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    Default Day Three of The Cheltenham Festival 16/3/2017

    1.30 Cheltenham – JLT Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)



    Although there have only been six runnings of the JLT Novices’ Chase, patterns are already beginning to appear.


    Black Hercules’ victory last year made it 5 out of 6 for Irish-trained horses and that’s a fair achievement given the valuable Grade 1 Ryanair Novices’ Chase at Fairyhouse is just around the corner and there have only been 21 Irish-trained runners in the race’s history. The Irish challenge this year is headed by Yorkhill for Willie Mullins, who’s taken 3 of the 6 renewals of the race.


    4 of the 6 winners had already won a Graded chase, while 6 of the 9 Grade 1 chase winners have placed in the JLT, so class comes to the fore here. The only horses in this year’s line-up not to have won a chase at Graded level are Kilcrea Vale, Balko Des Flos and Baily Cloud.


    While top-level experience is certainly a plus, an affinity with the larger obstacles is essential as none of the 6 winners had ran in less than 3 chases, a worrying statistic for Yorkhill this year.


    4 of the 6 winners started in the first two in the market, which is a tad surprising given how hotly-contested the race has been since its inception. Last year’s 8-strong field was the smallest in its history so despite a decent number lining up, the bookies still tend to get it spot on. Yorkhill and Top Notch head the market at the time of writing.
    Interestingly, no horse that was top-rated on official figures has won the JLT and 4 of the winners of the race came from outside the top 3 in that category. Yorkhill lines up as officially the best horse in the race and will have to overcome this particular stat to figure.


    All of the winners ran between 32 and 54 days before the Festival so some recent match practice is certainly a positive. Not only match fit, but it seems that horses need to arrive here in top form with 4 of the 6 winners having won last-time-out. Of the other 2, Noble Prince was runner-up before winning the inaugural running while Black Hercules was primed to be in the mix when falling on his previous start last year. In this year’s line-up there are six last-time-out winners, with the exceptions being Balko Des Flos and Baily Cloud.


    Festival form usually comes to the fore in the Grade 1 races at Cheltenham and the JLT has proven no different in its short history. All of the 6 winners ran at the previous year’s Festival, so we need to pay special attention to the likes of Yorkhill, Top Notch and Politologue who already have experience of the hustle and bustle of Prestbury Park in March.

    Shortlist


    Yorkhill


    Top Notch


    Politologue



    Yorkhill was mooted as a possible super-sub in the Champion Hurdle for Willie Mullins after his win in the Neptune at the Cheltenham Festival last year. However, connections have decided to stick to chasing and he is the warm favourite for this race, However, this is despite not always convincing with his jumping in two starts over the bigger obstacles so far. The seven-year-old was successful in a Grade 3 Novice Chase at Leopardstown last time out, where he jumped slightly left. That shouldn’t be too much of a problem at Cheltenham though and he obviously has a big engine with the way that he travels smoothly through his races. If he puts up a decent round of jumping on Thursday, Yorkhill could provide Willie Mullins with his fourth win in the race, and the trainer’s third in a row.


    The main challenge to Yorkhill could come from the Nicky Henderson-trained Top Notch, who has had the benefit of more experience over fences. He has won four times from five chase starts, including the Grade 1 Scilly Isle Novices’ Chase at Sandown last time. That was an impressive performance as he travelled well before readily asserting up the Sandown hill to finish five lengths clear. The six-year-old also has previous experience of Cheltenham as he was fifth in the Champion Hurdle last year.


    The exuberant Politologue is viewed by champion trainer Paul Nicholls as one of his best chances of the week. This bold jumper was second in a Grade 2 Novices’ Chase at Haydock on his penultimate start, where he lost little in defeat giving 3lb to the Malcom Jefferson-trained Waiting Patiently. The six-year-old has since got back to winning ways, albeit when facing only one other rival in a Graduation Chase at Kempton. That run will build his confidence for Thursday and he goes to Cheltenham with a live chance in the race.




