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    Default Day 1. The Cheltenham Festival 13/3/2018

    1.30 Cheltenham – The Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Race (Grade 1)


    Last year’s Supreme certainly didn’t follow any trends script, with the enigmatic Labaik landing Gordon Elliott a stunning victory. However, Irish runners on the whole have fared better than their British rivals, having landed 13 of the last 22 renewals. Willie Mullins won three of the last five with Champagne Fever, Vautour and Douvan and he seems to lead the Irish challenge once again this year with two contenders, Getabird and Sharjah.

    The market for this year’s race suggests that the Emerald Isle hold a strong hand once again with not only Willie Mullins’ Getabird currently the horse everyone fancies to get their Festival off to a flying start, but Mengli Khan and Paloma Blue will also hold claims. The former and Mullins’ Sharjah will both have a strong trend to overcome however as horses who have started their careers on the flat don’t have the best of records in recent years, with just one win (trends buster Labaik) and two places from 54 runners since 2008.


    horses aged 7 or older are 2/39 since the turn of the century and to find the last eight-year-old winner of the race, we have to go back to Like-A-Butterfly ridden to victory by Charlie Swan in 2002, so huge outsider, eight-year-old Saxo Jack, has another obstacle in his way to an extremely unlikely success. The rest of the field are aged six or less.


    Another factor to consider is that the cream normally rises to the top here with the top-rated horse in the field on BHA ratings having landed three of the last 4 renewals. Kalashnikov occupies that berth this time round after his brave Betfair Hurdle win, but Getabird has been rated 152 after just two hurdles runs and may have more to come.


    In tandem with the previous point, 10 of the last 16 winners of the race have contested a Grade 1 hurdle. This just accentuates the theory that quality reigns supreme (apologies for the pun!) here. Debuchet, Mengli Khan, Paloma Blue, Sharjah, Trainwreck, Kalashnikov, Summerville Boy, Western Ryder and Dame Rose fit that bill here.


    The betting has proven very informative in the Supreme in recent years with 6 of the last 8 winners emanating from the top 4 positions in the market. Getabird, Kalashnikov, Summerville Boy and First Flow occupy those particular positions on the bookies’ boards at the time of writing.


    With the stiff Cheltenham finish separating the men from the boys, experienced hurdlers have proven to be the way to go with 11 of the last 14 winners having run in at least 4 hurdles prior to lining up here. Willie Mullins’ favourite, Getabird, falls foul of this particular trend, as does Claimantakinforgan.


    In truth, the majority of those lining up in the Festival novice events will have won last time out but it still helps to separate the wheat from the chaff. 18 of the last 21 winners (and 6 of the last 7) had won on their previous start, which doesn’t bode well for the likes of Mengli Khan and Claimantakinforgan. However, only 2 of the last 15 winners were unbeaten over hurdles, so Getabird will have to defy this trend as well.

    Headgear has been a rarity when it comes to the Supreme, but maybe that is with good reason. All 34 runners to have worn headgear here since 1992 have been beaten. As if his task wasn’t hard enough already, Khudha has this to overcome.

    Shortlist

    Kalashnikov

    Getabird

    Summerville Boy

    Paloma Blue

    With the ground turning heavy and the race looking likely to be a severe test, it looks best to keep to those with experience of such conditions and, luckily, the trends reflect that with the recent impressive heavy-ground Betfair Hurdle winner, Kalashnikov, heading the table. He’s proved he can perform to a very high level when winning that race and the experience will stand him in good stead. If he can once again handle conditions, but travel a little sweeter this time, he must have a huge chance of giving trainer Amy Murphy and jockey Jack Quinlan a first Cheltenham festival winner.


    An obvious threat will surely be the Willie Mullins-trained Getabird, running in the same Ricci colours carried to victory in the race by Champagne Fever, Vautour and Douvan. Although this horse may not quite have the experienced profile often needed to win this race, Mullins went close with a similarly lightly-raced sort in Melon last season and this gelding must be respected. He shot clear of Mengli Khan in soft/heavy ground at Punchestown last time and a similar performance should see him go close despite worries over the suitability of a left-handed track.


