aintree 3 day meeting trends [excluding grand national]

[ganjaman2]

i know the main race at aintree is the grand national but there are some good races on the build up to the big race its self so i will put some trends up for those races i will start with



AINTREE BOWL CHASE TRENDS 2012



The Betfred Bowl Steeplechase is one of three grade 1 races featuring on the opening day of the 2012 Aintree Festival, which kicks off on Thursday 12th April. The 3M 1F chase was upgraded to grade 1 status in 2010 and so will attract a good few of this year’s Gold Cup protagonists. In the last 4 years, Kauto Star, Denman, Imperial Commander & Denman, again, have all been beaten in this after running well in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. It can often pay to oppose horses that had a hard race at Cheltenham.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-1-2
7yo: 2-4-11
8yo: 2-3-15
9yo: 0-3-11
10yo: 4-1-14
11yo+: 2-1-11
12yo+: 0-1-5
Horses aged 6 to 9: 4-11-39
Horses aged 10+: 6-3-30
No very strong trends on ages, though horses aged 10+ have won 6 of 10 from less than 44% of the total runners. All 6 winners aged 10+ had run in either the Gold Cup or King George (or both) that season.

Gender
The two mares (0-2-2) to run in this race in past 10 years have both finished 2nd.

Breeding
French Bred: 4-9-23
Irish Bred: 4-2-30
British Bred: 2-3-14
German Bred: 0-0-2
No very strong trend on breeding, though French breds have done well, gaining 4 wins since 2002 (including 3 of the last 5) from 33.3% of the total runners, and 13 of 23 making the places.

Recent/Past Form
5 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 last time (5 exceptions unplaced in Gold Cup)
10 of 10 winners had won at least 4 chases
9 of 10 winners had run in 10 or more chases in their career
9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (exception having first try at 3M+)
10 of 10 winners had won a graded chase
5 of 10 winners had won a grade 1
7 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a grade 1 chase that season
Only 1 of the past 10 winners had previously won at Aintree, so course form is not overly important.

Other races
Returning Bowl winner (Nacarat): 2P34 (0-1-4)
Argento Chase winner (Midnight Chase): 161 (2-0-3)
Charlie Hall Chase winner (Weird Al): 51531 (2-0-5)
John Durkan Memorail Chase winner (Rubi Light): 1 (1-0-1)
Hennessy Gold Cup winner (Carruthers): 41 (1-0-2)
Ryanair Chase winner (Riverside Theatre): 41 (1-0-2)
Ascot Chase winner (Riverside Theatre): 32 (0-2-2)
Racing Plus Chase winner (Nacarat): 5 (0-0-1)
Highest placed finisher from King George to run in this: 1512412331 (4-3-10)
Highest placed finisher from Gold Cup to run in this: 542P312FF5 (1-3-10) 8 of these 10 were sent off favourite
6 of 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last time, finishing 0P5U26
5 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishing 12224
3 of 10 winners ran in the Argento Chase, finishing 112
3 of 10 winners ran in the John Durkan, finishing 132
2 of 10 winners ran in the Charlie Hall Chase, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in the Hennessy Gold Cup, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in the Lexus, finishing 71
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Aintree Bowl, finishing 33

Trainers
David Pipe (2-0-4) has won 2 of the last 4 runnings of this, continuing on his father’s fine record in the race (4 of the last 8 winners came from Pipe stable).
Jonjo O’Neill (1-2-4) has done well in this, gaining 1 win and 2 places from 4 runners.
Paul Nicholls (1-2-11) won the race in 2010 but he’s not had much luck in it other than that win. He’s saddled 4 beaten favourites in past 10 years (all 4 were sent off shorter than 6/4).
Tom George (1-0-2) has trained Nacarat to finish 1st and 3rd in past 2 renewals.
Willie Mullins (1-0-1) has also trained the winner once since 2001.

Price
Only 1 of 10 favourites have won this since 2002
It has paid to oppose the favourites in this race, with just one winning in the past 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 7.50.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· French breds do well
· Had at least 10 career chase starts (won at least 4)
· Finished in the first 3 in a graded chase last time or unplaced in Gold Cup
· Won over 3M+
· Won a graded chase (ideally a grade 1)
· Ran at Cheltenham Festival last time (ideally unplaced in Gold Cup)
· Finished the first 4 in King George this season
· Finished in first 3 in Argento, John Durkan and/or Hennessy Gold Cup
· Trained by David Pipe or Jonjo O’Neill
· Favourite has a poor record

[ganjaman2]

TOPHAM CHASE TRENDS 2012



The John Smith’s Topham Chase takes place at Aintree on Friday 13th April. It is a 2M 5½F grade 3 handicap chase run over the Grand National fences. Close to 30 runners line up in this race each year, so it is usually a fine spectacle and a super prelude to the Grand National on the following day.


Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:


Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 1-1-15
6yo: 0-2-15
7yo: 1-2-31
8yo: 1-6-59
9yo: 3-8-63
10yo: 4-7-67
11yo+: 0-4-49
Horses aged 5 to 8: 3-11-110
Horses aged 9 or 10: 7-15-130
Horses aged 11 or older: 0-4-49
In past 5 years horses aged 9 or 10 have won 4 of 5 & filled 13 of the 20 places
Since 1983 none of the 91 runners aged 11+ have managed to win this race.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-6 or more: 2-18-144
Horses carrying 10-5 or less: 8-12-145
8 of the last 9 winners carried 10-5 or less
Top Weights: 03F00BF002F (0-2-11).
The only two top weights to make the frame have been Exit Swinger (2003) who had previously been placed in 3 graded chases & was runner-up in the Grand Annual and Scotsirish (2010) who had previously won two grade 2 chases.

Official Ratings
Horses rated 142 to 155: 0-4-28
Horses rated 124 to 141: 8-20-192
Horses rated 110 to 123: 2-6-69
The last 6 winners were officially rated 128 to 141.
Horses racing from out of the handicap: 3-5-76
3 of the last 8 winners were racing from 8 or more pounds out of the handicap. The first 3 home in 2007 and 2009 were all racing from out of the handicap.

Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners finished in first 4 last time out (2 of 3 exceptions unplaced in Kim Muir)
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 35 days
10 of 10 winners had run 4 to 8 times since August
9 of 10 winners had won 0 or 1 chase that season
9 of 10 winners were 3rd, 4th or 5th season chasers
8 of 10 winners had won 3 to 5 chases (2 exceptions were French bred chasers aged 5 to 7 that had finished in first 2 in the Byrne Group Plate)
9 of 10 winners had run in 10 or more handicap chases
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 4 handicap chases
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+
10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or higher chase worth 9K+
8 of 10 (last 7) had contested a graded chase
10 of 10 winners had won at a left-handed track
4 of 10 winners (last 4) had run over hurdles that season

Course Form
Previous season's winner (Always Waining): F6PF1 (1-0-5)
Horses placed the previous year: 60P491715103 (3-2-12)
6 of 10 winners (6 of last 8) ran in last year's race, finishing 004241
3 of 10 winners ran in the Grand Sefton in November, finishing 4F6
2 of 10 winners ran in the Becher Chase in November, finishing 36
7 of last 8 winners had run over the National fences (5 of 7 had finished in first 4)

Other Races
Highest placed finisher from Byrne Group Plate: 10F0061F0 (2-0-9)
Highest placed finisher from Kim Muir: 70601U25 (1-1-8)
Bobby Renton Handicap Chase winner (Persian Gates): 00 (0-0-2)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Kim Muir or Byrne Group Plate last time out
4 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in Byrne Group Plate that season or a previous season

Racing Tactics
7 of 10 winners raced prominently throughout the race
It appears to be key that you have a runner who likes to be close to the leaders as 29 of the last 32 winners were in the vanguard from halfway.

Trainers
Peter Bowen (3-2-11) has saddled Always Waining to win the last 2 renewals and also trained Dunbrody Millar to win this in 2007.
Paul Nicholls (1-2-23), Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-1-12) and Nicky Henderson (1-0-14) have all saddled the winner in the past 10 years, though each has been heavily represented.
Irish trained runners (2-10-60) have won 2 of the last 10 runnings though much of that is down to Willie Mullins (1-5-8) who has seen 7 of his 8 runners make the first 5. Charlie Swan (0-2-6) has seen 5 of his 6 runners make the first 7 (other unseated).

Price
No strong trends on the prices.
Favourites (1-4-11) have won just 1 of the last 10, showing a level stakes loss of 6.00.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 10 or younger (especially 9 or 10yos)
· Carrying 10-5 or less
· Officially rated 128 to 141
· Do not discount horses running from out of the handicap
· Finished in first 4 last time out or ran in Kim Muir or Byrne Plate
· Ran in past 35 days
· Run 4 to 8 times since August and won no more than once
· Previously won 3 to 5 times over fences
· Run in 10 or more handicap chases (winning no more than 4)
· Third, fourth or fifth season chaser
· Won over 2M 4F+
· Won at a left-handed track
· Has contested a graded chase
· Previously run over the National fences (ideally finished in first 4)
· Finished in first 6 in Grand Sefton or Becher Chase in November 2011
· Finished in first 4 in 2011 Topham Chase
· Previously finished in first 4 in a Byrne Group Plate
· Tends to race prominently
· Trained by Peter Bowen, Willie Mullins or Charlie Swan

[ganjaman2]

[QUOTE=ganjaman2;3523347]i know the main race at aintree is the grand national but there are some good races on the build up to the big race its self so i will put some trends up for those races i will start with



AINTREE BOWL CHASE TRENDS 2012



The Betfred Bowl Steeplechase is one of three grade 1 races featuring on the opening day of the 2012 Aintree Festival, which kicks off on Thursday 12th April. The 3M 1F chase was upgraded to grade 1 status in 2010 and so will attract a good few of this year’s Gold Cup protagonists. In the last 4 years, Kauto Star, Denman, Imperial Commander & Denman, again, have all been beaten in this after running well in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. It can often pay to oppose horses that had a hard race at Cheltenham.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-1-2
7yo: 2-4-11
8yo: 2-3-15
9yo: 0-3-11
10yo: 4-1-14
11yo+: 2-1-11
12yo+: 0-1-5
Horses aged 6 to 9: 4-11-39
Horses aged 10+: 6-3-30
No very strong trends on ages, though horses aged 10+ have won 6 of 10 from less than 44% of the total runners. All 6 winners aged 10+ had run in either the Gold Cup or King George (or both) that season.

Gender
The two mares (0-2-2) to run in this race in past 10 years have both finished 2nd.

Breeding
French Bred: 4-9-23
Irish Bred: 4-2-30
British Bred: 2-3-14
German Bred: 0-0-2
No very strong trend on breeding, though French breds have done well, gaining 4 wins since 2002 (including 3 of the last 5) from 33.3% of the total runners, and 13 of 23 making the places.

Recent/Past Form
5 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 last time (5 exceptions unplaced in Gold Cup)
10 of 10 winners had won at least 4 chases
9 of 10 winners had run in 10 or more chases in their career
9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (exception having first try at 3M+)
10 of 10 winners had won a graded chase
5 of 10 winners had won a grade 1
7 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a grade 1 chase that season
Only 1 of the past 10 winners had previously won at Aintree, so course form is not overly important.

Other races
Returning Bowl winner (Nacarat): 2P34 (0-1-4)
Argento Chase winner (Midnight Chase): 161 (2-0-3)
Charlie Hall Chase winner (Weird Al): 51531 (2-0-5)
John Durkan Memorail Chase winner (Rubi Light): 1 (1-0-1)
Hennessy Gold Cup winner (Carruthers): 41 (1-0-2)
Ryanair Chase winner (Riverside Theatre): 41 (1-0-2)
Ascot Chase winner (Riverside Theatre): 32 (0-2-2)
Racing Plus Chase winner (Nacarat): 5 (0-0-1)
Highest placed finisher from King George to run in this: 1512412331 (4-3-10)
Highest placed finisher from Gold Cup to run in this: 542P312FF5 (1-3-10) 8 of these 10 were sent off favourite
6 of 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last time, finishing 0P5U26
5 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishing 12224
3 of 10 winners ran in the Argento Chase, finishing 112
3 of 10 winners ran in the John Durkan, finishing 132
2 of 10 winners ran in the Charlie Hall Chase, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in the Hennessy Gold Cup, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in the Lexus, finishing 71
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Aintree Bowl, finishing 33

Trainers
David Pipe (2-0-4) has won 2 of the last 4 runnings of this, continuing on his father’s fine record in the race (4 of the last 8 winners came from Pipe stable).
Jonjo O’Neill (1-2-4) has done well in this, gaining 1 win and 2 places from 4 runners.
Paul Nicholls (1-2-11) won the race in 2010 but he’s not had much luck in it other than that win. He’s saddled 4 beaten favourites in past 10 years (all 4 were sent off shorter than 6/4).
Tom George (1-0-2) has trained Nacarat to finish 1st and 3rd in past 2 renewals.
Willie Mullins (1-0-1) has also trained the winner once since 2001.

