DELOITTE NOVICE HURDLE TRENDS 2014

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The 2M 2F Grade 1 Deloitte Novice Hurdle takes place at Leopardstown on Sunday 9th February as part of a top class card, which includes no less than four grade 1 contests. This race has thrown three subsequent Supreme Novice Hurdle winners since 2000 and whatever wins this is sure to have a serious chance at Cheltenham.





Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 2-3-19
6yo: 7-7-39
7yo: 1-1-11
8yo: 0-0-1
6yos have won 7 of the last 10 (including 6 of last 7) but they did represent 55.7% of the total runners, so no major trend as far as ages go.
The only 2 horses aged older than 6 to win this in past 15 years have been Dunguib & Like A Butterfly, both had won the Irish grade 1 Champion Bumper & finished in first 2 in Royal Bond.

Gender
Mares (0-0-3) won the race in 2002 & 2003, both winners were multiple graded winners and had won their last 5 races, though all 3 female runners in past 10 years have been unplaced.

Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners won last completed start (3 exceptions 2nd or 3rd in a graded hurdle)
8 of 10 winners posted highest hurdles RPR on last completed start (2 exceptions did so on penultimate run)
7 of 10 winners (last 7) had posted an RPR of 142+ in their last 2 outings
6 of 10 winners had won over 2M 3F+
10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times that season
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run 2 to 4 times over hurdles
7 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 (1 exception was runner-up in a grade 2)
8 of 10 winners had won a bumper (2 exceptions were placed in a bumper)
9 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race at Navan, Punchestown or Leopardstown

Other Races
Future Champion Novices Hurdle winner (The Tullow Tank): 31155 (2-0-5)
Royal Bond Novice Hurdle winner (The Tullow Tank): 2122 (1-3-4)
Corkracecourse.ie Maiden Hurdle winner (Art Of Payroll): 1 (1-0-1)
kieranoconnellracing.com (Pro/Am) INH Flat Race winner (Azorian): 33 (0-1-2)
Leopardstown Sports Lounge Maiden Hurdle winner (Quickpick Vic): 77 (0-0-2)
I.N.H. Stallion Owners EBF Maiden Hurdle winner (Faugheen): 62 (0-0-2)
Highest placed finisher from Navan Novice Hurdle: 245111 (3-1-6)
3 of 10 winners had run in the Future Champions Novice Hurdle, finishing 112
3 of 10 winners ran in the Navan Novice Hurdle, finishing 121
3 of 10 winners ran in the Royal Bond, finishing 312
3 of 10 winners ran in Champion Bumper, finishing 411
2 of 10 winners ran in Punchestown Champion Bumper, finishing 1d1
2 of 10 winners ran in I.N.H. Stallion Owners EBF Maiden Hurdle at Navan in November, finishing 1U
2 of 10 winners ran in www.punchestown.com Maiden Hurdle, finishing 11

Trainers
Willie Mullins (1-3-10) won the race with Champagne Fever last year, though prior to that had not had much luck in this race. Cousin Vinny looked sure to win it for him in 2009 before falling at the last and he had saddled the runner-up in 2010, 2011 & 2012.
Tony Martin (1-1-3) trained Benefficient to win at 50/1 in 2012 and saddled Wingtips to finish 3rd at 14/1 last year.
Philip Fenton (1-0-2) won the race with Dunguib in 2010.
Dessie Hughes (0-1-5) has saddled 1 winner, 3 seconds and a third from 7 runners since 2000.

Price
9 of 10 winners were priced 7/1 or shorter
The first 2 in the betting have been responsible for 7 of last 10 winners but Benefficient was a shock 50/1 winner in 2012.
Favourites (5-3-10) have won 5 of last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 0.13.



Summary:


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:


- Won last completed start (or 2nd/3rd in a graded hurdle)
- Posted a career high RPR of 142+ last time
- Run in 2 to 4 hurdles this season
- Previously won a hurdles race at Punchestown, Navan or Leopardstown
- Won a grade 1 or 2 race under NH rules
- Won over 2M 3F+
- Finished in first 2 in Royal Bond, Navan and/or Future Champions Nov’ Hurdle