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    Default Saturdays Racing - 17/2/2018

    1.30 Haydock – Betfred TV Victor Ludorum Juvenile Hurdle.

    The Victor Ludorum has been won by some quality performers in recent times such as Houblon des Obeaux, Frodon and Top Notch and we could well see another star in this year’s renewal with LISP looking a most exciting prospect. Although he disappointed in a trio of spins on the level for Charlie Hills, the Kelvin-Hughes’ home-bred was always destined for a National Hunt career being out of their talented mare Hora and a half-brother to a trio of useful sorts in Magna Cartor, Coeur de Lion and 155-rated hurdler Thomas Campbell. He was too free early on making his hurdling debut at Fontwell in November and had to settle for the runner-up spot after a mistake at the final flight. He made no mistake second time up though when scoring at Plumpton and seemed to benefit a lot for that experience when sluicing up back at Fontwell a month ago. A double-penalty doesn’t make things easy but I can only see him improving as he gets the hang of things for a trainer in Alan King who is an expert with juveniles. He holds a Triumph Hurdle entry and could emerge as a live outsider with victory here.


    Cornerstone Lad is another with the burden of a double penalty and although Micky Hammond has enjoyed success in this contest in the past, landing the 2013 renewal with Only Orsenfoolsies, he looks up against on the face of things. Although impressive when winning at Hexham, he disappointed at Wetherby next time and only just got up under a penalty from the re-opposing Turning Gold, who has since let the form down, last time out.

    Therefore, the biggest danger to the selection could well be the third doubly-penalised runner in the race Shambra, although the filly does benefit from a handy 7lb sex allowance. She always looked in control when making it 2-2 at Wetherby earlier this month, despite making a mistake at the last, and certainly looks to be heading in the right direction. The suspicion is that she may find things tougher now taking on the boys though and may have to settle for a place.

    With just a single penalty, Mister Chow is weighted to go well and will likely have a part to play having defeated the re-opposing Swaffham Bulbeck quite cosily at Warwick last time. That form was franked when third-placed Night of Glory just got up at Fontwell on Thursday and he can fill the placings.


    Advice


    LISP – 2pts win @ 2/1 (bet365)




    2.45 Wincanton – Betway Kingwell Hurdle (Grade 2)


    I was going to say that this isn’t the most vintage of renewals but given the likes of Rayvin Black and Blue Heron find themselves on the Roll of Honour in the last few years, perhaps the Kingwell isn’t the race that it used to be.


    It has proven a happy hunting ground for Alan King with a third of the last 9 winners to his name but his top weight Elgin looks to be up against it here. The Greatwood Hurdle winner from back in November was found out off his new mark in the race formerly known as the Ladbroke at Ascot just before Christmas. That has prompted connections to have to tackle weight-for-age races for the time being and although he finished runner-up in a couple of Grade 2 contests last season as a novice, he was ultimately well beaten. He seems to have improved this season but the ground looks against him here.


    Even though Ch’tibello has won on heavy ground and was only just touched off by The New One in a stamina-sapping Champion Hurdle Trial at Haydock last time, I’m still not convinced that really getting his toe in brings the best out of him. He was a close second to Yanworth in last season’s renewal but is another that always tends to find one or two too good at this level. This could well be his best opportunity but he may have just run into one again in CALL ME LORD.


    The two-time winner in France burst onto the scene with victory in a competitive juvenile handicap on the final day of last season, looking like a real prospect in the process. It’s fair to say the he disappointed on his return this campaign at Huntingdon back in November but that seemed to blow away the cobwebs and he returned to winning ways with an impressive win in a Sandown handicap early last month. Still only five-years-old, he looks to be firmly on an upward curve and with conditions to suit, can propel himself into the Champion Hurdle reckoning with a win here.


    Flying Tiger hit the heights last year when landing the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham Festival but hasn’t covered himself in glory since so looks up against it while Cliffs of Dover was an exciting juvenile early last season but has been off the track for well over a year and is unproven on ground worse than good. Both may be looking at a support role at best.