Price
Only 1 of 10 favourites have won this since 2002
It has paid to oppose the favourites in this race, with just one winning in the past 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 7.50.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· French breds do well
· Had at least 10 career chase starts (won at least 4)
· Finished in the first 3 in a graded chase last time or unplaced in Gold Cup
· Won over 3M+
· Won a graded chase (ideally a grade 1)
· Ran at Cheltenham Festival last time (ideally unplaced in Gold Cup)
· Finished the first 4 in King George this season
· Finished in first 3 in Argento, John Durkan and/or Hennessy Gold Cup
· Trained by David Pipe or Jonjo O’Neill
· Favourite has a poor record





Entries for this

1 P12-12 Albertas Run 28 11 Jonjo O´Neill 168 161 169
2 1/2-24 Burton Port 27 8 Nicky Henderson 166 158 171
3 9-31P0 Carruthers 27 9 Mark Bradstock 149 149 155
4 1-45P Diamond Harry 27 9 Nick Williams 156 143 167
5 16244 Follow The Plan 33 9 Oliver McKiernan — 146 157
6 121111 Hunt Ball 30 7 Keiran Burke 154 137 160
7 6F-1R1 Master Of The Hall 40 8 Nicky Henderson 151 99 160
8 13223 Medermit 28 8 Alan King Robert Thornton 167 164 170
9 44351 Nacarat 47 11 Tom George 162 151 168
10 41-5U2 Poquelin 75 9 Paul Nicholls 168 155 172
11 121-11 Riverside Theatre 28 8 Nicky Henderson 170 162 172
12 394328 Roberto Goldback 32 10 D T Hughes — 132 157
13 6U-325 Tidal Bay 55 11 Paul Nicholls 154 144 162
14 25145 Time For Rupert 27 8 Paul Webber 157 157 164
15 8P-13P Weird Al 27 9 Donald McCain 164 150 172
16 4P-33F What A Friend 27 9 Paul Nicholls 162 149 167

[ganjaman2]

LIVERPOOL HURDLE TRENDS 2012



The BGC Partners Liverpool Hurdle is the opening race of Aintree’s 3-day Grand National meeting on 12th April. It was first run in 2004 and was promoted to grade 1 status in 2010. Run over 3 miles and half a furlong, it will attract many of the best stayers but it’s hard to see any of them beating Big Buck’s, who is looking for a fourth straight win in this race, but they may point you in the direction of who to back "without" the great horse.


Below we take a look at the trends for the past 8 years:


Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-1-7
6yo: 3-4-13
7yo: 4-6-19
8yo: 1-1-19
9yo+: 0-2-16
7 of 8 winners have been aged 6 or 7 with Big Buck’s being the exception to win it as an 8yo in 2011 after landing the previous 2 renewals.
Horses aged 9 or older have gained no wins and just 2 places from 16 runners but Big Buck’s is an exceptional horse, so could easily make a nonsense of this trend.

Breeding
French Bred: 5-4-25
British Bred: 2-2-20
Irish Bred: 1-7-28
German Bred: 0-1-1
Two French bred horses, Big Buck’s & Mighty Man, have accounted for 5 of the 8 runnings of this. Just like the World Hurdle, French bred horses do appear to hold an advantage in this race.

Recent/Past Form
7 of 8 winners won or placed last time out (exception 4th in World Hurdle)
8 of 8 winners had run 2 to 5 times that season
8 of 8 winners had won over 2M6F+
8 of 8 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle (since it became a grade 1, both winners had previously won a grade 1)

Course Form
Previous season's winner (Big Bucks): 2111 (3-1-4)
4 of 8 winners ran in previous Liverpool hurdle, finishing 1F11
Other 4 winners finished in first 2 in Mildmay Nov Chase, Top, Sefton or Mersey Novice Hurdle at the previous Aintree Festival
7 of 8 winners finished in first 2 at previous year’s Festival (exception fell in this)
8 of 8 winners had finished 1st or 2nd at a previous Aintree Festival
6 of 8 winners had previously won at the track
From a combined 14 previous course runs, the 8 winners made the places in all but 1 Aintree start, that exception being Blazing Bailey's fall in this race in 2007 before winning it the next year.

Other Races
World Hurdle winner (Big Bucks): 1233111 (4-3-7)
Long Walk winner (Big Bucks): 21411 (3-1-5)
Long Distance winner (Big Bucks): 33511 (2-1-5)
Cleeve Hurdle winner (Big Buck's): 4PF3142 (1-2-7)
Rendlesham Hurdle winner (Restless Harry): 2 (0-1-1)
Holloway's Hurdle winner (Smad Place): 549 (0-0-3)
7 of 8 winners ran in World Hurdle last time, finishing 1324111
4 of 8 winners ran in the Cleeve hurdle, finishing 5221
3 of 8 winners ran in the Long Distance hurdle, finishing 411
3 of 8 winners ran in the Long Walk hurdle, finishing 11
2 of 8 winners ran in the Relkeel hurdle, finishing 51
2 of 8 winners ran in the Cheltenham & Three Counties Club Hurdle, finishing 21

Trainers
Paul Nicholls (3-0-5) has saddled Big Buck’s to win the last 3 renewals.
Henry Daly (2-1-5) trained Mighty Man to win it in 2006 & 2007 and finish 2nd in 2009. He also had Possol finish 3rd in 2010 at 33/1.
Alan King (1-1-5) has gained 1 win and 1 second from his 5 runners in this.
Irish-trained runners (0-2-5) have gained 2 places from 5 runners in this. Sabrina Harty saddled Won In The Dark to finish 3rd last year and she has him entered again.

