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  1. #1
    DF VIP Member ganjaman2's Avatar
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    Default ROYAL ASCOT 2011

    QUEEN ANNE STAKES TRENDS 2011



    The 2011 Royal Ascot meeting begins on Tuesday 14th June and the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes is a superb race to kick the action off for what is five of the best days of flat racing you will see anywhere in the world this year. The race already looks one of the highlights of the week with the likely clash of last year’s winner, Goldikova, and the top 3yo miler from last season, Canford Cliffs.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    3yo: 0-0-1
    4yo: 7-6-56
    5yo: 3-7-30
    6yo+: 0-6-16
    10 of 10 winners were aged 4 or 5
    Not a whole lot to choose between the 4 and 5 year olds, though you have to go back to 1976 for the last winner aged over 5.

    Gender
    Last year Goldikova became first mare to win the since it was upgraded to Pattern status back in 1971
    Eight fillies or mares have run in this in the past decade, finishing 76247321 (1-3-8).
    6 of the 8 mares were sent off at less than 8/1 (4 were favourite)

    Recent/Past Form
    9 of 10 winners won over 1M to 1M 1F (exception had finished 2nd in previous year's St James Palace Stakes)
    9 of 10 winners had had 9 to 17 career starts
    8 of 10 winners (last 7) had won a Group 1
    7 of 8 winners had won a Group 1 since this became a group 1 in 2003 (exception had won a group 2 & was having first start in a group 1)
    9 of 10 winners had had 1 or 2 runs that season (exception had run 3 times)
    9 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days
    0 of 10 winners had won at the course before (only 3 winners had run at the previous year's Festival)

    Other Races
    Previous season's winner (Goldikova): 2 (0-1-1)
    Horses that ran in previous year’s race: 7272500747232 (0-5-15)
    Prix d'Ispahan winner (Goldikova): 8161 (2-0-4)
    Lockinge winner (Canford Cliffs): 172472 (1-2-6)
    Bet365 Mile winner (Dick Turpin): 7900212 (1-2-7)
    Prix de la Foret winner (Goldikova): 21 (1-1-2)
    Prix Rothschild winner (Goldikova): 21 (1-1-2)
    Breeders Cup Mile winner (Goldikova): 61 (1-0-2)
    Premio Vittorio Di Capua winner (Rio De La Plata): 10 (1-0-2)
    Sussex Stakes winner (Canford Cliffs): 36 (0-0-2)
    6 of 10 winners ran in the Lockinge Stakes last time, finishing 148264
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix D'Ipshahan last time, finishing 11
    3 of 10 winners ran in that season's Dubai Duty Free, finishing 088
    3 of 10 winners ran in previous St James Palace Stakes, finishing 352
    3 of 10 winners ran in previous Sussex Stakes, finishing 323
    3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Breeders’ Cup Mile, finishing 901
    2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in previous Prix de la Foret, finishing 13
    Record of horses that ran in the Lockinge that season: 6-9-36
    Record of horses that did not run in the Lockinge: 4-10-67

    Trainers
    British trained runners: 6-16-77
    French trained runners: 2-2-10
    Irish trained runners: 2-1-11 (both winners trained by A O’Brien)
    Any other: 0-0-5
    Saeed Bin Suroor (3-0-10) has won the race 3 times in the past 10 years, most recently in 2007.
    Aidan O’Brien (2-0-9) has trained the winner in 2 of the last 5 years.
    Richard Hannon (1-1-7) and Freddie Head (1-0-2) have saddled the last 2 winners of this race.

    Draw (excluding 2005 when run at York)
    Horses drawn 1 to 3: 4-8-27
    Horses drawn 4 to 6: 0-5-27
    Horses drawn 7 to 9: 2-3-24
    Horses drawn 10 or higher: 3-1-15
    4 of the last 6 winners (at Ascot) were drawn 1 to 3.
    Horses drawn in bottom 3 stalls: 4-8-27
    Horses drawn in middle: 0-6-39
    Horses drawn in top 3 stalls: 5-3-27
    The last 9 winners at Ascot were drawn in the top or bottom 3 stalls. Paco Boy , who was a fast finishing 2nd last year, was probably not helped by being drawn bang in the middle in stall 5.

    Price
    9 of 10 winners went off 7/1 or shorter & came from first 4 in the betting
    Not a race to be looking for a big outsider with all but one of the last 10 winners going off at single figure odds, however no favourite has won the race in the last 10 years.
    Favourites (1-2-11) have gained just 1 win and 2 places since 2001, giving a level stakes profit of 7.63.

    Summary:
    Based on the trends from past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    · Aged 4 or 5
    · Won over 1M to 1M 1F
    · Won a group 1
    · Had 1 or 2 runs in 2011
    · Run in the past 40 days
    · Ran in the Lockinge or Prix D’Isphahan last time out
    · First 3 in Prix de la Foret, James Palace or Sussex Stakes in 2010
    · Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor or Aidan O’Brien
    · Drawn in the top or bottom 3 stalls
    · Price less than 7/1 (avoid the favourite)

  2. #2
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    Default Re: ROYAL ASCOT 2011

    KING'S STAND STAKES TRENDS 2011


    The King’s Stand Stakes is the second race of day 1 of the Royal Ascot meeting. Run over 5 furlongs, it was promoted to a group 1 class in

    2008. Recently the race has been dominated by overseas runners with 6 of the last 7 winners being trained outside of Britain and Ireland.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    3yo: 2-5-35
    4yo: 2-6-41
    5yo: 3-4-40
    6yo: 1-2-28
    7yo+: 2-3-36
    Horses aged 3 or 4 have a combined record of 4-11-76
    Horses aged 5 or older have a record of 6-9-104
    Nothing major to be gleaned from the age stats. Both 3yo winners had won or placed in a group race as 2yos.

