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    Default *EPSOM OAKS TRENDS 2017

    The Investec Oaks takes place at Epsom on Friday 2nd June. It’s the fillies’ equivalent to the Derby, run over the same 1M 4F trip. There have been a couple of upsets in recent years with Look Here taking the prize at 33/1 in 2008 and Qualify at 50/1 in 2015.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

    Age

    Race for 3yos

    Breeding

    Irish bred: 5-7-58
    British bred: 4-10-58
    American bred: 1-3-10
    German bred: 0-0-1
    9 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner (exception by a group 2 winner)
    4 of last 5 winners were sired by a winner of the Epsom Derby.
    Galileo progeny: 050700850851042068761 (2-1-21)
    Fastnet Rock progeny: 741874 (1-0-6)
    Zoffany progeny: 2 (0-1-1)

    Recent/Past Form

    8 of 10 winners had had 2 to 5 career starts (2 exceptions had run 7+ times and were trained by Aidan O'Brien)
    10 of 10 winners had run 1 or 2 times that season
    9 of 10 winners had won over 1M+
    8 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 1M as 2yos
    8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 over 1M 2F+ last time (2 exceptions yet to run over further than a mile & ran in Irish 1000 Guineas last time)
    5 of 10 winners won last time out (3 exceptions finished 2nd/3rd in an Oaks trial & other two were 2nd & 10th in Irish 1000 Guineas)
    8 of 10 winners achieved their highest RPR last time (all 10 winners posted RPR of 98+ last time)
    10 of 10 winners ran in the last 35 days
    7 of 10 winners had won at listed level or higher (3 exceptions were 2nd/3rd in listed or group 3)

    2yo Form

    British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Fillies' winner (Sobetsu): 12613 (2-2-5)
    Moyglare Stud Stakes winner (Intricately): 551 (1-0-3)
    Fillies' Mile winner (Rhododendron): 6471 (1-0-4)
    2 of 3 Aidan O'Brien-trained winners ran in Moyglare Stud Stakes, finishing 61
    2 of 3 Aidan O'Brien-trained winners ran in Fillies Mile, finishing 52
    2 of 7 British-trained winners ran in British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies' Maiden, finishing 11

    3yo Form

    Pretty Polly Stakes winner (horseplay): 00007115 (2-0-8)
    Cheshire Oaks winner (Enable): 100527044 (1-1-9)
    Newbury Fillies Trial winner (Natavia): 04330 (0-2-5)
    2 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Pretty Polly Stakes last time, finishing 11
    2 of 3 Aidan O'Brien-trained winners ran in 1000 Guineas, finishing 01
    2 of 3 Aidan O'Brien-trained winners ran in Irish 1000 Guineas last time, finishing 02
    8 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 in a recognised Oaks trial (Musidora, Pretty Polly, Sweetenham, Height Of Fashion, Blue Wind, Lingfield or Cheshire Oaks)

    Trainers

    Aidan O’Brien (3-5-34) has won the race four times in the past 11 years though he his runners have represented 25% of the total runners. His first strings have a record of 1-3-10, 2 of his 3 winners in last 10 years were sent off 20/1 & 50/1, he has also saddled placed finishers at 20/1 & 25/1 since 2007.
    Ralph Beckett (2-1-10) trained winner in 2008 and also saddled the 1-2 in 2013.
    Hugo Palmer (0-1-1) saddled runner-up in 2016.
    Irish-trained runners have a record of 3-8-45, when omitting Aidan O’Brien’s runners their record becomes 0-3-11.

    Price

    The recent trend has been towards longer priced winners, with 5 of last 10 going off at 20/1 or bigger.
    Favourites (2-2-10) have won just 2 of last 10 and show a level stakes loss of 4.84 since 2007.

    Summary:

    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

    - Sired by a winner of a group 1
    - Had 1 or 2 runs this year
    - Ran in the past 35 days & achieved career high RPR of 98+ last time
    - Won a listed or group race (or placed in group 1)
    - Won over 7F or 1M as a 2yo
    - Ran over 1M 2F+ last time
    - Won last time out (or 2nd in an Oaks Trial)
    - Finished in first 2 in a recognised Oaks Trial this year (or ran in Irish 1000 Guineas last time)
    - Trained by Ralph Beckett or Aidan O’Brien

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (30th May 2017) 


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