    Summerville Boy doesn’t seem to be getting quite as much respect as expected after winning the Grade 1 Tolworth Novices’ Hurdle at Sandown, defeating Kalashnikov, and is still available at 9/1 at the time of writing. He has heavy ground form, plenty of experience and will certainly stay well, so Tom George’s charge checks many of the non-Mullins, non-Irish related trends boxes and cannot be underestimated.


    Completing the shortlist is Paloma Blue from the Henry De Bromhead stable who was last seen chasing home the second coming, otherwise known as Samcro, at Leopardstown in the Grade 1 Deloitte Novices’ Hurdle. He was keen that day, but was still the only horse capable of going with Samcro up to the last and despite getting pipped for second by a highly-regarded Mullins horse, Duc Des Genievres, it was a solid run. If Davy Russell can settle him better here and play him later, he could well be involved in the finish.




    2.10 Cheltenham – The Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Steeple Chase (Grade 1)



    Each of the last 8 victors had prevailed on their latest start so recent winning form is a big plus. Taking this a step further, horses unbeaten over fences except when falling, unseating or being brought down are 12/52 this century which puts a tick in the box for Footpad and Saint Calvados.


    Top level form is certainly a plus when it comes to most Cheltenham Festival races and the Arkle is no different in that respect. 13 of the last 16 winners had registered a win in either a Grade 1 or Grade 2 chase. Only Footpad and Saint Calvados fit the bill this time round.


    With that in mind, it should come as no surprise that the top-rated horse has won 6 of the last 10 renewals, a boost for Footpad. But it isn’t only chase form that we have to focus on as those horses who achieved an RPR of 160+ are 8/16 in the last 16 renewals. Brain Power, Footpad and Petit Mouchoir are the three to have earned a high enough rating over the smaller obstacles.


    Age has proven to be a major factor over the years and although most of the runners tend to fall into the 6-8-year-old bracket, they are certainly the group to focus on. A more damning statistic is the record of five-years-old who are 0-5 in the 10 renewals since the weight-for-age allowance was shelved; not a good omen for Saint Calvados.


    Favourites have enjoyed a successful time of things in the Arkle of late, winning 4 of the last 5 runnings. In fact, every winner this century apart from 33/1 shot Western Warhorse in 2014 were priced in single-figures so historically that tells us that outsiders are up against it. At the time of writing, only Brain Power and Robinshill fall foul of this trend.


    Shortlist

    Footpad

    Saint Calvados


    Footpad emerges as the clear stats pick, matching the vast majority of the trends. The unbeaten chaser struck at the highest level twice over hurdles but already looks even better over fences, landing a pair of Grade 1s on his last two starts to make it 3/3 over the larger obstacles. The six-year-old comfortably accounted for the re-opposing Petit Mouchoir in the Irish Arkle last month and there seems to be every chance that Willie Mullins’ charge will improve the strong recent record of the market leader.

    Robinshill aside, there isn’t a great deal to separate the remaining trio but they all fall well short of Footpad. Saint Calvados just sneaks onto the shortlist ahead of Petit Mouchoir and Brain Power though, despite having to overcome the poor record of five-year-olds now they race off level weights. Harry Whittington’s stable star wasn’t as good a hurdler as his main rivals here but has improved on each of his three chase starts, hosing up in the Grade 2 Kingmaker Novices’ Chase at Warwick last time. He’ll need to step up again to compete with some quality opposition here but can get involved if he continues on his steep upward curve.

    I think it’s fair to expect a better showing from Petit Mouchoir here having probably needed the run when well beaten in the Irish Arkle last time. The seven-year-old finished three lengths clear of Footpad in the Champion Hurdle 12 months ago, so we know he is fully capable of getting the better of the favourite, but he will have to have found a fair amount of improvement to reverse the form of a month ago.


    Brain Power evidently comes with risks attached having failed to complete on each of his last two starts but I suppose that’s reflected in the price. Ability-wise, I don’t think there is any question that he is good enough to be in the mix and he has had a wind-op since tipping up in the Clarence House Chase, but a completion record of 1/3 over fences is pretty concerning and there will be easier opportunities for him to get back on track than this.