Price
8 of 8 winners were sent off 11/2 or shorter
All 8 winners came from the first 3 in the betting, however there have been some long-priced placed finishers, 2 x 14/1, 2 x 16/1, 20/1, 66/1 & 80/1.
Favourite (4-3-8) have won 4 of the 8 runnings but still show a level stakes loss of 1.49.


Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 8 years you are looking for a horse:
· French bred
· Aged 6 or 7 (or a previous winner of the race)
· Run 2 to 5 times this season
· Won a grade 1 or 2 over 2M 6F+
· Course winner
· Finished in first 3 in World Hurdle last time
· Finished 1st or 2nd at the 2011 Aintree Festival
· Trained by P Nicholls, H Daly or Alan King
· Priced 11/2 or shorter

[ganjaman2]

ANNIVERSARY HURDLE TRENDS 2012



The Matalan Anniversary 4YO Novices’ Hurdle is the second grade 1 race run on the opening day of Aintree’s 3 day Grand National meeting on Thursday 12th April. The race is usually dominated by horses that ran in the Triumph Hurdle, though in recent years the Fred Winter has also been a good trial with the Fred Winter 3rd, Orsippus, producing a 40/1 shock in this in 2010 and last year’s Fred Winter runner-up, Kumbeshwar, almost turning over the Triumph Hurdle winner, Zarkandar.


Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:


Age
Race for 4yos

Gender
Fillies (0-1-7) have gained no wins and 1 place from 7 runners in past 10 years. All 3 winning fillies in the past 20 years had bypassed Cheltenham.

Breeding
Irish bred: 5-9-50
French bred: 3-5-30
USA bred: 2-0-8
British bred: 0-4-35
Other: 0-1-11
All 10 winners were Irish, French or American bred.
British bred horses have a very poor record in the race, failing to win any of the last 10 and seeing just 3 of 34 representatives make the places.
9 of 10 winners were sired by a group winner on the flat
7 of 10 winners were sired by a horse that finished in first 3 in group 1 on flat

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners ran in the past 40 days
7 of 10 winners (last 7) finished in the first 3 last time out
8 of 10 winners had run 4 to 8 times over hurdles (2 exceptions finished in first 2 in a Cheltenham grade 1 last time)
8 of 10 winners had won at least twice over hurdles
8 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race 5+ lengths (1 exception was a maiden and other had won his 2 starts, both in graded company)
9 of 10 winners had previously contested a grade 1 (exception was 3rd in Fred Winter on previous start)
Since race became a grade 1, 6 of 7 winners had finished in first 2 in a grade 1 hurdle
6 of 10 winners had won a listed or graded hurdle (3 of 4 exceptions placed in a graded hurdle)
10 of 10 winners had raced on the flat

Other Races
Triumph Hurdle winner (Countrywide Flame): 221121 (3-3-6)
Record of the first 3 in Fred Winter in this: 5027312 (1-3-7)
Adonis Hurdle winner (Grumeti): 32141 (2-2-5)
Finesse Juvenile Hurdle winner (Grumeti): 711 (2-0-3)
Prestbury Juvenile Novice Hurdle winner (Hinterland): 1881 (2-0-4)
London Southend Airport Juv' Hurdle winner (Kapga De Cerisy): 52 (0-1-2)
William Hill - Home Of Betting Juv' Hurdle winner (Sadler's Risk): 78 (0-0-2)
Camerons Trophy Special Juv' Hurdle winner (Countrywide Flame): 7P (0-0-2)
Try Our New Gallery Restaurant Juvenile Hurdle winner (Beyeh): 49F (0-0-3)
8 of 10 winners ran in the Triumph Hurdle last time out, finishing 96021121 (1 exception 3rd in Fred Winter & other was 2nd in Supreme)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Finesse Juvenile hurdle, finishing 2411
3 of 10 winners ran in the Finale Juvenile hurdle, finishing PF1
3 of 10 winners ran in the Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle, finishing 211
2 of 10 winners ran in the Adonis Juvenile Hurdle, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the Wendsleydale Juvenile Hurdle, finishing 12

Trainers
Paul Nicholls (2-3-13) has gained 2 wins and 3 places from 13 runners in this, including last year’s winner, Zarkandar.
Alan King’s (2-1-5) last 3 runners in this were 1st (2007), 1st (2009) & a close 2nd (2011).
Nicky Henderson (1-2-6) trained Punjabi to finish 2nd in 2007, Binocular to win it in 2008 and was a bit unlucky to see Grandouet get brought down when going well last year.
Phillip Hobbs (1-1-6) & John Queally (1-0-1) have also saddled the winner once since 2002.
Irish trained horses (1-3-14) have gained 1 win and 3 places from approximately 10.4% of the total runners. 3 of the 4 Irish-trained runners to make the frame had finished in first 2 in a grade 2 juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown.

Price
Since 2005 (when made a grade 1) 6 of 7 winners were sent off favourite
Favourites (6-2-10) have won 6 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 6.79.


Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Irish, French or USA bred
· Sired by a group winner on the flat
· Raced on the flat (rated 80+)
· Run 4 to 8 times over hurdles (or unbeaten)
· Won at least twice over hurdles
· Finished in first 3 in Triumph Hurdle or Fred Winter last time
· Finished in first 2 in a grade 1
· Won a hurdles race by 5 or more lengths (or unbeaten over hurdles)
· First 3 in Finesse, Finale and/or Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle
· Won the Adonis Hurdle
· Trained by Alan King, Nicky Henderson or Paul Nicholls
· Favourite has a strong record

[ganjaman2]

JOHN SMITH'S FOXHUNTERS CHASE TRENDS 2012


The John Smith’s Foxhunters takes place on the opening day of Aintree’s Grand National meeting, on Thursday 12th April. The race is run over the Grand National fences, over a trip of 2M 5½F and is restricted to amateur riders. In recent years the majority of the winners of this had bypassed the Cheltenham Foxhunters Chase.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
7yo: 0-2-10
8yo: 0-0-17
9yo: 2-3-37
10yo: 2-5-62
11yo: 5-6-60
12yo: 1-2-41
13yo+: 0-2-27
9 of 10 winners were aged 9 to 11, though they have accounted for almost 62.6% of total runners.
Horses aged 8 or younger or 13+ have gained no wins and just 4 places from 54 runners.