    Recent/Past Form
    8 of 10 winners finished in first 2 last time out (6 won)
    9 of 10 winners had won a group race (exception had twice been placed in a group 2)
    5 of 10 winners had won a group 1 sprint (1 exception was 2nd in a group 1, other 4 had not run in a group 1 sprint prior to this)
    9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times that year
    8 of 10 winners had won a race that year
    9 of 10 winners had won over 6F (exception placed on only run at 6F)

    Other Races
    Previous season's winner (Equiano): 7478 (0-0-4)
    King George Stakes winner (Bordlescott): 11006 (2-0-5)
    Temple Stakes winner (Sole Power): 130036 (1-2-6)
    Palace House Stakes winner (Tangerine Trees): 0334001 (1-2-7)
    Sandown Sprint Stakes winner (Triple Aspect): 100 (1-0-3)
    Previous season's Nunthorpe winner (Sole Power): 79053 (0-1-5)
    Previous season's Abbaye winner (Gilt Edge Girl): 0670 (0-0-4)
    Dubai World Trophy winner (Astrophysical Jet): 4070 (0-0-4)
    4 of 10 winners ran in Newmarket Handicap last time, finishing 6111
    4 of 10 winners ran in the Lightning Stakes, finishing 1111
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Oakleigh Plate, finishing 335
    2 of 10 winners ran in Prix Du Gros-Chene last time, finishing 42
    2 of 10 winners ran in Temple Stakes last time, finishing 12
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix De Saint-Georges, finishing 21
    2 of 10 winners ran in the King George Stakes, finishing 11
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Salinger Stakes, finishing 34
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Age Classic, finishing 17
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Palace House Stakes, finishing 21

    Trainers
    British trained runners: 4-16-146
    Australian trained: 4-2-13
    Spanish trained: 1-0-1
    French trained runners: 1-0-6
    Irish trained runners: 0-1-6
    Other: 0-1-8
    Record of horses trained in Britain & Ireland: 4-17-152
    Record of horses trained outside GB & Ireland: 6-3-28
    Australian based trainers (4-2-13) have the best record of the foreign trainers winning 4 of the last 8.
    Mikel Delzangles (1-0-1) and Marcus Tregoning (1-0-2) are the only two trainers with entries to have won the race in the past 10 years.
    Jeremy Noseda (0-2-3) and Henry Candy (0-2-4) have both saddled a couple of placed finishers since 2001.

    Draw (excluding 2005 running at York)
    Horses drawn 1 to 5: 3-11-45
    Horses drawn 6 to 10: 2-4-45
    Horses drawn 11 to 15: 2-2-40
    Horses drawn 16 or higher: 2-1-34
    Bottom 5 stalls: 3-11-45
    Middle stalls: 3-6-74
    Top 5 stalls: 3-2-45
    There is a definite bias to being drawn high or low. Horses drawn in top 5 or bottom 5 stalls have a combined record of 6-13-90, compared

    horses drawn in the middle of 3-6-74.

    Price
    7 of 10 (6 of last 7) winners were sent off 8/1 or shorter
    There have been a few upsets in this race in the past decade with 3 of 10 winners going between 16/1 and 25/1 though in the past 7 years, 6

    of 7 winners came from first 5 in the betting
    Favourites (2-4-11) have won just 2 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 2.25.

    Summary:
    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    · Run 2 to 4 times in 2011 (winning at least once)
    · Finished in first 2 last time out
    · Won over 6F
    · Won a group race (preferably a group 1)
    · First 2 in Prix de Saint-Georges, Palace House and/or King George Stakes
    · Ran in Prix du Gros-Chene, Temple Stakes or Newmarket Handicap last time
    · Trained outside of GB&Ire, especially Australian based
    · Drawn in top 5 or bottom 5 stalls

  3. #3
    DF VIP Member ganjaman2's Avatar
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    Default Re: ROYAL ASCOT 2011

    ST JAMES PALACE STAKES TRENDS 2011



    The St James Palace Stakes is the third group 1 race of day 1. Run over a mile for 3yos only, it brings together horses that have been

    running in the different 2000 Guineas races around Europe, though this year the race will likely revolve around one horse, Frankel.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    Race for 3yos

    Breeding
    8 of 10 winners were by a group 1 winner
    9 of 10 winners were sired by horse that had won all his races over a mile or shorter (exception was sired by Giants Causeway, who won this

    in 2000)
    10 of 10 winners were born before 26th April

    Recent/Past Form
    7 of 10 winners won last time out
    10 of 10 winners ran in last 30 days
    7 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (3 exceptions had finished in the first 3 in a group 1)
    10 of 10 winners had won a group 1 or 2
    9 of 10 winners won first time out as a 2yo (exception was 2nd)
    8 of 10 winners won a group 1 or 2 as a 2yo (both exceptions hadn't run in a group 1 or 2 as a 2yo)

