The Betfred Bowl Steeplechase is one of four grade 1 races featuring on the opening day of the 2013 Aintree Festival, which kicks off on Thursday 4th April. The 3M 1F chase was upgraded to grade 1 status in 2010 and so will attract a good few of this year’s Gold Cup protagonists. In the last 5 years, Kauto Star, Denman, Imperial Commander & Denman, again, have all been beaten in this after running well in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. It can often pay to oppose horses that had a hard race at Cheltenham, last 3 winners of this all skipped Cheltenham.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-1-2
7yo: 2-5-11
8yo: 2-4-19
9yo: 1-2-15
10yo: 3-1-13
11yo+: 2-1-11
12yo+: 0-1-3
The last 7 winners were aged 7 to 10, 4 were aged 7 or 8 and the 3 winners aged 9 or 10 had all finished in first 3 in previous year’s Betfred Bowl Chase.
All 5 winners aged 10+ had run in either the Gold Cup or King George (or both) that season.
Gender
The two mares (0-2-2) to run in this race in past 10 years have both finished 2nd.
Breeding
French Bred: 4-8-23
Irish Bred: 4-4-32
British Bred: 2-3-17
German Bred: 0-0-2
No very strong trend on breeding.
Recent/Past Form
5 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 last time (4 exceptions unplaced in Gold Cup)
9 of 10 winners had posted an RPR of 162+ in last 2 completed chase starts
10 of 10 winners had won at least 4 chases
9 of 10 winners had run in 10 or more chases in their career
9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (exception having first try at 3M+)
10 of 10 winners had won a graded chase
5 of 10 winners had won a grade 1
7 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a grade 1 chase that season
Only 1 of past 10 winners had previously won at Aintree, so course form is not vital.
Other races
Argento Chase winner (Cape Tribulation): 161 (2-0-3)
Charlie Hall Chase winner (Silviniaco Conti): 51531 (2-0-5)
Denman Chase winner (Silviniaco Conti): 41 (1-0-2)
Betfair Chase winner (Silviniaco Conti): 25 (0-1-2)
Highest placed finisher from King George to run in this: 5124123315 (3-3-10)
Highest placed finisher from Gold Cup: 42P312FF52 (1-4-10) 8 of these 10 were sent off favourite
5 of 10 winners ran in Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing P5U26 (last 3 winners bypassed Cheltenham)
4 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishing 2224
3 of 10 winners ran in the Lexus, finishing 716
3 of 10 winners ran in the Argento Chase, finishing 112
3 of 10 winners (3 of last 5) ran in previous season's Aintree Bowl, finishing 333
2 of 10 winners ran in the John Durkan, finishing 32
2 of 10 winners ran in the Charlie Hall Chase, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 4) ran in the Hennessy Gold Cup, finishing 13
Trainers
Paul Nicholls (1-2-11) won the race in 2010 but he’s not had much luck in it other than that win. He’s saddled 4 beaten favourite in past 10 years (all 4 were sent off shorter than 6/4).
Oliver McKiernan (1-0-2) has trained Follow The Plan to finish 3rd & 1st in past 2 renewals.
Irish-trained runners (1-0-8) in 2002 & 2012, both winners had finished 4th in Irish Hennessy that season.
Price
Only 1 of 10 favourites have won this since 2003
It has paid to oppose the favourites in this race, with just one winning in the past 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 7.50.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 7 or 8 (or finished in first 3 in this race previously)
· Had at least 10 career chase starts (won at least 4)
· Finished in the first 3 in a graded chase last time or unplaced in Gold Cup
· Posted an RPR of 162+ in one or both of last 2 chase starts
· Won over 3M+
· Won a graded chase (ideally a grade 1)
· Unplaced in Gold Cup or bypassed Cheltenham
· Finished the first 4 in King George this season
· Finished in first 3 in Argento, Charlie Hall and/or Hennessy Gold Cup
· Favourite has a poor record
Social Networking Bookmarks