    Advice


    CALL ME LORD – 1.5pts win @ 7/4 (bet365)




    3.00 Ascot – Ascot Spring Garden Show Handicap Hurdle.


    This looks a small field relative to what is normally expected in a race like this but even so, there looks to be plenty of quality within it.

    Nicky Henderson saddles two runners, with the first Fixe Le Kap having his first run since undergoing a wind operation. He was a disappointing second at Plumpton the last time we saw him but that was over fences and he should appreciate returning to these smaller obstacles. He is just 5lb higher than when second to London Prize in last season’s Imperial Cup and with that horse having progressed since, there is every chance he could still have more to come. He should have no trouble handling the soft ground but he does have to concede weight to some unexposed horses.


    Henderson’s other runner is Stowaway Magic who has been campaigned over fences so far this term. Having chased home Fountains Windfall at Southwell in November, he filled the same place behind Peter The Mayo Man at Doncaster next time. He too was second at Sandown last spring off a similar mark to today and he looks an interesting contender returning to hurdles.


    Daryl Jacob is retained rider for Simon Munir and Isaac Souede so he could have ridden Fixe Le Kap but instead he has opted to ride Kildisart. Ben Pauling’s six-year-old won over this course and distance in a maiden hurdle in November and looked to have been let in lightly by the handicapper on a mark of 128. However, he bumped into the progressive Golan Fortune at Kempton and with the pair drawing well clear of the third, he has since been raised 7lb. That was just his third race over hurdles so there is every chance he could still improve and with his stable back amongst the winners, he looks one of the more likely contenders.


    However, I slightly prefer the claims of DIEG MAN who has won his first two starts in Britain since joining Neil Mulholland. The winner of a 4yo handicap hurdle at Auteuil in June, he has been very impressive in winning novice hurdles at Sedgefield and Catterick in recent months. He beat a good yardstick in the shape of Blottos last time, who has won since and there is every chance that he is well-handicapped on a mark of 130. The conditions underfoot shouldn’t hold any fears for him and I suspect he could take all the beating here.


    One final horse to mention is Le Patriote who has been well-backed on both of his starts since joining Dr Richard Newland. The French import was seventh in the Lanzarote before finishing fourth at Cheltenham last time but is clearly not showing on the track what he does at home. His astute trainer has fitted him with cheekpieces for the first time on Saturday and it would be no surprise to see him turn in an improved effort in his new headgear.


    Advice


    DIEG MAN – 2pts win @ 3/1 (SkyBet, William Hill)



    3.15 Haydock – Betfred Grand National Trial (Grade 3) (HANDICAP)


    Looking ahead to this weekend and as only Silver By Nature and Rigadin De Beauchene won this race having finished outside the first three on his most recent start, it seems best to side with runners arriving here in form. This spells trouble for the sextet of Yala Enki, Three Faces West, Silsol, Wild West Wind, Sir Mangan and Mysteree who all arrive here having finished outside the placings last time. It therefore seems imperative to side with a horse heading the right way rather than one looking to bounce back to form.


    This level at which previous performances have come is also vitally important with six of the last ten winners having recorded a victory in Class 2 company or higher prior to contesting this Grade 3 event. Daklondike is the only member of this year’s field to miss the cut on this score and will be looking to emulate Well Refreshed, Giles Cross, Silver By Nature and Bishops Road who all bucked this trend when winning their respective renewals.


    In terms of official ratings, the benchmark for this contest looks to be set at 135 with eight of the ten most recent winners having achieved this mark or higher before coming here. This is perhaps surprising given the extra weight these horses had to carry in conditions which are often on the testing side. However, all nine of our runners are rated upwards of 135 this year.


    Having briefly alluded to the stamina-sapping conditions that participants often encounter, it is essential that potential winners of the race have the necessary stamina. This is supported by the fact that all of the last ten winners had all recorded previous victories over three miles or further. The only one with stamina questions to answer this year is Silsol, who has won over 3m2f over hurdles but has yet to win over further than 2m5f over the larger obstacles.


