day 1 cheltenham festival trends 2013

[ganjaman2]

1-30 Supreme Novices Hurdle

2-05 Arkle Challenge Trophy

2-40 Festival Handicap Chase

3-20 Champion Hurdle

4-00 Cross Country Handicap Chase

4-40 David Nicholson Mares Hurdle

5-15 Centenary Novice Chase


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CHAMPION HURDLE TRENDS 2013



The highlight of the first day of Cheltenham’s 4 day Festival, which kicks off on the 12th March, is the Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy, the big one for 2 mile hurdlers. Since 1998 nine winners have come from Ireland and Hurricane Fly will be looking to be only the second horse ever to regain the title after winning it in 2011 & finishing 3rd last year.


Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:


Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 1-5-28

6yo: 2-4-37

7yo: 4-5-32

8yo: 2-3-24

9yo: 1-2-9

10yo: 0-1-5

11yo+: 0-0-9

9 of 10 winners have been aged 6 to 9, they represented just over 70.8% of total runners.

The only 5yo winner in the past 25 years was Katchit in 2008, and Sizing Europe did look the likely winner of the race before losing his action between the final 2 flights.

Horses aged 10+ have record of 0-1-14 since 2003, the only winner aged 10+ in the last 50 years was Sea Pigeon in 1980/81.



Horses that ran well in this aged 5

Record of horses that had finished in first 5 as 5yos in following renewal:

In 1997 Theatreworld was 2nd as a 5yo and was 2nd in 1998

In 1997 I’m Supposin was 4th as a 5yo and was 3rd in 1998

In 2000 Hors La Loi was 2nd as a 5yo and won next running as a 7yo in 2002

In 2007 Afsoun was 3rd at as a 5yo and was 7th in 2008

In 2008 Katchit won it as a 5yo and finished 6th in 2009

In 2008 Punjabi finished 3rd as a 5yo and won it in 2009

In 2009 Celestial Halo finished 2nd as a 5yo and finished 4th in 2010

In 2009 Binocular finished 3rd as a 5yo and won it in 2010

In the past 15 years there have been eight runners in the Champion Hurdle that had finished in the first 5 as 5yos in the previous renewal, they finished 32176141 (3-2-8). Zarkandar qualifies this year.



Gender

All four mares (0-0-4) to run in the past 10 renewals have been unplaced. Since 2000 only Bilbao has made the frame when she finished 3rd in 2002. That year the first 2 in the betting went wrong during the race (Istabraq pulled up and Valiramix slipped up). It’s safe to say she would not have made the places had Valiramix completed.



Recent/Past Form

7 of 10 winners won last time out (exceptions finished 2nd or 3rd in grade 1 or 2)

8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 160+ last time

10 of 10 winners had run since Christmas

9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times that season

8 of 10 winners had run at least 10 times over hurdles (2 expcetions were 2nd season hurdlers that finished in first 4 in previous year's Supreme or Neptune)

10 of 10 winners were second, third or fourth season hurdlers

7 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 hurdle (Rooster Booster had won a grade 2, Sublimity had finished 4th in the previous season's Supreme Novices & Rock On Ruby had finished narrow 2nd in two grade 1's)

The 10 winners had collectively had 33 prior hurdles starts the year they won it. In the 32 they completed, they finished in first 3 in 30 of them.



Big Field Form

When looking at the form of the past 10 winners, it is noticeable that their recent form in bigger fields was superior to that of form in smaller fields when running in hurdles races over 2M to 2M 1F.

Last 10 winners’ combined last 4 runs in 2M-2M1F hurdles with 10+ runners: 25-7-34

Last 10 winners’ combined last 4 runs in 2M-2M1F hurdles with 9 or fewer runners: 17-9-35

The last 10 winners had finished in the first 4 on all of their last 4 starts in 2M-2M 1F hurdles with 10 or more runners.



Last year’s race

Rock On Ruby won last year’s Champion Hurdle by almost 4 lengths from Overturn and form of the race has worked out quite well. Runner-up Overturn has won both his starts since under NH rules (in chases), 3rd Hurricane Fly has won 4 grade 1’s from 4 starts since, while 5th Zarkandar has won both completed starts since (in grade 2’s) and 8th Zaidpour has also won a grade 1 since.

The combined subsequent hurdles record of all 10 runners is 7-2-20.

The form next time out of the 10 horses, to come out of the race and run under NH rules since, reads 3113F422 (2-0-8).



