Ascot Champions' Day - Saturday 20th October
Ascot Champions' Day - Saturday 20th October
Going: Soft, Heavy in Places on Round course; and Soft on Straight course.
Backers of ''Frankel to beat Excelebration'' will have made a stress-free profit over the last few season but today a Frankel/Excelebration double at odds of a little better than 11/10 looks a good bet.
1.45: Long Distance Cup.
Really trappy event to start Champions' day with so many muddling form lines between the main protagonists which makes any punters life hard. Fame And Glory would be my clear pick for this if the ground was Good but it's far from that and so preference is apparent Godolphin second-string OPINION POLL, ridden by Mikael Barzalona. The selection was 2nd to the enterprisingly-ridden Fame And Glory in this race last year, making up lots of ground off a slow pace. This proven Cup performer, who has 5 Group wins to his name over 2 miles, has been just as good this year; landing the Dubai Gold Cup from Sunday's Canadian International winner Joshua Tree before winning the Group 3 Henry II Stakes emphatically under a penalty in May. When last seen, Opinion Poll, to me looked an unlucky loser of the Ascot Gold Cup over 4f further, again making up lots of ground in a short amount of time off a slow pace, he hit the front over 1f out under today's rider before the combination of stamina ebbing away and a vicious ride from Frankie aboard the re-opposing Colour Vision meaning that defeat was snatched out of the jaws of victory with Saddler's Rock perhaps unlucky in 3rd. The aforementioned pair Opinion Poll split have both been mostly disappointing and so a fresh Opinion Poll, who goes very well on Soft ground, has a good favourites chance. Aiken (4th) was in front of Fame And Glory (6th) in the Irish St Leger but 1/2 a length separated the front 4 and so the form looks very unreliable.
Bet - Opinion Poll
2.20: Champions' Sprint.
Another difficult race and one that is dominated in the betting by Wizz Kid and Society Rock, however I believe both are vulnerable here. The former-named was a good winner of the Abbaye (5f Heavy) when last seen, however that was just 13 days ago and it remains to be seen how much that run has taken out of her. Furthermore her form figures over 5f reads 11555101 whilst at 6f or further her form figures read 428226, so from a win perspective I can't have Wizz Kid at all. The latter-named has a good course record, including when winning the 2011 Golden Jubilee on Soft ground, he produced a career best last time out in the Haydock Sprint Cup but I felt he benefitted from a slow early clip whilst the 3 market leaders (Strong Suit, Bated Breath & Ortensia) were all inconvenienced by it and so I think he was flattered. Yes it's true to say he beat subsequent Foret (Group 1 on Arc day) winner Gordon Lord Byron but that was possibly the weakest Group 1 this year and so at around 3/1 I think both the market leaders represent precious little value. At a bigger price, I think fellow French raider RESTIADARGENT is primed to run a big race. A very easy Group 2 winner on her final start as a 2yo on Very Soft ground, this Henri-Alex Pantall-trained filly proved she has trained on when producing a standout effort over C&D in the Diamond Jubilee, finishing a very close 3rd to Black Caviar & Moonlight Cloud, the best 2 sprinters in training at the moment I think. Admittedly the unbeaten Wonder from Down Under was below-par that day but subsequent dual Group 1 winner Moonlight Cloud wasn't and so if Restiadargent comes back to that form, when she had several of today's rivals behind (including Society Rock, 5th), she should be on the premises. Since Restiadargent has run 2 disappointing races, 5th behind Moonlight Cloud in the Maurice De Gheest and then 6th on unsuitably fast ground in a 6f Group 3 (both at Deauville). She possibly just doesn't like Deauville a lot and so with her sole run at Ascot representing very strong form, Restiadargent has a good chance to make amends.
