Betfred Cambridgeshire – Newmarket 3-40 saturday 29th september
The seven-year-old Rambo’s Hall (‘92) and the eight-year-old Baronet (’80) are the only two older horses to win the Betfred Cambridgeshire since 1977 so it should be fairly safe to discount the chances of Stevie Thunder and the 2010 winner Credit Swap.
In that same period there hadn’t been a single five-year-old winner until Credit Swap broke their long losing run in 2010 and woe and behold Prince Of Johanne followed suit last year.
Therefore, five-year-olds can no longer be viewed in a negative light.
In the last decade, three and four-year-olds have won six renewals and the strength of that trend is backed up when looking at the bigger picture over the last 35 years.
Three-year-olds have won 11 times and four-year-olds 14 times or in other words 25 of the last 35 – a pretty strong return in anyone’s book.
Six-year-olds may have only won the race six times since 1977 but four of those have come in the last 13 years. Their record looks even stronger considering that on average they are responsible for half as many runners as three-year-olds and a third as many as four-year-olds.
The 2010 winner, Credit Swap along with I Cried For You and Chivalry all won the Betfred Cambridgeshire off an official rating in the high 80s and last year’s winner Prince Of Johanne did so off 91. But overall, seven of the last ten renewals have been won by horses officially rated between 95 and 102 suggesting that they could well be the group to focus on tomorrow.
For the record, of the more fancied runners, Mukhadram, Chill The Kite, Bronze Angel and King’s Warrior all fall into this category.
Newbury’s Dubai Duty Free Handicap, a 0-105 handicap run over 1m2f, has provided four recent Cambridgeshire winners. Blue Monday and Formal Decree had both recorded a top three finish in that particular race whilst Spanish Don and Tazeez had both finished mid-division.
However, in recent seasons only 7 days separates the two fixtures and therefore it remains to be seen if it will continue have the same impact. Licence To Till is the only representative from that race tomorrow.
Quite remarkably, 28 of the last 31 Cambridgeshire winners had achieved a top-four finish on their most recent start – Spanish Don, Tazeez and Supaseus being the three to miss out.
Interestingly, both Spanish Don and Tazeez had been unplaced in the aforementioned race at Newbury, whilst Supaseus had hardly finished out with the washing when coming home fifth in a competitive handicap at Sandown.
Good news for all of the market leaders.
During the last decade, only Spanish Don and Prince Of Johanne have managed to win from a high draw. The overall trend suggests that those drawn in the nine highest numbered stalls are to be opposed – namely Rewarded, Talk About, Postscript, Making Eyes, Loving Spirit, Credit Swap, Mijhaar, Fury, Double Dealer and Spa’s Dancer.
Two winning favourites over the past ten years isn’t that bad a return given that the Betfred Cambridgeshire is a fiercely competitive race. Four other winners had been no worse than 6th in the betting implying that the market leaders tend to run to form although this isn’t backed up by an average winning starting price of just under 24-1.
However, if you were to discount the recent 100-1, 40-1 and 25-1 winners it has a much more respectable look to it. So overall, the best advice is to favour those towards the forefront of the betting but don’t be put off backing an outsider if one were to take your fancy.
John Gosden has a strong record in the Cambridgeshire as from a relatively small number of runners he has won it twice in the last decade and three times overall but sadly he is without a runner this afternoon. In fact, none of the trainers with a particularly strong record in the race have runners this year.
Shortlist
Bronze Angel
Chil The Kite
King’s Warrior
(Burano)
Conclusion
BRONZE ANGEL has a profile that seems to fit in well with the roll of honour of past Cambridgeshire winners. After improving from run-to-run as a juvenile he hasn’t done a lot wrong this season with a solid effort on his reappearance at Musselburgh before winning a competitive Doncaster handicap.
But perhaps his best effort came in the Britannia when he finished a strong 3rd having been drawn on the wrong side. He hasn’t raced since then, with Marcus Tregoning no doubt keen to protect his handicap mark, so he should arrive here fresh and with a few pounds still up his sleeve.
Once again he hasn’t been done any favours by the draw but stall 21 isn’t the end of the world and I find it encouraging that William Buick has been booked for the ride for quite some time.
Hughie Morrison’s Chil The Kite has a similar lightly-raced profile. After wins at Doncaster and Ascot, this Notnowcato colt ran well to finish less than 3L behind the well-regarded Thistle Bird, who runs this afternoon in the Rosemary Stakes. If she dominates there I can see Morrison’s colt coming in for plenty of support on Saturday.
King’s Warrior might be a 5yo but he doesn’t have many miles on the clock and judged on his comfortable victory at York in July he may still have further improvement in him although he will need to as the handicapper walloped him with a 10lb rise for his rout on the Knavesmire.
But like the main selection, Peter Chapple-Hyam put him away after that, so perhaps he believes that a mark of 101 was worth protecting?
For those who fancy a punt at a big price Burano might just fit the bill. Currently around 33-1 this Dalakhani colt showed some reasonable form as a juvenile and out in Dubai over the winter when he beat Entifaadha in a listed race before having his limitations exposed in the Gr2 UAE Derby behind Daddy Long Legs.
He made his belated reappearance at Newbury last weekend when he ran just the sort of race that you would expect for one being aimed at the Cambridgeshire a week later. Fallon wasn’t overly hard on the horse, no doubt with one eye on tomorrow’s race, but it will have blown away the cobwebs and he could be one that has slipped under the radar.
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