    It could be said that the attribute which is taken for granted most often in National Hunt racing is the ability of a horse to jump the obstacles in front of it, which is especially important over longer distances where horses can get very tired and lose concentration. This can be quantified by noting that of the last ten winners; seven of them had fallen or unseated no more than twice during their careers. However, this year’s field looks to be a collection of fine jumpers with all nine making the cut.


    When considering age, in recent years there has been a shift towards younger runners with seven of the last ten winners being aged eight or nine, this includes six of the last eight horses to be successful. Those in the desired bracket this year are Blaklion, The Dutchman, Yala Enki, Silsol and Wild West Wind. As for the rest, there is some hope for the trio of ten-year-olds (Three Faces West, Sir Mangan and Mysteree) as there have been three winners aged ten or older in the last decade but there has never been a winner aged younger than seven, which is a big negative for David Pipe’s six-year-old Daklondike.


    Another factor worthy of mention is that nine of the last ten winners had run within the last sixty days prior to winning here. The top horse Blaklion is the only one to miss out on this score, having been off the track for 70 days since his victory in the Becher Chase at Aintree.

    The final factor to be considered is the one looking at the betting and it does not make good reading for favourite backers as only two of the last ten has obliged. Whilst the market is still open to change between now and Saturday afternoon, Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Blaklion heads the market at 9/4 and therefore there would have to be question marks about his chances.

    Shortlist

    THE DUTCHMAN – 8/8

    Yala Enki – 7/8

    Wild West Wind – 7/8

    Conclusion

    On the trends, the one that stands out is THE DUTCHMAN who matches all of our eight key trends. Colin Tizzard’s eight-year-old produced a fine performance to win the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock in January and with conditions likely to be similar on Saturday, he looks likely to go well again. He has been raised 13lb for that success but he was showing no signs of stopping in the closing stages and pulled well clear of his rivals at the line, so he could be up to defying his new mark. There could still be more to come from this lightly-raced eight-year-old and I fancy him to run a big race here.

    Just missing out on the top spot is Yala Enki who finished fourth behind The Dutchman here in January. He does get a sizeable pull in the weights with that rival here but he has been running as though the handicapper has him in his grasp of late. However, Venetia Williams’ eight-year-old has shown a liking for these conditions in the past and although he needs to bounce back from an early fall last time, it would be no surprise to see him run well.

    The final member of the shortlist is Wild West Wind who was travelling as well as anything when falling in the re-arranged Welsh Grand National last time. Tom George’s nine-year-old had been progressing prior to that, having won three of his last four chases and there is every chance he would have gone close had he stayed on his feet. He is still relatively unexposed over fences and with a low weight on his back, it is hard to write him off here.


    Advice


    THE DUTCHMAN – 1pt win @ 5/1 (Paddy Power)



    3.50 Haydock – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) (AF)


    This Pertemps Qualifier represents one of the last chances for many of these to qualify for the Final at the Cheltenham Festival and for some of those towards the foot of the weights to get their heads in front in a bid to raised their handicap marks.


    The weights are headed by Shantou Bob who may have run below-par at Leopardstown a couple of weeks ago, but the form of his penultimate run behind Flemcara would give him a chance here. Warren Greatrex’s ten-year-old had been holding his form well before his blip last time and with Tom Greatrex back on this time, he takes a valuable 7lb off his back. His headgear has also been tinkered with as he wears blinkers for the first time here and if they can eke out a little bit more from the ten-year-old, he may not be too far away despite his big weight.


    Top Ville Ben is another who has plenty of weight on his back and was raised 12lb for winning over this course and distance at the end of December. He seemed to struggle with that elevated mark at Kempton next time but these are pretty specialist conditions and having shown a liking for them in the past, he can’t be ruled out.
    Splash Of Ginge is an interesting runner returning to hurdles having been campaigned over the larger obstacles this term. Nigel Twiston-Davies’ veteran won the BetVictor Gold Cup at Cheltenham in November and his mark here is just 4lb above that. However, his three runs either side of that win have been below-par so he arrives here with a bit to prove.