    2.10 Cheltenham – Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle Race (Listed Race)




    It is fair to say that this hasn’t been a race for favourite backers in recent years as aside from Fingal Bay 3 years ago, the market leaders have a pretty poor record. 10 of the last 16 winners have come from outside the front 5 in the market and only 2 of the last 10 winners have been sent off at single-figure SPs. Tobefair, Presenting Percy, Impulsive Star, For Good Measure and Jury Duty currently head the market so appear to be risky propositions.


    In terms of age, it seems that this has been a race in which the young horses have struggled historically. The only five-year-old to win was Josh Gifford’s Pragada in 1988 and horses aged 8 or older have triumphed in 7 of the last 11 renewals; not good news for the likes of Gayebury, Barney Dwan and Sutton Manor.


    However, we are not looking for a horse that has shown their full hand to the handicapper as 8 of the last 10 winners (including the last 4) had contested no more than 10 races over hurdles. Leading fancies Presenting Percy, Impulsive Star and Jury Duty fall into this particular category this time round.


    Winners of this race have also often had a spell over fences in recent years, in fact 6 of the last 12 horses to get their head in front had run over the larger obstacles. 11 of this year’s field have ran in a chase earlier in their careers including Mr Mix, Aubusson and Splash of Ginge.


    It seems that not only the larger regulation obstacles prove key when it comes to the Pertemps as 3 of the last 7 winners had contested Haydock’s “Fixed Brush” Handicap Hurdle back in November prior to lining up here. Given there is about 4 months separating the contests, it’s certainly something worthy of note. Those that ran in the Fixed Brush that take their chance here are Theo’s Charm and Caid du Berlais.


    Another important stat to be aware of is that horses bred in France have a poor record, having had 68 unsuccessful runners since the turn of the century. To back that up further, the last 7 winners began their careers in points or bumpers suggesting that those bred in Britain and Ireland hold all the aces. Caid du Berlais, Aubusson and Mr Mix will have to buck this trend if they are to get their heads in front.


    Paul Nicholls had a particularly poor record until landing a couple of places in recent years, but the fact remains that he is still 0/14 in this race, a stat very similar to that in the staying handicap over the same trip on the first day of the Festival. Approach his runners, Caid du Berlais, Mr Mix and El Bandit, with caution here.


    The quality of National Hunt racing in general is on the rise so it is little surprise to see that the last 6 winners were all rated 138 or higher (Call The Cops was rated 133 but ran with a 5lb penalty in 2015). Bookies, and punters alike, normally like to find one lurking at the bottom of the handicap, just sneaking in at the eleventh hour, but the Pertemps is a race in which quality comes to the fore, leaving the 137-rated bottom weight Clondaw Cian with a bit to find.


    Personally, I was a little surprised that last-time-out winners have fared so well here given a top-6 finish in a qualifier is enough to grant your place in the entries. However, those with a ‘1’ next to their name have won 7 renewals this century, including 3 of the last 10. A tick in the box for Gayebury, Presenting Percy and Impulsive Star amongst others.


    Lastly, we get back to the recurring theme of headgear. 4 winners this century have carried some sort of accompaniment to victory, which bodes well for Presenting Percy, Tobefair and Theo’s Charm this year.



    Shortlist


    Theo’s Charm


    Golden Doyen


    Isleofhopendreams


    Presenting Percy



    Nick Gifford’s Theo’s Charm performs particularly well on the trends ticking a number of the required boxes, in particular his aborted chasing career mid-way through this season and his solid runners-up effort in the “Fixed Brush” Handicap Hurdle catching the eye. The seven-year-old earned his place in the field courtesy of a third-place finish at Haydock last month and he looks a live outsider if handling the drying ground.


    Golden Doyen was a progressive chaser last year and in the summer but has looked a much better horse since switching back to the smaller obstacles on his last two starts. Philip Hobbs’ charge scored at Newton Abbot in August and having ran with credit to finish third on the level at Ascot in September, returned to hurdling at Cheltenham’s Showcase meeting to land a Qualifier by a short head from his re-opposing stablemate For Good Measure. He has been off the track since then but if revved up and ready to go, he could surprise a few people.