Cheltenham Festival Form

Defending Champion Hurdler (Rock On Ruby): R21324693 (1-4-9)

Triumph Hurdle winner (Countrywide Flame): 0F61235 (1-2-7)

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner (Cinders And Ashes): 035005 (0-1-6)

Highest placed finisher from previous Supreme Novices: 0635P0305 (0-2-9)

Highest placed finisher from previous Neptune Investments Novices' to run in this: 1621 (2-1-4)

4 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Champion Hurdle, finishing 1333

2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Neptune Investments Novice Hurdle, finishing 12

4 of 4 second season hurdlers finished in first 4 in a grade 1 novice hurdle at previous festival

5 of 10 winners had won a race at the Cheltenham Festival (4 others had finished in first 4 in Champion, Supreme or Neptune)

9 of 10 winners finished in first 4 over hurdles at previous Cheltenham Festival (exception was hurricane Fly in 2011 who might have won at previous 2 Festivals but for injury)

Hurricane Fly is looking to become only the second horse in Champion Hurdle history to regain the title. Comedy Of Errors did it 1975, after winning the race in 1973 and finishing 2nd in 1974.



Other races

Punchestown Champion Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 111613 (4-1-6)

Istabraq Festival Hurdle (Hurricane Fly): 7512061 (2-1-7)

Contenders Hurdle winner: 1006721 (2-1-7)

Irish Champion Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 0451400613 (2-1-10)

International Hurdle winner (Zarkandar): 18962325 (1-3-8)

Fighting Fifth Hurdle winner (Countrywide Flame): 525P01022 (1-3-9)

Hatton's Grace Hurdle winner (Zaidpour): 21 (1-1-2)

Morgiana Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 21F96 (1-1-5)

Anniversary Hurdle winner (Grumeti): 786135 (1-1-6)

Kingwell Hurdle winner: 386P1004 (1-1-8)

Follow Navan On Facebook Hurdle winner (Cause Of Causes): 1 (1-0-1)

Ascot hurdle winner (Oscar Whisky): 432 (0-2-3)

Previous season's Adonis Hurdle winner (Grumeti): F335 (0-2-4)

Champion Hurdle Trial winner (): 024379 (0-2-6)

Christmas Hurdle winner (Darlan): 5325004 (0-2-7)

Relkeel Hurdle winner (Oscar Whisky): 3 (0-1-1)

Betfair Hurdle (Haydock 19 Nov) winner (Balder Succes): 3 (0-1-1)

Punchestown Champion 4yo Hurdle winner (Hisaabaat): 380 (0-1-3)

Grimes Hurdle winner (Rebel Fitz): 48 (0-0-2)

Galway Hurdle winner (Rebel Fitz): 87 (0-0-2)

William Hill Priority Prices Handicap Hurdle winner (Raya Star): 07 (0-0-2)

Betfair Handicap Hurdle winner: P05 (0-0-3)

Elite Hurdle winner (Zarkandar): 9049 (0-0-4)

Aintree Hurdle winner (Oscar Whiskey): 4769 (0-0-4)

Top Novice hurdle winner (Darlan): 600P0 (0-0-5)

4 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle, finishing 1111

2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Aintree Hurdle, finishing 4F

4 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in Istabraq Festival Hurdle, finishing 7311

3 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in the Irish Champion Hurdle, finishing 311

2 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in Red Mills Trial Hurdle last time, finishing 21

3 of 5 British-trained winners ran in the Fighting Fifth, finishing 315

3 of 5 British-trained winners (last 3) ran in Christmas hurdle, finishing F32

2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in the Kingwell Hurdle last time, finishing 13

2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in the Contenders Hurdle last time, finishing 11

2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in the International Hurdle, finishing 12



Trainers

Irish trained runners (5-5-54) have won 5 of the last 10 runnings.

Nicky Henderson (2-5-13) has saddled 2 winners and 5 places from 13 runners in past 10 renewals.

Philip Hobbs (1-1-7), Paul Nicholls (1-1-8) and Willie Mullins (1-1-9) have each saddled the winner and a placed finisher since 2003. Alan King (1-0-5) is only other trainer with an entrant to have won this in past 10 years.

Donald McCain (0-2-4) has trained the runner-up in past 2 years while the Pipe Stable (0-2-7) has filled a couple of places in past 10 runnings.



Price

5 of the last 6 winners have been sent off between 9/1 and 22/1

Longer prices have done best in past 6 years with Hurricane Fly’s win at 11/4 the only recent winner priced shorter than 9/1.