    Nick Gifford’s Theo’s Charm is another who has to be considered having finished third behind Sam Spinner here in November. He has also been placed on his two other visits to Haydock in the past including this race last year, in which he finished third. He should handle conditions but I’m not sure how well-handicapped he is at present.


    The likely market leader looks to be Black Ivory who did us a favour earlier in the season when winning at Warwick. Following the death of Malcolm Jefferson, his daughter Ruth is now running the yard and it would be no surprise to see this six-year-old improve again here. A 6lb rise for his latest victory seems fair enough and having won on heavy ground at Aintree in December, he should be able to handle these testing conditions. However, there are a number of unexposed novices in the field and whilst I could see him winning again, I think he is worth taking on at the prices.


    One such novice is Tommy Rapper who has shown his fair share of quirks in the past but has done little wrong when winning on his last two starts. His latest victory at Towcester was perhaps his most mature to date as he showed no signs of stopping in the closing stages under Bridget Andrews. He was highly-tried last term, running in the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival but having retained his novice status, he looks an interesting contender starting out in handicaps.


    Even more lightly-raced is Noble Robin who having been off the track for nearly a year following his hurdling debut, has made up for lost time with two smooth successes. The ground was on the testing side at both Ffos Las and Wetherby which he seemed to relish and I don’t see him having any problems with the conditions on Saturday. A mark of 130 seems fair enough on what he has achieved so far and he looks a likely player for the yard which won this with Synchronised in 2009.


    However, the one I like the look of is DE RASHER COUNTER who was staying on into third in a Grade 2 last time when falling at the last. It was a pretty tired fall but the way he ran suggests that he should appreciate the step up to 3m for the first time. He probably wouldn’t have got to Santini and Black Op but given their progressive profiles, there is every chance that this horse could be well-treated on a mark of 140. Emma Lavelle’s yard has hit something of a purple patch in the last couple of weeks and with the ground conditions likely to be in his favour, I think he has a good each-way chance.


    Advice


    DE RASHER COUNTER – 1pt e/w @ 12/1 (bet365) (1/4 odds)



    4.10 Ascot – racinguk.com/clubdays Handicap Hurdle.


    In what are likely to be testing conditions, this could end up being an attritional contest which only those with a liking for a battle and a slog will be able to see out.

    Buckle Street saw out three miles at Cheltenham on his last start well enough to finish third in what was a higher quality contest on heavy ground. On that form, this five-year-old has a massive shout, but he does carry almost two stone more in actual terms (10st4lb to 12st) and having to lug that around for three miles in tacky, soft ground is always a tough ask and he might find it tough despite Harry Stock’s 7lb claim.


    Another who has to carry a welter burden is Nigel Twiston-Davies’ TEMPLEROSS, who was a very useful novice hurdler a year ago and whose last victory came over three miles in soft ground. Chasing hasn’t quite gone to plan this season for the seven-year-old and a return to hurdles from a mark of 127 looks a decent decision by the trainer for a horse that was second in the Listed Lanzarote Hurdle off the same mark just over 12 months ago. His stable are hitting some decent form at the moment with seven winners from their last 25 runners and after four runs this term, he should be spot on for fitness. Of course he’ll have to put in a better performance than his well-beaten seventh at Warwick last time out, but he ran well for a long way in a decent race there and he’s handicapped to go well if he handles carrying the weight along with sporting a visor for the first time. Jamie Bargary’s 3lb claim helps a little as well, so I think he’ll be right there come the finish and a double-figure price looks a mistake.


    When I looked at these at entry stage, one stood out looking at the form of a race over C&D around six weeks ago, where Paul Henderson’s Hatchet Jack was fifth, not far behind two well-handicapped Nicky Henderson horses who were entered for this race at the five-day stage but not declared (presumably down to the soft ground) and he was also then second in a race won by Savoy Court, another 5-day entry that wasn’t declared here, at Wincanton. He would have had a 10lb swing with the latter, which would have helped him bridge the gap, while the softer ground would definitely have helped him turn the tables on the rivals he finished behind here in December. It’s a shame some of those rivals weren’t declared to give us a solid steer, but this six-year-old stays well, doesn’t look to have any issues with soft ground and seems to be improving with just five starts over hurdles after his switch from the pointing field. His ‘blue collar’, no quirks style could be just what this race requires and I think he may well go close, even if there may be some classier types than him in the field.