    2.50 Cheltenham – The Ultima Handicap Steeple Chase (Grade 3)


    There are some staying races at the Festival where the winners haven’t run at that sort of trip before – this is not one of them. Every single winner of this race this century has recorded their best RPR over at least 2m 7 1/2f, so you’re certainly looking for a proven stayer, best at a longer trip, especially in ground as soft as expected. horses that find themselves outside of this category include Shantou Flyer and Eamon An Cnoic.


    Although favourites haven’t got a great record in the race, (2 winning jollies since 1977) the betting is usually a good guide – 13 winners this century have come from the first 5 in the market and have gone off at a price of 12/1 or less. Coo Star Sivola (fav at the time of writing), Singlefarmpayment, Vintage Clouds, Gold Present and Ramses De Teillee occupy those positions at the time of writing.


    Interestingly, each of the last 6 winners of the race wore some kind of headgear, an ever-increasing trend it seems in many of the staying chases at the Festival. The likes of Singlefarmpayment, Minella Daddy and Vicente have some kind of headgear equipped for this race here.

    Perhaps not so surprisingly, those with Festival experience have outperformed those without, as only 1 of the last 9 winners of the race was making their Festival debut. Those arriving at Prestbury Park in March for the first time include Ramses De Teillee, Minella Daddy and Wakanda.

    Although Festival experience is key, seasoned campaigners have certainly not been the band to follow here. First and second-season chasers have dominated in recent times having recorded 14 wins this century, not a good sign for the likes of Shantou Flyer, Wakanda and Sizing Codelco.

    Well-fancied Irish-trained contenders should always be paid attention to, while David Pipe’s record of three wins in the last ten years in this race must be taken note of. He saddles Ramses De Teillee and Eamon An Cnoic this year. In contrast, Paul Nicholls’ record isn’t even a patchy one with no winners of this contest – his runner this year, Vicente, will have this stat to overcome.


    horses rated 140+ have won 10 of the last 17 runnings of this race, so from Vic De Touzaine down to Eamon An Cnoic, those horses look to have history against them, even if the heavy ground could render this stat at some risk given the light weights they’ll be carrying.


    Shortlist

    Singlefarmpayment

    Vintage Clouds

    Ramses de Teillee


    Second in the race last season when agonisingly pipped at the post by Un Temps Pour Tout, Tom George’s Singlefarmpayment looks to return this year with just as big a chance off a 3lb higher mark. He fits most of the trends and his experience in this contest could prove invaluable. However, he hasn’t been in the best of form recently and this heavy ground does temper enthusiasm for him slightly.

    After winning three of the last ten renewals of this race, David Pipe’s entries must be respected and this year, it looks as if Ramses De Teillee carries his major hopes. This progressive novice chaser has been in excellent form in soft and heavy ground over the winter and a mark of 145 looks fair judging by his good second to RSA contender Elegant Escape at Exeter last time out. With stamina and the racing surface sure to prove no issue, he could go well at a double figure price.

    However, another catches the eye here and it is Sue Smith’s Vintage Clouds, who was close up in this contest last year when falling two out and this softer ground and greater accent on stamina will play right into his hands. He looks a much improved horse this season and his latest second to Ballyoptic in heavy ground in the Grade 2 Towton Novices’ Chase could well be one of the best pieces of form on offer from any of these horses this season. Racing from 7lb higher than last year’s mark, he could go very close under Danny Cook and he’s been well-backed in recent days to do so.




    3.30 Cheltenham – The Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1)


    As the highlight of the 2m hurdling calendar, it will come as little surprise that history suggests it is best to focus on those in their prime. horses at both ends of the age spectrum don’t have the best of records, with five-year-olds 1-100 since 1985 and the 27 runners aged 10 or older since 1981 have all been beaten. That suggests that the bracket to focus on are those aged between 6 and 9. There is one five-year-old in the line-up this year, Charli Parcs, while eleven-year-old My Tent Or Yours could find it difficult to go one better than last year and Faugheen faces a tough ask to regain his crown at the age of 10.