    The Irish had a pretty poor record prior to Mall Dini’s victory last year but he showed that those from the Emerald Isle can get involved and their leading chance from a stats perspective is Isleofhopendreams. The ten-year-old has been in the form of his life this season, winning a Beginners’ Chase at Cork before almost justifying strong market support to land the Qualifier at Leopardstown’s Christmas meeting, narrowly outpointed by the re-opposing Electric Concorde. He gained due reward in another Qualifier at Punchestown last month though and while he lines up here off a 19lb higher mark (8lb more than he would carry in his homeland), the dim view the British handicapper takes of Irish raiders may have worked in his favour to ensure his place in the line-up. The drying ground could be an issue for him but he has earned his place on the shortlist.


    Rounding off the shortlist is Presenting Percy, who represents the same owner/ trainer/jockey combination that prevailed with Mall Dini last year. Pat Kelly’s six-year-old has been the subject of serious support for a prolonged period now and though he earned his place in the field courtesy of 5th and 4th place finishes in Qualifiers (won by Electric Concorde and Isleofhopendreams), he needed his latest win at Fairyhouse to earn a high enough mark to confirm his place. That was a very eye-catching performance and a repeat of that here, even up 10lb, would have to put him in front rank.




    2.50 Cheltenham – Ryanair Chase (Grade 1)




    As with many of the races at the Festival, previous course experience is key and this really comes to the fore in the Ryanair. 8 of the last 9 winners had already tasted success at Prestbury Park and taking this a step further; 4 of the last 7 winners had previously won a race at the Festival. A feather in the cap for previous Festival winners Empire of Dirt, Un de Sceaux and Uxizandre.


    Familiarity with the Cheltenham idiosyncrasies can give a horse an edge but proven quality is still a must here. All but one of the 9 winners since the race achieved Grade 1 status had won a Grade 1 chase prior to arriving here. Only Un de Sceaux and Uxizandre fit the bill this year.


    With the stiff finish at Cheltenham, it should come as no surprise that those proven over three miles tend to have an edge in the Ryanair. The King George VI Chase has proven a fantastic guide in recent times with 7 of the last 9 winners having contested the big race at Kempton on Boxing Day. Josses Hill is the sole representative this time round.


    Considering the Ryanair has leant itself to proven stayers, it makes sense that those who have made it a stamina test from the off by setting a decent pace have been on top in recent times. 6 of the 9 winners since the race was elevated to Grade 1 status have made all or most of the running so pay special attention to the likes of Josses Hill and Uxizandre who like to be up with the pace.


    Jollies have only won a third of the last 9 Ryanairs but the head of the betting is still the place to be with 4 second favourites landing the prize during that time. Un de Sceaux and Empire of Dirt currently find themselves atop the bookies’ boards.


    Tying in with this, it comes as a bit of a surprise that only Uxizandre and Albertas Run (2010) were sent off at odds of bigger than 6/1 in the past 9 runnings. The field size has been in double figures for all but 2 of those so it is not as if a select line-up contributes to a shorter price. At the time of writing, only Un de Sceaux, Empire of Dirt and Uxizandre are currently trading at 6/1 or shorter.


    Each of the last 4 winners were second-season chasers and this looks like an emerging trend that is well worth taking note of. Only Sub Lieutenant and Vaniteux fall into that category this time round.


    In times past, the application of headgear has been looked down on by many aficionados but we are seeing more and more trainers use headgear as an aid nowadays rather than just blindly reaching for blinkers or cheekpieces as a last resort. I have no problem in a horse wearing headgear if it is to bring the best out of the animal and it seems a lot of handlers share that opinion. Taking it a step further, 2 of the 7 runners in first-time headgear have won this contest, meaning Empire of Dirt is certainly worth a second look.


    It follows suit that a race as well regarded as this should be contested by the best around as it provides a happy medium between the Champion Chase (2m) and Gold Cup (3m2f) for Championship calibre horses that find things happening too fast over the minimum trip or don’t quite get home over the extended 3m2f. Since the race was first run as a Grade 1 in 2008, only subsequent Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander has won with a rating below 161. A bad omen for Josses Hill, Aso, Alary and Vaniteux who find themselves below this bracket.