Breeding
Irish Bred: 4-8-141
French Bred: 3-7-45
British Bred: 3-5-63
Other: 0-0-5
No very strong trends to be found from where the winners have been bred, though French bred horses have done best proportional to their representatives.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last completed start
8 of 10 winners won 1 of their last 2 runs
9 of 10 winners ran in the past 40 days (1 exception was Katarino winning the race for a second year after not racing since the previous year's win)
9 of 10 winners had won at least twice over fences under rules (exception Katarino had not run over fences that season but won 2 point to points)
9 of 10 winners had gained 1 or 2 wins that season (Katarino had not run that season before winning it for second time)
8 of 10 winners had run in no more than 4 hunter chases (winning no more than 1)
10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or above chase
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+
10 of 10 winners had won a chase at Newbury, Haydock, Fontwell or Sedgefield

Cheltenham Festival
Christies Foxhunters Chase winner: U6U (0-0-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Christies Foxhunter Chase, finishing 3FU
You have to go back to 1993 and Double Silk for the last horse to do the Cheltenham/Aintree Hunter chase double.
Only 3 of the last 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival. In 2002 the 3rd and 2nd from the Christies Foxhunters finished 1st and 2nd in this but since then all 6 runners that won or placed at Cheltenham to run in this have been unplaced.

Other Races
Previous year's winner (): 251U2U7 (1-2-7)
Walrus Hunter Chase winner (Unowatimeen): 2U3U11 (2-2-6)
Lambourn Open Day 6th April Hunter Chase winner (Offshore Account): 1F (1-0-2)
Clonmel Festival Week Maiden Hunters Chase winner (Boxer Georg): 3 (0-1-1)
Ubique Hunters' Chase winner (Gwanako): 3 (0-1-1)
Queen Mother Memorial Hunters' Chase winner (Gwanako): 44 (0-0-2)
pointtopoint.co.uk Hunters' Chase winner (The Polomoche): 5U (0-0-2)
Magnus-Allcroft Memorial Trophy Hunter Chase winner (Fresh Air And Fun): 5F0 (0-0-3)
Betfred "Will They, Won't They" Memorial Hunters' Chase winner (Island Life): F6U (0-0-3)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Whitelaw Challenge Cup, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in the Walrus hunter Chase, finishing 11

Racing Tactics
9 of 10 winners led or raced prominently through the race
Only Katarino in 2005 won after being held up. Typically in these one lap races over the National fences you do need to be up amongst the leading 9 or 10.

Trainers
Robert Waley-Cohen (2-1-4) trained Katarino to gain 2 wins and a 2nd.
Paul Nicholls (1-1-11) has seen 7 of his 11 runners complete the course and 6 of those 7 finished in the first 5.
Dr Richard Newland (1-0-2) is the only other trainer represented that has won the race since 2002.
Willie Mullins (0-1-3) has seen 2 of his 3 runners finish in the first 4 and he saddled Boxer Georg of finish 2nd last year while Tracey Bailey trained Offshore Account to finish 3rd, both horses are entered again this year.
Irish trained runners (0-5-45) have gained no wins and just 5 places from 45 runners. They have been responsible for 5 favourites in that time.

Price
9 of 10 winners were priced between 3/1 and 8/1
In 2010 Silver Adonis won at 50/1, the only double figure price winner since 2000.
Favourites (2-3-11) have won 2 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 1.67. 5 of the last 10 beaten favourites were trained in Ireland (all Irish favourites beaten).

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 9 to 11
· Finished in the first 3 last time in the past 40 days
· Won on 1 of last 2 starts
· Won 2 or more chases under rules
· Won over 2M 4F+
· Won a class 3 or better chase
· Won 1 or 2 chases this season
· Run in 4 or fewer hunter chase (winning no more than 1)
· Won a chase at Newbury, Haydock, Sedgefield or Fontwell
· Bypassed the Cheltenham Festival or didn’t complete in Christies Foxhunters
· Finished in first 3 in Whitelaw Challenge Cup or Walrus Hunter Chase
· Tends to race prominently
· Trained in Great Britain
· Priced between 3/1 and 8/1

[ganjaman2]

RED RUM HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS 2012



The Matalan.co.uk Red Rum Handicap Chase takes place at Aintree on Thursday 12th April. It is a 2M grade 3 handicap chase that usually attracts many of the horses that contested the Grand Annual at Cheltenham.


Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:


Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 2-4-17
7yo: 3-6-34
8yo: 2-6-38
9yo: 3-6-39
10yo: 0-3-19
11yo+: 0-0-8
All 10 winners were aged 6 to 9, though that age group represented almost 82% of the total runners. You have to go back to 1993 for the last winner aged 10+.

Breeding
Irish Bred: 4-13-57
French Bred: 4-7-55
German Bred: 1-1-5
New Zealand bred: 1-0-3
British Bred: 0-4-30
Other: 0-0-5
No very strong trends on breeding, though British bred horses have fared poorly, gaining no wins and just 4 places from 30 runners (approximately 19.4% of total runners).

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 11-3 or more: 1-7-37
Horses carrying 10-9 to 11-2: 3-7-47
Horses carrying 10-8 or less: 6-11-71
5 of the last 6 winners carried 10-8 or less
The only winner to carry more than 11-1 in past 10 years was Fota Island in 2005, who had won the Grand Annual on previous start was runner-up in 4 grade 1’s the following season, including the Champion Chase and Melling Chase.
Top Weight: UF27296F6UB7 (0-2-12)

Official Ratings
Horses rated 143 or higher: 0-8-34
Horses rated 129 to 142: 10-15-99
Horses rated 128 or lower: 0-2-22
10 of 10 winners were officially rated 129 to 142
Horses racing from out of the handicap: 2-3-20

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in 1 of last 2 starts
9 of 10 winners had run in past 35 days
6 of 10 winners were novice chasers
6 of 6 novice chase winners had finished in first 4 on all completed chase starts (33 of 33)
9 of 10 winners had run in no more than 13 chases
8 of 10 winners had contested no more than 6 handicap chases
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 handicap chase (exception had won 2)
9 of 10 winners had won a chase at a left-handed track (exception had yet to win a chase but all 3 hurdles wins came left-handed)
8 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or higher chase (2 exceptions placed in a class 2 or higher chase)

Aintree Form
7 of 10 winners ran at the previous Aintree Festival
2 of 10 winners ran in this race the previous year, finishing B6
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season’s John Smith’s H’cap Hurdle, finishing 69
2 of 10 winners ran in a Top Novice hurdle at a previous Festival, finishing 63

