EPSOM DERBY TRENDS 2012

[ganjaman2]

The Investec Derby takes place at Epsom on Saturday 2nd June and this year’s race will see Camelot look to emulate the achievement of Sea The Stars in 2009, by winning both the 2000 Guineas and the Derby.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age
Race for 3yos

Breeding
Irish bred: 6-10-74
British bred: 3-7-49
American bred: 1-3-17
German bred: 0-0-2
French bred: 0-0-5
10 of 10 winners by a sire with a stamina index of 8.6+
9 of 10 winners sired by a group 1 winner
4 of 10 winners by a sire that'd won or placed in English or Irish 2000 Guineas
5 of 10 winners by a sire who'd finished in the first 2 in the King George
10 of 10 winners were born before 7th April
Progeny of Montjeu (3-2-19) have won 3 of the last 10 while progeny of Galileo (1-2-14) have won the race just once from 14 representatives.

Dosage Profile
Composite Dosage Index of last 10 winners is 1.18
Composite Centre of Distribution of last 10 winners is 0.224

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had had 2 to 5 career starts
10 of 10 winners had won at least 50% of their career starts
10 of 10 winners had run 1 or 2 times that season
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on all starts that season
7 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exceptions finished 2nd in 2000 Guineas & other was 2nd in Dante)
9 of 10 winners achieved an RPR of 118+ last time out
10 of 10 winners ran in the last 35 days
5 of 10 winners won a group 1 as a 2yo (5 exceptions not run in a group 1 as a 2yo)
9 of 10 winners had won a group race (exception was Workforce in 2010, who may have won Dante but for the bit going through his mouth)
9 of 10 winners had won at the highest grade they'd run in
6 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F (3 exceptions finished 1st or 2nd in 2000 Guineas and other was an unlucky 2nd in Dante)
9 of 10 winners had first run as a 2yo over 7F or 8F (7 of 9 at a group 1 track)
The last 10 winners of the Derby had collectively run 39 times before winning the race. In those 39 starts they had finished outside first 3 only 3 times, all 3 occasions were on first run as 2yo.

2yo Form
Racing Post Trophy winner (Camelot): 106116 (3-0-6)
Dewhurst winner (Parish Hall): 11 (2-0-2)
Criterium De Saint-Cloud winner (Mandaean): 0926 (0-1-4)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Racing Post Trophy, finishing 111
2 of 10 winners ran in the Dewhurst Stakes, finishing 11
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners made debut in 7F Darley EBF Maiden at Curragh

3yo Form
Dante Stakes winner (Bonfire): 391101203 (3-3-9)
Prix Greffulhe winner (Kesampour): 51 (1-0-2)
2000 Guineas winner (Camelot): 01 (1-0-2)
Record of 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the English 2000 Guineas: 247011045 (2-1-9)
Dee Stakes winners (Astrology): 15080 (1-0-5)
Chester Vase winner (Mikdaam): 566054502 (0-1-9)
Lingfield Derby Trial winner (Main Sequence): 804093670 (0-1-9)
Newmarket Stakes winner (Noble Mission): 800 (0-0-3)
Bet365 Classic Trial winner (Imperial Monarch): 0400 (0-0-4)
4 of 6 British-trained winners ran in the Dante, finishing 1112
3 of 10 winners ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 221

Trainers
British-trained runners: 6-9-91
Irish-trained runners: 3-10-49
French-trained runners: 1-1-7
Michael Stoute (3-2-9) has won the race 3 times since 2002 but has no runner this year.
Aidan O’Brien (1-8-39) won back to back runnings in 2001 & 2002, but since 2003 has managed just 7 places from 36 runners.
Marcus Tregoning (1-1-4), Jim Bolger (1-0-2) and Peter Chapple-Hyam (1-0-2) have all won the race once in the past 10 years.
John Dunlop (0-2-4) has seen 2 of his 4 runners make the frame.

Racing Tactics
7 of 10 winners were held up in midfield or in rear
The other 3 winners all tracked the leader(s).

Price
10 of 10 winners came from first 4 in the betting & priced 6/1 or below.
Favourites (3-4-11) have won 3 of the last 10 and show a level stakes loss of 1.50 over past 10 years.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· By a group 1 winning sire with a stamina index of 8.6+
· Montjeu’s progeny do well
· Born before 07/04/2009
· Dosage index of around 1.18
· Centre of Distribution of around 0.22
· Made debut over 7F or 8F at a group 1 track
· Run 2 to 5 times before (winning at least half those starts)
· Run once or twice in 2012
· Never finished worse than 3rd (excluding racecourse debuts)
· Had run in the past 35 days
· Won last time out (or finished 2nd in 2000 Guineas/Dante)
· Posted an RPR of 118+ last time
· Previously on a group race
· Won a group 1 (or having first try in a group 1)
· Won over 7F+ as a 2yo & over 1M 2F as a 3yo
· Won the Dewhurst or Racing Post Trophy as a 2yo
· Won or placed in Dante or 2000 Guineas as 3yo
· Priced 6/1 or below

[ganjaman2]

4:00 Epsom - Investec Derby (Gr1)


In the Investec Derby it usually pays to oppose any runner which was beaten on their most recent start as 16 of the last 19 winners had been successful last time out. That is quite a big negative to overcome so Cavaleiro (3rd), Minimise Risk (5th) and Rugged Cross (3rd) all look to have a big question to answer. However, it isn’t totally impossible as proved firstly by New Approach in 2008 and Workforce two years later.