    Only 2 of the last 9 winners were successful on their latest start so don’t get put off by a horse without a ‘1’ next to its name. The last time out winners in this year’s field are Un de Sceaux and Vaniteux.



    Shortlist


    Empire of Dirt


    Un de Sceaux


    Uxizandre

    Slightly surprising that only 8 line up for this year’s Ryanair but it still looks a very intriguing contest. However, the bookies usually have a good handle in this race and it is the top 3 in the betting that makes the shortlist here.


    Un de Sceaux is a worthy favourite having won nicely in the rearranged Clarence House Chase back in January. The 2015 Arkle winner and last year’s Champion Chase runner-up has been re-routed here to avoid a clash with his superior stablemate Douvan and does have to prove that he has the staying power over fences (although he sluiced up over further in the Prix La Barks hurdle last May).


    The Clarence House form looks to have a major bearing here with the runner-up Uxizandre also taking his place in the line-up. He likely has a bit to find on Un de Secaux on their previous showing but he was returning from a near 2 year absence and will surely improve with that run under his belt. His running style is ideally suited to the Ryanair, as was shown when AP McCoy’s enterprising front-running ride to land the 2015 renewal aboard Alan King’s charge, and it looks likely that he will be there or thereabouts.
    Empire of Dirt completes the shortlist and while he was a good winner in the Plate last year, he has improved greatly since switched to Gordon Elliott and arguably produced a career-best when a close second to Sizing John in the Irish Gold Cup last time. He was an easy winner of the Troytown on his penultimate start, form that has been franked since with runner-up Abolitionist winning the Leinster National on Sunday. With Bryan Cooper opting to ride him over Sub Lieutenant, it seems apparent that he is the Gigginstown first string.


    Nicky Henderson’s pair look up against it here although Josses Hill does have the profile of a usual winner as a King George participant dropping back in trip here. Vaniteux was in the midst of running a big race when unseating 2 out in the Arkle last year but may just lack the required quality to land this particular contest.




    3.30 Cheltenham – Sun Bets Stayers’ Hurdle (Grade 1)




    Big Bucks’ four successive victories in this Championship race between 2009 and 2012 skews the trends somewhat, but there are still some solid pointers as to the profile of a Stayers’ Hurdle winner.


    No five-year-olds or horses aged 10 or over have won the race so we really must concentrate 6-9yos here. Even Bib Buck’s managed to cram all his four wins into this slot! The likes of Zarkandar and Clondaw Warrior fall outside of this particular bracket.


    All 34 horses in the last 12 renewals that had been beaten in the race before were beaten again. Iris’s Gift is the only horse this century to have won the race having been beaten twelve months earlier (and he was a novice when finishing second before turning the tables on Baracouda the following year). Those that ran twelve months ago once again taking their place in the line-up are Cole Harden and Zarkandar, and both have something to prove.


    Irish-trained horses have only won the race once since 1995 (Solwhit in 2013) despite filling the runners-up spot on 7 occasions, most recently with Annie Power in 2014 and Alpha des Obeaux in 2016. The Irish can’t be completely discounted but Nichols Canyon, Snow Falcon and Clondaw Warrior certainly look a risky proposition from a win perspective.


    With the headgear debate continuing to rage on, it is worth noting that no horse wearing headgear has ever won the Stayers’ Hurdle. In total, 57 runners have tried since 1992 and all have failed. Jezki, Clondaw Warrior and Cole Harden are amongst the runners lining up this year with headgear applied and it must be taken as a negative.
    There are plenty of negatives to rule horses out by, but if you’re more a ‘glass-half-full’ kind of person, the positives are there too – 8 of the 10 individual winners this century had won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 hurdle over shorter than 2m5f and winners this century were 18 of 22 in 3m Graded hurdles during the season. Eight of this year’s field have prevailed in a Grade 1 or 2 at up to 2m5f, including Jezki, Shaneshill and Agrapart.