Favourites (3-4-11) have taken just 3 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 2.25.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· Gelding aged 6 to 9

· Won last time out (or placed in grade 1 or 2)

· Posted an RPR of 160+ last time out

· Run 2 to 5 times this season

· 2nd season hurdler that finished in first 4 in a grade 1 at 2012 Festival or

· 3rd or 4th season hurdler

· Finished in first 4 on last 4 runs in 2M-2M 1F hurdles races with 10+ runners

· Previously won a grade 1 hurdle

· Finished in first 3 in 2012 Champion Hurdle or won another race at 2012 Festival

· Won the Punchestown Champion Hurdle

· Irish-trained that finished in first 3 in Irish Champion and/or Istabraq Festival Hurdle

· British-trained that finished in first 3 in Fighting Fifth, Inernational and/or Christmas Hurdle

· Ran in Kingwell, Contenders or Red Mills Trial Hurdle last time

· Trained by Nicky Henderson or in Ireland

[ganjaman2]

SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS 2013


The Cheltenham Festival kicks off on Tuesday 12th March with the William Hill Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, a grade 1 over 2M 110 yards. This race has been very good to the Irish in recent years with 8 of the last 14 winners being trained in Ireland.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 0-1-8

5yo: 4-13-92

6yo: 5-4-73

7yo: 1-1-20

8yo+: 0-1-4

No strong trends on ages, 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6, but those age groups represented 83.5% of the total runners. The last 2 winners aged older than 6 were trained in Ireland and owned by J P McManus.



Gender

Mares (0-1-7) have gained 1 place from 7 runners in last 10 years. Like A Butterfly in 2002 was last female winner, and both female hurdlers to make the frame since 2002 had won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle.



Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners ran in the past 55 days

8 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exceptions placed)

8 of 10 winners (last 5) posted an RPR of 137+ last time out

10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times over hurdles since August

10 of 10 winners won at least half their hurdle starts that season

9 of 10 winners had not finished worst that 3rd in completed hurdles races that season (exception was 4th in the grade 1 Christmas Hurdle)

6 of 10 winners had finished in the first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle

8 of 10 winners had won a bumper (other 2 were flat bred rated 86+ on the level)

2 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (6 others were having first course start & other two finished 5th & 2nd in previous Champion Bumper)



Other Races

Deloitte Novices Hurdle winner (Champagne Fever): 13 (1-1-2)

Halcyon Gallery British Stallion Studs EBF NH Novices' Hurdle winner (Minella Definitely): 31 (1-1-2)

Bathwick Tyres Plymouth Novices' Hurdle winner: 012 (1-1-3)

Pyments Quantity Surveyors EBF NH Novices' Hurdle winner (Melodic Rendezvous): 610U2 (1-1-5)

William Hill - No.1 Downloaded Betting App Novices' Hurdle winner (River Maigue): 419 (1-0-3)

Tolworth Hurdle winner (Melodic Rendezvous): 501 (1-0-3)

Visit betfair.com/racingoffers Novices' Hurdle winner (Chatterbox): 0P14 (1-0-4)

Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle winner (Mozoltov): 2803 (0-2-4)

Royal Bond Novice Hurdle winner (Jezki): 20037 (0-2-5)

EBF Connolly's Red Mills NH Novices' Hurdle winner (My Tent Or Yours): 2 (0-1-1)

Fishery Lane Hurdle winner (Jezki): 2 (0-1-1)

Lemington Maiden Hurdle winner (Court Minstrel): 3 (0-1-1)

Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle winner (Cause Of Causes): 3 (0-1-1)

Inkerman London NH Maiden Hurdle winner (Puffin Billy): 34 (0-1-2)

Previous season's "Future Champions" Flat Race winner (Don Cossack): 73 (0-1-2)

Betfair Hurdle winner (My Tent Or Yours): 25 (0-1-2)

Kennel Gate Novices' Hurdle winner (Puffin Billy): P92 (0-1-3)

Champion Bumper winner (Champagne Fever): 7534 (0-1-4)

Future Champions Novice Hurdle winner (Jezki): U0 (0-0-2)

Betfred Mobile Lotto Charity Introductory Hurdle winner (Chatterbox): 40 (0-0-2)

GL Events Owen Brown Novices' Hurdle winner (My Tent Or Yours): 0P (0-0-2)

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Irish Racing Writers Novice Hurdle winner (Un Atout): 550 (0-0-3)