    With the abysmal record of older horses, it comes as little surprise that this particular contest hasn’t leant itself to the seasoned campaigners over the years. Only 1 of the last 11 winners had raced more than 12 times over hurdles, which means that the two veterans previously mentioned look up against it, along with useful dual purpose performer Wicklow Brave.


    In terms of trainers, there is no doubt that the Irish have dominated in recent years, having been responsible for 12 of the last 19 winners. Hurricane Fly, Jezki, Faugheen and Annie Power have all landed the spoils for the Emerald Isle in recent times and their dominance was underlined in 2015 when the first four home were all trained in Ireland. Willie Mullins fields four this year with Melon and Yorkhill joining Faugheen and Wicklow Brave.

    Although home-based animals have tended to struggle in the main, Nicky Henderson-trained runners have been the exception. horses campaigning from Seven Barrows are 6/38 in the Champion Hurdle and Buveur d’Air will be a hot-favourite to defend his title. He will be joined by Henderson’s My Tent Or Yours and outsiders Verdana Blue and Charli Parcs.


    Festival form has proven a key guide when it comes to the Champion Hurdle with horses that finished in the first 3 at last year’s meeting 15/98 in the last 19 renewals. This bodes well for last year’s first and second Buveur d’Air and My Tent Or Yours, as well as Melon who was runner-up in the Supreme and the 2017 JLT winner Yorkhill.


    Shortlist

    Buveur d’Air

    My Tent Or Yours

    Yorkhill


    Buveur d’Air is a strong favourite to retain the Champion Hurdle and he will be hard to beat, with the 2015 winner Faugheen not looking like he is the force of old. The market leader arrives here off the back of a much more straightforward preparation than 2017 having easily won his three runs this season, albeit in small field contests. horses unbeaten in the season are 6 out of 25 in the last 11 renewals and the seven-year-old can continue Nicky Henderson’s good record in the race. His main threat could come from stablemate My Tent Or Yours who has admirably finished runner-up in three editions of the Champion Hurdle. Although now eleven-year-old, he can give his running once again. Yorkhill is a fascinating contender for Willie Mullins as he is now reverted back to hurdles. His has always been held in high-regard by his connections but has not lived up to expectations this season. The eight-year-old has won both of his Festival starts and would have the ability to be involved if bouncing back to form.



    4.10 Cheltenham – The OLBG Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (Registered as the David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle)


    Quevega’s six in a row has skewed things somewhat but the fact remains that 7 of the 10 favourites have won, and that, in all likelihood, would have been eight had Annie Power not completely fluffed the last back in 2015. Last year’s winner Apple’s Jade is a strong odds-on favourite this time round.


    Taking this a step further, inaugural winner Whiteoak is the only winner not to have come from the top three in the betting, so the head of the market is where we should be focussing. At the time of writing, Apple’s Jade, Benie des Dieux and La Bague Au Roi lead the way atop the bookies’ boards.

    Each of the 5 winners in the short history of the Mares’ Hurdle had started their careers either in a bumper or over hurdles so it definitely seems prudent to follow those that began life under National Hunt rules. Only Benie des Dieux, Jer’s Girl and Pravalaguna of this year’s line-up fall foul of this trend.

    The record of horses in headgear is a mixed one throughout the Festival but this race has certainly proven one for those more straightforward types. None of the 23 runners to have lined up in headgear have won which puts a slight blot in the copybook of Apple’s Jade, Indian Stream, Midnight Jazz and Pravalaguna.

    Willie Mullins’ stranglehold was broken by Gordon Elliott last year but his 8/14 record is by far and away the best on offer. He doesn’t hold as strong a hand as in recent years here but Benie des Dieux and Pravalaguna must still be taken seriously as a result.

    Quevega’s domination will always make the odd trend sway and that has certainly had an effect on the ‘Festival Form’ angle. Nevertheless, she isn’t alone in the fact that those who recorded a top 2 finish at the previous year’s Festival have a very good record as Glens Melody and Apple’s Jade both finished second prior to going one better 12 months later. Gordon Elliott’s mare is the only horse in today’s line-up that fits the bill.