    Guineas Form
    Irish 2000 Guineas winner (Roderic O'Connor): 110715111 (6-0-9)
    English 2000 Guineas winner (Frankel): 14517 (2-0-5)
    French 2000 Guineas winner (Tin Horse): 425135 (1-2-6)
    German 2000 Guineas winner (Excelebration): 4357 (0-1-4)
    8 of 10 winners ran in Irish 2000 Guineas last time, finishing 11021111
    7 of 10 winners ran in English 2000 Guineas, finishing 1234153
    3 of 10 winners ran in French 2000 Guineas, finishing 614
    9 of 10 winners had finished in first two in Irish, French or English 2000 Guineas (exception was 4th in French 2000)

    Other Races
    Dewhurst Stakes winner (Frankel): 17156 (2-0-5)
    Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère winner (Wootton Bassett): 1434 (1-1-4)
    Beresford Stakes winner (Casamento): 1 (1-0-1)
    Phoenix Stakes winner (Zoffany): 81 (1-0-2)
    Craven Stakes winner (Native Khan): 86432 (0-2-5)
    Middle Park Stakes winner (Dream Ahead): 824 (0-1-3)
    Greenham Stakes winner (Frankel): 82 (0-1-2)
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Railway Stakes, finishing 131
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Dewhurst Stakes, finishing 141
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Coventry Stakes, finishing 611
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Morny, finishing 233
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Phoenix Stakes, finishing 21
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Greenham, finishing 22

    Trainers
    Irish trained runners: 6-7-33 (A O'Brien 5-7-27)
    British trained runners: 4-10-52
    French trained runners: 0-2-9
    German trained: 0-1-1
    American-trained: 0-0-1
    Aidan O’Brien (5-7-27) has won 5 of the last 10 runnings of this race (including 3 of the last 4). His first string has a record of 4-3-10.
    Richard Hannon (1-1-6) is the only other trainer with an entry this season to have won the race in the past decade, gaining the 1-2 last

    year.
    Henry Cecil (0-1-1), John Gosden (0-1-3) and Michael Stoute (0-1-4) have all had one placed finisher since 2001.

    Draw (excluding 2005 when run at York)
    Horses drawn 1 to 3: 4-2-27
    Horses drawn 4 to 6: 4-6-27
    Horses drawn 7 or higher: 2-10-34
    No strong trends on the draw.

    Price
    10 of 10 winners were priced 8/1 or below
    This has not been a race for upsets in the past 10 years with the winner coming from the first 4 in the betting in the last 9 years and no

    winner going off bigger than 8/1.
    Favourites (6-2-11) have won 6 of the last 10, including the last 3, giving a level stakes profit of 2.83.

    Summary:
    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    · Sired by a group 1 winner who’d never won over further than 1M
    · Won first time out & won a group race as a 2yo
    · First 3 in the Morny, Coventry, Dewhurst and/or Railway as 2yo
    · Ran in the past 30 days
    · Won last time out
    · Group 1 winner
    · Finished in the first 2 in Ir/Fr/Eng 2000 Guineas
    · Ran in Irish 2000 Guineas last time out
    · Trained by Aidan O’Brien
    · Priced 8/1 or below (favourite does well)

  4. #4
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    Default Re: ROYAL ASCOT 2011

    PRINCE OF WALES'S STAKES TRENDS 2011



    The solitary Group 1 race on Day 2 of the Royal Ascot Festival is the Prince Of Wales Stakes, run over a mile and a quarter for 4yos and

    upwards. Some of the best European middle distance horses of the last decade have won this including Fantastic Light, Azamour, Rakti and

    Ouija Board.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    4yo: 5-13-52
    5yo: 5-4-34
    6yo+: 0-1-8
    10 of 10 winners were aged 4 or 5 although they have accounted for 82 of the 88 runners.
    All five 5yo winners had previously run in the race, finishing 34273.
    Muhtarram in 1996 has been the only horses aged over 5 to win this race in past 30 years, and he had won the race the previous year.

    Gender
    Fillies & mares (1-2-6) have gained 1 win and 2 places from their 6 runners in this race in the past 10 years.

    Recent/Past Form
    9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out
    10 of 10 winners ran in a group 1 over 1M1F to 1M 4F last time
    9 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (exception had won group 2 and was 2nd in group 1 on last start)
    9 of 10 winners had run 1 to 3 times that season
    10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F+
    4 of 10 winners made their seasonal debut at the Dubai Carnival
    4 of 10 winners (last 4) had run in a Longchamp group 1 that year

    Other Races
    Previous season's winner (Byword): 7 (0-0-1)
    Tattersalls Gold Cup winner (So You Think): 1231 (2-1-4)
    Prix Ganay winner (Planteur): 6211 (2-1-4)
    Earl Of Sefton winner (Ransom Note): 2465125 (1-2-7)
    Irish Champion Stakes winner (Cape Blanco): 712 (1-1-3)
    Champion Stakes winner (Twice Over): 2414 (1-1-4)
    Great Voltigeur winner (Rewilding): 2 (0-1-1)
    Irish Derby winner (Cape Blanco): 2 (0-1-1)
    Previous year's Hampton Court Stakes winner (Afsare): 56 (0-0-2)
    Prix d'Harcourt winner (Planteur): 377 (0-0-3)
    Brigadier Gerrard Stakes winner (Workforce): 895 (0-0-3)
    Huxley Stakes winner (Await The Dawn): 597 (0-0-3)
    3 of 10 winners ran in Tattersalls Gold Cup last time, finishing 141
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix D'Ispahan last time, finishing 12
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Sheema Classic, finishing 24
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Queen Elizabeth II Cup, finishing 53
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Ganay, finishing 11
    4 of 10 winners ran in previous Prince Of Wales, finishing 4273
    2 of 10 winners ran in previous St James Palace, finishing 12
    3 of 10 winners ran in previous International Stakes, finishing 214
    2 of 10 winners ran in previous Irish Champion Stakes, finishing 21
    2 of 10 winners ran in previous Champion Stakes, finishing 13
    2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Hong Kong Cup, finishing 12