Bet - Restiadargent e/w
2.55: Champions' Fillies' & Mares' Stakes
An interesting renewal with few of the 10 contenders easily dismissed, the pick of the 3yo's looks John Gosden's Great Heavens. This sister to Nathaniel has improved leaps and bounds on easy ground over the course of this season, her standout effort when producing a scintillating finishing burst to land the Irish Oaks (with the re-opposing Shirocco Star (2nd) & Was (4th) behind). Since then this race has always been the plan for Great Heavens, however she stepped in for her ''off'' Brother in the Arc where she could only finish 6th, 11 1/2 lengths behind Solemnia and wonderhorse Orfevre, reportedly wrong in the coat pre-race. With just 13 days between the Arc and today, I can't fancy Great Heavens with her having such a hard race (and when not at her best) and so preference is for Irish raider SAPPHIRE, who has been beautifully campaigned by Dermot Weld this year. Sapphire is 3 from 3 over today's trip of 1m 4f, including when hacking up in a Group 3 (sent off 1/7) last time out at the Curragh. Before then she only found Izzi Top too good in the Pretty Polly over 1m 2f, done for toe in the straight. Sapphire has been laid out for this race and coming here fresh could be a massive advantage given the time of year, and so rates as a confident bet for a trainer who pulled off a similar plot with Princess Highway in the Ribblesdale earlier in the year. La Pomme D'Amour has to respected being trained by Andre Fabre and the form of her win from Shimmering Surf at Deauville ties in okay with Great Heavens but her pedigree suggests she won't want ground this soft to be seen at best effect and it's very difficult to come from behind on the Round course.
Bet - Sapphire
3.30: QEII Stakes
A race that revolves around could-be superstar EXCELEBRATION, if Frankel wasn't around he'd be a 5 time Group 1 winner, rather than just a 2 time winner at the top level as he is currently. Excelebration was simply blown away by Frankel in this race year, and again in the C&D Queen Anne at the Royal meeting, trying to match strides with him and ended up just holding onto 2nd, before going one better in the Marois (1m at Deauville), despite the O'Brien being in dire form at the time and intended jockey Ryan Moore being stood down earlier in the day, Excelebration still had way too much for the re-opposing Cityscape & Elusive Kate. There is absolutely no reason why either of that pair should reverse the form here and so with little opposition outside those 2, Excelebration looks to have a very strong chance and to be honest I think the quote a shade of odds-on in the betting underestimates his chance ridiculously. Cityscape, who loves soft ground should confirm the Marois form with Elusive Kate, therefore a forecast bet could be the way to go.
Bet - Excelebration to beat Cityscape
4.05: Champion Stakes
Most probably the last time we'll ever see FRANKEL race and hopefully the perfect unbeaten record is maintained come 4.08 in what is undoubtedly his toughest assignment. Having been so good at 1m, few expected him to be even better over 1m 2f but the figures suggest he was when hacking up in the Juddemonte, making solid Group 1 performers Farhh and St Nicholas Abbey look like a pair of Selling hurdlers. That was on fast ground and so today's soft ground brings a totally different test, and whilst one can argue that his stamina could be stretched and open the door for top-class pair Cirrus Des Aigles & Nathaniel who both stay very well, I think it will be highly unlikely that either of them is within striking distance of Frankel when (or if) he begins to tie up. Hopefully we don't witness any shocks like Zenyatta's dramatic loss of her unbeaten record in her last race and Frankel can go to stud invincible.
Bet - Sit back and enjoy
4.45: Future Stars Apprentice Handicap
One nightmare of a race to end a great card and while Jack Dexter has the best recent form in the book when readily winning the Ayr Silver Cup, he represents very little value at around the 5/1 mark so is passed over. In a race where I think few others are handicapped, one juts out by a clear mile to me, LOVING SPIRIT (nap) looked a potential Group horse to me when he won a decent 7f Newmarket maiden on Soft ground 2 years ago to this month. Since that emphatic win, Loving Spirit has failed to get into the Winner's Enclosure but was left in the wilderness during his 3yo campaign, not good enough for Listed/Group races at the time and not well handicapped, this year things have changed. James Toller's charge was an eyecatching 6th on the AW on his return in May, his sole run on his preferable soft ground this season was when a close 5th of 9 at Yarmouth, unsuited by a slow early pace before unlucky not to win a pair of 1m Handicaps on the AW (finishing 2nd & 3rd, the latter off 3lbs higher). It is very easy to forgive his 20th of 33 in the Cambridgeshire when last seen, racing on the disadvantageous side, didn't enjoy the better ground and simply didn't stay 1m 1f. I think a strongly-run straight 7f on Soft ground are his optimum conditions and I'm very buoyed by the fact Toller had his first winner since May on Thursday night. With the above in mind, I nominate Loving Spirit as my value bet of the day at around 25/1. Of the others I suppose the well-handicapped Axiom could go well with Garbutt onboard, who is 2 from 3 when riding for Ed Walker, while Lightning Cloud has been bitterly disappointing this season and needs Good ground.
Bet - Loving Spirit e/w (nap) & Axiom small e/w.
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