It is rare for a horse to have the sort of versatility that is required to win over a mile in the 2000 Guineas and then step up to a mile and a half and win the Investec Derby only a month later. The iconic Nijinsky managed to do it 1970 and Nashwan followed suit in 1989 before the modern-great Sea The Stars added his name to the list of double winners in 2009. Three in 42 years really does highlight what a difficult achievement it is, so all eyes will be on Camelot tomorrow to see if he can add to his 2000 Guineas victory.


Of all of the major Investec Derby trials, York’s Dante Stakes has been the strongest guide in recent years as North Light, Motivator and Authorized all won on the Knavesmire before their Derby victories and Workforce became the first horse to be beaten in the Dante to go on to land the following months Investec Derby. This year’s winner, Bonfire was very impressive in victory at York which is why he currently sits second in the betting.


Leopardstown’s Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial and Chester’s Dee Stakes have also proved good pointers in recent seasons but unfortunately the former is not represented this year. However, Astrology who was a runaway eleven length winner at Chester does line up this afternoon.


The remaining trials might have produced Derby winners in days gone by but in recent seasons they haven’t been as fruitful. Not since the legendary Shergar annihilated the field in 1981 has the Chester Vase winner gone on to victory in the Derby although in fairness to the race, recent winners Millenary, Hattan, Papal Bull, Soldier Of Fortune and Golden Sword have gone on to prove themselves more than useful horses. So this year’s winner Mickdaam would appear to have something to prove along with the horse that finished 5th at Chester Minimise Risk.


Lingfield is similar to Epsom in that both are sharp, left handed tracks featuring an uphill climb followed by a sweeping downhill turn and a long run in, so it is surprising that their Derby Trial hasn’t had more of an influence recently. Since 1983, Teenoso, Slip Anchor, Kahyasi and High-Rise all won at Lingfield en-route to Derby success but since then all of the winners to have run in the Investec Derby have been beaten. Main Sequence who won this year’s contest, with Cavaleiro back in 3rd, bid to get the race back amongst the winners.
With Sir Michael Stoute without a runner this year, the honour of leading trainer in the race goes to Aidan O’Brien who won here in 2001 and 2002 with Galileo and High Chaparral and has also seen seven of his runners finish in the frame. In fact, his horses finished 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th behind Sea The Stars in 2009. O’Brien, who has a replica Tattenham Corner gallop at his Ballydoyle training centre, would appear to hold all of the aces for this year’s race in the shape of Astrology and Camelot.


Over the last ten years the average winning starting price is a shade over 4/1 confirming that shock results in the Investec Derby are very rare. Therefore, certainly for win purposes, Camelot, Bonfire, Astrology and Main Sequence would appear to be the main protagonists. However, it is interesting to note that the last horse to win the Investec Derby at odds-on was Shergar, who stormed to a record ten length victory at 10-11 in 1981. Since then, the three horses to have started odds-on favourites for the Investec Derby – El Gran Senor (8-11, 1984), Tenby (4-5, 1993) and Entrepreneur (4-6, 1997) – were all beaten. Finally, don’t be put off backing an outsider each-way as over the past decade we have seen placed horses return a starting price ranging from 20-1 to 100-1.


Although runners drawn low have a slight disadvantage over the early part of the Investec Derby course, as long as they can maintain their position, that disadvantage is soon wiped out as they approach Tattenham Corner. Many a Derby has been won or lost on that part of the course. With nine runners this year, it is unlikely that there will any hard-luck stories so it is probably best not to rely too heavily on where your selection is drawn.


Apart from the 2010 winner Workforce, all of the recent Investec Derby winners with an official rating were rated 113 or higher and it could be argued that those without a rating had run to something like that mark. If we are to use that figure as a benchmark this year only Camelot (121), Bonfire (119), and Astrology (113) would appear to have the quality to win.


Shortlist


Camelot


Bonfire


(Thought Worthy)


Conclusion


Whichever way you look at it CAMELOT looks to have very strong credentials. Being especially picky one could argue that the record of 2000 Guineas winners isn’t great in the Investec Derby but just like Sea The Stars, who did the Classic double in 2009, O’Brien’s colt won at Newmarket despite the one mile trip rather than because of it. His racing style and pedigree both suggest that he will be better suited to a mile and a half. You could also argue that the last three odds-on favourites have all been beaten but with only 9 runners going to post can this be considered a ‘normal’ Derby. I think it will be a major upset if he is beaten.


Bonfire, the impressive winner of the Dante Stakes, looks to be his chief rival and he too has ticks in the all of the right boxes, in fact he is arguably stronger than Camelot. I like this horse a lot and even included him in my Fifty for the Flat service this year so I can see him serving it up to the hot-pot favourite and he must be the one that O’Brien fears the most.


Main Sequence and Astrology both deserve to be on the shortlist but I am giving the final place to Thought Worthy as I am almost certain that he will improve again for the step up in trip. He was only caught very late on by Imperial Monarch in the Sandown Classic Trial over a trip and on ground that was less than ideal, yet he was double the price prior to the O’Brien horse’s defection. He followed that with a hard-fought victory over Noble Mission and Rugged Cross in the Fairway Stakes when again he looked to be crying out for a mile and a half. He may well prove a St Leger horse in the long term and he did look more attractive at the 25/1 available earlier in the week but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him make the frame.