    Favourite Unowhatimeanharry is unbeaten over hurdles so far this season and horses that have lined up here in a similar vein of form in recent years have been rather profitable with a record of 7/20. There are no other unbeaten hurdlers this campaign to take their place in the field.


    However, Harry Fry’s charge will have to overcome the worrying statistic that Albert Bartlett runners have in the race. The Stayers’ Hurdle seems the logical step for Albert Bartlett horses remaining over the sticks but none of the 14 to have lined up here twelve months later have prevailed (including 5 winners of the race).


    The betting is normally a solid guide when it comes to Championship calibre races and the Stayers’ Hurdle follows suit in that respect. The top 3 in the betting have a record of 13/48 this century so Unowhatimeanharry, Jezki and Shaneshill, who currently head the market, are afforded extra respect.



    Shortlist


    Shaneshill


    Jezki


    Unowhatimeanharry



    Topping the trends analysis is Willie Mullins’ Shaneshill, who has kept improving as he’s stepped up in trip over hurdles this season. Mullins decided to make the drop back over hurdles with this horse after he went so close in last year’s RSA Novices’ chase behind Blaklion, proving his stamina and liking for a sound surface at Cheltenham. He’s performed so well at this venue in the past – second in a Champion Bumper, second in a Supreme, second in an RSA – and this could well be his time to finally get his spot in the limelight. He looks a fantastic each-way bet against the favourite here.


    A mention must go to Agrapart, who actually sits atop the trends list alongside Shaneshill, but in an unusual move, I’m going to leave him out of this shortlist. His third behind Zarkandar in the Rendlesham in mid-February was his best effort by far on ground with good in the description, but he’s clearly a soft ground horse who won’t enjoy the drying ground here. He may stay on up the hill, but doesn’t look to have the pace, or class, of the leading fancies and should find this too hot.


    Instead, Jezki takes his place on the shortlist. The five-time Grade 1 winning hurdler is probably the classiest animal in the field and is still unexposed at this trip. Good ground and Cheltenham clearly sit well with him and although he’ll have to defy the ‘no headgear’ trend, he looks to have been prepared for this and surely runs a big race.
    It’s impossible to leave out the favourite though – Unowhatimeanharry has answered every question asked of him and goes into the race a worthy favourite. Yet there are still questions that many are asking, has he ever beaten a field of horses this classy? Will he handle the fast ground as well as the others? He’ll have a chance to answer them come Thursday afternoon and it would be no surprise if he did.





    4.10 Cheltenham – Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3)




    It may seem an obvious thing to say when discussing a competitive handicap but a low weight seems to be an advantage when it comes to this race. To quantify that, the last 8 winners have carried less than 11st to victory and the only horse in the last decade to defy that ceiling was 66/1 shot Mister McGoldrick in 2008; leaving leading fancies Diamond King and Village Vic something to find here.


    Sue Smith’s eleven-year-old was an exceptional winner in many ways but his price was in line with the recent history of the race as 15 of the last 16 winners were sent off at 12/1 or bigger. Diamond King and Starchitect are the only runners below this threshold at the time of writing.


    Given the undulating and unique nature of the Cheltenham course, it usually means that course form tends to hold up well. However, in this race it is worth noting that only one winner since 2000 had previously recorded a chase success at Cheltenham, only King’s Odyssey, Village Vic, Art Mauresque, Voix D’Eau and Thomas Crapper have course wins to their name in this year’s line-up, and only 2 of the last 6 horses to win the race had previously run at the Festival. Katachenko and All Together are amongst those making their Festival debuts here.


    Although course and Festival experience hasn’t proven a factor, this race has proven itself more suited to the seasoned chaser in recent times. 5 of the last 12 renewals have been won by third-season chasers so be wary of those only in their first or second season. The likes of Cocktails At Dawn, Katachenko and Tango De Juilley line up here with two full seasons over the larger obstacles under their belts.


    Given the previous point, it leads on to the fact that novices have tended to struggle in the main with their record of just 1 winner from 38 attempts since 2005 ringing alarm bells. Diamond King, Baron Alco and Starchitect are the three of the eight novices taking part this year and need approaching with a fair amount of trepidation.