    Trainers
    British trained runners: 5-11-68
    French trained runners: 3-3-12
    Irish trained runners: 2-3-9
    Other: 0-0-5
    Irish and French trained runners have a combined record of 5-6-21, which compared well to British based runners’ record of 5-11-68.
    Andre Fabre (2-1-4) has gained 2 wins (2007 & 2010) and 2 thirds from his 4 runners in the past 10 years.
    Saeed Bin Suroor (2-1-11) trained the first 3 winners since the turn of the century but has not won it since 2002.
    Aidan O’Brien (1-3-8) has trained 1 winner and 3 placed finishers from 8 runners since 2001.
    Michael Stoute (0-3-8) and Henry Cecil (0-2-3) have both saddled multiple placed horses.

    Price
    10 of 10 winners were priced 8/1 or below & came from first 4 in the betting
    Not a race to be looking for a big outsider with only 4 horses priced above 8/1 making the places in the past 10 years.
    Favourites (4-3-10) have won 4 of the last 6 and show a level stakes profit of 0.75 over the past 10 years.

    Summary:
    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    · Aged 4 (or a 5yo that ran in the race last year)
    · Finished in first 3 in group 1 over 1M 1F+ last time
    · Run 1 to 3 times this season
    · Won over at least 1M 2F
    · Won a group 1
    · Ran at Longchamp or Meydan this year
    · First 3 in the Tattersalls Gold Cup or Prix D’Ispahan last time
    · From the first 4 in the betting
    · Trained in France or Ireland
    · Trained by Andre Fabre or Aidan O’Brien

  5. #5
    DF VIP Member ganjaman2's Avatar
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    Default Re: ROYAL ASCOT 2011

    ROYAL HUNT CUP TRENDS 2011


    The Royal Hunt Cup is the highlight of day 2 of Royal Ascot. It’s a handicap run over a mile for 3yos and upwards and the field often

    consists of over 30 runners so it’s no mean feat finding the winner.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    4yo: 5-18-135
    5yo: 4-5-64
    6yo: 1-4-43
    7yo+: 0-3-42
    9 of 10 winners were aged 4 or 5, they represented approximately 70% of the total runners.
    Horses aged 6 or above have a very poor record in this race (1-7-87)

    Weight
    Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 0-3-30
    Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 5-5-68
    Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 5-13-106
    Horses carrying 8-6 or less: 0-9-80
    10 of 10 winners carried between 8-8 and 9-5
    Horses carrying a penalty: 06203100404025008 (1-5-18)
    Top Weight: 0000003097 (0-1-10)

    Official Ratings
    Horses rated 100 or more: 4-6-84
    Horses rated 90 to 99: 6-19-148
    Horses rated 89 or less: 0-5-52
    10 of 10 winners were officially rated between 91 and 105

    Recent/Past Form
    9 of 10 winners ran in last 45 days
    8 of 10 winners had finished in first 2 at least once that season
    5 of 10 winners won last time out
    10 of 10 winners had posted highest RPR in 1 of last 3 starts
    9 of 10 winners had won class 3 or better (exception 2nd in class 2)
    9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won over a mile
    7 of 10 winners had run in 9 or fewer handicaps
    9 of 10 winners had won 3 or fewer handicaps

    Other Races
    Previous season's winner (Invisible Man): 070 (0-0-3)
    Suffolk Stakes winner (Green Destiny): 4 (0-1-1)
    Epsom Investec Mile winner (Dance And Dance): 04 (0-1-2)
    Thirsk hunt Cup winner (Justonefortheroad): 02600 (0-1-5)
    Spring Cup winner (Light From Mares): 8070 (0-0-4)
    Spring Mile winner (Eton Forever): 00 (0-0-2)
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Spring Cup, finishing 362
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Lincoln, finishing 620
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Victoria Cup, finishing 19
    2 of 10 (2 of last 4) ran in the NDB Cup at Ascot in July, finishing 54
    2 of 10 winners ran in Abu Dhabi International Stakes, finishing 06
    2 of 10 winners ran in previous Buckingham Palace Stakes, finishing 34

    Trainers
    John Gosden (1-1-4), Saeed Bin Suroor (1-0-3, Richard Hannon (1-0-6), Ed Dunlop (1-0-8) and Jeremy Noseda (1-0-9) are the only trainers

    with entries this year to have won the race in the past decade.
    Clive Brittain (0-4-10) has gained 4 places from his 10 runners in the past 10 years while Andrew Balding (0-2-9) has gained 2 places since

    2001, including the runner-up last year.
    None of the 9 Irish trainer runners (0-0-9) have made the frame in this.

