their already stellar record looks set to continue with half of the field having Gallic roots, including Douvan and Fox Norton.


    With the race taking place over two miles, it makes sense that those more experienced horses have tended to have a pretty average record, with the general consensus being that older horses stay further in time. The fact that none of the last 11 winners had run in more than 16 chases backs this up pretty well. God’s Own, Special Tiara, Simply Ned and Sir Valentino fall foul of this particular statistic.


    Going hand-in-hand with the previous point, ten of the last 14 winners were second-season chasers. Only Douvan, Fox Norton and Garde La Victoire fall into this bracket in this year’s line-up.


    Shortlist:


    Douvan


    Fox Norton


    Garde La Victoire




    Douvan looks to hold all the aces here and the trends go a fair way to confirming that position. The only knock against him was that he stayed at home while stablemate Un de Sceaux travelled across the Irish Sea to land the Tingle Creek. As last year’s Arkle winner, he ticks the second season chaser box and he looks set to improve the fantastic record of those at the head of the market.


    His nearest rival on the bookies’ boards, Fox Norton, emerges with credit from the trends and is the only other runner in the field currently at a single-figure price. He finished third behind Douvan at both the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals last year when in the care of Neil Mulholland but has looked a much better animal in his second season chasing now trained by Colin Tizzard. He demolished the re-opposing Simply Ned and Special Tiara, 2nd and 3rd respectively, in the Grade 2 Shloer Chase over course and distance at the Open Meeting back in November and looks a clear second best here despite being put in his place by Altior last time.


    I find it surprising in a Championship race of this calibre that only Douvan and Garde La Victoire have a ‘1’ immediately next to their name. The fact that Philip Hobbs’ runner is a last-time-out winner just propels ahead the remainder of the field onto our shortlist. The Whateley-owned campaigner was well fancied for last year’s JLT Novices’ Chase and was still travelling well when taking a tumble 4 out. His jumping has been the main issue but bar edging slightly left at Sandown last time, he was pretty good in the main and could well run into a place at a big price.







    Cheltenham 4:10 – Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase




    Always one of the Festival’s most unique spectacles, the Cross Country Chase was run as a conditions race for the first time last year, which certainly looks to favour the classier horses as they no longer have to give lumps of weight away. The 157-rated Any Currency was by far the highest-rated horse to win the race in its history and that trend could continue this year thanks to the conditions change. Bless The Wings, Cantlow and Sausalito Sunrise top the ratings this year.


    However, a good grasp of these fences and obstacles still seems to be an essential quality that the winner of this race will have. Any Currency, Josies Orders, Bless The Wings and Quantitativeeasing, the first 4 home in last year’s renewal, all had experience of ‘the banks’ whether they were at Punchestown or Cheltenham. Sausalito Sunrise and Kingswell Theatre are having their first cross country runs here.


    Tying in with course experience, the Cross Country has favoured the more battle-hardened campaigners as well with 8 of the 12 first past the post aged 10+. Factor in that half of those were 12+ and we really shouldn’t be put off by those contenders at the veteran stage of their careers. This includes five of this year’s line-up, and twelve-year-old Cantlow is favourite for the race.


    Experience of the course is important for jockeys too and Adrian Heskin was the only winner to be having his first ride over the complicated course on A New Story in 2010. With Nina Carberry currently on the sidelines, Davy Russell and Richard Johnson are the only active jockeys with multiple wins in the race to their name so their mounts, Bless The Wings and Sausalito Sunrise, are worthy of extra respect.


    Certain big-name jockeys, Ruby Walsh the headline act amongst them, tend to boycott this race but the major trainers usually have a hand to play. However, powerhouses Paul Nicholls and Willie Mullins have a pretty poor record with no wins from 16 and 11 runners respectively. Alelchi Inois represents Mullins this year.


    Enda Bolger has dominated this event in the past, with 3 winners in the past 10 years (4 if you count Josies Orders who was awarded the race after Any Currency was disqualified last year) so his Cantlow, Auvergnat, Quantitativeeasing and Colour Squadron could be huge players this year.