Punchestown Champion Bumper winner (Champagne Fever): 650 (0-0-3)

Follow Navan On Facebook Hurdle winner (Cause Of Causes): 746 (0-0-3)

Bookmakers Bar At Bewleys Hotel Leopardstown Maiden Hurdle winner (Ned Buntline): 5000 (0-0-4)

Sharp Novices' Hurdle winner (Dodging Bullets): 90040 (0-0-5)

3 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in Cheltenham Champion Bumper, finishing 325

2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's November bumper at Cheltenham, finishing 12

2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in Visit betfair.com/racingoffers Novice Hurdle last time, finishing 31

2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in Pyments Quantity Surveyors EBF NH Novices' Hurdle, finishing 1F

2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in previous season's John Smith's Bumper, finishing 90



Trainers

Irish-trained horses (5-5-63) have taken 5 of the last 10 renewals, though the last 3 runnings have been won by the home team.

Paul Nicholls (2-1-12) has trained 2 of the last 7 winners.

Philip Hobbs (1-1-7), Noel Meade (1-1-9) and Donald McCain (1-0-2) have all saddled the winner in past 4 years.

Willie Mullins (1-0-14) trained the winner once since 2003 but his other 13 runners were all unplaced.

Nicky Henderson (0-7-15) has seen 7 of his 15 runners make the frame.



Price

Recent trend has been towards longer prices with 6 of the last 8 winners going off 10/1 or bigger, including a 40/1 winner.

Favourites (2-3-12) have won 2 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 1.50, though last 8 favourites have all been beaten.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· Won last time out in the past 55 days

· Posted an RPR of 137+ last time

· Run in 2 to 4 hurdles this season and won at least half those starts

· Never finished outside first 3 over hurdles

· Finished in the first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle

· Finished in first 5 in 2012 Champion Bumper

· Trained by Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs, Nicky Henderson or in Ireland

· Won a bumper or rated 86+ on the flat

[ganjaman2]

ARKLE TRENDS 2013


The second race on day 1 is the Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase, run over 2M for novice chasers. It has been won by some top class chasers since 2000 including 3 subsequent Champion Chase winners – Moscow Flyer, Azertyioup & Voy Por Ustedes and last year’s winner, Sprinter Sacre, will most likely make that 4 on day two of this year’s Festival.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 2-4-20

6yo: 2-3-29

7yo: 5-6-51

8yo: 1-6-23

9yo+: 0-0-7

5yos had a very strong record before 2008, as up to then they received a healthy weight allowance (5lbs in 2007) but since that has been scrapped there have been very few 5yo runners in this.

All 4 winners aged 5 or 6 were French or German bred.

In past 20 years only 2 horses aged over 7 have won this, both were Irish bred 8yos who had won a grade 1 two mile hurdle.



Gender

Mares (0-1-4) have gained 1 place from their 4 runners however the 3 unplaced finishers were all priced 14/1 or bigger whereas the one female to make the frame was Kruguyrova, who was sent off 9/1 fourth favourite.



Breeding

Irish Bred: 4-8-49

French Bred: 4-6-35

British Bred: 1-3-30

German Bred: 1-2-10

Other: 0-0-6

Not a whole lot in it on the breeding side, though Irish and French bred runners have taken the last 7 renewals.

4 of 5 winners bred in France or Germany were aged 5 or 6

All 5 winners bred in Ireland or Britain were aged 7 or 8



Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 153+ in last 2 starts

8 of 10 winners posted their best RPR over fences on their last start

9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 on all chase runs

9 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 5 chases

7 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase (2 exceptions had yet to run in a graded chase and other had finished runner-up 3 times in grade 1 chases)

10 of 10 winners had run in 4 to 13 hurdles races (7 contested a novice hurdle the previous season)

9 of 10 winners were officially rated 140+ over hurdles

9 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 a grade 1 or 2 hurdle

6 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (3 exceptions had run here once, finishing 2nd in Triumph, 3rd Supreme & 4th in Neptune. Other was having first course start)



Other Races

Henry VIII Novice Chase winner (Captain Conan): 2F172924 (1-3-8)

Kingmaker Novice Chase winner (Majala): U1262 (1-2-5)

Craddockstown winner (Twinlight): 013 (1-1-3)

SIS Live Novices' Chase winner (Cantlow): 124 (1-1-3)

Wayward Lad Novice Chase winner (Simonsig): 835P51 (1-1-6)

Racing Post Novice Chase winner (Arvika Ligeonniere): U669135 (1-1-7)

