AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS 2017

Thread: AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS 2017

  1. ganjaman2's Avatar

    ganjaman2 said:

    Default AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS 2017

    The highlight for many of the national hunt calendar, the Randox Health Grand National takes place at Aintree on Saturday 8th April. It’s always a fiercely competitive cavalry charge, you need plenty of luck to win it but there are plenty of key trends that can help to narrow the field down.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    6yo: 0-0-2
    7yo: 0-0-23
    8yo: 1-7-67
    9yo: 3-9-111
    10yo: 3-7-103
    11yo: 3-5-56
    12yo: 0-1-27
    13yo+: 0-1-9
    Every winner since WWII (1946) has been aged 8 to 12
    In the past 10 years all 38 of 40 places were filled by horses aged 8 to 11
    All 3 winners aged 8 in last 30 years have finished in first 5 in the Hennessy Gold Cup earlier that season.
    All 25 horses aged younger than 8 have been unplaced and only 2 of 36 horses aged 12+ have made the frame.

    Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
    horses carrying 11-7 or more: 1-1-32
    horses carrying 11-0 to 11-6: 4-8-91
    horses carrying 10-6 to 10-13: 4-16-188
    horses carrying 10-5 or less: 1-5-87
    horses carrying 11-0 or more have won 5 of 10 but represented just 30.9% of total runners.
    The last 4 horses that managed to make the places, carrying 11-7+, had won previous year’s race or finished in first 6 in Cheltenham Gold Cup on previous start.
    9 of 10 winners were initially allotted a weight of at least 10-5 on publication of National weights, exception Auroras Encore was allotted 9-13.
    8 of 10 winners carried no more than a stone higher than the bottom weight
    Top Weight: 900UF3FPUP0 (0-1-11)

    Official Ratings
    horses rated 149 or higher: 4-10-134
    horses rated 136 to 148: 6-20-256
    horses rated 127 to 135: 0-0-8
    In recent years the trend has swung towards higher rated runners, with 27 of 32 places since 2009 going to horses rated 143+.
    In last 8 years
    horses rated 143 or higher: 7-20-224
    horses rated 142 or lower: 1-4-94

    Breeding
    Irish bred: 6-24-243
    French bred: 3-2-84
    British bred: 1-4-63
    Other: 0-0-8
    Mon Mome became the first French bred since 1909 to win the Grand National when landing the race in 2009 and Neptune Collonges & Pineau De Re followed up the feat in 2012 & 2014.
    Irish bred horses have won 6 of the last 10 and filled in 30 of 40 places (75%) from approximately 61% of the runners.
    Old Vic has sired 26 National runners in 7 runnings in past 10 years, with a record of 2-5-26. He has sired one of the first 3 home in 6 of last 8 renewals, in which he’s been represented.

    Recent/Past Form
    7 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 on last completed start (1 exception 6th in Gold Cup, another 8th in Midlands National)
    7 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 146+ on last chase start
    10 of 10 winners had run since National weights were announced
    9 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 chase that season (Exception was Many Clouds, who had won 3)
    6 of 10 winners had won a listed or graded chase (2 exceptions had won a class 2 chase worth 30K+, 1 had been 2nd in a grade 1 and other had won the Ulster Grand National)
    8 of 10 winners had won a chase worth 29K+ (1 exception 2nd in a chase worth 111K)
    10 of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times since 1st September
    9 of 10 winners had won a chase over 3M+ (exception was maiden who had finished 2nd in previous Irish National)
    10 of 10 winners had run in at least 10 chases
    8 of 10 winners had won 3 to 5 chases (exceptions had won 0 & 11)
    8 of 10 winners had contested 1 to 9 handicap chases
    10 of 10 winners had won 0 to 3 handicap chases
    8 of 10 winners were 2nd, 3rd or 4th season chasers
    The last 4 second season chasers to have won this in past 10 years were Numbersixvalverde, who won the Thyestes and Irish Grand National as a novice, Pineau De Re, who won the Ulster Grand National as a novice, Many Clouds, who won Hennessy Gold up on 8th chase start and Rule The World, who was 2nd in Irish National as a novice)
    10 of 10 winners posted career high RPR in a chase over 3M+
    9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR at a left-handed track
    8 of 10 winners had previously been officially rated 148 or higher
    9 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 147+ in a chase over 3M+ at a left handed track
    8 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 134+ in a chase over 3M 4F+ (exceptions Ballabriggs & Many Clouds had not run over furthe than 3M 3F)
    5 of 10 winners had a run over hurdles in January, February or March

    Course form
    Record of placed finishers from previous GN: 09UU49F0374UU02U4 (0-5-17)
    Prev season's Becher Chase winner (Highland Lodge): 2B0 (0-1-3)
    Becher Chase winner (Vieux Lion Rouge): PPFUPF60 (0-0-8)
    Grand Sefton Chase winner (As De Mee):
    Only 3 of 10 winners had previously run over the National fences
    Only 1 of 10 winners had won over the National fences, last 2 winners that had won over the fences did so in the Becher Chase 2 seasons previous
    2 of 10 winners had run in the previous season's Grand National, finishing F0
    4 of 10 winners ran at the previous year's Aintree National meeting (2 in GN, 1 in Mildmay Novice Chase & 1 in John Smith's H'cap Chase), 2 exceptions finished in first 6 in Scottish National, 1 exception 2nd in previous season's Irish National, 1 won the Kim Muir and other exception did not race the previous season