    Mon Palois looked a promising type coming out of bumpers and quickly rattled off a couple of hurdles wins, but in more recent times, he’s found handicap company difficult and hasn’t been sighted in a couple of runs now. However, he was severely hampered close to the start of his last race and never got the chance to show whether three miles and soft ground would be ideal or not. From 1lb lower Kim Bailey’s charge could well show that he’s on a decent mark, but he’s still a risky proposition at the moment given that his stamina is unproven for a test of this nature.


    Coming into the race on a three-timer, Jonjo O’Neill’s Pop Rockstar certainly will have no issues with three miles on soft ground and he’s definitely one to keep an eye out for, but the 13lb rise for his last two wins could be a huge stumbling block in a much better race than the ones he has been contesting. Obviously he’s in good form and as a six-year-old, he could have more to come, but this is a step up and it could find him out.


    Malapie also comes into the race off the back of a win and a hike in the weights (5lb this time), but he’s a ten-year-old now and even though he’s lightly-raced for his age and this winter has been his best for some time, it’s hard to think that he’d be improving enough to go in again. Still, he loves soft ground, stays well (has won over this trip before) and has the assistance of the excellent Sean Bowen, so even though the likes of TEMPLEROSS have the beating of him on Warwick form from January (a neck ahead and a 7lb swing in the weights in favour of Twiston-Davies’ horse), he could battle on when some have cried enough.


    Advice:



    TEMPLEROSS – 1pt e/w @ 9/1 (bet365) (1/4 odds)




    4.25 Haydock – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2)


    With the ground likely to be very much on the heavy-side, this 3m Grade 2 for up-and-coming novices will prove to be a gruelling test of stamina.

    The only runner in the field proven over this far on heavy going under Rules is Piri Massini, who caused a big shock when upsetting his more fancied stablemate Rio Quinto on his first run for training-sensation Olly Murphy at Fakenham last month. It shouldn’t have come as that much of a surprise as he had decent form in the book in an Irish point, beating the now 135-rated chaser Woods Well by a length, but the well over two-year gap between those runs may have had something to do with it! He clearly has a bit about him but this is a big step up in class and the fact that the runner-up has since been a beaten favourite again, letting the form down, coupled with Fergus Gregory not being able to claim his usual 7lb in this Grade 2 contest, is enough for me to look elsewhere here.


    Therefore, preference is for CHEF DES OBEAUX, who looked a different proposition when stepped up to an extended 3m at Kempton last month. The French import had to settle for the runner-up spot on his first two starts for current connections but those performances, behind the pretty useful Sam Brown in a bumper and fellow Cheltenham Festival contender and stablemate Santini in a novice hurdle (both at Newbury), were still solid efforts and he has since found the winning thread. He was unsuited by the way the race developed at Uttoxeter when opening his account but seemed ideally suited to 3m latest, travelling strongly into contention before readily asserting himself for a whopping 19-length success. In truth, that may not turn out to be the strongest of contests but it was the manner in which he put the race to bed that really caught the eye and a repeat of that would see him very hard to beat (for all that a bit of brushing up on his jumping wouldn’t go amiss!).


    There are a fair few interesting types that won’t make it easy for him though, led by Golan Fortune who has been most progressive in handicaps over the winter. He saw his winning run come to an end last time but wasn’t disgraced when runner-up to Topofthegame in the Grade 3 Heroes Handicap Hurdle at Sandown earlier this month and has probably earned a crack at this level now. Whether he is quite good enough to get involved remains to be seen but he is an admirable performer and may have a say in matters.