    In terms of trainers to follow, Venetia Williams and David Pipe have 6 victories between them in the past decade including 3 of the past 5 renewals. Venetia is represented by Tango De Juilley and Cold March this year while Starchitect goes to post for Pipe.


    On a negative note, Empire of Dirt may have obliged for Gordon Elliott twelve months ago but prior to that there hadn’t been an Irish-trained winner since 1982. This suggests you need to err on the side of caution when it comes to runners from the Emerald Isle. These include just Diamond King and Road to Respect this time round.
    Considering the quality of field that the Plate usually attracts, it comes as a bit of a surprise that none of the last 8 had won a Graded race prior to lining up here. With that list including big names such as Paddy Power Gold Cup winner Great Endeavour, Aintree Bowl runner-up Ballynagour and Troytown victor and Irish Gold Cup second Empire of Dirt last year, it shows that those yet to hit the heights and grab the attention of the handicapper are the way to go. Thomas Crapper, Voix D’Eau and Diamond King are three of the five runners with a Graded success to their name in this year’s renewal.


    Different Festival races seem to suit varied tactics but the Plate certainly lends itself to those who like to be up with the pace. 8 of the last 10 winners were ridden handily, and it may just be the case that those at the head of affairs avoid a bit of the hustle and bustle going on in behind them and have a smoother time of things. Cocktails At Dawn, Village Vic and Baron Alco are amongst those likely to be prominently ridden here.



    Shortlist


    Cocktails At Dawn


    All Together


    Katachenko


    Tango De Juilley



    A shortlist of horses at huge prices here, beginning with Nicky Henderson’s Cocktails At Dawn, who fell at Kempton on his last run when leading. He’s been waiting for this better ground and fits the profile of an experienced chaser who likes to race at the head of affairs. On his best form, a mark of 145 is workable, but it’ll be a white-knuckle ride watching him go off at the front with his jumping issues. However, if he does put in a clear round, he could be a huge danger as he’ll stay on well up the hill.


    All Together is probably the least ‘fashionable’ name in the race. Trained by Johnny Farrelly, this horse last won at Leicester on heavy ground back in February 2016, but has run some decent races in defeat since. He won that race off a mark of 131, so 133 here shouldn’t be an issue and after sneaking in at the bottom of the weights, he has a chance to run a surprisingly good race in his first run in Graded class.


    Donald McCain would dearly love a festival winner and his eight-year-old, Katachenko, certainly doesn’t look as if he should be a 40/1 shot here. The winner of a Grade 3 Handicap Chase at Aintree last season, beating Dandridge, this horse thrives on good ground and after slipping back down the weights to that same mark (133) that he won off there; he has to have a real shout in this. His second at Catterick in soft ground in February would have been an ideal prep for this and he can outrun his big odds.
    Last season, Tango De Juilley came into this race from a year off and ran a belter to finish second. It’s the same scenario again this year and there’s no reason why he won’t do the same again off a mark just 1lb higher. He fits many of the key trends, is trained by Venetia Williams who has a superb record in this race, and if he’s fit and well after his break, he could run a cracker once again at a nice each-way price.




    4.50 Cheltenham – Trull House Stud Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2)



    Shortlist


    Let’s Dance


    Airlie Beach


    La Bague Au Roi



    This is just the second renewal of the race and trainer Willie Mullins looks to have a strong chance of making it back-to-back victories following Limini’s success last year.
    Let’s Dance is the clear favourite for the race, looking to be at the top of Mullins’ pecking order. She is also the choice of stable jockey Ruby Walsh. The five-year-old has now won her last four starts over hurdles and has progressed moving up the grades this season, starting off by landing a Listed race at Punchestown in November, before winning a Grade 3 and then Grade 2 both at Leopardstown. She has been particularly impressive on her last two runs, demolishing the Grade 3 field by seventeen lengths. She followed that up with a smooth success in the Grade 2 against the males at the end of January. The mare travelled easily through the race and only had to be pushed out by Ruby Walsh for a six lengths victory. In second was stablemate Kemboy, who performed respectively when fifth in the Neptune Novice’s Hurdle on Wednesday. Let’s Dance also has precious Cheltenham Festival form herself as she finished fourth in the Triumph Hurdle last year. She is definitely the mare to beat in this race on Thursday.