    Draw (excluding 2005 when run at York)
    Horses drawn 1 to 10: 6-18-100
    Horses drawn 11 to 20: 2-3-100
    Horses drawn 21 or higher: 1-6-84
    Lower draws have had much the better of it recently, with the last 8 winners at Ascot coming from stall 14 or lower.
    At least one horse drawn 1 to 5 (3-15-45) has made the places every year in the past decade and in past 5 years horses drawn 1 to 5 have a

    record of 3-9-25.

    Price
    No strong trends on the prices. Prior to 2009 there had been no winning favourite since 1996. There have been 3 winners priced between 25/1

    & 28/1 in the past 10 years but the majority of the winners have been priced 14/1 or shorter.
    Favourites (1-1-11) have gained 1 win and 1 place from 11 runners (level stakes loss of 5.00 over the past 10 years).

    Summary:
    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    · Aged 4 or 5
    · Carrying 8-8 to 9-5
    · Officially rated between 91 and 105
    · Won over a mile
    · Ran in last 45 days
    · Finished in the first 2 at least once this season
    · Posted highest RPR in last 3 starts
    · Won at class 3 or higher
    · Placed in class 2 handicap or better
    · Run in 9 or fewer handicaps (having won no more than 3)
    · Finished in first 6 in Spring Cup and/or Lincoln
    · Trained in Britain
    · Drawn 14 or lower (ideally in stalls 1 to 5)

  6. #6
    DF VIP Member ganjaman2's Avatar
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    Default Re: ROYAL ASCOT 2011

    ASCOT GOLD CUP TRENDS 2011


    The Ascot Gold Cup is the highlight of day 3 and for many the whole Royal Ascot meeting. A group 1 run over 2M 4F for 4 year olds and

    upwards, it has dominated by the Irish recently, with Yeats winning four in a row from 2006 to 2009 and Rite Of Passage landing the prize

    last year.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    4yo: 2-6-43
    5yo: 2-3-30
    6yo: 4-4-20
    7yo+: 2-7-33
    Record of 4 & 5 year olds: 4-9-73
    Record of horses aged 6+: 6-11-53
    Horses aged 6 have done best, winning 5 of the 11 renewals since the turn of the century.
    It’s worth noting that in the past 60 years only 2 horses aged over 6 have managed to win this: Drum Taps in 1993 (won the race the

    previous year) and Yeats in 2008 & 2009 (having won it in 2006 & 2007).
    Both 4yos winners finished 5th in a Classic the year before (French Derby and English St Leger).

    Gender
    Fillies & mares (0-0-5) have failed to fill one place from 5 representatives however all 5 female runners went off at 12/1 or bigger.

    Recent/Past Form
    9 of 10 winners had run 1 to 3 times that year
    8 of 10 winners had run in the past 55 days
    6 of 10 winners won their last flat start
    7 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (2 of 3 exceptions had won a group 2 and other was unbeaten on the flat)
    9 of 10 winners had won over 2M+ (exception Yeats in 06 was having first try over further than 1M 6F)

    Other Races
    Previous season's winner (Rite Of Passage): 1760111 (4-0-6)
    Vintage Crop Stakes winner (Fame And Glory): 11 (2-0-2)
    Prix Vicomtesse Vigier winner (Brigantin): 31637 (1-2-5)
    Saval Beg Stakes winner (Fame And Glory): 23P16 (1-2-5)
    Lonsdale Cup winner (Opinion Poll): 160 (1-0-3)
    Jockey Club Cup winner (Tastahil): 22P0 (0-2-4)
    Prix de Lutece winner (Brigantin): 3 (0-1-1)
    Sagaro Stakes winner (Askar Tau): 5002 (0-1-4)
    Yorkshire Cup winner (Duncan): 556020 (0-1-6)
    Further Flight Stakes winner (The Betchworth Kid): 005 (0-0-3)
    5 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Gold Cup, finishing 12111
    5 of 10 winners ran in previous Prix Du Cadran, finishing 34135
    4 of 10 winners ran in previous Goodwood Cup, finishing 1611
    4 of 10 winners ran in previous Prix Royal Oak, finishing 5111
    4 of 4 British winners ran in Henry II Stakes last time, finishing 9811
    3 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Irish St Leger, finishing 421
    3 of 10 winners (all Yeats) ran in Vintage Crop Stakes, finishing 116

    Racing Style
    8 of 10 winners raced prominently, tracking the leader(s)
    The majority of winners raced in the first 4, only Yeats (who was settled in 8th) in 2007 and Mr Dinos (dwelt at the start and held up in

    rear) in 2003, came from further back to win.

    Trainers
    Irish trained runners: 5-3-15 (4 of 5 wins were Yeats)
    British trained runners: 4-13-100 (all 4 winners ran Henry II last time)
    French trained runners: 1-3-7 (all 7 ran in Prix Vicomtesse Vigier)
    German trained: 0-1-2
    Other: 0-0-4
    The last 5 winners were trained in Ireland, though Yeats accounted for 4 of those.
    Aidan O’Brien (4-1-8) has trained Yeats to win the race from 2006 to 2009 & he saddled Age Of Aquarius to take runners-up spot last year.
    Dermot Weld (1-2-4) won the race with Rite Of Passage in 2010 and 2 of his 3 other runners in past 10 years made the frame.
    Saeed Bin Suroor (1-1-21) last trained the winner in 2004 but his 12 runners since then have all been unplaced.
    Jamie Osbourne (0-3-3) has saddled Geordieland to be placed in the race on all 3 times he’s run in it while Andre Fabre (0-2-2) has seen

    his 2 runners both make first 3.

