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  1. #1
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    Default EPSOM DERBY TRENDS 2017

    This year’s Investec Derby takes place at Epsom on Saturday 1st June. In the past 10 years the Dante and 2000 Guineas have proven the key trials for the race, with 7 of last 10 winners having finished in first three in one of those 2 races.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 renewals:

    Age

    Race for 3yos

    Breeding

    Irish bred: 6-8-59
    British bred: 4-9-51
    American bred: 0-3-15
    French bred: 0-0-6
    German bred: 0-0-4
    10 of 10 winners by a sire with a stamina index of 9.0F+
    10 of 10 winners sired by a group 1 winner
    10 of 10 winners were born before 7th April
    5 of 10 winners were out of a mare that won a class 1 race as a 3yo (4 of 5 others were out of an unraced mare, other was placed in a listed as a 3yo).
    Sons of Galileo: 095010974520273864310001400032 (3-6-30)

    Recent/Past Form

    9 of 10 winners had had 2 to 4 career starts
    10 of 10 winners had won at least 50% of their career starts
    10 of 10 winners had run 1 or 2 times that year
    10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on all starts that year
    7 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exceptions finished 2nd or 3rd in 2000 Guineas & other was 2nd in Dante)
    10 of 10 winners achieved an RPR of 112+ last time out
    9 of 10 winners ran in the last 35 days
    3 of 10 winners won a group 1 as a 2yo (7 others didn't run in a group 1 as a juvenile)
    9 of 10 winners had won a group race (exception was Workforce in 2010, who may have won Dante but for the bit going through his mouth)
    8 of 10 winners had won at the highest grade they'd run in
    5 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F (4 exceptions finished in first 3 in 2000 Guineas and other was an unlucky 2nd in Dante)
    9 of 9 winners that ran as 2yos had first run over 7F or 8F (6 of those 9 at a group 1 track)
    The last 10 winners of the Derby had collectively run 35 times before winning the race. In those 37 starts they had finished outside the first 3 only three time, all 3 occasions were on their racecourse debut as 2yo.

    2yo Form

    Beresford Stakes winner (Capri): 201400 (1-1-6)
    3 of 6 Irish-trained winners made debut in 7F Darley EBF Maiden at Curragh in July, finishing 141
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Racing Post Trophy, finishing 11

    3yo Form

    Dante Stakes winner (Permian): 12036214 (2-3-8)
    Chester Vase winner (Venice Beach): 545025072 (1-2-10)
    Ballysax Stakes winner (Rekindling): 24801 (1-1-5)
    Feilden Stakes winner (Khalidi): 71 (1-0-2)
    Cocked Hat Stakes winner (Khalidi): 337 (0-2-3)
    Lingfield Derby Trial winner (Best Solution): 3670268 (0-2-7)
    Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial winner (Douglas Macarthus): 032564800 (0-2-9)
    Dee Stakes winners (Cliffs Of Moher): 508030 (0-1-6)
    Newmarket Stakes winner (Permian): 00 (0-0-2)
    Investec Derby Trial winner (Cracksman): 890 (0-0-3)
    4 of 10 winners ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 2113
    3 of 3 British-trained winners ran in the Dante, finishing 121

    Trainers

    Irish-trained runners: 6-10-57
    British-trained runners: 3-10-71
    French-trained runners: 1-0-5
    German-trained: 0-0-2
    Aidan O’Brien (3-8-45) won back to back runnings in 2001 & 2002, but went 9 years without a win before landing the 3 renewals between 2012 & 2014 with Camelot, Ruler Of The World & Australia.
    John Gosden (1-2-7) saddled the 1-2 home in 2015 and also the 3rd in 2014.
    Saeed Bin Suroor (0-0-4) gained his only win in the race with Lammtarra in 1995 but has seen all 4 of his runners in past 10 years finish unplaced.
    Pour Moi in 2011 became first French-trained winner since 1976. In the past 50 years there have been 4 French-trained winners. 3 of the 4 ran in Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere as 2yos and all 4 had either won the Prix Gruffelhe or finished in first 4 in Poule d'Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas).

    Racing Tactics

    9 of 10 winners were held up in midfield or in rear
    The only exception was Sea The Stars (in 2009) who was keen and settled in 4th.

    Price

    10 of 10 winners came from first 4 in the betting & priced 7/1 or below.
    Favourites (4-4-11) have won 4 of last 10 but show a small level stakes profit of 1.1.3 since 2007.

    Summary:

    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

    - By a group 1 winning sire with a stamina index of 9.0F+
    - Sons of Galileo do well
    - Out of a mare that won a class 1 race as a 3yo (or was unraced)
    - Made debut over 7F or 8F at a group 1 track
    - Run 2 to 5 times before (winning at least half those starts)
    - Run once or twice in 2017
    - Never finished worse than 3rd (excluding racecourse debuts)
    - Had run in the past 35 days
    - Won last time out (or finished 2nd/3rd in 2000 Guineas/Dante)
    - Posted an RPR of 112+ last time (ideally posted RPR of 118+ last time)
    - Previously won a group race
    - Had won a group 1 (or having first try in a group 1)
    - Won over 7F+ as a 2yo
    - Won over 1M 2F as a 3yo (or finished in first 3 in 2000 Guineas)
    - Won the Dewhurst or Racing Post Trophy as a 2yo
    - Won or placed in Dante or 2000 Guineas as a 3yo
    - Hold up horses favoured
    - Trained by Aidan O’Brien or John Gosden
    - Priced 7/1 or below

    2 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (30th May 2017), evilsatan (30th May 2017) 


  2. #2
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    Default Re: EPSOM DERBY TRENDS 2017

    If the weathers good I'll be heading down as I do most years (free enclosure) so will see what fits your form cheers mate Tend to have better luck here than most places, not usually profit but covers expenses and beers. It's a really good day out if you have sun, highly recommend it to anyone, it's fairly family friendly too but we go as a mixed group on the piss. Only issue is getting taxis afterwards as it's heaving.

    Thanks to evilsatan

    ganjaman2 (30th May 2017) 


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