    Shortlist

    Apple’s Jade

    La Bague Au Roi

    Benie des Dieux


    No one horse stands out when it comes to the statistical analysis but Apple’s Jade still emerges on top despite matching only 5/8 trends. As red-hot favourite, returning to try and defend her crown, she ticks a couple of particularly strong boxes and should take all the beating.

    La Bague Au Roi just sneaks into the second spot on the shortlist but 4/8 isn’t a particularly strong performance by all accounts. The seven-year-old has improved greatly this season, opening her account at Graded level last time, and looks better placed than when a well beaten seventh in the mares’ novice at last year’s Festival.


    Given his record in the race, Willie Mullins’ runners have to be feared so Benie des Dieux completed the shortlist. Whether she’d have lined up here had Vroum Vroum Mag made it, we’ll never know, but as replacements go, she still looks pretty strong. This will be her first spin over hurdles for current connections having had just three chase starts but she has had six runs over the smaller obstacles during her days in France and we know she’ll have been well prepped.




    4.50 Cheltenham – The National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Riders’ Novices’ Steeple Chase (Grade 2)


    You need a superior type of horse to win this nowadays and only one of the last eight winners of this as a level-weights contest had not contested a Grade 1 or Grade 2 chase before coming to the Festival. All the major fancied contenders have done so, but Duel At Dawn, Pylonthepressure and Reigning Supreme are all yet to contest a chase of that particular calibre.


    As well as class, experience counts, even though this is a contest for novice chasers. 4 of the 8 winners at level weights had already ran at least 9 times over the larger obstacles while the last horse not to have had 3 runs over fences was the 1999 winner, Deejaydee. Sizing Tennessee and Rathvinden are amongst the most experienced runners here while No Comment has only had the one start and surely will lack the experience required to win this.


    Although it may seem like a recurring theme in most of this week’s races, Festival form really can’t be underestimated, and this race is no different. 5 of the 8 winners at level weights had run at the previous season’s Festival so the chances of Jury Duty, Sizing Tennessee, Keeper Hill and No Comment certainly receive a boost in this respect.


    A top-quality pilot is essential here and the best amateurs can be worth a lot when searching for a winner. The likes of Sam Waley-Cohen, Katie Walsh, the late, great JT McNamara, whom the race is named after, Patrick Mullins and Jamie Codd all appear on the roll of honour in the past 10 years. However, Derek O’Connor’s record in the race is superb and his win on Minella Rocco two years ago took it to 2 wins and 4 placed efforts from 12 rides. He partners No Comment this time around.


    Talking about Minella Rocco, he proved to be a textbook winner from a ‘connections’ point of view. Not only was O’Connor in the plate, but he was owned by JP McManus whose trademark green and gold silks have been carried to victory in this race on no less than 6 separate occasions. No Comment is his only runner in this year’s contest.

    Conversely, Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson both have a wretched record having never saddled a winner. With this in mind, it may be that Reigning Supreme could be best passed over being the only entry from either of these trainers this year.

    Shortlist

    Jury Duty

    Rathvinden

    Sizing Tennessee

    Wearing the colours of JP McManus and having the master Derek O’Connor on board has been a recipe for success in the race for so many years now, meaning that No Comment should be highly respected as joint top of four in the trends table. However, he has only had the one chase start and even though that was a respectable third placed effort in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase, it surely leaves him vulnerable with regards to experience as he would become the only winner this century not to have had at least three runs over fences. His stamina is also not assured in a race where it could become a ‘last man standing’ type of contest, so he’s left off the shortlist despite his connections & jockey.


    At the other end of the spectrum, Colin Tizzard’s Sizing Tennessee has had ten chase starts, including an easy win here over three and a bit miles in soft ground back in December and was a neck second to Yanworth in the 2m5f Grade 2 Dipper Novices’ Chase at this track on heavy ground in January. He handles the track, the ground and is likely to stay, so if his jumping is up to scratch under Irish Point-to-Point champion Barry O’Neill, this classy type could go close at a decent price.