    Price
    8 of 10 winners were 8/1 or shorter & came from first 4 in betting
    Rite Of Passage at 20/1 last year and Royal Rebel at 16/1 in 2002 have been the two upsets in the past 10 years, other than that the

    winners have come from the top 4 in the market.
    Favourites (4-2-10) have won 4 of the last 10 (4 of last 6) and show a level stakes loss of 0.75 over the past 10 years.

    Summary:
    Based on the trends from past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    · Aged 4 to 6 (or won the race last year)
    · Avoid fillies and mares
    · Run 1 to 3 times this season
    · Won last flat start
    · Won a group 1
    · Won over 2M+
    · Tends to race prominently
    · Finished in the first 2 in the Gold Cup last year
    · Won or placed in Prix Royal Oak, Prix Du Cadran, Goodwood Cup or Irish Leger last season
    · Ran in the Vintage Crop or Henry II Stakes this season
    · Trained in Ireland or France
    · Trained by O’Brien, Weld or Fabre

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    Default Re: ROYAL ASCOT 2011

    CORONATION STAKES TRENDS 2011



    The Coronation Stakes is the only group 1 on day 4 of the Royal Ascot meeting. Run over a mile for 3yo fillies, it brings together the best

    female milers of this year’s Classic generation

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    Race for 3yos

    Breeding
    8 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner over 7F to 9F (exceptions were sired by Jersey Stakes winner Indian Ridge and Derby winner

    Galileo)
    10 of 10 winners were born in January, February or March

    Recent/Past Form
    10 of 10 winners won on one of their first two starts as a 2yo
    4 of 10 winners won last time out (5 of 6 others finished in the first 5 in a Classic)
    10 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days
    10 of 10 winners had won a group race
    5 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (4 others made first 3 in group 1)
    8 of 10 winners had won a group race over 7F or 8F (both exceptions had won a sales race worth 130K+ over 7-8F)
    7 of 10 winners had won a race worth 95K+ (3 exceptions had finished 2nd in a race worth 85K+)

    1000 Guineas
    Irish 1000 Guineas winner (Misty For Me): 01087 (1-0-5)
    Eng 1000 Guineas highest placed finisher: 5311698413 (3-2-10)
    7 of 10 winners ran in English 1000 Guineas, finishing 1120561
    3 of 10 winners ran in Irish 1000 Guineas last time out, finishing 155
    2 of 10 winners ran in French 1000 Guineas, finishing 23
    9 of 10 winners finished in first 6 in English, Irish or French 1000 Guineas (exception was 12th in the English 1000)

    Other Races
    Queen Mary Stakes winner (Maqaasid): 172 (1-1-3)
    Lowther Stakes winner (Hooray): 812066 (1-1-6)
    Musidora Stakes winner (Joviality): 41 (1-0-2)
    Prix de Sandringham winner (Immortal Verse): 10 (1-0-2)
    Cheveley Park winner (Hooray): 01 (1-0-2)
    Cherry Hinton winner (Memory): 10 (1-0-2)
    Prestige Stakes winner (Theyskens Theory): 019 (1-0-3)
    Rockfel winner (Cape Dollar): 919854 (1-0-6)
    Nell Gwynn winner (Barefoot Lady): 0429624 (0-2-7)
    Moyglare Stud Stakes winner (Misty For Me): 037 (0-1-3)
    Leop 1000 Guineas Trial winner (Empowering): 7634 (0-1-4)
    Prix Marcel Boussac winner (Misty For Me): 86 (0-0-2)
    Michael Seely Memorial winner (Theyskens Theory): 880 (0-0-3)
    Oh So Sharp Stakes winner (Havant): 400 (0-0-3)
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Cheveley Park Stakes, finishing 221
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Lowther Stakes, finishing 212
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Princess Margaret Stakes, finishing 134
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Cherry Hinton Stakes, finishing 14
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Queen Mary, finishing, 21
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Fillies Mile, finishing 21
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Moyglare Stud Stakes, finishing 33

    Trainers
    British trained runners: 6-14-76
    Irish trained runners: 3-3-27
    French trained runners: 1-2-9
    German trained: 0-1-3
    Other: 0-0-1
    Aidan O’Brien (2-1-15) gained 2 winners from his 15 runners in this since 2001, including last year’s victor, Lillie Langtry.
    John Gosden (1-5-8) has seen all 6 of his runners that were priced shorter than 10/1 make the places.
    Richard Hannon (1-1-2), Jim Bolger (1-1-3) and Michael Stoute (1-1-7) have each saddled a winner and a placed finisher in the past decade.
    Mick Channon (0-3-8) has seen 3 of his 8 runners make the places.

    Draw (excluding 2005 when run at York)
    Horses drawn in bottom 3 stalls: 4-3-27
    Horses drawn in middle: 2-11-52
    Horses drawn in top 3 stalls: 3-4-27
    7 of the last 9 winners at Ascot were drawn in top or bottom 3 stalls.

    Price
    10 of 10 winners were priced 8/1 or below
    This has not been a race for upsets in the past 10 years with the winner coming from the first 4 in the betting every year in the last 10

    and no winner going off bigger than 8/1.
    Favourites (6-2-13) have won 6 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 7.57.