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Silk Drum): 27P9R (0-1-5)
Grand Annual Chase winner (Bellvano): 31PF192 (2-2-7)
bettor.com Social Betting Handicap Chase winner (Song Sung Blue): 6815 (1-0-4)
At The Races Virgin 534 Novices' Chase winner (Kumbeshwar): 2 (0-1-1)
John Parrett Memorial Chase winner (Takeroc): 3 (0-1-1)
Byrne Group Handicap Chase winner (Anquetta): 2P6 (0-1-3)
Bathwick Tyres Mid Season Chase H'cap Chase winner (Falcon Island): 5U (0-0-2)
Jenny Mould Memorial Handicap Chase (Astracad): 4P7 (0-0-3)
5 of 10 winners ran in the Grand Annual last time, finishing 3F151
4 of last 6 winners ran in a Newbury chase over 2M to 2M 4F that season, finishing 1231

Trainers
Alan King (1-2-3) hasn’t saddled many runners in this since 2002, but his 3 representatives have produced 1 winners and 2 seconds.
Venetia Williams (1-1-12) and Paul Webber (1-0-7) are the only other 2 trainers with entries to have won this in past 10 years.
Paul Nicholls (0-3-15), Colin Tizzard (0-2-2) and Ferdy Murphy (0-2-6) have all saddled multiple placed finishers in this in the past 10 years.
Nicky Henderson (0-0-10) has seen all 10 of his runners since 2002 finish unplaced.
Irish-trained runners (1-3-15) have gained 1 win and 3 places from 15 runners. 3 of the 4 to make the places had finished in first 6 in Grand Annual last time.

Jockeys
Claiming jockeys: 3-2-26
Non-claimers: 7-23-129
The winners in 2011, 2010 & 2008 were all ridden by claimers and only one claiming jockey rode in the 2009 renewal, on a 40/1 shot.

Price
8 of 10 winners were sent off 10/1 or shorter
Historically this race has been dominated by horse prominent in the betting but in the past 4 years there have been winners priced at 20/1 and 25/1.
Favourites (4-4-13) have won 4 of the last 10, showing a level stakes profit of 8.33.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 6 to 9
· Ran in past 35 days
· Posted highest chase RPR in last 2 outings
· Carrying 10-8 or less
· Officially rated 129 to 142
· Run no more than 13 times over fences
· Run in 6 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 1)
· Won a class 3 or higher chase
· Won a chase at a left-handed track
· Novice chasers do well (never finished outside first 4 in a completed chase)
· Has previous Aintree Festival form
· Ran in the Grand Annual Chase last time
· Finished in first 3 in Newbury chase over 2M-2M4F this season
· Trained by Alan King
· Priced 10/1 or shorter (favourites do well)

[ganjaman2]

MELLING CHASE TRENDS 2012



The grade 1 Melling Chase takes place on Friday 13th April and has been won by some of the best chasers of the past decade, including Moscow Flyer, Voy Por Ustedes, Albertas Run and Master Minded. Run over 2M 4F, it gives the main protagonists from the Champion Chase and Ryanair a chance to meet.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:


Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-1-2
6yo: 0-1-5
7yo: 1-2-7
8yo: 2-5-24
9yo: 4-3-20
10yo: 2-2-15
11yo+: 1-1-8
Horses aged 5 to 8: 3-9-38
Horses aged 9+: 7-6-43
All 3 winners aged 8 or younger were French bred. All 7 winners aged 9 or older were Irish bred.

Breeding
Irish Bred: 7-7-35
French Bred: 3-6-31
German Bred: 0-1-2
British Bred: 0-1-12
American Bred 0-0-1
All 10 winners were either Irish or French bred.
8 of 9 French bred horses to make the frame were aged 8 or younger
13 of 14 Irish bred horses to make the frame were aged 8 or older
British bred runners gained no wins and just 1 place from 12 runners.

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 on last completed start (exceptions were 8th in Queen Mother & 4th in Ryanair)
10 of 10 winners had run in past 30 days
10 of 10 winners had run 4 to 7 times that season
9 of 10 winners had previously run in 15 or more chases (& won at least 5)
7 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+ (3 exceptions all previous Champion Chase winners)
10 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase
8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 that season (2 exceptions won a grade 2 & finished 2nd in two grade 1's that season)
7 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 at a previous Aintree Festival (3 exceptions were Irish-trained runners, having their first course starts)

Cheltenham Festival
Ryanair Chase winner (Riverside Theatre): P212 (1-2-4)
Ryanair Chase highest placed finisher to run in this: 2P2112 (2-3-6)
Queen Mother Champion Chase winner (Finian's Rainbow): 12 (1-1-2)
Champion Chase highest placed finisher to run in this : 11P12P2723 (3-4-10)
6 of 10 winners ran in the Queen Mother, finishing 22U128
4 of 10 winners ran in the Ryanair, finishing 6421
10 of 10 winners ran in Queen Mother Champion or Ryanair Chase that season

Other races
Returning Melling Chase winner: 3131512 (3-2-7)
Highest placed finisher from last year’s race to return: 313151F2 (3-2-8)
Ascot Chase winner (Riverside Theatre): 113 (2-1-3)
Desert Orchid Chase winner (Finian's Rainbow): 1 (1-0-1)
Old Roan Chase winner (Albertas Run): P3 (0-1-2)
Previous season's Manifesto Nov Chase winner (Wishfull Thinking): 46 (0-0-2)
Previous season's Maghulls Nov Chase winner (Finian's Rainbow): F5F (0-0-3)
4 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishing 5636
4 of 10 winners ran in the Tingle Creek, finishing 1121
3 of 10 winners ran in last season’s Melling Chase, finishing 111
3 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Chase, finishing 112
2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in Amlin Chase, finishing 11
4 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in the Fortria Chase, finishing 2113
3 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in the Kinloch Brae, finishing 114
3 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in the John Durkan, finishing 211

Trainers
Alan King (2-0-3) won the race in 2008 & 2009 with Voy Por Ustedes.
Paul Nicholls (1-4-13) and Jonjo O’Neill (1-1-2) have saddled the last 2 winners.
Tom Cooper (0-1-1) trained Forpadydeplasterer to finish 2nd in 2010 and he’s entered Forpady in the race again.
Nicky Henderson (0-1-8) has struggled in this race, gaining just 1 place from his 8 runners since 2002.
Irish-trained runners (5-4-21) won all 5 runnings between 2002 and 2006 but have only filled 2 places in the past 5 renewals.

