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    Default 3.00 Gowran Park ? Goffs Thyestes Handicap Chase ? Thursday 25th January

    This valuable handicap chase has been won in recent years by the likes of Djakadam, On His Own and Champagne West.




    The strongest trend concerns a horse?s official handicap rating and the ceiling appears to be set at 145, with only one winner in the last ten years having won off a higher mark. The horse in question was the most recent winner Champagne West, who won off 154 twelve months ago, but even so, it seems best to focus on those below this mark. A cause for concern for supporters of Champagne West, A Genie In Abottle, Ucello Conti and Pleasant Company.




    Another strong trend is that all but two of the last ten winners were aged between eight and ten. In fact, there have only been six winners from outside this bracket since 1988, which doesn?t bode well for the quartet of seven-year-olds (A Genie In Abottle, Monbeg Notorious, Call The Taxie and Woods Well) as well as the eleven-year-old Isleofhopendreams.




    As well as experience, in such a big field, it is important that a horse?s jumping is up to scratch and this is backed up by the fact that all of the last ten winners had fallen or unseated no more than twice in their chasing careers. The only member of the field with question marks over their jumping this time around is Thunder And Roses.




    Stamina is also an important factor to take into account when searching for the winner of this particular race. Seven of the last ten winners had winning form over 3m or further and with the ground likely to be heavy on Thursday, I wouldn?t want to be taking any chances on a horse?s stamina. There are seven horses without proven form over 3m, namely Ucello Conti, Flaxen Flare, Isleofhopendreams, Call The Taxie, Woods Well, Fine Theatre and Space Cadet.




    In terms of form, normally in these big handicaps, it pays to side with horses arriving on the back of a victory or placed effort but the evidence here suggests we should be thinking outside the box. Seven of the last ten winners had finished outside of the first three on their most recent outing, five of which had failed to complete.




    Weight can also be an important consideration in these competitive handicaps and the trends suggest that 11st is the ceiling, as only four of the last ten winners had won carrying a bigger burden. It is worth bearing in mind that three of those four exceptions came in the last four years so perhaps the pattern is shifting but on the whole, I would prefer to focus on those with a lower weight.




    The final factor to consider is the betting and it is fair to say that favourites have had a pretty torrid time in recent years. We have to go back to 2006 to find the last winning favourite and in that time we have had winners priced at 16/1, 20/1 and 25/1 so we shouldn?t be afraid to take a chance on one at a big price.




    Shortlist



    WOUNDED WARRIOR ? 7/7



    Out Sam ? 6/7



    Pleasant Company ? 6/7




    Conclusion





    Taking everything into account, we have just one horse who matches all seven of our trends and that is WOUNDED WARRIOR. Noel Meade?s nine-year-old has been struggling for form of late but he was sixth in this race twelve months ago off a 14lb higher mark. He travelled well for a long way on that occasion before his big weight (11st 5lb) took its toll in the closing stages. He needs to improve on what he has shown recently but he is likely to appreciate the refitting of cheekpieces which he wore last year and I think he can run better than his sizeable odds suggest.




    Just missing out on the top spot is Out Sam, who is one of six runners in the race for Gordon Elliott. The nine-year-old was previously trained in Britain by Warren Greatrex and Nicky Henderson but seemed to lose his way and needs a change of scenery to reignite his enthusiasm for the game. He is entitled to come on for his first outing for his new yard over Christmas and with crack 3lb conditional James Bowen coming over to take the ride, he looks to have plenty going in his favour.



    The shortlist is completed by Pleasant Company who was fourth in the race twelve months ago. That was the ten-year-old?s first start for nearly a year and having won a Grade 3 chase next time, it is hard to argue that he didn?t improve for his first run of the season. He races here off a mark of 146 which is just above the 145 ceiling but he has a run under his belt this time around and it would be no surprise to see him go close once again this year.

    3 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    akimba (25th January 2018),  ilscuro (24th January 2018),  neilb (24th January 2018)  


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