    Bolger hasn’t had the first past the post since Garde Champetre in 2009 but Irish trainers in general have been the ones to follow here, with 9 of the 12 renewals going the way of the Irish. Only Balthazar King (and Any Currency if we’re just talking first-past-the-post) has broken that domination of late when winning twice for Philip Hobbs and Sausalito Sunrise represents the Devon handler this time round.


    With this now being run as a conditions race, the betting can be expected to be a good guide but even when the contest was a handicap, those at the head of the market were certainly the way to go. 8 of the 12 winners, 9 if including Josies Orders, have come from the front 3 in the market and 10 of the last 12 first past the post in cross country conditions events were in the top 2. Cantlow, Cause Of Causes and Auvergnat head the bookies’ boards at the time of writing.



    Shortlist:


    Cantlow


    Bless The Wings


    Auvergnat




    The Irish dominate the betting for the race with the top four in the market all from across the Irish Sea, with Enda Bolger training three of them. Cantlow is his main fancy in the race having showed improved form over ‘the banks’, including winning over the course and distance in December and then runner-up the following month. That experience could make him difficult to beat here for the leading Cross Country trainer.


    Bolger also saddles Auvergnat, who was third to Cantlow Punchestown in November. He made the trip over to Cheltenham in December but then unseated his rider when travelling well. However, the seven-year-old bounced back with a victory in in the 3 mile Cross Country Chase at Punchestown last month. That experience of the different obstacles could help him to get involved on Wednesday.


    Bless The Wings is another Irish challenger, trained by the in-form Gordon Elliott. His form also ties in with Cantlow as he was second to that rival in the Cheltenham race in December. The twelve-year-old has raced in two of the top Irish handicaps since, including the Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park last time out. He was second in this race last year and, with jockey Davy Russell booked to ride, will be hoping to go one better this time around.





    Cheltenham 4:50 – Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)





    This is one of the few races at the Festival in which it seems to steer clear of Willie Mullins’ runners. None of the 12 that he has saddled have finished in the first 5, which is surprising given the strength of his team and it is interesting to see that he hasn’t even declared one in the race this year. Paul Nicholls on the other hand has a good record in the race with 3 winners and a number of placed horses from just 17 runners including the first 2 home in the last 2 renewals. His charges this year, Dolos and Dreamcatching warrant extra respect.


    This race often goes the way of an unexposed type and it is interesting to note that 8 of the 12 winners had the minimum three runs over hurdles to their name, music to the ears of the likes of Dreamcatching, Domperignon Du Lys, Prospectus and Poker Play. When you combine that with the fact that the last 6 winners have come from the bottom half of the handicap, you start to build a picture about what type of horse we are looking for.


    Given that the minimum number of runs has proved beneficial, it should come as no surprise that those making their handicap debuts have had a good record. Only 2 of the 12 winners had run in a handicap hurdle prior to lining up here, which doesn’t bode well for Nietzche, Dino Velvet and Dodgybingo.


    With inexperienced runners coming to the fore, the fact that none of the 12 winners so far had previously run at Cheltenham does actually make sense. However, it is usually the case that familiarity with the Cheltenham idiosyncrasies is a plus so it is worth bearing in mind that a previous course run isn’t a huge negative when it comes to the Fred Winter.


    It does come as a surprise though that half of the 12 winners had raced against their elders over hurdles prior to lining up here. Few juveniles tend to take their place in novice/maiden events throughout the season so this is a stat well worth keeping on the right side of. Leading fancies Dreamcatching, Dolos and Project Bluebook have this in their favour.


    The Fred Winter has been a race in which horses at big prices have done well. Diego du Charmil was well-backed to be sent off 13/2 last year but prior to that the starting prices of the last 4 winners were 25/1, 33/1, 25/1 and 40/1 so don’t be afraid of taking a punt on one at a big price. Half of the 12 winners have been sent off between 20/1 and 40/1 so this may be the bracket to focus on here.