Price
9 of 10 winners were sent off 8/1 or shorter
Only once in the past 10 runnings has the winner come from outside top 4 in the betting.
Favourites (5-3-12) have won 5 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 0.24.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Irish bred aged 9+ or French bred aged 5 to 8
· Had at least 15 career chase starts (won at least 5)
· Run 4 to 7 times this season
· Ran in this season’s Ryanair or Queen Mother Champion Chase
· Won over 2M 4F+ (or a previous Champion Chase winner)
· Won a grade 1 chase this season
· Ran in the King George this season
· Finished in first 2 in Tingle Creek and/or Ascot Chase
· Irish-trained that finished in first 3 in John Durkan, Fortria and/or Kinloch Brae
· Previously finished in first 3 in a race at the Aintree Festival
· Trained by Alan King, Jonjo O’Neill or in Ireland
· Priced 8/1 or shorter

[ganjaman2]

TOP NOVICE HURDLE TRENDS 2012



The John Smith’s Top Novices’ Hurdle is a grade 2 race run over 2M ½F. It takes place on the Friday of the Aintree Festival and will see protagonists from the Supreme Novices and Triumph Hurdle clash.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 1-1-14
5yo: 7-8-52
6yo: 1-8-28
7yo: 1-1-16
8yo+: 0-1-3
5yos have won 7 of 10 and filled 15 of 29 places from approximately 46% of the total runners.

Gender
Mares (0-3-9) have gained no wins and 3 places from their 9 runners.

Breeding
Irish Bred: 3-9-47
French Bred: 2-4-16
American Bred: 2-1-8
German Bred: 2-0-10
British Bred: 1-5-30
Other: 0-0-2
Irish & British bred horses: 4-14-77
French, German & American bred: 6-5-34
8 of 10 winners were sired by group 1 winner on flat (both exception sired by group winners that finished in first 4 in a group 1)

Weight
Horses carrying 11-8: 0-2-11
Horses carrying 11-0 to 11-5: 9-14-94
Horses carrying less than 11-0: 1-3-18
All 11 horses to carry 11-8 have been beaten and only 2 placed.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run in 2 to 3 hurdles
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 45 days
9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on last completed start (exception 6th in Supreme)
10 of 10 winners had won 1 or 2 hurdles previously
0 of 10 winners had won a graded hurdle
4 of 10 winners had placed in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
7 of 10 winners ran on the flat (3 exceptions had won a bumper)
3 of 3 winners that raced on flat in Britain were rated 90+

Other races
Supreme Novices Hurdle winner: P2 (0-1-2)
Highest placed finisher from Supreme Novices Hurdle: 213215P32 (2-5-9)
Horses placed in Supreme: 213213 (2-4-6)
E B F Jenny & Mark Pitman Syndicates NH Novice Hurdle winner (Darlan): 11 (2-0-2)
SSAFA Forces Help NH Novices' Hurdle winner (Oscar Dara): 1 (1-0-1)
British Studs Supporting British Racing EBF Novices' Hurdle winner (Darlan): 3 (0-1-1)
Bathwick Tyres Salisbury Novices' Hurdle winner (Theatre Guide): 42 (0-1-2)
Tolworth Hurdle winner (Captain Conan): 6 (0-0-1)
Newton Novices' Hurdle winner (Molotof): 66 (0-0-2)
Sportingbet Novices' Hurdle winner (Prospect Wells): 67 (0-0-2)
4 of 10 winners ran in Supreme Novice Hurdle last time, finishing 362U
2 of 10 winners won EBF "National Hunt" Novices' Hurdle (Qualifier)

Trainers
Paul Nicholls (1-2-9) and Nicky Henderson (1-1-8) have each saddled the winner and a placed finisher in the past 10 renewals.
Donald McCain (0-1-3) has saddled a 3rd & a 5th with his last 2 runners.
Irish-trained runners (0-2-9) have gained just 2 place from 9 runners (3 of which went off shorter than 5/1).

Price
No strong trends on prices but favourites (1-6-10) have won just 1 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 7.00.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· German, French or American bred
· Sired by group 1 winner on the flat
· Aged 5
· Run in 2 or 3 hurdles (winning 1 or 2)
· Finished in first 3 on last completed start in past 45 days
· Won 1 of last 2 runs
· Had won a hurdle at no higher than class 2
· Had run on the flat (rated 90+ if ran in GB) or won a bumper
· Bypassed Cheltenham or finished in first 3 in Supreme

[Wompastompa]

to be fair means nothing to me but am going to aintree. Please can you give me advice on what you would gamble on cos i have a c- in gcse maths and all this means nowt to me would appreciate a point in the right direction.

[ganjaman2]

MILDMAY NOVICE CHASE TRENDS 2012






The John Smith’s Mildmay Novice Chase is a grade 2 run over 3 miles 1 furlong and takes place on Friday 13th April, the second day of Aintree’s Grand National meeting.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:


Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 2-2-8
6yo: 1-5-19
7yo: 4-9-37
8yo: 1-1-18
9yo: 1-2-13
10yo+: 1-1-4
Horses aged 5 to 7: 7-16-64
Horses aged 8+: 3-4-35

Breeding
Irish Bred: 6-8-52
French Bred: 3-7-26
British Bred: 1-5-17
Other: 0-0-4
No very strong trends

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 6 chases
9 of 10 winners had won at least 2 chases
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 55 days
8 of 10 winners won 1 of their last 2 starts
8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (both exceptions won over 2M 4F)
10 of 10 winners had first run in a bumper, pt to pt or French hurdle
10 of 10 winners had contested a grade 1 chase or hurdle
Excluding chase starts at the Cheltenham Festival, the 10 winners ran in a total of 38 chases before winning this. They completed on 34 of those 38 starts, finishing in the first 3 in all 34.

