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  1. #1
    DF VIP Member ganjaman2's Avatar
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    Info BETFAIR HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2012

    The Betfair Hurdle (formerly the Totesport Trophy) is one of the major handicap hurdles on the British national hunt calendar and takes place at Newbury on Saturday 11th February. The race is generally won by a less exposed hurdler and the past 2 winners were both novices. The race has been abandoned twice in past 6 years but hopefully the race goes ahead this year and we get to see Zarkandar return to action.


    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings (2000-2011):


    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    4yo: 0-0-1
    5yo: 4-14-56
    6yo: 3-7-59
    7yo: 2-3-49
    8yo: 0-2-19
    9yo: 1-1-19
    10yo+: 0-3-9
    5 to 7 year olds have taken 9 of the last 10 (from just over 77% of total runners) with the one exception being when Geos won the race for a second time as a 9yo.
    The last 5 winners have all been aged 5 or 6.

    Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
    Horses carrying 10-10 or more: 3-15-88
    Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 7-15-124
    6 of the last 7 winners (including the last 4) carried 10-9 or less to victory.
    All 3 horses to carry 10-10+ to victory in this race had finished 1st or 2nd in either the Boylesports.com H’cap Hurdle (formerly the Pierse/MCR) on previous start or in this race the previous year.

    Official Ratings
    Horses rated 145 or more: 1-4-31
    Horses rated 131 to 144: 7-21-138
    Horses rated 130 or lower: 2-5-43
    Horses officially rated 131 to 144 have won 7 of the last 10 from approximately 65% of the runners, so no strong trend here.

    Recent/Past Form
    8 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (5 won)
    9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in 1 of their last 2 hurdles starts (exception was Geos when winning race for second time)
    8 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 or better handicap hurdle last time (2 exceptions were novice hurdlers that had run just 3 times)
    10 of 10 winners had run no more than 6 times since August
    9 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap hurdles
    10 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap hurdles
    9 of 10 winners had run in 15 or fewer hurdles (exception was Geos' second win in this)
    8 of 10 winners were first or second season hurdlers (2 exceptions Geos and Copeland had previously finished 1st and 2nd in the race)
    7 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a hurdles race worth 16K+ (3 exceptions had all run in just 3 hurdles races and won last time out)
    10 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race with 11+ runners

    Other Races
    Bavaria Imported Premium Lager H'cap Hurdle winner (Ubi Ace): 2102 (1-2-4)
    Sportingbet Conditional Jockeys' H’cap Hurdle winner (Empire Levant): 1 (1-0-1)
    Boylesports.com H'cap Hurdle winner (Citizenship): 71 (1-0-2)
    Anniversary 4yo Hurdle winner (Zarkandar): 703 (0-1-3)
    Triumph Hurdle winner (Zarkandar): 05 (0-0-2)
    The Ladbroke winner (Raya Star): P0P (0-0-3)
    32Red Handicap Hurdle winner (Ciceron): 807 (0-0-3)
    4 of 10 winners ran in the Bavaria Imported Premium Lager H'cap Hurdle, finishing 3173
    3 of 10 winners ran in Boylesports.com H'cap Hurdle last time, finishing 251
    3 of 10 winners ran in Stellar Football End of Transfer Window H'cap Hurdle last time, finishing 119

    Trainers
    Nicky Henderson (3-4-29) has won 3 of the past 10 runnings, though his last winner was in 2004 and his 15 runners since then have produced 0 wins and just 2 places.
    Gary Moore (2-1-8) trained the winner in 2 of the last 3 years he’s been represented.
    Jessica Harrington (1-0-1) and Jonjo O’Neill (1-0-7) are the only other 2 trainers with entries to have won it since 2000.
    Philip Hobbs (0-7-16) hasn’t won any of the last 10 runnings but has seen 10 of his 16 runners finishing in the top 6, 7 getting placed.
    David Pipe (0-3-8) and Alan King (0-2-7) accounted for the 3 of the first 4 home in 2010 and 2 of the first 4 home last year.
    Irish trained runners (2-2-28) have provided 2 of last 10 winners from approximately 13% of total runners. Both Irish winners ran in Boylesports.com H’cap Hurdle on previous start.

    Price
    No strong trend on prices though 5 of the last 7 winners went off at 12/1 or bigger including a 50/1 winner in 2007.
    Favourites (2-4-11) have won 2 of the last 10 & show a level return to a unit stake.

