The Paul Stewart IronSpine Charity Challenge Gold Cup (formerly sponsored by Boylesports and several others) takes place at Cheltenham on Saturday, 15th December. It is a grade 3 handicap chase, run over 2M 5F. Usually many horses that contested the Paddy Power Gold Cup in November run in this and 5 of the last 7 winners of this had made the frame in the Paddy Power Gold Cup on their previous start.

The race was not run in 2001 & 2008, so we look at trends for past 10 runnings (2000 to 2011):

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-3-8
6yo: 4-8-24
7yo: 4-5-35
8yo: 2-8-33
9yo: 0-2-27
10yo+: 0-0-17
6 and 7 year olds have the best records. Between them they have won 8 of the last 10 renewals from approximately 41% of the total runners.
Horses aged 9+ have gained no wins and just 2 places from 44 runners since 2000. You have to go back to 1993 for the last 9yo winner and 1974 for the last winner aged older than 9.

Breeding
French bred: 7-10-47
Irish bred: 3-14-61
British bred: 0-2-29
Other: 0-0-7
French bred horses have won 7 of last 10 runnings and they have represented just 30.5% of total runners. All French bred winners were aged 6 or 7.
Both 8yo winners were Irish bred.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-13 or more: 6-10-72
Horses carrying 10-12 or lower: 4-16-72
6 of 10 winners carried 10-13 or more & 4 of last 5 winners carried 11-4+
Record of top weight: 94P4P5PR9102 (1-1-12). Poquelin won the race in 2010 under top weight, though had a claimer taking 5lbs off.
4 of the 5 runners to carry a penalty have been placed (0-4-5)

Official Ratings
Horses rated 145 or higher: 5-11-65
Horses rated 144 or lower: 5-15-79
No huge bias on official ratings over the past 10 years, however if we focus on the past 5 renewals:
Horses rated 145 or higher: 5-8-41
Horses rated 144 or lower: 0-6-36

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had run 1 to 3 times that season
8 of 10 finished in the first 3 last time out
9 of 10 winners posted RPR of 144+ last time out
9 of 10 winners ran in past 45 days
10 of 10 winners had run in 6 to 14 chases prior to landing this
10 of 10 winners had previously won 2 to 4 times over fences
9 of 10 winners had run in 4 or less handicap chases (exception was Poquelin winning it for a 2nd time in 2010)
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases
10 of 10 winners were 2nd or 3rd season chasers
10 of 10 winners had won or placed in a graded chase
7 of 10 winners (last 7) had won or placed in a class 1 chase at Cheltenham

Other Races
Previous year's winner (Quantativeeasing): 01 (1-0-2)
BetVictor.com Handicap Chase winner (Nadiya De La Vega): 0P1 (1-0-3)
Pulteney Land Investments Novice Handicap Chase winner (Hunt Ball): 84U (0-1-3)
Manifesto Novice Chase winner (Menorah): 6 (0-0-1)
Pendil Novice Chase winner (Cristal Bonus): 6B (0-0-2)
Record of horses that won or placed in Paddy Power Gold Cup: 647021BP10PP561650U1 (4-1-20)
Record of horses that won or placed in Pulteney Investments Novice H'cap Chase: 3184U1 (2-2-6)
Record of highest placed finisher from Arkle Novice Chase: 1B19462 (2-2-7)
5 of 10 winners (5 of last 7) ran in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, finishing 31252
2 of 10 winners ran in Wayward Lad Novice Chase, finishing 1F
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase, finishing 37
2 of 2 Irish-trained winners ran in the Racing Post Novice Chase, finishing RU
2 of 2 Irish-trained winners ran in a graded novice chase at Punchestown Festival, finishing 26
8 of 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival (2 Grand Annual, 2 Arkle, 2 Pulteney Land Investments Nov H'cap Chase, 1 RSA, 1 Coral Cup & 1 Ryanair)
5 of 10 winners contested a chase at that year's Aintree Festival

Trainers
Nicky Henderson (3-0-10) has trained 3 of the last 10 winners of this.
Paul Nicholls (2-6-19) has saddled Poquelin to win the race in 2009 & 2010 and he has also trained a placed finisher in 5 of last 6 renewals.
David Pipe (1-2-13) & Philip Hobbs (1-1-7) have each saddled a winner & a placed finisher since 2000.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-3-11) has saddled 3 placed finishers from 11 runners.
Irish trained horses (2-2-20) have gained 2 wins and 2 places from 20 runners. Both winners were 8yo second season chasers that had run in a graded novice chase at the Punchestown Festival.

Price
7 of 10 winners were priced between 7/2 and 8/1, however 3 of last 6 winners were sent off 16/1 or bigger.
Favourites (1-2-10) don’t have a great record in this race. In 2009 Poquelin became the first winning favourite since 1996.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 renewals you are looking for a horse:
French bred aged 6 or 7, or an Irish bred aged 8
Carrying 10-13+
Officially rated 145+
Run 1 to 3 times this season
Finished in the first 3 last time & posted an RPR of 144+
Ran in the last 30 days
Run in 6 to 14 chases (winning 2 to 4)
Run in 4 or less handicap chases (winning no more than 2)
2nd or 3rd season chaser
Previously won or placed in a class 1 chase at Cheltenham
Won or placed in a graded chase
Finished in first 5 in Paddy Power Gold Cup
Ran in 2012 Arkle or Pulteney Land Investments Novice H'cap Chase
Trained by Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls, David Pipe or Philip Hobbs