    The Irish challenge is headlined by the Jamie Codd-ridden Jury Duty, who has always shaped as if staying trips on soft ground are his ideal conditions for Gordon Elliott. He’s had five chase starts in good races, so fits the experience and class trends and with Codd on board, he must have a big chance if he sees out the four miles on this bad ground.


    Willie Mullins’ Rathvinden certainly comes with some stamina risks attached, but is a classy sort who has been a little unlucky in his last couple of runs to come down. If his jumping stands up to scrutiny on this heavy ground, he’s definitely got the class to go close as a Grade 3 winner and one-time Ballymore third behind Faugheen. Paddy Mullins rides for his father and he’s a previous winner of the race on Back In Focus in 2013, so he knows what’s required.




    5.30 Cheltenham – The Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Steeple Chase (Listed Race)


    In contrast to the majority of Festival races, the so-called ‘big boys’ haven’t found this race to be a happy hunting ground. Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs and Nicky Henderson are the only trainers you’d class as ‘powerhouses’ to have trained the winner in the 13 runnings so far which gives a boost to Barney Dwan and Mister Whitaker among others who are perceived to be campaigned by ‘smaller’ yards searching for their first Festival winners.

    The market has perhaps proved the best guide to this race in recent years with 10 of the 13 winners coming from the first 5 in the market. Ferdy Murphy’s L’Antartique was the last big-priced winner when obliging at 20/1 in 2007 but on the whole it has paid to focus on those towards the head of the market. Any Second Now, De Plotting Shed, Barney Dwan, Mister Whitaker and Rather Be top the bookies’ boards at the time of writing. Only 2 winners of the race have gone off bigger than 12/1.


    Although we have to remember that this is a contest for novices, I’m sure most of us would be looking to a horse that has had a win over fences prior to arriving at the Festival. However, maiden chasers have an above average record in the main with 31 maidens to have contested the race having a record of 3 wins and 12 places; a boost to the chances of Any Second Now, De Potting Shed and Tycoon Prince.


    Recent renewals have been a handicap in name only as the weight spread is so narrow. This year the gap between the top and bottom weights is 8lb so horses towards the top of the handicap have a good record in recent years. The last 6 winners of the race would have all won at level-weights (based on RPR) so Barney Dwan looks to have a good chance this year. A new trend developing as the quality of the race increases is that the previous 2 winners contested a graded chase , with Tully East becoming the first winner to have run in a Grade 1 over fences last year. There are a number of runners in 2018 who have been involved in a graded chase, including Any Second Now, Tycoon Prince and Testify.

    Shortlist

    Any Second Now

    Tycoon Prince

    Barney Dwan

    Mister Whitaker


    There is a strong Irish challenge for this year’s Close Brothers and they will be hopeful of following up the 2017 victory of the Alan Fleming-trained Tully East. They are represented by the two horses currently vying for favouritism and Any Second Now comes out on top with the trends. He remains a maiden in four runs over fences for Ted Walsh but has contested Grade 1s on his last two runs, finishing third and second in races which were both won by leading Arkle fancy Footpad. Prior to that he had showed good form in two beginners’ chases, finishing runner-up to Festival fancies Invitation Only and Monalee. He looks to have a strong chance in this Listed handicap. De Plotting Shed is towards the top of the market for Gordon Elliott but his lesser-fancied Tycoon Prince should not be underestimated having won a beginners’ chase at Leopardstown at Christmas time in good style. Last time out he fell in the Grade 1 Irish Arkle, in which Any Second Now finished third, so could be a player learning from that mistake. The British challenge is headed by Barney Dwan who has won his last two starts for Fergal O’Brien. He has previous Festival form as he was runner-up to Presenting Percy in last year’s Pertemps Final over hurdles off this mark. Making up the shortlist is the Mick Channon-trained Mister Whitaker, who also has course form having won a novice handicap chase at Cheltenham in January

    2 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (13th March 2018),  ThieF (14th March 2018)  


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    DF Rookie Gram2086's Avatar
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    Default Re: Day 1. The Cheltenham Festival 13/3/2018

    Absolutely immaculate analysis and selections. Thanks so much

    Thanks to Gram2086

    ganjaman2 (14th March 2018)  


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