Other races
Highest placed finisher from RSA Chase to run in this: F5U3113554 (2-2-10)
Rising Star Novice Chase winner (Silviniaco Conti): 8127 (1-1-4)
Dipper Novice Chase winner (Champion Court): 1 (1-0-1)
Matalan Novice Chase winner (Champion Court): 1P6 (1-0-3)
Ultima Frontrunner In IT Solutions Nov Chase winner (Join Together): 4P34 (0-1-4)
Previous season's Sefton Novice Hurdle winner (Saint Are): 84 (0-0-2)
David & Toni Eyles Beginners' Chase winner (Solix): 5F (0-0-2)
8 of 10 winners ran in a chase at Cheltenham Festival
5 of 10 winners ran in the RSA Chase, finishing 514P2
3 of 10 winners finished in first 4 in previous year's Sefton Novice or Aintree Hurdle
2 of 10 winners ran in the Dipper Novice Chase, finishing 13

Trainers
Paul Nicholls (2-3-12) and Nicky Henderson (2-1-9) have both won the race twice in the past 10 years.
Philip Hobbs (0-1-5) last won the race in 2001 but has only seen 1 of his 5 runners in past 10 years make the frame.
Irish-trained runners (2-1-9) have gained 2 wins & 1 place from 9 runners (9.1 of total runners).

Price
10 of 10 winners were priced between 5/2 and 7/1
Favourites (3-3-10) have won 3 of last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 1.25.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Run in 3 to 6 chases (winning at least 2)
· Won 1 of last 2 starts
· Finished in first 3 in all chases starts (excluding Cheltenham Festival)
· Won over 3M+
· Had contested a grade 1 chase or hurdle
· Had first run under rules in a bumper or hurdle
· Ran in a chase at 2012 Cheltenham Festival
· Finished in first 5 in the RSA Chase
· Finished in first 4 in the 2011 Sefton Novice or Aintree Hurdle
· Trained by Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson or in Ireland
· Priced 5/2 to 7/1

[ganjaman2]

SEFTON NOVICE HURDLE TRENDS 2012


The John Smith’s Sefton Novices’ Hurdle is a grade 1 race run over 3M ½F. It takes place on the Friday of the Aintree Festival and usually attracts runners from the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham. In recent years hurdlers that bypassed Cheltenham have had greater success in this race, with the last 4 winners all missing Cheltenham for this race.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-0-3
5yo: 3-2-28
6yo: 5-11-66
7yo: 2-3-31
8yo: 0-4-7
9yo+: 0-0-1
All 10 winners have been aged 5 to 7, though that’s hardly surprising considering they have represented almost 92% of the total runners. No strong trends to be gleaned from the ages of the winners.

Gender
Mares: 10543 (1-1-5) have gained 1 win & 1 place from just 5 runners (3.7% of total runners).
The only 2 female runners priced shorter than 20/1 have been Asian Maze (1st at 7/1) and Sparky May (3rd at 4/1).

Breeding
Irish Bred: 4-14-88
British Bred: 4-4-26
French Bred: 1-2-20
American Bred 1-0-2
Irish bred horses have accounted for almost 65% of the total runners, so their return of 4 winners is actually disappointing.
British bred runners have a fine record, winning 4 of the last 10 from just 19.1% of the total runners.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners won or placed last time (exception 8th in Albert Bartlett)
8 of 10 winners won 1 of last 2 starts (2 exceptions placed in h'cap hurdles last time)
10 of 10 winners had run 4 to 8 times since start of August
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days
7 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a graded hurdle (1 exception was unbeaten over hurdles & another won a 23K class 2 h'cap hurdle on previous start)
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M5F+ (exception placed in 2M5F h'cap hurdle on last run)
8 of 10 winners had begun their racing career in a bumper or point to point (both exceptions had contested a group race on flat)
Combining each of the 10 winners' last four starts, they made the first 4 in 36 of 39 completed runs (2 exceptions finished 5th & 8th in big field graded hurdles and other was 7th in a Cheltenham novice hurdle on seasonal debut)

Cheltenham Festival
Only 4 of 10 winners ran at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (2 in Albert Bartlett, 1 Coral Cup and 1 World Hurdle). 3 of the 4 won or placed.
Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle winner: 41245 (1-1-5)
Highest placed finisher from Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle: 412456P (1-1-7)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle, finishing 18

Other races
Highest placed finisher from Prestige Novice Hurdle: 1431618 (3-1-7)
Highest placed finisher from River Don Novice Hurdle: 03P31 (1-2-5)
Bristol Novice Hurdle winner (Deireadh Re): 01214P (2-1-6)
Hyde Novice Hurdle winner (Fingal Bay): 2214 (1-2-4)
Persian War Novices' Hurdle winner (Fingal Bay): 33 (0-2-2)
Challow Novices' Hurdle winner (Fingal Bay): 8227 (0-2-4)
Winter Novices' Hurdle winner (Fingal Bay): 3 (0-1-1)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Prestige Novice Hurdle, finishing 112
2 of 10 winners ran in the Bristol Novice Hurdle, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the River Don Novice Hurdle, finishing 21

Trainers
Tim Vaughan (1-0-1) trained Saint Are to win this last year and is the only trainer with an entry to have won the race since 2002.
Philip Hobbs (0-3-6) & Paul Nicholls (0-2-9) have each gained multiple places in the race.
Donald McCain (0-1-1) and Colin Tizzard (0-1-4) have each saddled one placed finisher while Charles Byrnes (0-0-3) has seen his 3 runners all just miss out, finishing 4th-5th-4th.
Irish-trained runners (1-1-17) have a poor enough record, gaining just 1 winner from 17 runners, 7 of which went off 7/1 or shorter.

Price
The recent trend has been for longer priced winners with the last 5 winners going off at 33/1, 9/1, 25/1, 16/1 & 20/1.
Favourites (2-3-10) have won just 2 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 6.48. Both winning favourites were trained by Jonjo O’Neill and were sent off odds on.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· British bred
· Mares that have won a graded hurdle do well
· Finished in first 4 in last 4 starts
· Won 1 of last 2 runs
· Ran in past 50 days
· Run 4 to 8 times since August
· Won or placed in a graded hurdle
· Won over 2M 5F+
· Started career in bumper/pt to pt (or rated 90+ on flat)
· Won or placed in hurdle at Cheltenham in March (or bypassed Festival)
· Finished in first 3 in Bristol, River Don or Prestige Novices’ Hurdle
· Trained by Tim Vaughan or Philip Hobbs
· Priced 9/1 or higher