SPRING JUVENILE HURDLE TRENDS 2014

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The Gala Retail Spring Juvenile Hurdle is the opening race on the Leopardstown card on Sunday, 9th February. Previously run as a grade 2 race, it was elevated to grade 1 status in 2010 and is now one of four grade 1 events on a quality Leopardstown card. It should give some clues towards the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham as in 2012 Countrywide Flame finished 3rd before winning at Cheltenham and last year Our Conor did the doubled up in this race and the Triumph.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age
Race for 4yos

Breeding
10 of 10 winners were flat-bred and were by group-winning stallions

Gender
Fillies (1-0-5) have not had many runners in this, but have won it twice since 2002. The only 2 female runners to go off shorter than 14/1 since 2002 both won (Newhall 2002 & Unaccompanied 2011).

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (6 won)
9 of 10 winners (last 9) posted an RPR of 123+ last time
9 of 10 winners had previously run in 1 to 3 hurdles races
7 of 10 winners had won over hurdles (3 exceptions were placed last time)
9 of 10 winners had run since Christmas
10 of 10 winners had run on the flat
10 of 10 winners were officially rated 69 or higher on the flat (last 5 were rated 81 or higher on flat)

Other Races
Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle winner (Guitar Pete): 32294 (0-2-5)
Paddy Power iPad App 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle winner (Plinth): 5835 (0-1-4)
Nugent Spirit 25 horsebox Hurdle winner (Abbysial): 63475 (0-1-5)
Kerry Ingredients & Flavours 3-Y-O Hurdle winner (Guitar Pete): 0 (0-0-1)
Racegoer's 25 Euro Package 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle winner (Abbyssial): 4 (0-0-1)
4 of 10 winners ran in Festival Hospitality On Sale 3yo Maiden Hurdle, finishing 11d11
2 of 10 winners ran in Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle, finishing 07

Trainers
Willie Mullins (1-4-10) has gained a winner and 4 places from his 10 runners in this.
Dessie Hughes (1-1-8) trained the winner in 2003 and last year, with Our Conor.
Gordon Elliot (0-1-4) trained the runner-up in 2012 but his other 3 runners were all unplaced.

Price
No strong trend on prices, though 4 of last 5 winners went off shorter than 7/2.
Favourites (3-3-10) have a poor record having gained just 3 wins in the last 10 years (including 2 beaten at odds on), giving a level stakes loss of 3.59.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Flat bred, by a group-winning stallion
- Fillies do well
- Has run since Christmas
- Finished in the first 3 last time
- Posted an RPR of 123+ last time
- Run in 1 to 3 hurdles this season
- Won over hurdles or placed on only hurdles start
- Run on the flat and officially rated 80 or higher
- Finished in first 2 Festival Hospitality Juvenile Hurdle.