November Novice Chase winner (Captain Conan): 1FF26F54 (1-1-8)

Punchestown For Events Beginners Chase winner (Arvika Ligeonniere): 1 (1-0-1)

Previous Mersey Novices' Hurdle winner (Simonsig): 1 (1-0-1)

Buck House Novice Chase winner (Baily Green): 01 (1-0-2)

Book New Years Eve Panoramic Restaurant Beg Chase winner (Oscars Well): 41 (1-0-2)

Halloween Trophy winner (Module): 26352 (0-3-5)

Irish Arkle winner (Benefficient): 206403 (0-2-6)

Betfred Double Delight Novices' Chase winner (Fago): 2 (0-1-1)

Scottish Future Champions Novices' Chase winner (Viva Colonia): 2 (0-1-1)

ATR Novices' Chase winner (Salden Licht): U2 (0-1-2)

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Chase winner (Oscars Well): 436 (0-1-3)

Blue Square Bet Novices' Chase winner (Majala): 489 (0-0-3)

3 of 8 British-trained winners ran in November Novice Chase, finishing 122

2 of 8 British-trained winners ran in Henry VIII Novice chase, finishing 12

2 of 2 Irish-trained winners finished in first 2 in a grade 1 chase at Leopardstown (Irish Arkle or Racing Post Novice Chase)

Last 5 Irish-trained winners had finished in first 2 in Irish Arkle and/or Racing Post Novice Chase

5 of 10 winners finished in first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle at previous Cheltenham Festival (2 Neptune, Supreme, Triumph & World Hurdle)



Trainers

Alan King (2-0-5) has trained backed to back winners in 2006 & 2007.

Nicky Henderson (1-3-8) trained Sprinter Sacre to win this last year and half his runners since 2003 have made the frame.

Paul Nicholls (1-2-16) trained the winner in 2003 but since then his 13 runners have produced no winners and just 2 places.

Colin Tizzard (0-1-1) & Tom Taaffe (0-1-1) have both seen their one runner finish 2nd.

Irish trained runners (2-3-35) have an average record in the race, producing 2 winners from approximately 27% of the total runners, though they been responsible for 2 of the past 4 winners.

This has not been a happy race for the biggest Irish trainer, Willie Mullins (0-0-7). He has never won it and in past 10 years all 7 of his runners finished out of the frame. Jessica Harrington (0-0-3) trained Moscow Flyer to win it in 2002 but her 3 runners since then have all been unplaced.



Price

10 of 10 winners have come from the first 5 in the betting

All 10 winners went off at single figure odds, so clearly market principals should be focused on, but it has not been a great race for the favourite.

Favourites (2-2-10) have taken just 2 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 6.03.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· French bred aged 5 or 6, or Irish bred aged 7 or 8

· Run in 3 to 5 chases & never finished out of the first 2

· Posted an RPR of 153+ on last 2 starts

· Won a grade 1 or 2 chase

· Finished in first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle

· Run in 4 to 13 hurdles & officially rated 140+ over hurdles

· Course winner or placed in a hurdle at the Festival (or having first start here)

· Finished in first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle at 2012 Cheltenham Festival

· Trained by Alan King or Nicky Henderson

· In the first 5 in the betting, no bigger than 9/1

[ganjaman2]

JLT SPECIALTY HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS 2013



The JLT Specialty Handicap Chase (formerly the William Hill Trophy) is a grade 3 handicap chase run over 3 miles and half a furlong. It’s the third race run on the opening day of the Festival and there are plenty of important trends that should be taken note of before having a bet in this race.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 0-2-12

7yo: 3-8-28

8yo: 3-3-42

9yo: 2-11-48

10yo: 2-4-28

11yo+: 0-0-32

10 of 10 winners were aged 6 to 10 and they have also filled all 38 places

Horses aged 11+ should be avoided seeing as they have failed to fill a single placed from 32 runners in the past 10 renewals.



Breeding

Irish bred: 8-11-98

French bred: 1-10-46

British bred: 1-6-35

Other: 0-1-11

Irish bred horses have won 8 of last 10 from approximately 51.5% of total runners.



Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 11-0 or more: 1-14-67

Horses carrying 10-5 to 10-13: 7-11-84

Horses carrying 10-4 or lower: 2-3-39

7 of 10 winners carried 10-5 to 10-13 and so are heavily favoured.