    Her main rival is likely to be stablemate Airlie Beach who has an impressive career record of seven wins from seven runs, including six over hurdles. This shows the regard in which Let’s Dance must be held for Ruby Walsh to ride her instead of this unbeaten mare. Airlie Beach has progressed from winning a Grade 3 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at Down Royal in November to landing Grade 1 at Fairyhouse in December. The top-level victory came in the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle and it was a comfortable success, as she moved well into contention although she was helped by closest rival Peace News falling two obstacles from home. She stayed on well to win by six and half lengths, beating another Grade 1 winning stablemate Saturnas. She has to be respected in this race and could provide a stern challenge to Let’s Dance.


    La Bague Au Roi for Warren Greatrex looks to be the main threat trained in Britain, having won six of her seven starts and is three from three over hurdles. The six-year-old has shown progressive form this season, working her way up to success in a Listed Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle race at Newbury last time. She has been sent off a strong favourite in all three of her starts over the obstacles and her trainer rates her very highly. The mare again made all the running at Newbury, galloping on strongly and jumping well as she ran out a ready winner. The runner-up that day was Dusky Legend, who had filled the same position in the inaugural running of this race last year. La Bague Au Roi could have the potential to be the biggest threat to the Mullins’ runners on Thursday.





    5.30 Cheltenham – Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Riders’ Handicap Steeple Chase




    Since this race became a 0-145 handicap race 6 years ago, all the winners have run off a mark of at least 137. The quality of Cheltenham Festival winners has certainly improved when it comes to the handicaps in recent times which suggests that you need a proven performer. With this in mind, Another Hero and Squouateur look to have a bit to find in this category.


    As with any amateur riders’ race, jockeyship is vital and it’s no shock that Jamie Codd’s name appears 4 times in the last 8 years as being the man riding the horse that was first past the post. Codd;’s mount this year, Squouateur, is of particular interest but the overriding stat is that backing jockeys that have ridden out their claim is a must. Only 1 of the 67 to have taken part in the race since 2009 (from over a third of the representation) have prevailed so you’re certainly wise to pin your hopes on those amateurs that are a cut above the rest.


    Supporting this theory is the fact that 65 horses have lined up in the Kim Muir having fallen or unseated earlier in the season since 2005 and every single one has come up short. With amateurs in the saddle, a sound jumper is essential so the likes of Sugar Baron and Kilfinichen Bay who have been prone to the odd jumping error already this campaign, look up against it.


    Irish-trained horses hadn’t won this race in 31 years before Spring Heeled was victorious in 2014 for Jim Culloty, but the pendulum has swung the other way as not only did the Irish fill 3 of the 4 places that year, they were second, third and fifth in 2015 and Cause of Causes made it 2 wins for the Irish in the last 3 runnings in 2016’s renewal. Despite small representation, Irish-trained horses are beginning to make serious progress in the race, which means the likes of Mall Dini, Squouateur, Balbir du Mathan and Venitien de Mai must be respected.


    However. Willie Mullins has had a surprisingly quiet time of things and along with Paul Nicholls, the pair have a pretty poor record in the Kim Muir. They have saddled 24 runners between them with none finishing in the top 3 so it may be prudent to approach their runners with a fair amount of caution here. Mullins isn’t represented this year but Nicholls saddles Unioniste.


    Odds-wise, 7 of the last 8 winners of the Kim Muir have come from the first 6 in the market, while 5 of the last 8 have been in the first 3 on the boards, so keeping an eye towards the top of the betting looks a good move. Doctor Harper, Squouateur, Mall Dini, Southfield Royale, Potters Legend and Another Hero head the betting at the time of writing.