    Summary:
    Based on trends from past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    · Born before 01/04/2008
    · Sired by a group 1 winner over 7F to 9F
    · Won 1 of first 2 races as a 2yo
    · Ran in Princess Margaret, Cheveley Park or Lowther Stakes as 2yo
    · Ran in the past 50 days
    · Won a group race over 7F or 8F
    · Finished in first 3 in a group 1
    · Won a race worth 95K+
    · Ran in the English 1000 Guineas
    · First 6 in English, Irish or French 1000 Guineas
    · Trained by Gosden, O’Brien, Hannon or Bolger
    · Drawn in top or bottom 3 stalls
    · Priced 8/1 or below (favourite particularly favoured)

  8. #8
    DF VIP Member ganjaman2's Avatar
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    Default Re: ROYAL ASCOT 2011

    GOLDEN JUBILEE STAKES TRENDS 2011




    The Golden Jubilee Stakes (formerly the Cork And Orrery) is the second group 1 sprint of the meeting. Run over a furlong further than the 5F King’s Stand, it has often paid to look for horses that were finishing well, late on, in the King’s Stand on the Tuesday.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    3yo: 2-7-36
    4yo: 3-6-40
    5yo: 1-3-38
    6yo+: 4-4-59
    The ages of the winners have been fairly well spread out.
    3yos won the race in 2008 & 2009 and what they had in common was they both finished in the first 2 in a 2yo sprint at Royal Ascot and finished in the first 2 in group 1 sprint as a juvenile.

    Gender
    Fillies & mares (0-3-18) have a poor record in this race, gaining no wins and 3 places from 18 runners. Their 18 runners included 6 priced less than 7/1 and 3 were sent off favourite or joint favourite.

    Recent/Past Form
    9 of 10 winners had run in last 40 days
    10 of 10 winners had won at listed level or above (7 of last 8 won a group race)
    6 of 10 winners had already won that year
    9 of 10 winners had won over 6F (exception had only run over 5F)
    6 of 10 winners ran at the previous year's Royal Ascot (5 of those finished in first 2)
    4 of last 8 winners ran in the King's Stand earlier that week
    8 of 10 winners had finished in the first 5 in a group 1 over 5F or 6F (both exceptions had yet to run in a group 1 sprint)

    Other Races
    Previous Wokingham winner (Laddies Poker Two): 11770 (2-0-5)
    King's Stand winner: 130 (1-1-3)
    Previous season's Nunthorpe winner (Sole Power): 1 (1-0-1)
    Cammidge Trophy winner (Jimmy Styles): 10 (1-0-2)
    Leisure Stakes winner (Bated Breath): 10040 (1-0-5)
    Surrey Stakes winner (Hooray): 2 (0-1-1)
    Cheveley Park Stakes winner (Hooray): 2 (0-1-1)
    Abernant Stakes winner (Genki): 00038 (0-1-5)
    Bengough Stakes winner (Bewitched): 020746 (0-1-6)
    Goldene Peitsche winner (Amico Fritz): 76 (0-0-2)
    Haydock Sprint Cup winner (Markab): 80 (0-0-2)
    Middle Park Stakes winner (Dream Ahead): 950 (0-0-3)
    Diadem Stakes winner (Lady Of The Desert): 400 (0-0-3)
    Duke Of York winner (Delegator): 86800009 (0-0-8)
    4 of 10 winners ran in the King's Stand last time, finishing 1400
    4 of 10 winners ran in the Duke Of York, finishing 0035
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Lightning Stakes, finishing 134
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Oakleigh Plate, finishing 31
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Newmarket H'cap, finishing 63
    2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Nunthorpe, finishing 91
    2 of 10 winners ran in previous Haydock Sprint Cup, finishing 54
    2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Wokingham, finishing 11

    Trainers
    British trained: 7-13-133
    Australian trained: 1-2-8
    Hong Kong trained: 1-1-4
    Irish trained: 1-1-14
    American trained: 0-2-4
    French trained: 0-1-7
    Other: 0-0-3
    Jeremy Noseda (1-1-5) and Aidan O’Brien (1-1-8) have each saddled the winner and a placed finisher in past 10 years.
    Roger Charlton (1-0-2) is the only other trainer with an entrant to have won this race since 2001.
    Richard Hannon (0-3-7), James Fanshawe (0-2-4) and Saeed Bin Suroor (0-2-9) have each had multiple placed finishers in the past 10 years.
    American-trainer Wesley Ward (0-1-1) has saddled just one previous runner in this race, Cannonball, who finished a neck runner-up in 2009.

    Draw
    Bottom 5 stalls: 4-8-45
    Middle stalls: 2-7-68
    Top 5 stalls: 3-3-45
    Horses drawn in top or bottom 5 stalls have a combined record of 7-11-90, which compares well to horses drawn in the middle of 2-7-68.

    Price
    6 of 10 winners were priced between 6/1 and 12/1
    There have been a few upsets in this race recently with 3 of the last 5 winners going off 20/1 or bigger.
    Favourites (1-3-11) have gained just 1 win in the past 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 6.25.