    On the face of it, Global Stage’s effort last time looks too bad to be true so I’d be willing to draw a line through it. He didn’t look comfortable from halfway so I don’t think it was the step up in trip that went against him and he certainly looks the type to need three miles given his strapping frame (has won a 3m Irish point). Connections have said that he needs time between his races so he could have been laid out for this and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him bounce back to form with a solid run, especially with first-time cheekpieces now enlisted.


    Nevertheless, Coole Hall may be the biggest threat to the selection representing the same trainer/jockey combination that landed the 2016 renewal with Jonniesofa. Rose Dobbin’s six-year-old does have to concede weight all round courtesy of a Class 2 victory on Newcastle’s Fighting Fifth card back in early December but he shouldered a double penalty to score with ease at Kelso last-time-out so may still be able to make his presence felt. This is the furthest he has gone so far under Rules but he did dead-heat for a win in a 3m Irish point just over a year ago and looks to have the size to excel over this slightly longer trip. On paper, the official ratings suggest he may have a bit to find with the selection but I still expect him to cause a few problems.


    Of the remainder, Uppertown Prince must be respected for the in-form Donald McCain yard but he may have a bit to find with Shannon Bridge on a form line through Samuel Jackson. McCain’s charge had to play second fiddle to him at Bangor last-time-out while the Dan Skelton runner finished nine lengths clear of him when a short head second to Enniscoffey Oscar in the Grade 2 River Don Novices’ Hurdle on his most recent start. The youngest horse in this contest at only five, he was just worried out of it over slightly further at Doncaster and may just need a bit more time before really making his mark at this level.


    Advice


    CHEF DES OBEAUX – 1.5pts win @ 6/4 (bet365)




    4.30 Wincanton – Betway Handicap Chase.


    Heading the weights here is Officer Hoolihan from the Tim Vaughan stable and, to be honest, it’s a surprise to see him lining up here with the ground likely to be quite soft. All his improvement over the past year has come on a sound surface and this two-and-a-half-mile trip on testing ground might stretch him, especially under this big weight. He’s 9lb higher than for the last of his two wins on the bounce and a 1lb higher mark than this found him out in a big way when he was pulled up behind Acting Lass at Market Rasen when he was last seen, so he looks one to take on.


    Four and a half lengths back in second behind the rapidly improving Town Parks’ at Hereford last time out was the Colin Tizzard-trained SILVERHOW, who hails from a stable that is beginning to finally hit some better form. Tizzard seems to have been feeling his way with this horse since he moved from Nicky Henderson and this slight drop in trip back from 2m5f, combined with slightly better ground than for that run, could well help this seven-year-old half-brother to Altior to start to show his full potential. He won races off marks higher than this over hurdles and it wouldn’t surprise me if he did end up being a better chaser, so he’ll surely start to hit the winning trail sooner rather than later off a mark of just 119, especially given that he wasn’t far behind a horse that is now rated 134.


    Native Robin is on a three timer and won very easily indeed last time out at Fontwell, suggesting a subsequent 8lb rise in the weights may not be enough to stop him here, even though it’s clearly a much better race that he’ll have to attempt to dominate. Soft ground and this trip hold no fears and he could be a threat, especially if he’s allowed to dictate from the front again in this small field, but you would think that he won’t be given too much rope, even if there is only five (possibly four as Princeton Royale runs today) in the field.


    Last seen finishing a well-beaten third behind Pougne Bobbi three weeks ago at Huntingdon, Allee Bleue is one who will want the heavens to open and for it to become borderline unraceable as he’s shown ability over fences, but certainly not bundles of pace. All his wins have come on soft/heavy ground and have come when he’s pushed the pace from the start, drawing the sting out of his rivals. However, even though he could have his almost ideal conditions here, his stable’s in poor form and he’s a difficult ride that runs in snatches and doesn’t quicken. A mark of 117 is an attractive one but he’s risky.


    Advice


    SILVERHOW – 1pt win @ 9/4 (Paddy Power)

    3 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (17th February 2018),  ilscuro (17th February 2018),  neilb (17th February 2018)  


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    Default Re: Saturdays Racing - 17/2/2018

    1.30 Haydock Lisp came in 3rd

    2.45 Wincanton Call me lord came in 3rd


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