    With outsiders having such a stellar record, the fact that 6 of the 12 winners had won last time out would seem to be a bit of an anomaly. The strength of novice/maiden hurdles, and in particular juvenile hurdles, can often come into question meaning that a victory in what is perceived to be a lesser race, is overlooked by both the handicapper and the bookies. A ‘1’ next to a horse’s name certainly seems a bonus though, giving the likes of Dreamcatching, Domperignon Du Lys and Prospectus a big boost.


    Also, 9 of the 12 winners had run over hurdles in the previous 25 days. For horses with such little experience, it is clearly beneficial to have a recent run under their belt, so be wary of any runner returning from a fair absence such as Dodgybingo or Linger.


    With this in mind, it would seem logical that runners carrying a penalty would be rife given the weights are published a fortnight before the race. However, only 5 runners have line up in the Fred Winter with a penalty on their backs, with 2 winning the race. There aren’t any penalised runners in this year’s field though.


    In an ever-increasing statistic over the majority of the Festival, the French influence is certainly something to take note of. No winner that started its career under National Hunt rules did so in Britain or Ireland so we need to be focussing on those who started out over obstacles in France, or began life on the level. Unfortunately, all but Diable De Sivola fall into this category so that’s not much help!


    Another growing trend across a number of Festival races is the fact that the application of headgear is no longer a negative. Runners in headgear are 4/68 in the Fred Winter and it may just be the case that the younger horses benefit from the help of cheekpieces/blinkers/visor etc. keeping their focus on the job in hand. Icario, Fadas and Nietzche are among the runners with headgear applied this time round.



    Shortlist:


    Dreamcatching


    Icario


    Fadas


    Percy Street



    Paul Nicholls’ record in this race is excellent and it’s no surprise to see Dreamcatching sitting atop the trends table after an impressive Wincanton success on his second run in Britain. A National Hunt-bred type from France, he represents the profile that Nicholls has done so well with in the past and a mark of 131 may not even be close to what his true ability is. Stan Sheppard takes another valuable 5lb off this horse’s back and it will be a surprise if he’s not there or thereabouts, along with his stablemate Dolos.

    Gordon Elliott won this in 2013 with Flaxen Flare and he’s back this time around with Icario and Dakota Moirette. It’s the first named that fares especially well on the trends and he is an interesting contender having finished second on his last four starts, behind the likes of Outspoken and Surf Instructor. Icario looks as if he’ll appreciate the drying ground and the stiff finish that Cheltenham’s hill provides and can outrun his odds of 33/1.


    Fadas is a fascinating entry for Dan Skelton, third to Dreamcatching on his British debut and sure to come on for that effort. Although he may have a bit to find with the selection, the switch to good ground and a stiifer track could have untold benefits and he’s another one to keep an eye on at bigger prices.


    Completing the shortlist is Nicky Henderson’s Percy Street who has just about snuck in at the bottom of the weights and could actually be well handicapped off a mark of 124. Sixth in the Adonis when last seen, he wasn’t far off the likes of Flying Tiger and Fidux, and the better ground and stiffer track will definitely suit him, so again, at a fairly large price, he could be an intriguing contender given a more conservative, waiting ride for a horse that clearly stays well.





    Cheltenham 5:30 – Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Grade 1)





    Considering the Irish bumper scene is thought of as much stronger than its British counterpart, the home challenge has held its own, winning 4 of the last 7 renewals, and each of the last 2. However, the big boys have decidedly patchy records here and, in general, the likes of Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson aren’t renowned for training bumper horses, so be wary of Henderson’s runner Claimantakinforgan here.


    Willie Mullins is a master when it comes to bumpers though and he has been the main trainer to follow here with 8 of the 24 winners to his name. Carter McKay heads the Mullins’ charge this year but it is not always his most fancied runner that has come out on top so don’t rule out Next Destination either. His last three winners returned at odds of 12/1, 16/1 and 25/1 and though he didn’t win last year, the second (Battleford 25/1), third (Bacardys 16/1) and fourth (Castello Sforza 11/1) all emanated from Closutton and finished ahead of their more fancied stablemate, the 7/2 favourite Augusta Kate. In particular, the mount of his son Patrick has tended to perform better than expected with 2 winners from 9 rides, a big plus for Carter McKay this year.