Top Weight: UP23P0787597 (0-2-12)



Official Ratings

Horses rated 144 or higher: 0-12-61

Horses rated 130 to 143: 8-16-112

Horses rated 129 or below: 2-0-17

All 10 winners were officially rated 129 to 143, 4 of last 5 winners were rated 142 or 143.



Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out (6 won)

8 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 134+ on last chase start

8 of 10 winners were 1st or 2nd season chasers (both exceptions were 3rd season chasers)

10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or better chase

10 of 10 winners had gained 1 to 5 wins over fences

10 of 10 winners had won over 3M+

9 of 10 winners had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases in GB & Ire

9 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases

8 of 10 winners had won or placed in a hurdle or chase worth 39K+

9 of 10 winners had run in a class 2 or graded race over 2m6f+ at Cheltenham

3 of 10 winners (last 3) had run over hurdles in late January or February



Other Races

Previous year's winner (Alfie Sherrin): F (0-0-1)

Thyestes Chase winner (Jadanli): 1 (1-0-1)

32Red Casino Veterans' Handicap Chase winner (Monkerty Tunkerty): 1 (1-0-1)

Henrietta Knight Handicap Chase winner (Monbeg Dude): 2 (0-1-1)

Shloer Novice Chase winner (Super Duty): 3 (0-1-1)

Kim Muir winner (Sunnyhillboy): 20 (0-1-2)

BetVictor.com Handicap Chase winner (Nadiya De La Vega): 75 (0-0-2)

Masters Handicap Chase winner (On Trends): P9 (0-0-2)

Racing Plus Chase winner (Opening Batsman): PP (0-0-2)

2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in that season's Cleeve Hurdle, finishing 05

2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Grand National, finishing B7

2 of 2 novice winners were placed in a 3M Exeter Novices' Chase in November

2 of 10 winners ran in the United House Gold Cup, finishing 7P



Trainers

Alan King (2-1-9) and Jonjo O’Neill (2-1-11) have each saddled 2 winners since 2003.

David Pipe (1-2-9) and Ferdy Murphy (1-1-7) have also both trained 1 of last 10 winners.

Nicky Henderson (0-5-11) trained the winner in 2000 and has seen 5 of his 11 runners get placed in past 10 runnings.

Paul Nicholls (0-3-11) has gained 3 places from 11 runners while Donald McCain (0-1-2) and Gary Moore (0-1-3) each saddled a placed finisher last year.

Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-1-15) and Venetia Williams (0-1-9) have managed just 2 places from their collective 24 runners since 2003.

There had been no Irish trained (2-1-15) winner for 38 years before Youlneverwalkalone won it in 2003 but the Irish have landed 2 of the 10 renewals from about 8% of the total runners. Both Irish winners had finished in first 3 in a handicap chase in Britain earlier that season.



Price

7 of 10 winners were priced between 5/1 and 8/1

The market principals have done well in this, with 22 of 38 places being filled by horses priced 11/1 or lower however there have been 2 big shocks in the last 6 years, with a 50/1 winner in 2007 and a 33/1 in 2010.

Favourites (1-5-14) have a poor record in the race having won just 1 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 4.00.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· Aged 6 to 10

· Irish bred

· Carrying 10-5 to 10-13

· Officially rated 129 to 143 (especially 139-143)

· Finished in first 3 last time out (ideally won)

· Posted an RPR of 134+ last time

· Won over 3M+

· First or second season chaser

· Won 2 to 5 times over fences

· Won a class 3 or better handicap chase

· Won or placed in a NH race worth 39K+

· Run in 7 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 2)

· Priced 11/1 or below

· Trained by Alan King, Nicky Henderson, Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe or in Ireland

[ganjaman2]

CROSS COUNTRY CHASE TRENDS 2013




The Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Steeple Chase is another of the newer races, having been introduced in 2005. Philip Hobbs became the first non-Irish trainer to win it last year after the first 7 runnings were all won by the raiding team with, 4 of those 7 going to Enda Bolger, who is a specialist in these kinds of races.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 8 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 0-0-1

7yo: 0-0-3

8yo: 1-4-18

9yo: 2-1-22

10yo: 2-4-28

11yo: 0-6-24

12yo: 3-3-18

13yo+: 0-5-13

Ages of the winners is spread out amongst those aged 8 to 12 however younger horses have done better recently.

In past 6 years:

Horses aged 8 to 10: 5-7-50

Horses aged 11 or older: 1-10-41

In past 6 years 5 of the 6 winners were aged 8 to 10 and 8 of the last 11 horses aged 11+ to make the frame had won or placed in the race before.