    Other Nationals
    Previous season's Scottish National winner (Vicente): 5U (0-0-2)
    Highest placed finisher from previous Scottish National: U16U1U5 (2-0-7)
    Record of first 9 from previous Scottish National: PU415U811PU5 (3-1-12)
    Previous season's Irish National winner (Rogue Angel): FFFP05 (0-0-6)
    Two season's previous Irish National winner (Thunder And Roses): 6P75P9 (0-0-6)
    5 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in either the Irish, Welsh, Scottish or Aintree Grand Nationals
    3 of 10 winners had run in a Welsh National, finishing 1P2
    3 of 8 British-trained winners ran in previous year's Scottish National, finishing 962
    2 of last 3 Irish-trained winners ran in previous year's Irish National, finishing 12

    Other Races
    Previous season's Betfred TV H'cap Chase winner (Maggio): 19R (1-0-3)
    Previous season's Kim Muir winner (Cause Of Causes): 671FU0 (1-0-6)
    Grimthorpe Chase winner (Definitly Red): 2 (0-1-1)
    Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase winner (Cause Of Causes): 2F (0-1-2)
    Previous season's 4M NH Novice Chase winner (Minella Rocco): FB3 (0-1-3)
    Ivan Straker Memorial Chase winner (Saphir Du Rheu): F0 (0-0-2)
    Pat Taaffe H'cap Chase winner (Pleasant Company): 9U (0-0-2)
    Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase winner (Definitly Red): B0 (0-0-2)
    Classic Chase winner (One For Arthur): UB (0-0-2)
    Silver Cup H'cap Chase winner (Regal Encore): PP (0-0-2)
    Haydock Grand National Trial winner (Vieux Lion Rouge): PP (0-0-2)
    BetBright Best For Festival Betting H'cap Chase winner (Shantou Flyer): PF0 (0-0-3)
    Irish Daily Mirror Chase winner (Roi Des Francs): PUU (0-0-3)
    Sky Bet Chase winner (Ziga Boy): F60U (0-0-4)
    Bobbyjo Chase winner (Pleasant Company): PUU6P (0-0-5)
    2 of 8 British-trained winners ran in Hennessy Gold Cup, finishing P1
    2 of 8 British-trained winners ran in Haydock GN Trial, finishing 72
    2 of 8 British-trained winners ran in Kelso Premier Chase last time, finishing 25
    2 of 8 British-trained winners ran in Pertemps Network H'cap Hurdle last time, finishing P3
    2 of 8 British-trained winners (2 of last 3) ran in Summer Plate, finishing 00

    Racing Tactics
    6 of 10 winners raced prominently
    3 of 10 winners raced in mid-division
    1 of 10 winners were held up

    Trainers
    Trainers who have won the race in the past 10 years and have entries this year are:
    Jonjo O’Neill (1-2-21), Paul Nicholls (1-2-36), David Pipe (1-1-27), Richard Newland (1-0-3), Sue Smith (1-0-4), Mouse Morris (1-0-5), Gordon Elliot (1-0-10), Venetia Williams (1-0-10) and Donald McCain (1-0-16).
    Willie Mullins (0-1-26) won this in 2005 but has seen just 2 of his 27 runners since then make the frame.
    Kim Bailey (0-1-6) & Dermot McLoughlin (0-1-1) saddled The Last Samuri & Vics Canvas to be 2nd & 3rd respectively in 2016.
    Rebecca Curtis (0-1-4), Tom George (0-1-4) & Ted Walsh (0-1-6) have each saddled 1 placed finisher.
    Philip Hobbs (0-1-15), Nicky Henderson (0-0-11) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-0-23) have managed just 1 placed finisher in past 10 runnings from a combined 49 runners.
    2 of 10 winners were trained in Ireland (2-11-114) from approximately 28.6% of total runners. Bobbyjo, in 1999, became first Irish winner since 1975. Between 1999 & 2007, Irish-trained runners won 6 of 9 runnings. Since 2008, Irish-trained runners have a record of 1-10-103.

    Price
    In the past 10 years there have been some surprise winners, with three 33/1 winners in 2007, 2012 & 2016, a 100/1 winner in 2009, a 66/1 winner in 2013 and a 25/1 winner in 2015.
    Favourites (2-4-17) have gained 2 wins in past 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 0.50.

    Summary:

    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

    - Aged 9 to 11 (or 8yo that finished in first 5 in 2016 Hennessy Gold Cup)
    - Carrying no more than 14lbs higher than bottom weight
    - Officially rated 143 or higher (ideally rated 148+ at some point in career)
    - Respect horses sired by Old Vic
    - Finished in first 3 on last completed start
    - Posted an RPR of 146+ on last completed chase start
    - Won no more than one chase this season
    - Won a listed or graded chase worth 29K+
    - Won over 3M+
    - Run 3 to 6 times since September 2016 & run since 14th February 2017
    - Run in at least 10 chases (winning at least 3)
    - Posted career highest RPR in a chase over 3M+ (ideally at a left-handed track)
    - Has posted an RPR of 147+ in a chase over 3M 2F+
    - Has run over hurdles in 2017
    - Finished in first 3 in a previous Welsh or Irish National
    - Finished in first 9 in 2016 Scottish National
    - Finished in first 5 in a previous Hennessy Gold Cup
    - Finished in first 5 in Totepoolliveinfo.com Premier Chase or Pertemps Network H’cap Hurdle last time
     
  2. beerman's Avatar

    beerman said:

    Default Re: AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS 2017

    So who do I put my life savings on?