    Irish form still comes to the fore though no matter which country the winner is trained in as Moon Racer and Cheltenian both started their careers in Ireland. 14 of the last 16 winners have made their racecourse debuts across the Irish Sea so pay particular attention to Copernicus, Perfect Harmony and Cause Toujours who started their careers in Ireland before being acquired by British trainers.


    A ‘1’ next to the name is imperative when it comes to the Champion bumper with only 2 of the 24 winners having been beaten on their latest start. Western Ryder and West Coast Time are a couple of the more fancied runners that fall outside of this category this time round.


    An unblemished record though is not necessarily a bad thing as 10 of the last 14 winners had tasted defeat at least once in either points or bumpers. The only unbeaten runners in this year’s field are Next Destination and Irish Roe who may have something to worry about.


    Prior experience, whether it be winning or not, has counted for a lot here and it comes as a bit of a surprise that 4 of the last 5 winners were in fact second season horses. Given that very few animals spend more than a single season campaigning in bumpers, this is very much a statistic to take note of. And The New, Better Getalong, Fisherman Frank and Imperial Eloquence come into this year’s renewal in their second season so are certainly worth a second look.


    With the experience factor clearly a big influence, it makes sense that those aged in the youngest bracket, four-year-olds, have a pretty indifferent record. Although 4 have finished runner-up this century, Cue Card is the only juvenile to prevail from 50 attempts. Not a good sign for My Mate Mark, Dans Le Vent, Debuchet and Nelson’s Touch.


    Bumper form is notoriously difficult to assess and with the majority of the field here having had only a couple of runs, we rarely have the benefit of crossing form lines. It’s not only a difficult job for punters though, as with 5 of the last 7 renewals going the way of horses priced between 14/1-40/1 ( and with each having won on their most recent start), those in the trading offices seem to struggle to nail down a horse’s chances as well. This is certainly a race where there is value to be had so the likes of Carter McKay, Someday and Western Ryder at the head of the market could prove vulnerable.



    Shortlist:


    Perfect Harmony


    Better Getalong


    Carter McKay




    This year’s Champion Bumper looks wide open so we could well have another big-priced winner on our hands.


    From a trends perspective though, Carter McKay still performs well and has quite rightly earned his place on the shortlist. The six-year-old was purchased by Pearl Bloodstock for £160,000 having got off the mark at the second time of asking in Irish points last April. He kept on well to deny the re-opposing Bakmaj on his rules debut at Leopardstown’s Christmas meeting and confirmed his position at the head of the market when accounting for another rival here, West Coast Time, when an easy winner at Naas last time. With Team Mullins’ stellar record in this particular contest, he has to enter the equation.


    Cases can be made for a whole host of others with most of the field fairly closely matched but a pair of British runners make the shortlist and could well outrun their odds. Alan King’s Perfect Harmony looked as though he was going to score on his only run in an Irish point back in October but came to grief at the last. Current connections were still suitably impressed though as they acquired his services for £65,000 the following month. He made his rules debut in a traditionally hot Newbury bumper and stayed on well to deny the re-opposing My Mate Mark (who got off the mark himself next time) by half a length. This race was mooted straight after that win and it is well known that his handler thinks very highly of him. He looks a value each-way play.


    Completing the shortlist is Better Getalong who has struck on both of his runs this season having finished second to Westend Story on his debut at Huntingdon back in December 2015. His two wins read very well as he accounted for DBS Spring Sales Bumper winner Sam’s Adventure (who has also gone in again since) at Ayr before confirming his promise when out-battling the highly-regarded Some Reign of Rose Dobbin in a messily run affair at Kelso. Nicky Richards’ charge obviously has more on his plate here and has to prove he is equally effective on better ground but he showed qualities last time that could come in useful in this big field and could run a big race for the North.

    2 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (14th March 2017),  Robbo (15th March 2017)  


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