    Summary:
    Based on trends from past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    · Colt or gelding
    · Ran in past 40 days
    · Won over 6F
    · Won a group race
    · Finished in the first 5 in a group 1 sprint
    · Ran in the King’s Stand and/or Duke Of York this year
    · First 4 in Oakleigh Plate, Newmarket H’cap or Lightning Stakes
    · Previously finished in the first 2 at Royal Ascot
    · Drawn in top or bottom 5 stalls

  9. #9
    DF VIP Member ganjaman2's Avatar
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    Default Re: ROYAL ASCOT 2011

    WOKINGHAM STAKES TRENDS 2011


    The Wokingham Stakes is the big handicap on the final day of Royal Ascot. Run over 6 furlongs for 3yos and older, it is always a hotly


    contested race and there have been plenty tight finishes in the past few years (including a dead heat in 2003). We’re guaranteed a big


    field and it’s worth watching out for draw clues in the big field sprints earlier in the week.


    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:


    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    3yo: 0-1-5
    4yo: 5-10-81
    5yo: 5-7-69
    6yo+: 1-11-112
    Horses aged 5 or younger: 10-18-155
    Horses aged 6 or older: 1-11-112

    Weights
    Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 1-7-42
    Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 5-16-117
    Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 4-5-98
    Horses carrying 8-6 or less: 1-1-10
    9 of 11 winners carried between 8-11 to 9-6

    Official Ratings
    Horses rated 103 to 111: 1-7-48
    Horses rated 93 to 102: 8-19-164
    Horses rated 84 to 92: 2-3-55
    8 of 11 winners were officially rated 95 to 102

    Recent/Past Form
    9 of 11 winners won or placed last time out (2 exceptions were 6th in a listed or group race)
    6 of 11 winners posted a career high RPR last time out
    9 of 11 winners had run 1 to 4 times that season
    10 of 11 winners had run in last 50 days
    11 of 11 winners had won over 6 of 7 furlongs
    9 of 11 winners had won a class 2 or better (two exceptions were 2nd in a listed and a class 2 handicap)
    9 of 11 winners had won no more than twice in handicap company

    Other Races
    Prix Aly Khan winner (Spectacle Du Mars): 1 (1-0-1)
    Victoria Cup winner (Hawkeyethenoo): 1 (1-0-1)
    City Wall Stakes winner (Blue Jack): 40 (0-1-2)
    Coral Sprint Trophy winner (Fathsta): 040 (0-1-3)
    Sportingbet.com Stakes winner (Hoof It): 0309 (0-1-4)
    Al Rayan Handicap winner (Pastoral Player): 00020 (0-1-5)
    Chipchase Stakes winner (Barney McGrew): 00 (0-0-2)
    Investec Bank Handicap winner (Swiss Cross): 0009 (0-0-4)
    3 of 10 winners ran in totesport.com Challenge Cup, finishing 200
    2 of 10 winners ran in Victoria Cup, finishing 51

    Trainers
    Dandy Nicholls (1-2-35), William Haggas (1-1-4), Hughie Morrison (1-1-5) have all gained 1 winner and a placed finisher from their runners


    in the past 10 years.
    Andrew Balding (1-0-2) and Tim Easterby (1-0-3) are the only other 2 trainers with entries to have saddled the winner since 2001.
    Richard Fahey (0-2-8) has saddled a placed finisher in 2 of the last 3 years.

    Draw (excluding 2005) draw positions now reversed
    Horses drawn in bottom 10 stalls: 6-7-90
    Horses drawn in middle: 1-5-70
    Horses drawn in top 10 stalls: 3-14-90
    The last 5 winners were drawn within 6 stalls of one of the rails.
    The only horse to win from the middle was Fayr Jag who dead-heated in 2003 and in retrospect he was probably well ahead of the handicapper


    that day considering he won listed and group 3 in his next 4 runs and won the group 1 Golden Jubilee over same C&D the following year.
    The Golden Jubilee at 3.45 (the race before) which is run over the same course and distance should also gives us clues as to the best draw.


    Last year only 1 stall separated where the 2 winners were drawn.

    Price
    7 of 11 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
    No major trend on the prices with 3 winners going off 20/1+ and 4 favourites winning.
    Favourites (4-1-10) have done well in the last 10 years, winning the race 4 times and giving a level stakes profit of 13.75.

    Summary:
    Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    · Aged 4 or 5
    · Carrying 8-11 to 9-6
    · Officially rated 95 to 102
    · Run 1 to 4 times this season
    · Won or placed on last start (or unplaced in listed/group race)
    · Had last run in past 50 days
    · Won over 6F or 7F
    · Previously won no more than 2 handicaps
    · Won at class 2 level or higher
    · Drawn within 6 stalls of near or far side rail
    · First 4 in the betting (favourite does well)

  10. #10
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    Roach-Rampino's Avatar
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    Default Re: ROYAL ASCOT 2011

    Cheers for al this mate; I am going on Weds 15th for the day (taking customers) so will place a few bets.

  11. #11
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    Default Re: ROYAL ASCOT 2011

    any chance of the coventry trends pal?
    "Your proposition may be good. But let's have one thing understood
    Whatever it is, I'm against it! And even when you've changed it Or condensed it
    I'm against it!"
    A top man

  12. #12
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    Default Re: ROYAL ASCOT 2011

    Junior is in with a shout. Gonna stick a fair bit on that one. Been betting on a Lucky 15 bet. Doing ok.

  13. #13
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    Default Re: ROYAL ASCOT 2011

    my donkey
    4-25 ascot -hoof-it


    very much improved of late,who gives the impression that he's one of the most improved sprinters around and can take a 6lb rise for his latest smooth York success in his stride.
    posted this early due to work at 3am


    £10 e/way


    not a tip or info just one i like

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