Weight

Horses carrying 10-8 or more: 6-12-59

Horses carrying less than 10-8: 2-11-68

Horses racing from out of the handicap: 1-1-18

Top weight: 12491528 (2-3-8) does well, having gained 2 wins and 3 places from 8 runs.



Official Ratings

Horses rated 140 or higher: 3-7-25

Horses rated 126 to 139: 5-11-71

Horses rated 125 or lower: 0-5-31

Higher rated horses have fared best recently, with the 10 of 11 places being filled by horses rated 135+ in past 3 renewals (including all 3 winners).



Recent/Past Form

5 of 8 winners won on their last run over fences

6 of 8 winners had run in past 40 days (2 exceptions had last run in cross country race at Cheltenham December meeting)

7 of 8 winners had run 2 to 5 times that season

8 of 8 winners had run 11+ times over fences

7 of 8 winners had run in no more than 11 handicap chases

7 of 8 winners had won over 3M+ (exception won over 2M 6F & been placed in 3 of 4 runs over CD)

5 of 8 winners had won or placed over this CD (1 exception was having first start and other 2 failed to complete on only run on the Cross Country course)

5 of 8 winners had run over hurdles that season (2 of 3 exceptions had won a point to point)



Other Races

Defending Cross Country Handicap Chase winner (Balthazar King): 2091534 (1-3-7)

Hogan Memorial Cross Country Chase winner (Arabella Boy): 1113420 (3-3-7)

Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase winner (Outlaw Pete): 1461P (2-1-5)

Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase winner (Uncle Junior): 124558 (1-2-6)

Ryman The Stationer Handicap Chase winner (Balthazar King): 1 (1-0-1)

Irish Field Chase winner (Outlaw Pete): 160 (1-0-3)

La Touche Cup winner (Uncle Junior): 165P (1-0-4)

Risk Of Thunder Chase winner (Arabella Boy): 9P23P (0-2-5)

F.J. Chalke Desert Orchid Handicap Chase winner (Any Currency): U9P (0-0-3)

6 of 8 winners had run in the Glenfarclas Handicap Chase in December, finishing 13F17RO

3 of 8 winners ran in the Hogan Memorial Cross Country Chase, finishing 111

3 of 8 winners had run in the Glenfarclas Chase in November, finishing 123

2 of 8 winners ran in the La Touche Cup, finishing 14

5 of 8 winners ran in a chase at previous Cheltenham Festival (3 Cross Country, 1 4M NH novice Chase & 1 Foxhunters)



Trainers

Enda Bolger (4-8-22) dominated this race in its early days, winning 4 of the first 5 runnings, however he has filled just 2 places from 9 runners in last 3 years.

Michael Hourigan (1-4-6) saddled A New Story to win in 2010 & be placed in 2008, 2009, 2011 & 2012.

Henry De Bromhead (1-1-3) trained Sizing Australia to win it in 2011 and get placed last year.

Philip Rothwell (1-1-4) has gained a win and a place with Native Jack in the race.

Philip Hobbs (1-1-7) trained Balthazar King to win last year and also saddled the 3rd in 2010.

Irish trainers (7-15-60) have won 7 of 8 runnings & filled 77% of the places from approximately 47.2% of the total runners, which compares very well to British trainers (1-6-66).



Jockeys

Obviously whoever Enda Bolger books on his horses have the best chance of winning this. Nina Carbery (3-2-7) and J T McNamara (1-4-8) generally get to ride Bolger’s first and second strings.

Adrian Heskin (1-2-3), Andrew Lynch (1-1-3), Davy Russell (1-1-6) & Richard Johnson (1-0-4) are the other 4 jockeys to have ridden the winner of this. Davy Russell does ride this course particularly well.

Andrew MacNamara (0-2-2) and Jason Maguire (0-2-2) have been both made the places on their two rides in this race.



Price

7 of 8 winners were priced 13/2 or below and came from the first 3 in the betting

The 2010 winner, A New Story, was the first longshot to win this though 16 of the 31 places have been filled by horses priced 12/1 or bigger.