    Summary:
    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    · Aged 5 to 7
    · Carrying 10-9 or less (or previously finished in first 2 in this or Boylesport.com H’dl)
    · Finished in first 3 last time in a class 2 or better hurdle (or a novice hurdler)
    · First or second season hurdler
    · Run in 6 or fewer handicap hurdles (won no more than 2)
    · Won or placed in a big h'cap hurdle this season (or run in 3 or fewer hurdles races)
    · Won a hurdle with 11+ runners in it
    · Finished in first 5 in Boylesports.com or Stellar Football H’cap Hurdle last time
    · Finished in first 3 in Bavaria Imported Premium Lager H'cap Hurdle
    · Trained by Nicky Henderson Gary Moore or Philip Hobbs

  2. #2
    DF VIP Member ganjaman2's Avatar
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    Default Re: BETFAIR HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS 2012

    The Betfair Hurdle is shaping up to be a very fascinating race (fingers crossed it goes ahead!), however from a betting perspective I'm not convinced I'd want to be getting heavily involved. I think once again this season we may see another Saturday 2m handicap with a large field yet no pace. 80% of the horses entered are hold up horses with only a handful of horses that like to be prominent and only 1 front runner I note:
    Marsh Warbler. Last time this animal had his own way in front was in The Ladbroke and that day many fancied horses pulled hard and didn't perform as they were capable of. Marsh Warbler finished a close fifth that day and I'd be surprised if his connections would go any faster in the Betfair if condition were similar.

    Personally, I couldn't be on Zarkander at 10/3. He will have no doubt improved from his Triumph with last March and it's hard to see him not finishing in the placings, but in a handicap this competitive and with potentially no pace he will have to be close to 100% to win this. Of course he could hack up, but many of these good things have been beaten in the past and at the price I'd be in no rush to back him.

    I also think Darlan represents awful value at at low as 13/2 in places! He runs off a mark of 146 (which the bha have since adjusted to 143), but personally I think his 136 racing post rating is a more accurate indication of what he has achieved so far. He had to fight hard to beat 120 rated High Storm by a nose at Cheltenham and even his race after when beating Jump City comfortably doesn't look great as that horse tailed off in a handicap next time out. He'd have to improve 10lbs just to run to his mark and then probably a further 10lbs to win the race. Can he improve 20lbs in a month? I don't think even Henderson is capable of that.

    However, Henderson's other runner Soldatino is interesting. He looks as if he's been lay out for this race for some time and as it's been almost a year since he was last seen. He will no doubt have improved since then. He was only 2 lengths behind Recession Proof in this race last year and runs off the same mark this time. Henderson will no doubt have him 100% and with Geraghty likely to be onboard you'd expect a good run. 20/1 on the exchanges looks quite a nice price.

    Another horse that looks to have a very strong chance is Raya Star who won lto in The Ladbroke. The race wasn't run to suit and he will improve when running in a properly run race. However, I'm not convinced he'll get that in the on Saturday Betfair so he's one I'll keep in the notebook for another day. The horse who finished ahead of him in his previous race is the relatively unexposed Empire Levant who also appears to have place claims. He is, however, the stables second choice which is clearly a negative when trying to pick a winner and with Daryl taking over from Harry Derham he's effectively carrying 19lbs more than he did when second to Rock on Ruby last time. I think that will be hard to defy.

    The final two horses on my shortlist are Olofi and THIRD INTENTION. These two horse make the most appeal to me from a betting perspective. Both ran good races in the Greatwood hurdle, with the former finishing finishing stronger than any other horse and the latter going the strongest with 2 furlongs to go and then hitting the last hurdle and not finding a great deal. Olofi was strongly fancied at Newbury last time and was traveling powerfully when he fell 3 out. Looking back at replays I think as soon as Brennan had asked the question he'd have drawn clear and won easily. That doesn't look the strongest race, but the horse is no doubt ahead of the handicapper at present and it would be no surprise to see him win. Third Intention also ran a good race after when second to Ranjaan off top weight. Ranjaan looked thrown in at the weights that day and the pair were 11 lengths clear of the next horse so that could turn out to be very good form. Tizzards mount posted his highest RPR (151) that day and his official rating will go up 4 to 146 after the Betfair Hurdle. It's also worth pointing out that the ground was softer than Third Intention would've liked that day and he was getting pushed along after the 6th before coming back onto the bridle later. If the horse travels as he did at Chetenham and still has something to give at the end he stands a fantastic chance. 16/1 looks a generous price.

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