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    Info BREEDERS' CUP FILLY & MARE TURF TRENDS

    The Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf takes place on Friday 2nd November and is another one of the races that the European raiders have had plenty of success in. Since it was first run in 1999, European horses have won 5 of the 13 runnings.


    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:


    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    3yo: 2-6-34
    4yo: 5-7-47
    5yo: 3-5-23
    6yo+: 0-2-7
    All 13 previous winners were aged 3 to 5
    Both 3yo winners since 2002 were trained in Europe and finished in first 3 in both English & Irish Oaks

    Recent/Past Form
    9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 114+ on one or both of last 2 starts
    10 of 10 winners had run 3 to 7 times that year
    9 of 10 winners ran in group 1 last time out
    8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time (two exceptions finished 4th & 5th in the Flower Bowl Invitational)
    10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 1F or 1M 2F
    8 of 10 winner had won a grade/group 1 (two exceptions were grade 2 winners that had placed in a grade 1)
    3 of 6 American-trained winners made their racecourse debut in France

    Other Races
    Nassau Stakes winner (The Fugue): 31712 (2-2-5)
    Previous year's Matriarch Stakes winner (Star Billing): 11 (2-0-2)
    Flower Bowl Invitational winner (Nahrain): 608031820 (1-2-9)
    Previous year's Diana Stakes winner (Zagora): 18436 (1-1-5)
    Musidora Stakes winner (The Fugue): 33 (0-2-2)
    Prix De L'Opera winner (Ridasiyna): 2 (0-1-1)
    Gallorette Handicap winner (Zagora): 38 (0-1-2)
    Balston Spa Stakes winner (Zagora): 63 (0-1-2)
    Rodeo Drive Stakes winner (Marketing Mix): 4878443586 (0-1-10)
    American Oaks winner (Lady Of Shamrock): 008 (0-0-3)
    Previous year's Mrs Revere Stakes winner (Marketing Mix): 685 (0-0-3)
    Beverly D. Stakes winner (I'm A Dreamer): 4476850 (0-0-7)
    3 of 10 winners ran in last season's race, finishing 032
    3 of 6 American-trained winners ran in Flower Bowl last time, finishing 415
    2 of 6 American-trained winners ran in the Diana Stakes, finishing 12 (2 others ran in it the previous year, finishing 15)
    2 of 6 American-trained winners ran in Just A Game Stakes, finishing 23
    2 of 6 American-trained winners ran in First Lady Stakes, finishing 11
    2 of 6 American-trained winners ran in previous year's Matriarch Stakes, finishing 11
    2 of 6 American-trained winners ran in previous year's QEII Challenge Cup, finishing 28
    2 of 6 American-trained winners ran in Canadian Stakes, finishing 32
    2 of 4 British-trained winners ran in Nassau Stakes, finishing 11
    2 of 2 British-trained 3yo winners ran in Irish Oaks, finishing 13
    2 of 2 British-trained 3yo winners ran in Epsom Oaks, finishing 12
    2 of 2 British-trained winners aged 4+ ran in Irish Champion Stakes last time, finishing 32
    2 of 2 British-trained winners aged 4+ ran in Prince Of Wales Stakes, finishing 31
    2 of 2 British-trained winners aged 4+ ran in Eclipse Stakes, finishing 65

    Trainers
    North American-trained runners: 6-12-76
    British-trained runners: 4-5-19
    Irish-trained runners: 0-3-10
    Japanese-trained runners: 0-0-1
    French-trained runners: 0-0-5
    European-trained horses (4-8-34) have won 4 of last 10 from approximately 30.6% of total runners.
    No trainer with an entrant has previously won this, though Todd Pletcher (0-3-5) & Aidan O’Brien (0-3-7) have each saddled 3 placed finishers in past 10 years.
    Roger Varian (0-1-1) & Thomas Proctor (0-1-1) have both trained a placed finisher in last 2 renewals.

    Price
    No very strong trends on the prices. There have been 5 double-figure priced winners, all have been trained in America.
    Favourites (4-3-10) have won 4 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 1.50.

    Summary:
    Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    Aged 4 or 5 (or a 3yo that placed in English and/or Irish Oaks)
    Run 3 to 7 times this year
    Finished in first 3 in grade/group 1 last time
    Won over 1M 1F or 1M 2F
    Won a grade/group 1
    Made racecourse debut in Europe
    Finished in first 5 in Flower Bowl Invitational, Diana or Just A Game Stakes
    Finished in first 3 in an Canadian, Prince Of Wales or Irish Champion Stakes
    Won the Nassau Stakes or 2011 Matriarch Stakes
    Trained in Great Britain or North America

    2 Thanks given to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (28th October 2012),  welshman443 (28th October 2012)  


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