Favourites (2-1-8) have won 2 of the 8 runnings giving a level stakes return of 0.00.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 8 years you are looking for a horse:

· Aged 8 to 10 (or aged 11+ that has won/placed in the race before)

· Carrying 10-8 or more

· Officially rated 135+

· Won last chase start

· Had 2 to 5 runs this season

· Had run in past 40 days (or had last run in Cross Country race at November meeting)

· Run at least 11 times over fences

· Run in no more than 11 handicap chases

· Won over 3M+

· Run over hurdles (or won a point to point) this season

· Won or placed in Cross Country Chases at November/December meetings

· Won Hogan Memorial Cross Country Chase

· Ran in a chase at last year's Festival

· Trained in Ireland

· Ridden by Nina Carberry, J T McNamara, Andrew Lynch or Davy Russell

· From first 3 in the betting

[ganjaman2]

PULTENEY LAND INVESTMENTS NOVICE H'CAP CHASE TRENDS 2013




The Pulteney Land Investments Novices´ Handicap Chase was first run in 2005 and it is run over an intermediate distance of 2M 4½F. Prior to 2011 it was run on the new course with no upper limit on ratings but now it’s run on the old course for horses rated 0-140, so some trends will have less relevance.


Below we take a look at the trends for the past 8 years:


Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 1-1-15

6yo: 0-8-26

7yo: 6-5-65

8yo: 1-5-33

9yo: 0-4-13

10yo+: 0-1-4

7 year olds have won all 6 of the 8 runnings from approximately 41.7% of the total runners.



Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 11-4 or more: 2-8-57

Horses carrying 10-10 to 11-3: 5-12-67

Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 1-4-32

The last 7 winners carried between 10-11 or more though with the race now limited to horses rated 140 or less, it’s highly likely all runners will have at least 10-11. In past 2 years all 8 places were filled by horses carrying 11-4 or more.

Top weight: 507708P1 (1-0-8)

Horses carrying a penalty: 670502P6 (0-1-8)



Official Ratings (ratings now capped to 0-140)

Horses rated 138 or higher: 2-9-63

Horses rated 130 to 137: 5-14-80

Horses rated 129 or lower: 1-1-13

Horses officially rated 132 or higher won the last 7 renewals and filled 23 of 32 places, though conditions of this race changed in 2011 as now only horses rated 140 or less are eligible to run in this, so previous official rating figures have less relevance.



Recent/Past Form

8 of 8 winners finished in the first 2 last time out

6 of 8 winners posted a career high RPR of 136+ last time out

7 of 8 winners finished in first 3 on all completed starts over fences that season (exception finished in first three in 3 of 4 chase starts)

6 of 8 winners were having their first run in a handicap chase

8 of 8 winners had run 3 to 7 times over fences that season

5 of 8 winners had won just 1 chase

8 of 8 winners had their last run in past 60 days

7 of 8 winners had won over 2M 4F+ (exception had not run over further than 2M 2F)

4 of 8 winners ran in a hurdle race at the previous year's Festival

6 of 8 winners were officially rated 125+ over hurdles

6 of 8 winners had run no more than 7 times over hurdles

4 of 8 winners had been placed in a graded/listed hurdle



Other Races

Huntingdon Racecourse Novices' Chase winner (Tetlami): F3 (0-1-2)

Harry Dutfield Memorial Novices' Chase winner (Chartreux): F8 (0-0-2)

Constant Security Novices' Chase winner (Yurok): 70 (0-0-2)

2 of 8 winners ran in Jack Fletcher Beginners' Chase, finishing F3

2 of 8 winners had won a 2M 5F chase at Folkestone



Trainers

Philip Hobbs (1-1-8) & Paul Nicholls (1-0-15) have each trained the winner in past 4 years.

Nicky Henderson (0-5-17) and Jonjo O’Neill (0-2-6) have each gained multiple places from their runners.

Noel Chance (0-1-1), Willie Mullins (0-1-1), Mouse Morris (0-1-1), Seamus Mullins (0-1-1) and Tony Martin (0-1-1) have each seen their one runner make the frame, while Dessie Hughes (0-1-2) saddled White Star Line (entered again) to finish 2nd last year.

Irish trained runners (1-6-25) don’t have a bad record, winning one and 12 of their 25 runners making the first 6.



Price

7 of 8 winners came from the first 5 in the betting

Favourites (2-0-8) have won 2 of the 8 runnings giving a level stakes profit of 5.00.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 7 years you are looking for a horse:

· Aged 7

· Carrying 11-4 or more

· Officially rated 132 or higher

· Finished in first 2 last time (posting an RPR of 136+)

· Run in 3 to 7 chases this season

· Never out of first 3 on all completed chase starts this season

· Having first run in a handicap chase

· Won over 2M 4F or further

· Officially rated 125 or higher over hurdles

· From the first 5 in the betting