    The headgear debate rages on again here but first-time applications have tended to do the trick. Those wearing headgear for the first-time are 2/17 since 2009, showing that an additional aid may just be what’s required to eke out a bit of improvement to get ahead of the handicapper. Doctor Harper, Pendra and Another Hero are wearing first-time headgear from this year’s line-up.


    Considering the Open Meeting at Cheltenham is a good 4 months earlier in the season, I think it’s worth taking note that 3 of the last 6 winners had contested the 3m3 1/2f BetVictor Handicap Chase there back in November prior to lining up here. The 3m2f of the Kim Muir is a staunch staying test so perhaps testing the waters early in the season gives connections a rough idea of a horse’s staying capabilities. Doctor Harper, Unioniste and Alvarado represent that particular contest this time round.


    Festival form is also key when it comes to the Kim Muir with horses that have won or been placed at Prestbury Park in March previously 5/34 since 2009. Only Pendra, Mall Dini and Hadrian’s Approach fit into that category this year and are certainly worthy of extra respect.


    With the increasing bearing that the French National Hunt scene has been having on British racing in recent times, it is a tad surprising that French-breds are winless here since 2005 having had 47 attempts (including 3 of which were favourites). This doesn’t make pleasant reading for the likes of Unioniste and Balbir du Mathan.


    In truth, few handicap chase debutants turn up here but 2 of the 9 to have taken their place at the tape were favourites and all have been beaten. With a big-field going off at a fair pace for a 3m2f chase, experience is vital. Premier Bond and Mall Dini are the only runners this year lining up for their handicap bows over the larger obstacles so need to be approached with a fair amount of caution.



    Shortlist


    Doctor Harper


    Pendra


    Mall Dini


    Squouateur



    Although he looks to have a bit to find on paper, Doctor Harper certainly fits the bill from a trends perspective. David Pipe’s charge was a hotpot for this race last year but unseated when looking well beaten. However, with that being his handicap debut, he would have been an unlikely winner and arrives here this time round with more experience under his belt. Now 9-years-old, he ran a blinder to be just touched off by Tour des Champs over course and distance on New Year’s Day but did disappoint slightly in the Grade 3 Classic Chase last time out. It may just have been a case that he didn’t quite stay the 3m5f trip there in testing conditions and has been eased 2lb by the handicapper ahead of this. Hot on the heels of her landmark win in the National Hunt Chase aboard Tiger Roll on Tuesday, Pipe has employed the services of Lisa O’Neill and with the application of first-time tongue-tie and cheekpieces applied, a big run is expected.


    With the improved record of the Irish in recent times, Mall Dini makes his way on to the shortlist despite making his handicap debut here. Katie Walsh’s mount was a bit of a surprise winner of the Pertemps Final at last year’s Festival and hasn’t really set the world alight in his 5 chase starts to date. However, the step up in trip here should be in his favour and the return to a sound surface is another factor that should bring about a bit of improvement.


    Pendra would seem to have a lot on his plate returning from a long layoff but he has proven that he goes well fresh in the past and, in truth, this is probably the best time to catch him. He was characteristically well backed for the Ultima Handicap Chase won by The Druids Nephew 2 years ago and ran with credit to finish fifth having finished third in the Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase twelve months earlier. He achieved a career-best when landing the Grade 3 Sodexo Gold Cup Handicap Chase at Ascot on his seasonal bow last campaign. The usual cheekpieces have been shelved but he has the aid of first-time blinkers instead and can surprise a few with the ever-reliable Derek O’Connor in the plate.


    Completing the shortlist is Squouateur, mainly as Jamie Codd is the man in the saddle. Gordon Elliott’s charge was backed off the boards in last year’s Martin Pipe but could only finish seventh. He had largely flattered to deceive over fences but put in a much improved showing when second at Naas last time out. It seems as though this race had been on his agenda for a while despite not running over a trip anywhere near this far over fences and with a few defectors this morning, his place in the line-up was assured. Elliott has been in stellar form so far this week and won last year’s contest with a similar type for the same connections in Cause of Causes, so he has to be of interest

    2 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (16th March 2017),  lombie (16th March 2017)  


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